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Page added on October 24, 2016

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World oil demand to drop by 7% by 2035

Consumption

Oil consumption will stand at 87 million barrels per day by 2035, or 7 percent less than the current figures in the baseline scenario, according to the study conducted by Moscow-based VYGON Consulting company.

VYGON Consulting said that the total world oil demand will reach its peak by 2023, as it will increase by 3.3 percent as compared to 2015 and stand at 97 million barrels per day, RIA Novosti reported.

Decrease of consumption in road transportation and energy sectors will be the main reason of the decline in world oil demand by 2035, according to the report.

“The oil consumption in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will drop by 27 percent. The oil demand will increase by 11 percent in developing countries from 2015 to 2035, while it will begin to gradually decrease after 2029,” said VYGON Consulting. “As a result, the share of non- OECD countries in oil demand will increase from the current 51 percent to 61 percent by the ends of the forecast period.”

Oil will remain a key energy source for the foreseeable future, regardless of the rate of development of renewable energy and alternative technologies in road transport, according to the report.

However, the demand for oil products can decrease quite significantly, and the consumption peak against the backdrop of increase in oil supply can lead to a collapse in prices, and tighter competition for markets, according to the analysts.

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40 Comments on "World oil demand to drop by 7% by 2035"

  1. penury on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 10:52 am 

    I thought someone else said we would be out of oil by 2030?

  2. Boat on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 11:52 am 

    The world is adding over 22 million FF vehicles and growing per year. 2023 seems a few years early to call a peak. 2030 seems more likely as EV’s need time to scale and drop prices.

  3. peakyeast on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 3:15 pm 

    @penury: You can find any position on any subject. 🙂

  4. Apneaman on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 3:41 pm 

    2035? By 2035 there is going to be a lot fewer consumers because civilization will be much smaller by then if it exists at all.

    Global Warming is Winning the Battle Against Arctic Sea Ice — Extent Drops to New Record Lows

    “2016’s record low readings are now about 3 million square kilometers below same day readings for October 23 of 1981”

    “In other words, an area of sea ice approximately the size of one and a half Greenlands has disappeared over the intervening 35 year period. ”

    https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/24/global-warming-is-winning-the-battle-against-arctic-sea-ice-extent-drops-to-new-record-lows/

  5. peakyeast on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 3:50 pm 

    Now is the time to buy some mountain property on Greenland !!

    It may not exactly beachfront now.. but it will be if you wait.

    Note: Dont buy downhill from a glacier.

  6. Boat on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 4:24 pm 

    Apneaman on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 3:41 pm

    2035? By 2035 there is going to be a lot fewer consumers because civilization will be much smaller by then if it exists at all.

    So in 18 years oceans will have risen 4-6 inches? Is that wrong? What else you got.

  7. Apneaman on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 4:50 pm 

    Boat I have been explaining and posting the evidence and more than anything else documenting the real world and real time consequence for over two years. Do you need to be retrained every day?

    Barrow sets new record for latest date without snow cover

    https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/weather/2016/10/15/barrow-sets-new-record-for-latest-date-without-snow-cover/

    Beware the inertia. One of the most powerful forces in the universe. There is a shit load of energy/warming in the system and it’s coming regardless of what the humans do. Of course the humans are doing as much as they can thus making it faster and worse. 2035 Ha! If your still alive you won’t recognize the place.

  8. Apneaman on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 4:53 pm 

    Globally Averaged CO2 Levels Reach 400 parts per million in 2015

    “CO2 levels had previously reached the 400 ppm barrier for certain months of the year and in certain locations but never before on a global average basis for the entire year. The longest-established greenhouse gas monitoring station at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, predicts that CO2 concentrations will stay above 400 ppm for the whole of 2016 and not dip below that level for many generations.”

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/10/161024125717.htm

  9. makati1 on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 5:01 pm 

    Ap, you cannot train that which cannot learn. You document the climate changes and I point out the financial changes. Both will soon take down civilization as we know it.

    Perhaps Boat doesn’t kn0ow that the oceans will not rise the same amount everywhere? Some areas will rise faster than others. I didn’t know that until I read a few articles explaining it.

    “Satellite data indicates that since 1992, there has been an average rise of about 3 millimeters per year in global sea level. That may not sound like much, but it adds up quickly. And remember – sea level rise isn’t uniform across the globe. For instance, tide gauge measurements show that sea level is rising almost 10 mm/yr in Louisiana because the land is sinking. In other coastal areas, sea level trends are falling. For example, in southeast Alaska, local sea level trends are falling up to 17 mm/yr because the land is rising.”

    http://oceantoday.noaa.gov/globalvslocalsealevel/

    Bet he never considered that the land will rise under certain conditions. Greenland will rise a lot as the glacier weight shrinks as they melt. Could set off the volcanoes under it. Ditto for Antarctica. The physical world is not static, it is “alive”.

