Actually I am thinking Venezuela, Algeria, Libya, Yemen, or Nigeria. The land export model could double or triple the price of oil in a hurry. This could snowball in a hurry.

Note the wording.

Refined products.

Kazakhstan will happily continue to export a million barrels of crude oil a day at the kind of prices we see now, but it appears that all the finished fuel they produce themselves (and as the case may be, import) may not be leaving the country. They are in effect saying, you can have our crude oil, but you cannot use our refineries. This has a ring of pragmatism about it. Crude oil is not so important to their agricultural sector, diesel fuel is. They may have a case for taking measures to ensure domestic demand is satisfied first, without having to compete with the export market.

This is an interesting development, because it can be copied by energy exporting countries suffering a relative shortage of refinery capacity without fatally compromising export revenues or giving the appearance of an embargo. It could also reap a domestic political dividend, which could be in great need as costs of living soar. Foremost of the large nations that might find such a move appealing is Nigeria, which has long experienced chronic fuel shortages and resulting unrest while being a major energy exporter in the form of crude oil and LNG.

Countries such as the UK, which is an oil importer but runs a surplus of refinery capacity for export, could be laughing if prices of finished petroleum products were to rise without backfiring. Countries which import the balance of their needs would doubtless find such a move less amusing if it came to be copied as widely as the food export bans earlier this year.

I do not watch petrol, diesel and fuel oil flows, but this news suggests global export land effects could be felt there first.

"Very nice, how much?"

UPDATE 1-Kazakhstan suspends exports of oil products | Markets ...



I think it's the whole shebang.

Time for Kazakhstan to be liberated. I heard there are a lot of terrorists there, and Borat is one of their leaders. Soldiers will be welcomed with flowers and candies.

Just invade and put two Air Force bases there. The world will be a better place. After all, why have the greatest army in the world if you can't use it for the good of mankind?

According to the EIA:





Source: EIA

More data here.

The export restriction indicated would be limited to refinery output. If their capacity is 345 kb/d and consumption is 250 kb/d, that sounds like 95 kb/d of refined products removed from the export market. That still leaves 1.1 mb/d of crude oil they can neither refine nor consume, which they will carry on exporting unless we hear otherwise.

This is an interesting news snippet, but the thread title is off the mark.

Heating oil at $4.50? Sounds awful cheap to me...the folks up your way need to try on $7.50, $ 8.00 on for size. Let's see how that works...especially in a severe, late-70's style winter, which should come any year now.

Do you think this will spark a great exodus out of the northeastern states? Combine that with the ongoing exodus out of Florida and southern California, one might think some places are going to get real crowded...

I keep on telling my neighbors, "I here Georgia is real nice. Light winters, friendly people. I hear that the fishing is real good. You should go check out Georgia."

Georgia is already maxed out in its' water usage. Tennessee valley would probably be better due to lower population densities. A bit further North so it is not so bloody hot in the summer but they still get mild winters.

Shhhh! The neighbors might hear you. Now smile they are getting suspicious

"Every thing is fine here. Go along with your business."

Eh, they're going to be producing less now as well:

UPDATE 1-Kazakhstan cuts 2008 oil output forecast | Markets | Reuters



"Great success!"

From RIA Novosti



SOMEONE is going to be running on a lower tank due to this. Anyone know where this stuff mainly goes to?

Well, everyone has to do maintenance. They can cut crude exports by 50 kb/d, but the real story is in the refined products, because a 100 kb/d cut of that is going to hurt someone more and sets a more pointed example.


Mostly Russia, which means they would have less product to re-export. The end user is no-one in particular.