Register

Peak Oil is You


Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)


Page added on July 25, 2013

Bookmark and Share

World will use 56 percent more energy by 2040

World will use 56 percent more energy by 2040 thumbnail

Developing countries are driving the consumption of inexpensive fossil fuels, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Government intervention and international exchanges of low-carbon technology could help mitigate the effects of climate change, experts say.

A laborer shovels coal at a local storage site in Jiande, Zhejiang province, in China. China and other emerging economies are driving a huge increase is world energy consumption through 2040, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Reuters/File

Despite decades of clean-energy innovation and improved efficiency measures, the world’s population is consuming carbon-heavy fuels at a quickening pace, a new government report shows

Developing countries are driving the consumption of inexpensive fossil fuels, relying on them to fuel their emerging economies. That growth is likely to continue, but government intervention and international exchanges of low-carbon technology can help mitigate the energy and environmental impacts of economic development, experts say.

“There is still the opportunity, with smart policy interventions, to moderate the energy and emissions growth and potentially preserve the option of limiting warming to 2 degrees,” Elliot Diringer, executive vice president of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, said in a telephone interview.

Global energy consumption will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040, according to the report, released Thursday by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Renewable and nuclear energy are projected to grow the fastest, but fossil fuels will continue to dominate, making up 80 percent of world energy use through 2040.

That dominance is visible in countries like China and India where sustained, long-term growth has driven demand for cheap and prevalent sources of fuel like coal and oil. Energy use within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which represents the developed nations, is projected to grow only 17 percent between 2010 and 2040. Outside the OECD, however, it’s expected to rise by 90 percent, according to EIA.

“Rising prosperity in China and India is a major factor in the outlook for global energy demand. These two countries combined account for half the world’s total increase in energy use through 2040,” EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said in a statement Tuesday. “This will have a profound effect on the development of world energy markets.”

China consumed 47 percent of the world’s coal in 2010, according to EIA, and its reliance on the carbon-heavy source of fuel will continue in the decades to come. But China is diversifying its portfolio and technologies like carbon capture and storage, which can help curb emissions growth.

“China has established itself as a global reader in renewables, in part by acquiring technology developed in the West through licensing arrangements,” Mr. Diringer said. “New coal plants built in China are state of the art. We are seeing the latest technology being deployed, but they are still building coal plants.”

The result is increasing emissions. Worldwide, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will rise from about 31 billion metric tons in 2010 to 36 billion metric tons in 2020, according to EIA, and then to 45 billion metric tons in 2040. That’s a 46 percent increase over 30 years.

Carbon intensity, on the other hand, is slowly declining. The amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of economic output is expected to fall by 1.9 percent per year in OECD economies and by 2.7 percent per year in the non-OECD economies from 2010 to 2040, according to EIA. That decline is largely attributed to countries using energy more efficiently.

“This trend of decreasing carbon intensity, combined with the increase in low-carbon energy sources, is good news, but is not enough to slow carbon emissions to the levels we know that we need to prevent further climate change,” Joanna Lewis, professor of science, technology, and international affairs at Georgetown University, wrote in an e-mail.

“This only reaffirms our knowledge that ‘business as usual’ energy development is not good enough,” Ms. Lewis added, “and we need to dramatically think about how we produce and consume energy in the coming three decades, as this is a decisive time in determining our ability to mitigate future greenhouse gas emissions.”

CS Monitor



15 Comments on "World will use 56 percent more energy by 2040"

  1. Arthur on Thu, 25th Jul 2013 10:33 pm 

    The Christian Science monitor can fall back on it’s core business: faith.

  2. Plantagenet on Thu, 25th Jul 2013 11:53 pm 

    Whose idea was it to let China join the developed world anyway?

  3. Kenz300 on Fri, 26th Jul 2013 12:09 am 

    “Rising prosperity in China and India is a major factor in the outlook for global energy demand. These two countries combined account for half the world’s total increase in energy use through 2040,”
    ———————

    The price of fossil fuels will keep rising……. good thing the price of wind and solar keeps dropping……

    Alternative energy sources will continue to grow and become a bigger part of the worlds energy mix every year.

    Renewables to Surpass Gas by 2016 in the Global Power Mix

    http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/partner/russtech-inc/news/article/2013/07/renewables-to-surpass-gas-by-2016-in-the-global-power-mix

  4. GregT on Fri, 26th Jul 2013 12:28 am 

    As the cost of oil keeps rising, more and more coal will be burned, accelerating climate change.

    Our coal exports are expected to quadruple in the coming years, and plans are already in effect to build more coal export terminals. I suspect that despite all of the public outcry, the plans will go ahead. Industry only cares about the bottom line.

    We have been repeatedly warned, for over 4 decades, of the results of continuing to spew CO2 into the atmosphere. We have not listened, and we are still not listening. Most people only care about the economy, jobs, and holding on to BAU.

    We have made the choice already, and now we will pay the consequences.

  5. BillT on Fri, 26th Jul 2013 12:32 am 

    Well, another dream that will not happen. Where are they going to get the energy? There are no real ‘alternate’ energy sources that will be cheap and plentiful like oil used to be. And expensive energy is going to cut the use across the board.

    Assuming there is still a civilization in 2040, (and I give that a 40% chance) it will be using maybe half, or less, of the energy we use today because it will not be used for anything not a pure necessity.

  6. Beery on Fri, 26th Jul 2013 3:53 am 

    As BillT says, there isn’t going to be 56% more energy in 2040. I doubt we’ll even get to 20% more.