  10. Boat on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 5:07 pm 

    Apneaman on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 4:53 pm

    I have never argued CO2 levels or shitloads of inertia in the system from weather were not destructive. I just don’t see much change on the ground. When are large chunks of population going to be taken out. When will land on a large scale force humans to relocate. You know, real change.

  11. peakyeast on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 5:33 pm 

    @boat: What is a large chunk? 1 million? 10? 100? 1000?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Migration

    The “great” migration in the america:
    The Great Migration was the movement of 6 million African-Americans out of the rural Southern United States to the urban Northeast, Midwest, and West that occurred between 1910 and 1970. So 6 mio. in 60 years?

    Today we have a million a year going to EU alone.

    Concerning deaths: We have millions dying from war. We have a billion living on a “non-feasible-diet” – or slow death.

    Please do enlighten me as to where it is a large chunk?

  12. peakyeast on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 5:33 pm 

    when…

  13. rockman on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 5:36 pm 

    Peaky – I just find amusing to see folks are about such matters. There’s no basis for such a calculation…7%…3%…14%…6.873%…LOL.

    Pick a number…any number. It doesn’t matter. So 7% by 2035? Why not…it’s just someone’s highly prejudicial expectation. IOW just an opinion. Everybody has them. And if 7% by 2035 proves to be accurate I doubt anyone will find this post in a search.

  14. peakyeast on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 5:46 pm 

    Rock: You are correct. But there are some real limits that you can set.

    From my experience the popular definition of a large chunk is when something happens to 1 person close to oneself.

    🙂

  15. peakyeast on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 5:59 pm 

    The 7 % figure is very funny btw.

    http://scienceblogs.com/cognitivedaily/2007/02/05/is-17-the-most-random-number/

    7 is the most popular random number (btw. 1-10) pulled out of a behind in an unexpected situation.

    Always be vary when you see that number !

    Look at that article. How many 7s?

    How many odd numbers to even(favored when selecting random numbers)?

  16. peakyeast on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 6:01 pm 

    I meant: odd numbers are favored – not even..

    At any rate without any calculations or proof of the numbers I would rate this article complete bongo-lala.

  17. Boat on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 8:01 pm 

    peak,

    In to 50’s after WWII China lost over 50 million due to famine. History is littered with such examples. So is climate change going cause such calamity by 3035? Ape thinks so, I don’t.

  18. Apneaman on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 10:47 pm 

    Boat, why don’t you explain and back up your view? How about because you can’t – it’s just a “feeling” you have right?

    AGW is only one of a number of predicaments. There is this other thing you might have heard of called the 6th mass extinction that’s underway. AGW is one of the drivers of it, but not the main one – not yet. Hunting, deforestation, mining and “development” are the main drivers of this current mass extinction. IOW humans. No worries though AGW is catching up and will soon take over all other causes. When you remove enough species from an eco system it tends to fall apart. I bet everyone is going to miss those pollinator species when they go.

    Maybe hand pollinating will become the next big merican employment boom?

    These Photos Capture The Startling Effect Of Shrinking Bee Populations
    In rural China, humans pollinate flowers by hand.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/humans-bees-china_us_570404b3e4b083f5c6092ba9

    Here is an example of what can happen when stupid humans extinct other species.

    China’s Worst Self-Inflicted Environmental Disaster: The Campaign to Wipe Out the Common Sparrow

    http://io9.gizmodo.com/5927112/chinas-worst-self-inflicted-disaster-the-campaign-to-wipe-out-the-common-sparrow

  19. Apneaman on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 10:53 pm 

    Boat I know the AGW jacked weather events only got about 40 texans this year, but how many big chunks of the infrastructure were destroyed or took a beating? When that already highly neglected infrastructure can no longer be maintained then you’ll see even bigger consequences. Houston can’t fill it’s potholes, but at least there are some really cool high school football stadiums being built.

  20. rockman on Mon, 24th Oct 2016 11:29 pm 

    “So is climate change going cause such calamity by 2035?” Are you (or anyone else) implying a 7% decline in demand would represent a “calamity”?

    It seems the article is implying the demand drop won’t be for lack of supply or high oil prices due to substitution.

