Market is down huge today

dow is down 370 right now almost 3%

Which may or may not be used for transporting food for civilians. Hope you got all your preps in order.

Arsenal

I think your're mostly right - like posting military guards at gasoline stations, refineries, and pipelines. SPR oil won't really help parts of the US far from the Texas-Louisiana border anyway.

Lots to talk about this weekend over the backyard BBQs

-$139 oil

-DOW 400 point haircut

Interestingly, my friends who thought I was cuckoo 2 years ago aren't laughing at me anymore. Imagine that.

WE BETTER PRAY TO THE WEATHER GODS THAT NO HURRICANE EVEN ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS SUMMER, YET ALONE HITS A MAJOR REFINERY OR WE ARE TOAST!!![b]

my prediction back in 2006 wasn't that far off

by the way I'm not predicting that oil will fall back to $20

it's just that my model falls apart after year 2009

Ohanian - thanks for the clarification. I thought the upper bounds of your Y-scale was about $1,000 too low.

Not as good as I'd like. Oh well, I can beat the Zombie Hordies to the store anyhoo. No workie, so I can stock up right NOW with a pocket full of C notes. Also, that 50 gal in gas storage may come in handy.

You know $200 by the forth of July is not unreasonable at this point. All the super poor people 3rd worlders have already been forced from the market. To get further demand destruction it is going to take a much higher price to make a change.

China will say screw the Olympics. Iran sends half its oil to the Far East. The US will probably make up Taiwan's shortfall somehow. But China will have problems. Japan will have problems. South Korea will have problems. So would India. 'Problems' meaning a sizeable chunk of their supply gone in a step-change and their future, in the shape of national continuity, cancelled. If they cannot obtain additional supply, Japan might not be able to keep the lights on in some regions once they drain their storage because they have nuke plants (baseload!) that are out for heavy maintenance and their backup is oil. Oh, and China would just love watching Taiwan receive extra shipments from KSA or SPR while their economy collapses and people revolt.

The Asia-Pacific Rim would miss Iranian exports the way they would any other energy pillar from that part of the world. And guess who holds the debt? A sporting event would be the last thing on anyone's mind. It is madness.

(Apologies for the lengthy off-topic post).

I'll tell ya, it's downright obscene.

Good point. There is a lot of elastic room (in the way of price) before workers in the "first world" will have to ride the bus to make working profitable.

There's another thread on here about AAA publishing that driving was down 4% from last year. We'll probably see gradual recreational declines punctuated by several sudden jolts of demand destruction as other forms of transportation become necessary for various activities.\

The psychology of "Hmm, maybe I can't afford to drive an extra x miles for y" may take a couple of paycheck cycles to sink in as well. Right now, people are getting sticker shock. It will take a month or so for them to realize how much fuel is cutting into their personal budgets when the bills come in and there's a lot less to go around.

I felt like the sell-off last week revealed the 'real' price at about $122.

Is there a chance that the gains today are all those speculators back in the game?

I've been here since 2006 and on a scale of doom 1 to 10, we are headed towards 10. I can't believe it.

You guys are so silly. THIS IS NOTHING.
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Wait till people discover peak oil. Then things will get exciting.

joeltrout