Threadbear:
No amount of conservation is going to appreciably effect the draw-down of petroleum.
For any given level of technological society each person must consume a minimum amount of energy. As technology advances, energy use increases in an exponential curve.
Case in point: computers. They supposedly do a lot of work, with not that much energy expended per unit. Yet we are consuming huge amounts of energy, not only directly through the computers but also the manufacturing at such high levels of precision require enormous amounts of energy.

You suggestion that if people consume more beans and less meat and ride mopeds the implication is that less energy will be used.
Yet, you need to eat more bean than meat to gain the equivalent energy.
You need more mopeds to move the equivalent number of people.

Is this what you are trying to say?

A crash.

Wanna date?



Cheers from senior

An ominous quote about oil market price cycles:



FT
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Let's all keep in mind that these high prices are holding up even though there has yet to be an actual shortfall of the crude supply. We're walking along the edge now, and while we're very close to it, we have yet to slip off it.

We can only guess at what the price spike will be when that first real shortage occurs.

I feel like we've been tiptoeing along the edge for a couple of years, blindfolded and uncaring. Ever since Katrina. Makes me nervous...

Zardoz, I think you've nailed it. The slip will bust some butts. Will we land on our toocus or our heads is the question.

I still say the price spike in oil will happen from an "event".

They don't want people to think it's from shortages.

There will be a provoking of Iran, false flag operation, attack on oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia? Something will be blamed for "harming the U.S. economy and causing oil prices to spike".

They have to create their enemy of the people. I'm sure we'll see this enemy rear its head soon.

Maybe the event will be what crashes the stockmarkets at the end of September/early October as well.

Jet

Whatever is contrived by way of explanation for a price spike, should it be decided that said spike would be less harmful at a moment of one's own choosing than were it to be allowed to occur at random, the contrived 'event' will not impede the correct functioning of oil infrastructure.

At any rate I do not consider such a scenario likely, but if anyone is indeed that cocky, they are still unlikely to be suicidal. Most of the tinfoil hat strategies discussed in other threads are so self-defeating as to be absurd. Nuke some oilfields and blame the price spike on that, huh?

I knew i wasn't the only one......

You know, sometimes I gaze longingly at The Oil Drum, they don't have telepathic Illuminati over there.

Let us at least make an attempt to remain on topic please.

I think it is a sign that the current price of oil is being sustained beyond the summer driving season.

$76.70 last I checked - no hurricanes... yet - no real geopolitical issues... yet.

Falling stocks and a still simmering summer demand seem to be all this price level is currently resting upon. I try to imagine war with Iran and a hurricane or two rolling through the Gulf of mexico yet it is hard to imagine $100 - $150 oil and $4 - $6 a gallon for gas kinda as we have been lulled into a false sense of security for so long.

One refinery fire or explosion, one hurricane, one small level terrorist event away from 100$ oil. I think we have been in that boat for just over a year now. Hurricane season is far from over.

Im going long on oil now that I can invest my 401K in just bout anything I want. We just got the ability to utilize a brokerage link/account and while slightly limiting Im free to do just about anything I want.

I think we dont even need any of the above, the liquidity crisis and a falling dollar is going to ensure higher oil prices when the fed does the only thing left to do and cut the prime rate later this month.

I would be real careful about your market assumptions. The liquidity crisis, that is getting much worse very quickly, is going to force a large group of financial companies to sell whatever they have that is actually saleable, to raise cash. That means things like oil and other commodities could drop in the short term.
Ironically, in the short term, housing and mortgages will hold their value. That isn't a good thing, it's simply that no one wants them so they are frozen and not too long from now will likely collapse dramatically.
I would recommend accumulating cash and holding pat until mid October. Then make some decisions.

I think I read today that opec probably wont raise output at their meeting. It would appear that the world is awash in crude oil. They dont want to saturate the market

Rdsnt,

Im thinking years, not months or weeks when i say Im long on oil. We will have to see what happens globally with the economy. Its a giant crapshoot right now.