    Of course there’s a number of obvious potential problems. First, no one knows how much of an inroads alts will make by 2035. Second, “…the consumption peak against the backdrop of increase in oil supply can lead to a collapse in prices…”. Obviously any substitution won’ happen in over just several years…it will have to keep expanding from today but even at a much faster rate. So as oil demand would slowly decline assuming alt expansion increases enough not only to replace current consumption but also the increase in demand due to population growth. So as oil demand slowly decreases it would lead to a decrease oil prices. But that would also decrease the incentive for drilling. Which would obvious decrease new oil production. Add that to the continued depletion of the existing fields. So exactly why should we expect an ” increase in oil supply”?

    IOW a decreased demand combined with decreased production might not lead to a “collapse of prices”. In fact not just stability but maybe even an increase. They are essentially predicting that in about 20 years the world will still be wanting 93% of current demand. That souled like folks will still want a sh*t load of oil by 2035.

    IMHO that just doesn’t smell like a price collapse.

  21. makati1 on Tue, 25th Oct 2016 1:38 am 

    rockman, just who are “They”? The oily grubbers who want to pretend that BAU will still be functional in 20 years? The stock holders who want to believe that they will still be rich in 20 years and not beggars in the street?

    I read hundreds of articles about such “externalities” as climate change, collapsing financial systems, obese debt over loads in most developed countries that buy oil, etc. Nothing I read suggests that oil will ever be higher priced for more than the time it takes to crash the whole financial system and end it all.

    Consumers are beginning to have to decide between eating and oily product consumption like cars, plastic junk, flying, etc. And, sorry, farming does not use huge amounts of oil. Especially subsistence farming.

    You should be glad that you are seeing the end of the oily age at a time of your life when you can retire. I pity those who plan a career in the oil or NG business. It will be short lived, I think. I hope they have a fall back trade or skill.

  22. makati1 on Tue, 25th Oct 2016 1:45 am 

    Ap, the fun is just beginning. I read the comments of some here, like Boat, and know that I will have the last laugh.

    They put me down as a Sinophile, nuclear war monger, etc, but they are still wrong. They just know what I want them to know about me, which is just bits and pieces. They cannot stand the idea that there might be a better place to live than the US. Or a safer one.

    Fine with me. The Ps don’t need to be overrun by fat Americans. They do enough damage when they are in military uniform here. Part of why they are being kicked out.

  23. propaganda on Tue, 25th Oct 2016 3:48 am 

    on march 11 2525 oil demand will be 98.564766533232mb/d

  24. rockman on Tue, 25th Oct 2016 6:52 am 

    Mac – I’m not sure who the “they” are you’re referring to.

    “Consumers are beginning to have to decide between eating and oily product consumption”. If you say so. But you have your answer, don’t you: consumers are buying more “oily products” then ever before in history.

    So I take you don’t buy the measger 7% reduction in demand by 2035 this article predicts. What is your expectation?

  25. makati1 on Tue, 25th Oct 2016 8:35 am 

    rockman, if your assertion that “consumers are buying more “oily products” then ever before in history” why is trade falling all over the world? Why is less oil actually being consumed and more stored? Can you give me facts to prove your assertion? I don’t see any in what I read and see. Growth has stopped for the world economy. Only bullshit propaganda numbers are saying it is still growing. But then, your god seems to be oil so what can I expect except more bullshit.

    2035 is going to see little oily demand. I see zero economies based on oil by 2035. Maybe not even enough humans to fill a medium sized country left on Earth if Hillary gets her finger on the nuclear button.

    Even if there is not a nuclear war, there will be a world war. When the financial system goes down, it will take most of the big corporations down with it, Especially oil. We will go back to the 1800s, if we are lucky.

  26. Dredd on Tue, 25th Oct 2016 8:42 am 

    “World oil demand to drop” (On the West Side of Zero – 2).

  27. Mark Ziegler on Tue, 25th Oct 2016 9:19 am 

    A good reason why the demand will drop is because the supply will not be there.

  28. rockman on Tue, 25th Oct 2016 11:15 am 

    Mak – “…if your assertion that “consumers are buying more “oily products” then ever before in history” What “assertion”??? Or do you not believe the very high production numbers posted by virtually ever bean counting authority?

    World economy growing? Not growing? Hell if I know. LOL. All that’s important to the oil patch is that those portions of ther global economies that consume larger volumes of oil are doing just that…consuming quantities at record breaking levels.

    IOW as far as our business is concerned we don’t care how the economies in Greece, Somalia, Nicaragua, etc. are doing. LOL.

  29. Kenz300 on Tue, 25th Oct 2016 1:46 pm 

    Electric cars, trucks, bicycles and mass transit are the future. Fossil fuel ICE cars are the past.

