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World Exports versus Consumption, The ELM

World Exports versus Consumption, The ELM thumbnail

The EIA has updated their International Energy Statistics with annual production numbers through 2014 and export data through 2012. Sometimes these stats can be confusing as they include several types of production and exports. But for production I use only “Crude plus Condensate” and for exports I used “Crude Oil Exports” which I assume includes condensate as well.

Also the export data is not exact, just close, because some importers are also exporters. For instance in 2001 the US exported 59,000 barrels per day. In 2012 the US exported 629,000 barrels per day. The exporting of condensate is allowed in the US and since the Shale boom condensate exports have increased quite dramatically because Light Tight Oil is rather top heavy with condensate.

To get exports versus consumption for exporting nations I simply subtracted their exports from their production. The difference was what they consumed. Similar data can be found on the Energy Export Databrowser.

I think the data clearly endorses Jeffrey Brown’s Export Land Model.

World E v C

In 2012 76,160,000 barrels of C+C were produced per day. Of that 76 million barrels 42,845,000 barrels were exported while the other 33,315,000 barrels was consumed by the producing nations. That is this is oil that was never exported.

Middle East E v C

The Middle East is the world’s largest exporting geographical area. However in 2012 their exports dropped by 2,056,000 bpd while their consumption increased by 1,650,000 barrels per day. Obviously some Middle East countries were net importers however it is very likely that all Middle East imported oil was also produced in the Middle East so the above chart should be relatively accurate.

Saudi E v C

Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest crude oil exporter. The EIA says, in 2012, their exports dropped by 1,227,000 bpd while their consumption increased by 1,600,000 bpd.

Russia E v C

Russia is pretty well tied with Saudi Arabia for the world’s largest producer of crude oil. But in 2011 Saudi exported 2,585,000 barrels per day more than did Russia. But in 2012 that difference dropped to 1,379,000 bpd. Well that is if the EIA’s data is correct.

Europe E v C

Of course Europe’s exports, of which almost 100 percent if from the North Sea, have been declining since they peaked in 2000. This chart only reflects the European oil that was not exported. It does not reflect total European consumption. Most of European consumption is from imported oil. 

Canada E v C

 

Canada is on of a very few places in the world where exports are increasing.

AAR Reports Rail Traffic  Crude Oil Carload Update

The AAR also reported U.S. Class I railroads originated 113,089 carloads of crude oil in the first quarter of 2015, down 17,982 carloads or 13.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2014.

I did the math. Using an average of 700 barrels per carload that works out to be 879,581 barrels per day in the first quarter 2015, down from 997,279 bpd by rail in the fourth quarter a drop of 117,698 barrels per day. Because the fourth quarter had 92 days as opposed to 90 days in the first quarter, that works out to be 11.8 percent instead of the 13.7 percent stated above. However an 11.8 percent decline in crude oil rail traffic is one hell of a drop in the first quarter.

And it was mostly Bakken Oil!  Moving Crude Oil by Rail

North Dakota, and the Bakken region more generally, have accounted for the vast majority of new rail crude oil originations. According to estimates from the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, around 750,000 barrels of crude oil per day were moving out of North Dakota by rail as of mid-2014, equivalent to more than 60 percent of North Dakota’s crude oil production.

Ancient Bacteria Sweat Fuel Under New Mexico’s Desert Sun

Under the desert sun of New Mexico, scientists have engineered ancient bacteria to produce carbon-neutral ethanol using just the sun, waste carbon dioxide and non-potable water. The fuel that results could one day be cheaper than oil. Bloomberg’s Ramy Inocencio reports from outside the oil town of Hobbs.

Alga, in this case cyanobacteria, the most primitive of bacteria, they say, can be turned into ethanol at the rate of 25,000 gallons per acre per year. That works out to be 595 barrels per acre per year. But looking at this operation it looks like a very expensive operation. Please watch this 3 minute 22 second video and give us your opinion in the comments section.

Texas’ oil and gas industry lost 8,300 jobs in April — the most in nearly 30 years

Although oil prices have rebounded about 36 percent in the last month to about $59, many companies are still going through with previously announced plans for layoffs and reduced capital spending this year. That’s affecting job growth in Texas — the nation’s top oil production state — and other states.

The last time Texas lost this many oil and gas jobs was in 1986, with a drop of 9,000 jobs. That was also during the last big oil crisis.

Goldman Sachs sees $45 oil by October

The downturn in activity sparked optimistic sentiment among oil traders that the markets have adjusted, and could be on their way back up.

Not so fast, says Goldman Sachs. The investment bank argues in a new report that not only is the oil rally a bit premature, but that the rally itself will be “self-defeating.” The rally could bring drillers back, but that would merely contribute to a reversal in price gains. More drilling and more production worsen the glut that has not yet been resolved, and prices could be in for a double dip (or triple dip if you count the price declines from February to March 2015).

The Goldman Sachs report says that the problem is not just from a surplus of crude, but also a surplus of capital. Access to cheap finance has allowed production companies to stay in the game and continue to drill new wells. Even companies that have seen their cash flows dry up or have run into liquidity problems have still been able to find investors willing to pony up fresh capital.

 Quote of the day. The U.S. is definitely losing its train of thought

Several surprising forces are gathering to take down the Happy Motoring matrix. Peak oil is actually not playing out in the form of too-high gasoline prices, but rather a race between a bankrupt middle class unable to pay the total costs of motoring and an oil industry that can’t make a profit drilling for hard-to-get oil. That scenario is plain to see in the rapid rise and now fall of shale oil.

While browsing on Google News I saw the above quote and thought “Damn, that says it far better than I ever could. That hits the nail squarely on the head.”

Peak Oil Barrel by Ron Patterson



22 Comments on "World Exports versus Consumption, The ELM"

  1. NONY on Fri, 22nd May 2015 4:02 pm 

    ELM is meaningless as is EROI and the rest of peak oil nonsense. Just look at the glut and how cheap oil is. This is just a smokescreen of BS

  2. Davy on Fri, 22nd May 2015 4:14 pm 

    NOo, you can discount ELM but like other peak oil dynamics you can’t dismiss them. When you take all the various peak oil dynamics together in aggregate you have some serious mojo for a corn to explain away.

  3. dubya on Fri, 22nd May 2015 4:19 pm 

    Nonsense, indeed.

    Oil crisis – ha! We have proven that the planet is comprised of a thin layer of rock floating on a core of pure diesel, and thus it will NEVER run out – we can suck all the oil out and burn it with abandon, leaving just a small foil wrapper that may be crumpled up and dropped under the seat of the bus.

    Here a glut,
    there a glut,
    everywhere a glut glut.

  4. Plantagenet on Fri, 22nd May 2015 5:16 pm 

    Its misleading not to show a plot for the USA, because the USA is where most of the gains in oil production have occurred.

    There wouldn’t be an oil glut now if not for the huge increases in US oil production from tight shales.

  5. apneaman on Fri, 22nd May 2015 6:30 pm 

    Its misleading not to show a plot for debt that will be sucked out (bail in) of your pension fund.

  6. apneaman on Fri, 22nd May 2015 6:38 pm 

    Plant, how is the weather in your neck of the woods?
    //////////////////////////////////////////

    Record heat roasts parts of Alaska, where it’s warmer than Washington, D.C.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/05/22/record-heat-roasts-parts-of-alaska-where-its-warmer-than-washington-d-c/

  7. Speculawyer on Fri, 22nd May 2015 6:43 pm 

    Rising temperatures in the Mid-East and more people with air conditioners is not going to help the oil-exports of the mid-east. That’s why they were desperately looking for natural gas in Saudi Arabia and why many of those countries are now installing solar PV like crazy.

  8. Plantagenet on Fri, 22nd May 2015 6:58 pm 

    @apneaman

    I was just out jogging—its hotter then #@$%

    Its Global Warming—coming soon to a neighborhood near you.

  9. apneaman on Fri, 22nd May 2015 7:13 pm 

    Stay frosty Plant.

  10. apneaman on Fri, 22nd May 2015 7:16 pm 

    Nony, try not to spend so much time in traffic.

    Air Pollution Reduces Cognition, & Not Just Via The Lungs

    http://cleantechnica.com/2015/05/22/air-pollution-reduces-cognition-not-just-via-the-lungs/

  11. rockman on Fri, 22nd May 2015 8:02 pm 

    I didn’t bother spot checking the rest of this article after reading the following BS

    “Texas’ oil and gas industry lost 8,300 jobs in April — the most in nearly 30 years….The last time Texas lost this many oil and gas jobs was in 1986, with a drop of 9,000 jobs. That was also during the last big oil crisis.”

    Who the f*ck cares how many oil patch jobs were lost in April? Just one service company alone laid 11,000 off The best guess so far is a total of 120,000. And I recall the body count back in the 80’s wasn’t 9,000 but on the order of 300,000 to 450,000.

    None of which is very important to folks outside the oil patch but perhaps indicates some effort to spin the down turn as not such a big deal. But regardless of the cause of the error it implies some serious credibility problems IMHO.

  12. Rodster on Fri, 22nd May 2015 9:54 pm 

    I don’t know if this type of weather is normal for Russia?

