Thanksgiving Day & Peak Oil
Kelpie Wilson
Reprinted from truthout.org
November 24th, 2005
Peak oil and Thanksgiving Day are now linked. Eminent geologist Kenneth Deffeyes predicted two years ago that the peak moment of world oil production would occur on Thanksgiving Day 2005.

Peak oil is a term for the point in time when world oil production will stop increasing and begin to decline. Deffeyes acknowledges that his prediction is just a guess based on extrapolated figures, but given all the unknowns, it may be as good as any other prediction about the end of the oil age.

One thing that is not in doubt is that the oil age will end. Geology and physics tell us that much. But because so many governments and corporations have not shared honest information about their oil reserves, they have not presented a reliable timeframe for the depletion of the oil resource.

The official agencies, the US Energy Information Agency and the European International Energy Agency, have said that world oil production will not peak until sometime around 2030. But last year after Royal Dutch Shell got caught inflating its reserve numbers in order to keep its share prices from plunging, the world suddenly started questioning the official numbers, and new reports have emerged from every quarter showing that peak oil is much closer than 2030. Most of these reports put the peak somewhere between 2006 and 2012. Others say we have already passed it.

One thing to remember about oil supply is that its peak will not resemble the Matterhorn. Instead it will look like a long rumbling plateau, bouncing around for a period before it slopes inexorably down. This is because, as oil prices go up, it becomes economical to produce oil that was bypassed as too expensive until now. This is dirty, heavy oil, oil that comes from tar sands or oil that is difficult to reach like arctic and deep off-shore oil.

Contemplating the end of oil is frightening, even terrifying. Every bit of our economy depends on cheap oil to function properly. No viable substitute lies waiting the wings. The end of oil means a radical change in our way of life. But since it is Thanksgiving, let's take a clear-eyed look at our situation and see if there is anything that we can be thankful for.

Speculation surrounds oil peak
By Patrice Hill
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
November 25, 2005


Thanksgiving marked the day that some analysts thought global oil production would have reached its peak, ushering in a new era of fuel shortages.
These petro-pessimists were using the same formula as the one that accurately predicted the apex of U.S. oil production in 1970.
Matthew Simmons, author of "Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy," is one of them. He thinks Saudi Arabia has pumped much of its usable reserves and will start to experience production declines.
Even analysts who are more optimistic warn that chronically high prices and occasional supply crunches are likely in the years ahead. The world's consumers are using up nearly all the oil being produced today, and the outlook for growth of supplies is uncertain.
"In terms of prices, I think the risk is ... it's going to explode," Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, told the Council on Foreign Relations in New York last week.

I’m starting an honor roll of names and the dates when they announced that the peak is here. The list is also known as the "Cornucopian Cemetery." James Medlin earned a spot on the honor roll by circulating a long interesting paper along with a note saying that oil had already peaked before Hurricane Katrina. T. Boone Pickens and Matt Simmons are already on board. And I have plots reserved for Daniel Yergin, Michael Lynch, and Thomas Ahlbrandt. They can sign up anytime that they are ready to admit that the peak has arrived.