    Think teen agers vs your grand father. cell phones vs land lines.

    NO EMISSIONS. Climate change is real..

    Uber’s Otto completes first shipment by self-driving truck: an autonomous beer run with Budweiser

    https://electrek.co/2016/10/25/uber-otto-first-shipment-self-driving-truck-autonomous-beer-run/

  30. Zoe George on Tue, 25th Oct 2016 2:15 pm 

    “The oil consumption in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will drop by 27 percent. The oil demand will increase by 11 percent in developing countries from 2015 to 2035, while it will begin to gradually decrease after 2029,” said VYGON Consulting. “As a result, the share of non- OECD countries in oil demand will increase from the current 51 percent to 61 percent by the ends of the forecast period.”

    A 27% drop from today’s consumption in the OECD implies that either wind/solar/nuclear have mushroomed, or that OECD aging economies are in trouble.

    A rise of only 51% to 61% of global oil consumption for emerging markets doesn’t sound as if they are booming either.

    => boring, poverty-stricken future for our kids.

  31. Apneaman on Tue, 25th Oct 2016 2:32 pm 

    Oh look at all the passion for the 2035 predictions. Get fucking real.

    Scientists Warn the Collapse of This Glacier Could Be Globally Catastrophic

    “But if this ice sheet goes, as some climate models have formidably simulated, sea levels could rise by as much as 12 feet. That’s enough to flood 28,800 square miles of coastal land in the United States alone.

    For many experts, the question isn’t if this is going to happen, but when.”

    http://motherboard.vice.com/read/scientists-warn-the-collapse-of-this-glacier-could-be-globally-catastrophic-thwaites

  32. Apneaman on Tue, 25th Oct 2016 10:19 pm 

    Boat, here is a prediction/possibility for 2035 from senior scientist Peter Wadhams – “… a world authority on sea ice has taken Peter Wadhams to the polar zones more than 50 times, travelling on foot and by plane, ship, snowmobile and several nuclear-powered submarines of the Royal Navy.”world authority on sea ice

    “A business-as-usual approach by humanity makes 2035 a plausible moment for the permafrost to melt and methane to escape. The worst floods, fires, droughts and storms we have seen will be as nothing to what Africa, Asia and the Americas experience in this scenario. Millions die. Low-lying areas are inundated. Survivors live in a patchy post-apocalypse. Europe’s current refugee crisis would be dwarfed.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/aug/21/farewell-to-ice-peter-wadhams-review-climate-change

  33. makati1 on Tue, 25th Oct 2016 10:36 pm 

    I wonder how many have considered the possibility that the volcanoes under that area might just erupt when the weight of that ice is released and the land rises?

    https://s23.postimg.org/vkoeicgqj/Antarctic_Volcanoes.jpg

    What would an erupting volcano or volcanoes do to the speed of melt? After all, there are 40 some volcanoes on the continent of Antarctica.

  34. Apneaman on Wed, 26th Oct 2016 10:14 am 

    The Realities of Sea-Level Rise in Miami’s Low-Income Communities
    While Miami Beach pours money into adaptation, residents in other parts of the county are waiting for the help they need.

    http://www.citylab.com/weather/2016/10/sea-level-rise-is-affecting-miami-low-income-communities/505109/

    Why would climate denying floridians, including the governor, pour all that money into adapting to something they don’t believe is happening? I guess they think all that water in the streets at every high tide or minor storm is all part of that elaborate “grant money” hoax. Big fucking waste since by 2035 most of it will have been abandoned along with many coastal areas of the gulf states and eastern seaboard – most vulnerable place on the planet for SLR. Look out Virginia.

    Tangier Island fights for its very existence

    “Even if the proposed seawall is built, it will provide only a partial remedy. More such man-made barriers would be required to give Tangier a fighting chance.”

    http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/article_ef4beb8e-c914-5fe8-a0cb-942e60be258f.html

  35. Apneaman on Wed, 26th Oct 2016 10:22 am 

    Not everyone/where needs to wait for 2035.

    “We Have Nowhere to Go” — Sea Level Rise is Devouring the Coast of West Africa

    “Moreover, megacities like Lagos (population 5.6 million) and large cities like Accra (population 1.6 million) are increasingly threatened by the encroaching waters. In Accra, the rainy season now causes an annual inundation of sections of the city — a new impact that resulted in 25 people losing their lives last year. Nouakchott, the capital of Mauritania and home to approximately 1 million people, now sees the loss of 80 feet of coastline along its Atlantic shore every year. Meanwhile, parts of Togo lost 118 feet of shore line last year alone. Along the coast from Gambia to Senegal and including communities like Cotonou and Lome, growing numbers of houses, hotels, restaurants, roads, and even water treatment plants are now little more than washed out husks and crumbling bits of infrastructure — lapped by a rising tide.”

    https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/25/we-have-nowhere-to-go-sea-level-rise-is-devouring-the-coast-of-west-africa/

  36. Kenz300 on Wed, 26th Oct 2016 11:29 am 

    The worlds is moving to a more sustainable future.
    Fossil fuels are the past.

