Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Huseini

alokin · **Joined:** Fri Aug 24, 2007 12:00 am **Posts:** 1213

Statements like this are more likely to be political ones than scientifically. You don't have to think: which model did he use or
if he's right or wrong. Rather than thinking "what does the guy wants to tell" not you and me but maybe political leaders or managers.

ohanian · **Joined:** Sun Oct 17, 2004 12:00 am **Posts:** 1176

billp wrote:

Quote:

You are confusing production deceleration with production rate.

You may be right.

Please check if my differentiatons of the normal distribution are correct or not.

My senior citizen math buddies not of much help. What's his name's disease?

best

And, what do you think is going to happen?
http://www.prosefights.org/nmlegal/dcvo ... m#gabreski

From your website:

dy/dx = y' = 1/(σ(2π)(1/2) )e- ½((x -µ)/σ)2d(- ½((x -µ)/σ)2)/dx

= 1/(σ(2π)(1/2) )e- ½((x -µ)/σ)2-((x -µ)/σ2)

= -y ((x -µ)/σ2)

I think that is correct.

I think I found your mistake.

Your website says "The second derivative of the normal distribution is zero. This occurs at µ - σ. "

It should say "The first derivative of the normal distribution is zero. This occurs when x = µ " . You can check by substituting x with µ below

dy/dx = -y ((x - µ)/σ2)

The time "x = µ" is the peak oil time. Remember that x is (time) and y is (production per day).

Better still, replace x with t and y with P

And if you believe that peak oil occurs at 2006 then replace µ with 2006

KevO · **Joined:** Tue May 24, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 2541

Saudi Aramco Insider: Oil Structural Ceiling Reached
http://seekingalpha.com/article/52160-s ... ng-reached

emailking · **Joined:** Sat Mar 11, 2006 1:00 am **Posts:** 771

You guys shouldn't be doing derivative calculations with a normal distrubtion, because the theoretical curve is not a normal distribution. It just looks like one. It's more like y = A/(1-Be^(-Cx)) or something like that I believe. I worked it out a year ago.

ohanian wrote:

billp wrote:

Quote:

You are confusing production deceleration with production rate.

You may be right.

Please check if my differentiatons of the normal distribution are correct or not.

My senior citizen math buddies not of much help. What's his name's disease?

best

And, what do you think is going to happen?
http://www.prosefights.org/nmlegal/dcvo ... m#gabreski

From your website:

dy/dx = y' = 1/(σ(2π)(1/2) )e- ½((x -µ)/σ)2d(- ½((x -µ)/σ)2)/dx

= 1/(σ(2π)(1/2) )e- ½((x -µ)/σ)2-((x -µ)/σ2)

= -y ((x -µ)/σ2)

I think that is correct.

I think I found your mistake.

Your website says "The second derivative of the normal distribution is zero. This occurs at µ - σ. "

It should say "The first derivative of the normal distribution is zero. This occurs when x = µ " . You can check by substituting x with µ below

dy/dx = -y ((x - µ)/σ2)

The time "x = µ" is the peak oil time. Remember that x is (time) and y is (production per day).

Better still, replace x with t and y with P

And if you believe that peak oil occurs at 2006 then replace µ with 2006

thor · **Posted:** Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:58 pm

aflurry wrote:

if by "dark connection" you mean that the curve could be predictive even though the connection is what i have been calling "coincidental." i'll buy it, at least until i hear a good argument against it.

By "dark connection" I meant the various occurances of the Gaussian curve in science and engineering. Like the number PI, which keeps popping up everywhere. Quite spooky indeed.

Starvid · **Posted:** Wed Oct 31, 2007 7:44 pm

More....

Quote:

Record oil prices are due to strong demand rather than speculative money flows, according to the chief executive of Total, the French oil giant. Speaking on the sidelines of a conference, Christophe de Margerie: said "It's not speculation - it is the result of strong demand."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071031/bs_ ... 1604581225

And more...
[web]http://www.ft.com/cms/s/b0d83bfa-87df-11dc-9464-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fb0d83bfa-87df-11dc-9464-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Feurope[/web]

And even more...

Quote:

Andrew Gould, the chairman and chief executive of Schlumberger Ltd., an oil-services company, expressed similar concerns, noting that 70% of the oil fields that now quench world demand are more than 30 years old. The growth in global demand since 2003, he said, has been roughly the equivalent of the daily output from two of the world's larger suppliers: the North Sea and Mexico.

"Our industry simply cannot cope with these kinds of increases," Mr. Gould told the assembly.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=52253

thor · **Posted:** Thu Nov 01, 2007 12:52 pm

For all practical purposes PO has arrived and big guns in industry are admitting it one by one. I would call this a positive development. Now these companies should act and use their dirty wealth to introduce alternatives.

Oil production has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Huseini

Who is online