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Why The Shale Oil “Miracle” Is Becoming A “Debacle”

Consumption

Energy is everything. 

This is an amazingly important concept. Yet it’s almost universally overlooked.

Sometimes it’s hard to appreciate the magical role energy plays in our daily lives because most of what we experience is a derivative of it. The connection is hidden from direct view.  Because of this, most people utterly fail to detect or appreciate the priceless and irreplaceable role of high net-energy fuel sources (such as oil and gas) to our modern lifestyle.

With high net-energy, society enjoys increasing complexity and technological advances. It’s what enables us to pursue massive goals like desalinating billions of gallons of seawater, or going to Mars.  But without high net-energy fuel sources, our capabilities quickly regress to those of decades — or even centuries — past.

Which is why understanding where we truly are in the ‘net-energy story’ is so incredibly important. Is the US on the cusp of being “energy independent” from here on out? Is the “shale miracle” ushering in a glorious new ‘boom’ era that will vault America to unprecedented prosperity?

No. The central point of this report is that the US is deluding itself when it comes to energy abundance (generally) and oil (specifically).

Yet that’s not what we hear from the cheerleaders in the industry or in our media. From them, we hear a silver-tongued narrative of coming riches — a narrative that contains some truth, some myth, and a lot of fantasy.

It’s those last two parts — the myths and fantasies — that are going to seriously hurt many investors, as well cause a lot of extremely poor policy and investment decisions.

The bottom line is this: The US shale industry resembles a fraudulent Ponzi scheme much more so than it does any kind of “miracle”.

How do I know that?  Because, collectively, US shale companies have lost cash in every year of their existence.  The burned through cash when oil was $100 — and again when it was $90, $80, $70, $60, $50, $40, and $30 a barrel.  They burned through cash in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.

You don’t have to be a finance guru to appreciate or understand that any industry that persistently burns through cash is a bad deal.  Especially one whose prime product – shale wells – principally deplete (-85%) in roughly three years.  If you’ve been in business for 9 years drilling wells that mostly run out in 3 years, and you haven’t managed to produce positive cash flow at any point along the way, then it’s time to admit that your business model simply doesn’t work.

As even The Economist magazine recently noted:

The [US shale] industry has also lifted productivity. Drilling is faster, more selective and more accurate, and leakage rates are lower. Wells are being designed to penetrate multiple layers of oil that are stacked on top of each other.

 

But the fact that the industry makes huge accounting losses has not changed. It has burned up cash whether the oil price was at $100, as in 2014, or at about $50, as it was during the past three months.

 

The biggest 60 firms in aggregate have used up $9bn per quarter on average for the past five years.

 

As a result the industry has barely improved its finances despite raising $70bn of equity since 2014. Much of the new money got swallowed up by losses, so total debt remains high, at just over $200bn.

(Source)

Let’s run that math. Five years is 20 quarters. That times $9 billion/quarter is $180 billion dollars in cumulative operating losses. This begins to give us a sense of the magnitude of losses investors will face when the music finally stops.

Or we could note the $200 billion of total debt outstanding for the industry.  Hmmmm…with WTIC oil at $47/barrel, a typical wellhead price (that the operators actually receive being less than WTIC, always) might be closer to $40.  $200 billion divided by $40 means that 5 billion barrels of future wellhead production is required just to pay back the debt!

If the industry decided to use the next 5 billion barrels coming out of the ground to debt reduction (it never would decide this, but bear with me for the sake of this intellectual exercise), we’d also need to include the time value of money (and actual production rates over time) and observe that the debt carries an interest rate of 5% to 8% (depending on the company). Taking that into consideration, then the next 6 billion barrels would be required to satisfy the debt, plus interest payments!

Oh, right. And then there’s the issue of repaying the $70 billion of equity raised since 2014. With some sort of return, if possible, of course.

I hope you see the same staggering disconnect in these numbers I do. Which is why, without have to go too far out on a limb, I’ll state that massive losses are coming to the (bag)holders of all this debt and equity.

So why care? Because you need to understand these details in order to position yourself properly for the future. The implications are enormous.

The Danger Behind Myths and Fantasies

Once you become aware of the magical thinking involved, you then have a chance of knowing why the future is going to be very difficult for the shale industry, its investors, and then the nation(s) depending on its oil production.