    Renewable energy overtakes coal as world’s largest source of power capacity

    https://electrek.co/2016/10/25/renewable-energy-overtakes-coal-as-worlds-largest-source-of-power-capacity/

  37. Apneaman on Wed, 26th Oct 2016 2:51 pm 

    These Antarctic glaciers have experienced staggering ice loss — and scientists think they know why

    “Now, research increasingly suggests it’s not just atmospheric warming that’s causing all the problems in West Antarctica, but the influence of the ocean as well. Many glaciers in this region back right up to the edge of the sea, terminating in what’s known as an ice shelf — a ledge of floating ice that’s disconnected from the bedrock and juts out into the water, helping to stabilize the glacier and hold back the flow of ice behind it.”

    ” If an ice shelf thins or breaks, the glacier behind it begins to pour ice into the ocean and retreat inland.”

    http://wapo.st/2eS7x12

    The ice shelf thinning and/or breaking is not an if but a when (2035?). It’s like a cork or dam and when that land ice slides into the ocean – remember the displacement method from elementary school science?

    Good thing humans are so wise eh?

    Sandy’s Lessons Lost: Jersey Shore Rebuilds in Sea’s Inevitable Path
    Superstorm Sandy crushed N.J. communities like Toms River, but InsideClimate News and WNYC report that rebuilding has not accounted for rising seas.

    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25102016/hurricane-sandy-new-jersey-shore-rebuild-climate-change-rising-sea-chris-christie

    Of course it hasn’t. You on your own and if you live in any of these vulnerable areas and don’t move while you can still get value for your property you will regret it. Sooner or later one of the next big storms will trigger a rush to the exits and then it will be too late. Even if the humans stopped all emissions today and forever there are many meters of SLR locked in. Inertia is a bitch.

  38. Apneaman on Wed, 26th Oct 2016 4:58 pm 

    Another monumental human achievement.

    Half a Kilometer of Ice Gone in Just 7 Years — West Antarctica’s Smith Glacier Points To Nightmare Melt Scenario

    “Ultimately, seas rising by multiple meters this Century are a very real possibility under current warming scenarios in which such a series of cascading melt events occurs in West Antarctica.”

    https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/26/half-a-kilometer-of-ice-gone-in-just-7-years-west-antarctics-smith-glacier-points-to-nightmare-melt-scenario/

  39. Apneaman on Fri, 28th Oct 2016 12:02 am 

    They say it takes 1 gallon of water to grow each California almond. I luvs me some almonds. I wonder if there will be any in 2035?

    California Drought To Enter 6th Year, Colorado River States Struggle to Avert Water Crisis, Southeast Drought Worsens

    “Around the world, global warming is starting to have a serious impact on rainfall in the subtropics and middle latitudes. The tropical atmospheric circulation known as the Hadley Cell is expanding toward the poles. This expansion is causing clouds and storms to move further north. And as a result, regions in the middle latitudes are starting to dry out.

    According to The World Resources Institute:

    A changing climate means less rain and lower water supplies in regions where many people live and much of the planet’s food is produced: the mid-latitudes of the Northern and Southern hemispheres, including the U.S. Southwest, southern Europe and parts of the Middle East, southern Africa, Australia and Chile.”

    https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/27/california-drought-to-enter-6th-year-colorado-river-states-struggle-to-avert-water-crisis-southeast-drought-worsens/

  40. Davy on Fri, 28th Oct 2016 8:02 am 

    How about these negotiation?

    “It’s a compounding drying influence that has pushed Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir, to record low levels. And states dependent on the great river’s water supply for farming and industry are now involved in negotiations to avert a water crisis in 2018. Forecasts predict a 50 percent possibility that Lake Mead’s water levels will fall below its mandatory rationing line. Such an event would result in water cut-offs for Arizona and Nevada.”
    http://tinyurl.com/gmz9djq

    But here is what they are negotiating instead:

    “NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said Wednesday that a study comparing Las Vegas to Oakland would be the next step in the process of relocating the team to a $1.9 billion, 65,000-seat domed stadium off the Strip.”
    http://www.reviewjournal.com/business/stadium

    Do you see a reality disconnect?

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