Ok, it's a good and thorough report that proves that the French government is taking the PO issue seriously.
However, I find this report is very optimistic and put the PO date at least in 2012 in the worst case scenario (no new discoveries and demand growth of 3% per year, see table page 9 below):
"Taux de croissance des besoins"= demand growth rate
"Découvertes annuelles"= new discovery per year
If we want to compensate for depletion (3% per year) and increasing demand we need to put online 22-25 Gb (already discovered) every year until 2010:
Quote:
we see that already available reserves in 2005 (i.e. 1080 Gb) are superior to the world need for the period 2005-2030 estimated to be 984Gb (based on a 2%/year demand growth). However, it won't be enough to satisfy demand beyond 2013 because of limitations and constraints in oil recovery (depletion): only 695Gb of the 1080Gb can be exploited: 695Gb= 190Gb (fields already discovered but not exploited) + 505Gb (fields currently exploited)
Solution: new discoveries (in red, production from new fields to be dicovered after 2005, in light green: production from fields already discovered but not exploited yet, in dark green: current production, blue: projected demand)
They believe we can discover 20Gb of new reserves each year until 2030 wich puts the peak in 2023 at 113Mbd. The investment required is estimated to be about 250 G$ each year!
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