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 Post subject: Hot summer could bring power outages, price spikes
New postPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2005 8:49 pm 
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They're predicting this summer will be unusually hot, which may lead to blackouts and high prices:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8063259/


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2005 10:24 pm 
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Aren't all summers from here on out going to be "unusually" hot? Global warming sucks. Especially in Texas. :(


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:59 pm 
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RG73 wrote:
Aren't all summers from here on out going to be "unusually" hot? Global warming sucks. Especially in Texas. :(


Well you don't have to worry about hot summers any longer - if you're a european. So what comes first, peak oil or this? the bets are on

from
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_i ... D=10328565
is
Powerful ocean currents are grinding slowly to a halt, raising the possibility of a catastrophic climate "flip" that could chill Europe and warm New Zealand, startling new evidence suggests.

Scientists have detected evidence of a slowdown in the ocean currents that control climate worldwide, supporting earlier research on the threats of global warming.
Without these currents, parts of the globe are expected to alter dramatically. The climate in Europe would cool significantly, while New Zealand would be warmer and more susceptible to exotic diseases, scientists suggest.

The powerful ocean current system, often known as the ocean conveyor, creates a flow of warm surface water towards the North Atlantic, where it is cooled and sinks to start the circulation of cool deep-sea water throughout the world's oceans.

As part of this process, large "chimneys" of very cold water spiral to the ocean floor, playing a key role in ocean flows.

But Cambridge University ocean physicist and Polar Ocean Physics Group head Professor Peter Wadhams has released research showing the number of these chimneys has declined from about 12 to two as a result of global warming.

Releasing the research to a meeting of the European Geosciences Union in Vienna last month, Professor Wadhams said the disappearance of the chimneys, reducing the circulation of the oceans, would cool the climate of Northern Europe as less warm water flowed to the region.

Other oceanographers have stressed that Professor Wadhams' findings are only one piece of a complex puzzle.

Terrence Joyce, senior scientist in the department of physical oceanography at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, United States, has warned that it is important not to be alarmist, but instead to keep up a wide array of research.

For a dramatic climate change to take place, "a whole bunch of pieces have to fit together", he said. "Certainly this is one of them. We need to keep paying attention, and people are doing that."

Woods Hole is conducting research that measures the path and temperature of some parts of the Gulf Stream.

New Zealand scientists have also been reviewing the potential impact of a change in ocean flows.

National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research oceanographer Phil Sutton said the scenario had "such catastrophic implications" globally that it was worthy of study and consideration.

"We would expect Europe to cool down by as much as 10C - some people are saying worse - but what will happen in the Southern Hemisphere is a gentle warming."

The South Pacific was cooled by flows from the Antarctic, but "if you turn the tap off", this would result in a gradual warming, he said.

Most research suggested New Zealand could expect to warm by about 2C, with some estimates suggesting this could happen within decades.

"Two degrees does not sound like a lot, but it could have a big effect on things like glaciers and snowfall and farming practice and horticulture," Dr Sutton said.

Estimates of the period of time before the flows shut down varied from a decade to a century, though some estimates were shorter, he said.

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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 2:17 am 
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hmmm - might go for the south island after all... this would make the north island much to much like Singapore for my liking!


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 2:18 am 
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Friends, summers were "unusually hot" in Texas LONNNNNNNNG before GW started to take hold! In fact, "unusually" is normal for us here! You'd think that'd make us better prepared than most, huh? Except the National Machine of Texas is--the air conditioner! :evil:

Boy, are we 8O, or what?!


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 4:34 am 
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Here in the northeast, we've been very lucky. The past few years we've had mild winters and cool summers. Otherwise, we'd be facing blackouts regularly. A lot of our power comes from natural gas, which has gotten pretty scarce and expensive since 2000.

Rolling blackouts in the summer are bad enough, but now we are also facing rolling blackouts in winter. Of course, just as summer blackouts happen during heat waves, winter blackouts happen during cold snaps. The last time we had power emergency warnings in the winter, it was below zero.


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 6:13 am 
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Heres what the UKMET (yes its European) is forecasting for the summer temp wise. Looks chilly for me :)

This is for June/July/August
Image


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 8:37 am 
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Should be interesting to see who's right.

Image

The U.S. weather mavens are predicting it will be hotter than normal in the south, west, and in Alaska. (Orange areas are warmer than average, blue are cooler.)


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:50 am 
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look at all that warm air and warm water in the central atlantic. Huricanes could be brutal this summer. It should at least make for some entertaining news watching. Of course the chances of forest fire wiping out everything I've been working so hard on are getting higher each year as we get less and less snow and rain.

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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Fri Jun 03, 2005 1:13 pm 
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Global warming has been making the Minnesota winters a bit easier to live with...but when those ocean currents stop, i'll be on 35W to texas!!!


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Sat Jun 04, 2005 7:06 am 
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This is what happens when you have a weak grid. Deal with it...

And replace those silly gas plants with nuke plants.

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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Sat Jun 04, 2005 8:47 am 
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I was reading some material from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, which noted that with increased heat, there is more moisture in the air and thus more precipitation. That's not only because warm air can hold more moisture, but because it's causing more evaporation.

With that in mind, I find it interesting that, here in the Great Lakes region of the U.S., there's been some very different weather patterns over a sustained period of time. Consider, for example, that in Cleveland, where weather records have been kept since 1872, we've had nine of the top ten snowiest winters occurring in just the past 30 years (see chart below from NOAA). Four of them occurred in just the past five years!

Normal seasonal snowfall for Cleveland is 63.4 inches (I remember in the 1980s that the average was less, about 55 inches). This past winter, we blew away the previous seasonal snowfall record by nearly 17 inches, even though temperatures for the November-April period averaged about normal or slightly above. We also had more than a foot of snow in late April, which collapsed many trees that had already begun sprouting their leaves. Damage is still being cleaned up in early June.

Here are the top-ten snowiest winters in Cleveland....

1. 117.9 2004-05
2. 101.1 1995-96
3. 100.5 1981-82
4. 95.7 2002-03
5. 91.2 2003-04
6. 90.1 1977-78
7. 88.5 1992-93
8. 80.9 1909-10
9. 79.4 1983-84
10. 78.1 2000-01

Should we expect more of the same under global warming? Worse?

KJP


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 Post subject:
New postPosted: Sat Jun 04, 2005 9:16 am 
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I'm going to South America...screw Texas!


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