  7. J-Gav on Fri, 26th Jul 2013 8:47 am 

    ” … inexpensive fossil fuels” ? (in the subtitle). Whose keester did they pull that out of? Economies are already strained all over the world with the price of oil where it is now, in case the author hasn’t noticed …

    Okay, one can argue that fossil fuels aren’t expensive enough! (to allow a more rapid deployment of alternative energies) However, as several commenters have already pointed out on this site, “renewable” energies are merely fossil-fuel extenders. Looks to me like we’re in a nasty fix and I don’t think we’ll have to wait till 2040 for that to become apparent to anybody with a few serviceable neurons clicking between their ears.

  8. Arthur on Fri, 26th Jul 2013 9:49 am 

    “Okay, one can argue that fossil fuels aren’t expensive enough! (to allow a more rapid deployment of alternative energies)”

    Touche!

    “However, as several commenters have already pointed out on this site, “renewable” energies are merely fossil-fuel extenders””

    Absolutely not true. You can run a blast furnace on electricity, cars, trains. Planes admittedly are going to be difficult with all these batteries.lol and electric catenaries do not yet exist for planes. Nevertheless here is a Swiss guy who at least can transport his own body (and not much else) through the air using solar cells only, even at night:

    http://www.solarimpulse.com/

    Using electricity you can do everything you can do with fossil, even better so, as no form of energy is so easy to transport as electricity.

  9. BillT on Fri, 26th Jul 2013 10:12 am 

    Arthur.you gloss over the fact that the components of ALL of your techie dream toys require huge amounts of fossil fuel energy to exist in any useful quantity outside of the lab.

    I worked at a steel foundry in the 60s that made steel with electricity and it made all of about 60 tons per day using the electric that could have powered a town of 25,000. 60 tons was the amount of steel in one M48 Army tank or maybe 20 cars of the time. My old Buick weighed in at 3 tons plus with steel bumpers that were 1/8 inch thick and big enough to push down trees…almost.

    You are truly into the religion of technology, and I feel sorry for you. Not everything has a techie fix and many of the things that might, should never be done anyway. Tech got us into this mess and it cannot get us out.

  10. Arthur on Fri, 26th Jul 2013 12:00 pm 

    “I worked at a steel foundry in the 60s that made steel with electricity and it made all of about 60 tons per day using the electric that could have powered a town of 25,000. 60 tons was the amount of steel in one M48 Army tank or maybe 20 cars of the time.”

    We have been over that several times before. I do not believe in a future for the car or tanks or large ships, so what on earth are we going to use all the steel for? For spoons? A few hundred thousand steel windturbine towers for sure. And bicycles powered by a battery. I know a nice source for all THAT steel: all these superfluous cars parked in the roads.

    Future: food production in a sort of Kibutz/Kolchoze (mild sort of socialism), every village/town one or more windturbines, personal transport on two-wheelers, with or without batteries, solar panels on all south directed roofs, all business transactions, communications, meetings, education, etc. online. Few cars apart from utility vehicles. Comeback of the train, tyranical recycling.

    That kind of future is achievable, hands down and is not even that bad.

  11. DC on Fri, 26th Jul 2013 5:32 pm 

    Question is, will there even be 56% more energy available TO use in 2040? Or, if there is, will it at prices people can afford.

    No one ever asks that do they…

  12. GregT on Fri, 26th Jul 2013 8:42 pm 

    “Future: food production in a sort of Kibutz/Kolchoze (mild sort of socialism), every village/town one or more windturbines, personal transport on two-wheelers”

    I would agree with you on this Arthur, IF the scientific community is wrong about the 6th mass extinction event that they say we are currently well into.

    Wind turbines could be used for community refrigeration, pumping water, or perhaps even lighting, just like electricity is still used in many parts of the world today. Once those turbines reach their useful lives, however, they will not be replaced, unless replacements and/or parts are stockpiled in advance. Not a big deal, electric power generation is a very recent occurrence in human history, and is by no means necessary for human survival.

    “all business transactions, communications, meetings, education, etc. online.”

    Business transactions for what? Communications, meetings, education, about what? If our society does manage to revert back to what you mention above, people will be doing the same that they have for tens of thousands of years. Working to survive. Modern business practices are a product of excess energy inputs. Without an affordable, abundant, excess supply of energy, business will cease to exist. Communications will be mostly local, as will ‘village’ meetings, and education will come from hands on experience, as it should.

    Not a bad future outlook at all, and very achievable. Many millions of people past and present are proof of that.

  13. shortonoil on Fri, 26th Jul 2013 8:55 pm 

    Not much chance of it happening. By 2030-33 the energy to extract, process, and distribute the average barrel of oil will be equal to the energy in the average barrel of oil. The Second Law doesn’t take vacations. The unanswered question is how much will that reduce other energy sources. Petroleum now accounts for 86% of the world’s transportation fuels. Without transportation there is very little trade, and without trade not much economy.

  14. dashster on Sat, 27th Jul 2013 8:05 am 

    “Whose idea was it to let China join the developed world anyway?”

    Richard Nixon was given big kudos back in his day for “opening up China”. Once opened CEOs had a field day sending American jobs there (and India and elsewhere). To this day, sending jobs to those countries is still heralded by government and business leaders in the US.

  15. dashster on Sat, 27th Jul 2013 8:08 am 

    The Energy Watch Group is predicting Peak Oil, Peak Coal and Peak Gas by 2025. So to get 54% higher AFTER that is gonna take a lot of solar and/or wind and/or nuclear. The chances of that happening are reduced since no world leaders have ever acknowledged a peaking of any fossil fuels.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *