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Why Was Al Fin Predicting an “Oil Glut” in 2006 At the Height of Peak Oil Hysteria?

Why Was Al Fin Predicting an “Oil Glut” in 2006 At the Height of Peak Oil Hysteria? thumbnail

A Lot More Energy Where That Came From

Global Hydrocarbon Endowment

In 2015, at a time of a relative oversupply of and underdemand for oil, it is easy for oil journalists to write about an “oil glut,” as if they had invented the concept. But in the years leading up to 2008, an oil glut was the furthest thing from the minds of most oil writers — particularly “peak oil” writers.

And yet, in the 2006 Al Fin Energy blog article, Suffering Peak Oil Fatigue? Prepare for a New Oil Glut!, Al Fin predicted the discovery of a lot of new oil via newer, relatively unused high-tech methods of oil exploration.

In a 2010 Oilprice.com article, Al Fin went on to begin sketching some ideas of “ancient oil,” and how it was very likely that most of the world’s oil, gas, coal, kerogens, bitumens, etc. had yet to be discovered.

The Al Fin Energy blog then created an entire new category of articles under the label “ancient oil.” The first article in the category was misplaced, but if you scroll past to the article titled “Do Oil Wells Re-charge Themselves,” and subsequent articles, you will find a wonderland of intelligent but generally uninformed speculation about what we at Al Fin call “the whole systems approach to oil.” For those who enjoy speculating “beyond the pale” on energy sources, the “ancient oil” label offers something of interest.

By 2012, Al Fin was sufficiently emboldened by his amateur sleuthing in energy to label peak oilers “The Walking Dead of Peak Oil.” That article was but one of many contained in the “Peak Oil” category label of Al Fin Energy articles.

Other categories of interest at that blog include “oil exploration,” “ oil production ,” “ unconventional hydrocarbons ,” and “peak ingenuity.”

It is difficult to predict anything, but especially the future. It was not until 2010/2011, for example, that Al Fin began to become enthusiastic about the prospects for “shale oil” in North America and other parts of the world. But once interested, it did not take long Al Fin energy analysts long to begin to see the many profound impacts that shale oil was likely to have on the oil producing world — including Russia.

Sure, Al Fin once believed in CO2 global warming, impending global energy shortages, Malthusian scarcity of food and other critical resources, overpopulation, human egalitarianism, and the importance of big government redistribution schemes. But the mark of a thinking person is not the mistakes he makes, but in whether or not he is willing to learn from mistakes and misconceptions.

“Trust” but verify. And I’m not really sure about the “trust” part. (The only sane people left in the world are the two of us, and I am no longer certain about you.) 😉

If you hold a strong, fixed opinion about something, there is a very good chance that you have gone badly wrong about some — or most — aspects of your opinion. “Everything you think you know, just ain’t so.” And that is at least partially true for anything and everything you believe.

But in spite of all that, we need to feel free to let our ideas, speculations, and inventive thoughts soar — and damn the critics! That is one of the best ways to solve problems, and not let ourselves wallow in perceived dooms.

Then go back and check your past thinking, to facilitate new learning.

alfinnextlevel.wordpress.com



11 Comments on "Why Was Al Fin Predicting an “Oil Glut” in 2006 At the Height of Peak Oil Hysteria?"

  1. Plantagenet on Mon, 23rd Feb 2015 8:16 pm 

    The current oil glut probably has as much to do with a weak global economy and weak demand as it does with increased supplies.

    Yes, we are in an oil glut.

    No, there is no reason to expect it to continue indefinitely. In fact, as soon as the excess supply gets sopped up, we’ll be right back worrying about peak oil

  2. Davy on Mon, 23rd Feb 2015 9:08 pm 

    There are reasons to believe a glut could last or come back after a brief spike. Planter, have you ever heard of something called collapse. Did they teach that in Econ 101. I don’t remember studying collapse in Econ 101. We may be in a bumpy descent cycle of supply and demand destruction. IOW a slow collapse. Why does there have to be anything similar to the past if we are in a new paradigm of descent. The rules will change and the result will differ from historic trends.

  3. dave thompson on Mon, 23rd Feb 2015 9:17 pm 

    Was this article “ghost” written by one of our favorite visiting brothers, here at the comments in Peak Oil News??

  4. rockman on Mon, 23rd Feb 2015 9:37 pm 

    Never heard of Al Fin before. But thanks to the characterization in the piece I’ll be able to skip any future contributions from such an “expert” source. LOL.

  5. GregT on Mon, 23rd Feb 2015 9:57 pm 

    More news from Al Fin:

    Are All Black Women Diseased Crack Ho’s on Welfare

    “No, it is not true that all black women are diseased crack ho’s on welfare. Only about 50% of black women have genital herpes……”

    https://alfinnextlevel.wordpress.com/2015/02/22/are-all-black-women-diseased-crack-hos-on-welfare/

    No wonder these idiots think that we’re in an oil glut. They aren’t capable of rational thought. They’re even giving the Republicans a bad name.

  6. GregT on Mon, 23rd Feb 2015 10:20 pm 

    Sorry, no disrespect meant towards rational thinking republicans.

  7. green_achers on Tue, 24th Feb 2015 8:19 am 

    “Sorry, no disrespect meant towards rational thinking republicans.”

    Or unicorns. Don’t forget unicorns.

  8. Dredd on Tue, 24th Feb 2015 8:26 am 

    When is Peak Glut?

  9. Davy on Tue, 24th Feb 2015 8:52 am 

    Greg, rational & republican are incongruous juxtaposition. I should know I am from a 1%er family.

  10. Errata on Tue, 24th Feb 2015 8:54 am 

    Here the data as Malthus was right:

    list of famines

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_famines

  11. Revi on Tue, 24th Feb 2015 11:37 am 

    “Gluts” have a way of sorting themselves out. Can you imagine having too much money, or firewood?

    This stuff is concentrated energy.

    We aren’t using as much because we can’t afford it, but it will get used.

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