If the crooks nuke irn then oil willl go sky high and save the day.

Throw the bums out, I say.

Oil prices will drop below $40 before the end of the year.

$50 is the bottom price that will easily be reached because of massive demand destruction.

But they will knock off $10, to reach a bottom of $40, needed to permanently destroy all enthusiasm and investment in the very real threat of renewables.

$40 before the end of the year.

^
Hey man, that's no fair. You started the poll on $40 before we even reached the target of $50 in this poll.

Party-pooper.

What's wrong man, you trying to steal my thunder?





BTW I voted for the 1st half of 2009 in this poll. At the rate things are going I may have been a bit conservative again.

Hybrid cars (Chevy Volt, Mercedes Bluetec, Tesla, etc...) + Global Economic Recession + Obama leading the polls + "Green" Trend + Pissed Off Americans Not Driving As Much - OPEC Production Cuts = High Chance of Lower Oil Prices.

I voted for "By the End of the Year". I guess the real question is if it does indeed hit $50 (or lower), for how long?

OPEC did have an effect in 1998 but I believe the economic climate was much better than it is today. Today, it's different.

Oil Prices in Dec 1998:

1998 Oil Prices

Dezakin wrote:

"Honestly, it would be terrible news in my opinion if the price of oil dropped below $50 in the next two years."

We rarely agree on anything, but you are spot on here. Unfortunately we seem to be well on our way to $50 and under, probably in the next few days or weeks.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders report shows that the Shorts outweigh the Longs.

CFTC Market Reports

Oil prices hit a 20-month low Tuesday as Wall Street offered yet more evidence that consumers have gone into hiding. Oil prices fell $3.08 to settle at $59.33 today.

We have plenty more room to fall now that the financial crisis is gradually seeping through to the real economy.

And the deeper we fall, the harsher the PO crash will be (good evidence from the IEA for that assumption now).

As always, it's a race between supply and demand... Only now the roles are reversed with demand too low and supply too high.

Can OPEC prevent oil's price from going much lower?

Amazing. You think Opec would do this? They risk internal domestic turmoil, at such a low price. I mean, really? It actually sounds plausible. Wow....Canada is beyond screwed if this happens.

Lorenzo, you confuse me. From your other posts I didn't think you believed in a PO crash.

Saudi Arabia pushed the USSR out of the oil industry by dropping prices so low it became unprofitable for them to produce anymore. This contributed to the collapse of the USSR. Now it seems the rest of the world is being pushed out the [s]oil[/s] energy industry the same was the USSR was.

Interesting insight, CC.

We dropped below $60, and now we're under $57.

Could we hit $50 today? This week?

What will the rebound look like and how soon will it come?

$55.87.

We're probably not going to make $40 before the end of the year. I will lose this bet.

But hey, I won the big one ($150-->$70) already, so I'm cool.

As long as oil remains above $50 throughout the recession we stand a chance at decreased volitility over the next decade as large capital projects suck up investment. If it drops below $50 then that will spook large capital off of expensive oil projects (CTL, deepwater, etc) and volitility will rule the day for a long time to come.