over 143!!

Simmons is in an article in the Timesonline this morning talking about the future of oil production. If this is anywhere near true, the future is going to get real ugly, real fast. I still can't see it dropping as low as he is saying at that time.



Can you imagine the price of oil at 40mb a day! By then the country would be in a depression.

[url=http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article4237886.ece] Linkly......
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Matt Simmons also got an article into the New Scientist last week as part of there Oil Shock special. New Scientist seem to be moving quietly into the peaker camp.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 237886.ece

Still sitting at $142...

Stock market not looking pretty.

By the time we get to 40mb a day, price will long since have become irrelevant. No way will oil still be sold in an open market by then. It will be all about national agreements and military protection pacts. The price will be nominal and will be set forth by treaty. I'm starting to see that as the end game in Iraq. IMHO, the goal never was to win in Iraq. The goal was to justify US military presence there as a staging base. Bush's "mission accomplished" speech may have been more right than anyone realized.

Any guesses at which point global trade ends, leaving only little bilateral trade left? Next year? In five years? Ten?

I think that will probably happen once the population at large starts to accept peak oil as a certainty. I think that will happen once the plateau ends and it becomes clear that production levels have dropped and aren't coming back up. I'd guess maybe 75mb/d would be a target. I'd imagine that we'll start to see significant interference with NYMEX within the next year, and within 5 years, open trading of oil will be extinct.

This was near to my thinking back in 2003 to present SPG. The reasons given for the Iraq War and the rhetoric surrounding it lacked a ring of truth. Research on the subject lead me to the Peak Oil theory and finally to this website. I can thank the Bush Administration for that. However, it also opened a frightening view of the future.

We can't know the strategic plans in play but we can guess and I would say that an attack on Iran is very likely before Bush leaves office. Then any new administration will be locked into a policy they cannot easily extract themselves from. See Bush I's incursion into Somalia at the end of his term. He left Clinton a mess, which Clinton proceeded to make even worse.

So how will gasoline prices be set? I'm guessing rationing will look very likely in the next 5 years?

Yeah. It was always obvious there was an oil motive involved. What's new for me is the idea that the ensuing chaos was an accepted part of the plan. The question is, if they're going to stir up the hornets nest that is Iran, do they first need things to be more settled in Iraq. Maybe the answer is no. Maybe as long as they can protect the oil fields, it doesn't really matter for US foreign policy how much blood is flowing in the streets of Baghdad.



I'm still not convinced they actually will attack Iran right now. I'm pretty sure it would mean oil prices of $200+. That would have Wall Street soiling itself. Once production starts to decline, all bets are off.

DA and SPG

Your recent posts have been fully discussed in the 911 thread related to "why Iraq?" and "their" plan and the end game.

Keep in mind Kissinger said in the 70s that 80% of the global population needed to be culled and that oil was far too important a resource to allow the Arabs to control.

I would encourage the both of you to re and re-read salient entries in that thread (as AP would say).

This all really should come as no suprise, but I can understand how most go kicking and screaming to break from the great illusion.

DA wrote: "We can't know the strategic plans in play but we can guess and I would say that an attack on Iran is very likely before Bush leaves office."

There will be no new administration. Bush will declare marshal law, lock up all muslims, peace activists, gas-price prtesters, posters on this site...

He could do this even before he and the congress dissolved the constitution, and now there is nothing in his way. We're already spitting distance from $150. We could easily be at $200 before election time. The bank melt down will be unstoppable by then, the dollar worthless as anything but toilet paper.

Lots of reasons to istitute marshal law.

The one hope is that Bush will have destroyed the military to such an extent that his orders will be uninforcable, or that the military will finally refuse to obey his orders. But the mayhem that will be unfolding will make many call for the sense of control that marshal law would provide.

Oil will be rationed or simply not available to anyone but the military and perhaps some emergency services.

What about those millions of armed Amerikans?