Another Record ($143.67)

DantesPeak · **Posted:** Mon Mar 17, 2008 7:01 pm

therealtruth wrote:

Can you say MARGIN CALL!! Crude oil right now is the most dangerous market to be in because of its disconnect from the fundamentals. This market can literally move in either direction for no reason at all! Look at the dollar today, it's down so crude should be up right? This is exactly the reason why people who have no clue about the markets get killed because they buy what the broker tells them to buy, and guess what? The majority of brokers sell whatever is hot in the news because its an easier sell than trying to convince someone of a market that there is no news on! Just a little advice STAY OUT OF CRUDE! Funds are taking profits and probably will continue to do so for the rest of the month.

I think the whole commodity market received a margin call, with panic setting in at one major commodity broker.

The only thing I don't understand is why didn't oil drop more with panic liquidation going on?

Valdemar · **Posted:** Tue Mar 18, 2008 5:34 am

Seems to be making a climb again. It's upto $107.43 from my last check.

AirlinePilot · **Posted:** Tue Mar 18, 2008 10:45 am

Funny how we get so de-sensitized to these markets. I wont consider oil "down" until I see the price move back below the 60's or 70's.

The airline industry is struggling mightily to break out of the red and I know that above those levels its presently almost impossible to make money. We either change the pricing structure or die a death of a thousand cuts.

Valdemar · **Posted:** Tue Mar 18, 2008 12:28 pm

Near $110 again now. Wonder how this Fed rate cut will help things along...

therealtruth · **Joined:** Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 8

Hey look the dollar is up so oil should be down right? I'm telling you guys this market is way overdone!

dohboi · **Joined:** Mon Dec 05, 2005 1:00 am **Posts:** 2096

trt wrote "This market can literally move in either direction for no reason at all!"

Indeed, but this is not news to most here.

How long have you been watching these markets? People can guess after the fact why a move happened, but day-to-day moves are basically impossible to predict. Most here see day trading as a fools game.

But most here have been right about the long-term trend in oil prices while most of the high-paid "experts" and media talking heads have been consistently wrong.

Pardon us if we don't take your predictions very seriously if you have not such track record and if you ever thought that day to day moves could be predicted.

therealtruth · **Joined:** Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:00 am **Posts:** 8

I wasn't predicting the day to day moves of the market! I'm saying that in the immediate short-term, oil prices are coming down. As you can see, the funds are liquidating. I said this 2 days ago!! I'm telling everyone to stay out of crude oil because the fundamentals in reality isn't strong enought to justify $100 crude, maybe $80 but definitely not $100. Even when you factor in the devaluation of the dollar and the potential risks still out there that might not have been factored into the price, anything above $80 is excessive!

DantesPeak · **Posted:** Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:50 pm

therealtruth wrote:

I wasn't predicting the day to day moves of the market! I'm saying that in the immediate short-term, oil prices are coming down. As you can see, the funds are liquidating. I said this 2 days ago!! I'm telling everyone to stay out of crude oil because the fundamentals in reality isn't strong enought to justify $100 crude, maybe $80 but definitely not $100. Even when you factor in the devaluation of the dollar and the potential risks still out there that might not have been factored into the price, anything above $80 is excessive!

What exactly are the fundamentals here?

How about a worldwide diesel shortage, which will be alleviated only the arrival of Spring.

The only way to get more diesel is to refine it, and world inventories of oil are running down - despite generally adequate supplies in the US.

But if you really wanted to look at fundamentals - what kind of oil exactly is in those inventories, even in the US?

There are no commercial reports on the quality of oil in private hands.

DantesPeak · **Posted:** Thu Mar 20, 2008 6:45 am

A Shell executive on CNBC just said what I've been saying: the high price of oil is not justified by normal supply/demand considerations but the demand for diesel can not be met except by refining more oil.

Last_Laff · **Joined:** Sat Sep 16, 2006 12:00 am **Posts:** 278

Is it just me or 98.89 has been stuck for some time today?

It looks like Mr. 98.89 is looking at the floor.

[edit: never mind it seem to me 321energy are havin some glitches or sumthin'...]

emersonbiggins · **Posted:** Thu Mar 20, 2008 1:13 pm

Oil doesn't seem to like double-digits much anymore - back up @ $101.80/bbl.

Bas · **Posted:** Thu Mar 20, 2008 1:26 pm

emersonbiggins wrote:

Oil doesn't seem to like double-digits much anymore - back up @ $101.80/bbl.

get ready for the "traditional" runup to the summer I'd say.

Revi · **Posted:** Thu Mar 20, 2008 6:51 pm

I wish I could buy my heating oil during these dips. If it gets down to around $90 again I think I'll try to pre-buy.

It didn't stay below $100 for long today!

sameu · **Posted:** Sun Mar 23, 2008 10:31 am

therealtruth wrote:

I wasn't predicting the day to day moves of the market! I'm saying that in the immediate short-term, oil prices are coming down. As you can see, the funds are liquidating. I said this 2 days ago!! I'm telling everyone to stay out of crude oil because the fundamentals in reality isn't strong enought to justify $100 crude, maybe $80 but definitely not $100. Even when you factor in the devaluation of the dollar and the potential risks still out there that might not have been factored into the price, anything above $80 is excessive!

the price is what it is and not what it should be
if this price is not supported by the fundamentals; it soon will drop to whatever price it is that's supported by the fundamentals

emersonbiggins · **Posted:** Wed Mar 26, 2008 1:53 pm

Oil on a $4 tear today, back up to $105.94/bbl.

On a related note, US$ is headed deeper into the abyss - 71.6.

Another Record ($143.67)

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