    “Apocalyptic rainstorm floods Moscow streets, lightning blasts gas station”

    http://rt.com/news/261337-moscow-thunderstorm-floods-streets/

  13. GregT on Fri, 22nd May 2015 11:06 pm 

    Nothing normal about the weather anywhere these days Rod. The scariest part about it? Mother Nature is only starting to get warmed up.

  14. apneaman on Sat, 23rd May 2015 1:08 am 

    Civilization Collapse 3.0

    What is Working?

    “I have been writing about the problem we face for many years now. While the signs of a collapse scenario are now coming into sharp relief throughout the world, the basic fundamental reason for the collapse of global civilization that I have belabored over that time has not changed. Civilization is facing increasing declines in net free energy per capita. Free energy (also called exergy) is that which enables useful economic work, i.e. producing food, shelter, etc.”

    http://questioneverything.typepad.com/question_everything/2015/05/civilization-collapse-30.html

  15. Nony on Sat, 23rd May 2015 2:13 am 

    Different nony from me, above. But I agree. ELM is a total joke. Brown takes no notice of gains in production by non exporting countries (e.g. USA), the key story of the last 4 years.

    He’s a silly billy. “Triangle of doom” in other posts. Crap like that, that confuses time versus volume for supply-demand curve (price versus volume).

  16. Nony on Sat, 23rd May 2015 2:26 am 

    Actually time versus price is doom triangle silliness. Almost like the voodoo of technical stock pickers (LITERALLY sitting in darkened rooms, looking at charts for candlesticks and head and shoulders and crap like the triangle of doom…rather than doing NPV calculations).

  17. shortonoil on Sun, 24th May 2015 9:15 am 

    “None of which is very important to folks outside the oil patch but perhaps indicates some effort to spin the down turn as not such a big deal. But regardless of the cause of the error it implies some serious credibility problems IMHO.”

    There seems to be a number of sites across the internet that insist on using the “official” unemployment numbers, although even a cursory review of corporate announcements, shows that they are badly flawed. Whether that is the result of poorly informed people, or those who are part of the spin machine is difficult to determine. Regardless, it makes discerning the real situation much more difficult for the reader.

  18. shortonoil on Sun, 24th May 2015 9:44 am 

    He’s a silly billy. “Triangle of doom” in other posts. Crap like that, that confuses time versus volume for supply-demand curve (price versus volume).

    Since 1900 the volume of oil consumed has exactly matched the amount that has been extracted. If it had not there would now be one gigantic inventory of oil in the world – not 3 or 4 days worth. That occurred regardless of the price; which has varied from ¢10/ barrel to $100/ barrel. In other words, the demand curve has exactly mapped the supply curve from day one independent of the the price. Your supply/ demand claim doesn’t hold, and the last 120 years proves it. It is just one more example of Econ 101 nonsense!

  19. Nony on Sun, 24th May 2015 11:22 am 

    Duh…you effing moron. I completely accept that production and consumption match. Obsessing on inventory draw and build is for morons. What matters is volume though. If it is up and price is down, supply MUST be the primary reason.

    You people really don’t know the most basic concepts.

  20. Davy on Sun, 24th May 2015 12:16 pm 

    NOo, you normally use your Captain Marm handle to be an asswipe. Are you just getting lazy?

    NOo, you monkey slapper, join the 21st century. There is a thing called systematic disequilibrium and in our case currently we have demand growth stalling and oil volumn that is a mal-investment of production yielding oil too expensive to be beneficial to the economy. A wonderful unintended consequence of you gods at the Fed and the steady natural depletion of oil’s value to the economy.

    This is now adversely affecting the economy and the oil sector depressing prices. This is not the only cause but a part of the excess debt seeking yields creating broad based mal-investment. It is obvious your Econ 101 nutter noise can’t explain the end of growth and depletion of oil’s value to the economy. Climb back into you nest and chew on that one.

  21. Northwest Resident on Sun, 24th May 2015 1:39 pm 

    Davy — It may be that what we’re witnessing with Nony/marmico is a merging of the two personalities into one. As ugly and foul and idiotic as the spectacle is, perhaps it is a necessary step for Nony/marmico to become one personality and a step closer to dealing with reality. Or, perhaps, combining the two will just produce an extremely rude and obnoxious denier of reality for f’ing ever. The fate of this trollish dynamic duo hangs in the balance — which way will the pair of numbskulls fall?

  22. GregT on Sun, 24th May 2015 3:09 pm 

    “You people really don’t know the most basic concepts.”

    You are attempting too solve a complex problem with ‘basic concepts’ Nony. Just like a child in grade two trying to use basic arithmetic to solve an algebra equation. You don’t have the skill set needed to understand the problem, never mind solve it.

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