Hungry for customers



Why?

Weaker real estate market, higher credit card payments...and gas prices.

The service sector is one of the few bright spots in the US economy and has been adding lots of jobs.

As these new higher oil prices work there way through the economy these casual dining places are going to be hit by a double whammy. One will be less customers the other will be higher food costs.

If they have to start laying off workers the problem will just compound it self.

Hungry for customers




I wish we had Outback Steakhouse in Australia.

The human resource is usually seen by The Mgmt as costly, expendable commodities. Workers will get laid off. The problem will compound itself.

Great article! Along the same line, here's an interesting item at James Kunstler's site: Farmer's Letter

The last paragraph is worthy of emphasis:

that'll happen when your 1million POS losses 5% of its value each month and you can no longer supplement your income with a yearly $50K equity extraction.

Good-bye FBs and God Bless

btw, for those unfamiliar with housing bubble speak:
POS - Piece of Shit
FB - Fucked borrower

Excellent article, Jack. What made me sick is when I read about how the neighbor farmer had begun feeding wood shavings mixed with chicken feces to the cattle. It's insanity.

Casual dining sites would see a hell of a lot more empty seats if more people read that article.

I often wonder if our heavily subsidized food industry is ever going to get bit in the ass. There is a farm down the road from me which gets subsidized for the production of milk. In my opinion the gov't will just raise subsidy payments over time to hide the "true" inflation. I think foods that don't get these payments for production are going to get murdered. The end result is that food will still be relatively cheap compared to other rising commodities, but very limited in selection. I honestly can't believe what people pay now to feed themselves.

I saw some What are you doing about high gas prices type threads on a couple other no-PO forums and the number one item after combining errands was less eating out.


BTW, there are lots of things around a barnyard that would gross out the uninitiated, of course cattle won’t graze near their own manure but they will knock down a fence to get to a pile of chicken litter, but then chicken scratch through cow flops too. Dogs eat calf manure, cows eat their own placentas and cats sometime eat their young.

It’s all about not starving to death – chicken manure contains lots of protein. To replace that protien you could use urea but you know where that comes from:
Urea is produced commercially from two raw materials, ammonia and carbon dioxide. Large quantities of carbon dioxide are produced during the manufacture of ammonia from coal or from hydrocarbons such as natural gas and petroleum derived raw materials. This allows direct synthesis of urea from these raw materials.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urea

The problem with feeding chicken littler used to be that it also contained spilled feed – which used to contain cattle brains and such. I think that has been outlawed due to BSE.

That story also decries bale wrap as a huge waste. The problem is that it isn’t or people wouldn’t use it. One roll of wrap costs about $400 – or did last year. In one $20 big round bale of hay there is $6-$8 of NPK and another $2-$3 worth of fuel. An unwrapped bale sitting outside will spoil maybe 20% the first year and after 3 years will be mostly useless while the unwrapped bale can sit for at least 3 years with minimal spoilage. In addition to protecting the grass baleage actually conserves more of the N than hay reduceing the need for synthetic protien (read: nat. gas).

So which is the bigger waste?

Sorry to get so far off topic

We have seen business drop off quite a bit in the past couple of years at the restaurant where I've been working for ten years. Rumors are swirling about all the rest of the resaurants in San Diego taking a hit too. There is a business district nearby where there are many vacant buildings that used to be full. I don't think our establishment will make it to the fall when business traditionally increases with cold weather (people like Italian food when it's cold and rainy). 10 years. I'll miss the place.

The sad thing is that the food service industry has been a great place for those coming out of college to turn to when they have had trouble finding work in their field of specialty.

Outsourcing of high value jobs has put a lot of hurt on many fields like accounting and computer programing. Many people have decided to become bartenders and waiters to pay their bills. Digging ditches may be the next place they turn as we head into this slow down.

We have had such a long hard run of growth since the dot com boom and really did not take that big of hit when it went south. The real estate boom took over were the .com left off.

A hard landing of the economy seems to be a given.

My family used to own a small hobby farm and raised 2 steers every year. 99% of their life was spent outside grazing, we even feed them apples and pears from the trees off the lawn. I think I need to go back to that, as the quality of food we buy will probably begin to deteriorate as keeping it cost effective and profitable will be the main thing.

The overall impression makes me want to get a large bomb shelter, fill it with non-perishable items, and get ready to ride out the die off. It looks like everything people and the government will do will make the problems worse with the people doing the right thing being the ones who pay.

I'm not sure how to interpret this yet. I don't eat out a whole lot (maybe 1-2 times a week, tops), but living alone can be a pain to cook for oneself. Nonetheless, I love to cook, so for me it's not too much of a hassle. However, most of my friends and colleagues are 20-somethings, most are single, and well over 80% of them don't cook...ever. I think the Gen X/Y crowd has been reliant on restaurants to cook their food for them, and most of the restaurants I visit are typically packed.

Young people just don't cook food anymore, so I don't think restaurants are going under anytime soon.

Do the smart thing and convert to a bar. Bar owners dont go out of business during a recession.

I don't like to cook, either, but there are cheaper options than casual dining. You can get a sandwich or salad at McDonald's. You can pick up something at the grocery store deli. You can buy a frozen dinner and microwave it.