In one of their latest reports the biggest energy research centre in Holland takes Peak Oil seriously.

The report is called four European Energy Futures and can be downloaded here

http://www.ecn.nl/docs/library/report/2005/c05057.pdf

It has a specific part of 10 pages about Peak Oil and why the timing of Peak Oil is important. It states the So called Doomsayers (according to ECN) arguments and why they have a lot of validity.

It's conclusion is: Why the doomsayers are right.

They base their 4 scenario's on Peak Oil and Global Climate Policy.

in 2 of their 4 scenario's Oil production Peaks between 2010 and 2020.

I found the report to be refreshingly balanced and clear, if perhaps a bit optimistic in their conclusions.

Excellent!

Which of the four scenarios do you think is most likely to happen (not the one you want should happen).

I believe Firewall Europe.

That's a pretty awesome report.

Interesting "cultural" point -- as a Canadian, it's interesting how they put climate-change issues almost on an equal level with energy-supply issues in that report -- you'd never see anything like that in North America, the energy supply would be somewhere north of 99% of the consideration with the remainder of the thought to "oh yeah, what about global warming?"

Hmmz it depends if you think Peak Oil will hit between 2010 and 2020 both Firewalled and Sustainable trade scenario's are possible.

By the way in Europe it is allmost always about climate change and almost NEVER about energy security or supply constraints.

Sometimes it makes me a little bit sick how much we are focused on one side of the topic (as with all things)..