Another Record ($143.67)

BigTex · **Posted:** Mon Jun 16, 2008 9:30 am

Looks like the whole "doom pack" is travelling together today.

Oil (USO)
Natural Gas (UNG)
Gold (GLD)
Silver (SLV)

smallpoxgirl · **Joined:** Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:00 am **Posts:** 7742

BigTex wrote:

Looks like the whole "doom pack" is travelling together today.

Oil (USO)
Natural Gas (UNG)
Gold (GLD)
Silver (SLV)

Coal's (KOL) is up too.
The dollar is down a bit, but I don't think it's enough to explain all that.

GoghGoner · **Joined:** Thu Apr 10, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 656

Cannot find an updated oil price, nymex is down, cnn is a couple of hours behind, etc... I have noticed a stoppage in the past, does anybody know what's happening this time?

EDIT: The quotes are coming thru now.

smallpoxgirl · **Joined:** Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:00 am **Posts:** 7742

The upper line of the pennant broke. It's currently testing the lower line of the pennant (~$133.40). If that breaks, we may be in for a significant drop.

TheDude · **Posted:** Mon Jun 16, 2008 11:19 am

Crude Oil Declines From Record Amid Signs Saudi Arabia to Increase Output

Quote:

June 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell, retreating from a record, on signs that Saudi Arabia will increase production to stabilize prices.

Saudi Arabia will produce 9.7 million barrels of oil a day next month, an increase of 200,000 barrels above June's level, King Abdullah told United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, according to a UN spokesman. Prices earlier climbed to a record $139.89 after a fire cut North Sea output and the dollar declined against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities.

Crude oil for July delivery fell 80 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $134.06 a barrel at 1:34 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures earlier reached a record $139.89 a barrel.

Let's break out the Victory Gin!

hironegro · **Joined:** Tue Apr 08, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 432

sorry bro not everyone is boomer doomer.

chuck6877 · **Joined:** Mon May 16, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 497

$140.42 as the NEW HIGH!?

Look at the chart below for WTIC which says that is the new high!?

[web]http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p21814216162[/web]

Novus · **Joined:** Tue Jun 21, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 1948

Someone must have been pretty desperate to bid a price that high. Oil was trading for most of the day in the mid 130s so there really was no need for such a premium.

smallpoxgirl · **Joined:** Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:00 am **Posts:** 7742

chuck6877 wrote:

$140.42 as the NEW HIGH!?

I'm not sure how WTIC is calculated. The high for the NYMEX July futures contract was what's reflected in the thread title - $139.89.

lowem · **Posted:** Mon Jun 16, 2008 9:16 pm

chuck6877 wrote:

$140.42 as the NEW HIGH!?

That's due to the Aug 2008 contract hitting $140.42. The front-month contract is still Jul 2008 and that hit the $139.89 price that's currently being reported in news media everywhere.

I'd suppose to make things consistent around here, our "official benchmark" should remain as the price of the front-month NYMEX futures contract all the way up till expiry and roll-over to the next month.

Stockcharts seems to take the price quotes from the contract with the highest volume of transactions which is why we're seeing this. We are nearing the expiry date for the Jul 2008 contract so traders are switching over to the next month's one. You can see the $140.42 high on the NYMEX PSO (previous session overview) page.

TreebeardsUncle · **Joined:** Thu Jun 15, 2006 12:00 am **Posts:** 681

So, are we making $150 by July?

Am thinking about starting to sell out of the drillers Noble Energy, Ensco, and H&P within a month.

Geoff

chuck6877 · **Joined:** Mon May 16, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 497

To all of you,
Thanks for the explanation

I'm sure we'll be through $140 soon enough........(in the front month!)

mcgowanjm · **Joined:** Fri May 23, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 538

smallpoxgirl wrote:

The upper line of the pennant broke. It's currently testing the lower line of the pennant (~$133.40). If that breaks, we may be in for a significant drop.

Hello SPG, 8D

You're right that either way oil breaks this flag, there will
be a significant movement.

The problem for the bears is the weekly inventory reports.

Every Wed (or Thurs on Holiday) for the past 52 weeks, at least one
of the major fuels has had significant reductions.

And we have no more grain for 400 000 bbls per day of ethanol
to fill in the gaps.

Has there been any fog in the Houston Ship Channel this week?

yours,
James

chuck6877 · **Joined:** Mon May 16, 2005 12:00 am **Posts:** 497

The Oil Stock Index ($OIX) looks like it's starting to break out to the upside today after it's been consolidating.

This would be BULLISH for $WTIC.

The $OIX has been making its big moves before $WTIC.

I bet oil breaks the upper part of that flag decisively in the next couple days.....

but then again will it go past 1.421 X the 200 day moving average? Hmmmmmm.. That currently is right at $142.

Heck, I don't know

Chuck

smallpoxgirl · **Joined:** Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:00 am **Posts:** 7742

mcgowanjm wrote:

The problem for the bears is the weekly inventory reports.

Yeah. I think maybe you're right. Everybody is waiting on the inventory report to be the tie breaker. Yesterday we had the huge false breakout top side to $139. This morning there was a false breakout on the bottom side down to $132. At the end of the day, we're right back inside the pennant. It's like people are lost and don't know which way to go with it. All the while the 20dma creeps closer and closer and the upper envelope line creeps higher and higher. Also, despite the two false breakouts, the volume is starting to drop off like a pennant should.

Another Record ($143.67)

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