Hey, sometimes myths and fantasies are harmless to hold. Like dreaming that someday you’ll be a major rock star.

But some can be incredibly damaging because they lead to poor life choices and decision-making. Like emptying your bank account to bet on the Powerball lottery, where your chances of winning are 292,201,338 to one. Or committing your nation to a ground war in Asia thinking you can “win”.

The promise of US shale oil is a very dangerous siren song. It was so carefully marketed to gullible investors that even Obama’s speechwriter and fact checkers got swept along.  This is from Obama’s State of the Union speech from 2014:

Now, one of the biggest factors in bringing more jobs back is our commitment to American energy.  The all-of-the-above energy strategy I announced a few years ago is working, and today, America is closer to energy independence than we’ve been in decades.

(Source)

What does “energy independence” mean?  It turns out, this crowd-pleasing phrase is a fantasy that lacks any useful grounding in reality.  What  those who claim “energy independence” are doing are lumping all forms and sources of energy into a single bucket, and then asking if the size of that bucket matches our current demand.

This is an inappropriate and dangerously misguided way to look at things is because the various types and sources of energy are not interchangeable.  They don’t function the same way. They generally can’t be substituted for each other. And they don’t cost the same.

For example, your automobile might run on gasoline which costs $2.50 a gallon.  Suppose instead you could buy coal cheaper than gasoline on a BTU basis; is that any help to you as an auto driver?  Would you suddenly put crushed coal into your gas tank instead of gasoline? No, of course not.

What if you had a micro hydro plant operating in your backyard and could extract a more Kilowatt hours of electricity from it each week than you needed. Would that make you “energy independent?”

Not if you drive a car that requires gasoline. Or cook on a gas-powered stove. Or heat your house with an oil-burning furnace.

The same is true for the US (or any country). A country is not “energy independent” unless it can meet all of its national energy demands with enough BTUs in each of the needed fuel types. Just looking at oil alone, the US still imports millions of barrels per day — even with the “shale miracle”. I’ll get into this more deeply in just a moment.

But first, back to the myth of “energy independence”. The EIA itself has been a major proponent of this useless data glob as seen in their most recent 2017 Annual Energy Outlook:

(Source)

So, when the US lumps all of its various sources of energy into one spot – including hydropower, wind, solar, coal, oil and natural gas – nothing useful emerges from that method.  We cannot know from it if we will have too much or too little of any one type of energy, or how much we’d be under or over budget in selling the surplus of one and buying to cover the deficit of another.

The delusion has only gotten worse under Trump. The useless and misleading clumping of energy into a single bucket has morphed into an even larger error; one shared by many otherwise intelligent “experts”.

See if you can spot the error (I bolded it so you shouldn’t have too much trouble):

Trump Hails ‘Energy Revolution’ as Exports Surge

June 27, 2017

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump on Tuesday hailed an energy revolution marked by surging U.S. exports of oil and natural gas.

 

Trump cited a series of steps the administration has taken to boost energy production and remove government regulations that he argues prevent the United States from achieving “energy dominance” in the global market.

 

“Together, we are going to start a new energy revolution — one that celebrates American production on American soil,” Trump said in a statement, adding that the U.S. is on the brink of becoming a net exporter of oil, gas and other energy resources.

(Source)

It is a massive error to state that the US “is on the brink of becoming a net exporter of oil.” While I can see how that conclusion follows logically from all the disinformation provided about “energy independence” and the hype spouted by Wall Street and the shale companies — it’s totally false.

The US is NOT on the brink of becoming a net oil exporter. And it almost certainly never will be.

Here’s the data:

(Source)

The above chart tells us that, to become a net exporter, the US would have to both hold demand steady (i.e. not increase consumption at all) while also boosting production by nearly 5 million barrels a day (mbd).  That is, the entire current output of the shale “revolution” would have to be replicated, because current total shale oil output in the US is around 5 mbd

But it would actually be harder than that. As already mentioned, shale wells have ferocious decline rates; so an additional 5 million barrels per day would require adding to new production aggressively each year to offset this ongoing extreme loss of production.

Well, before another shale ‘miracle’ comes roaring out of the gate we’d need two things: enough new places to drill and more massive injections of capital.  Both are suspect at this point.

One analyst doing a superior job looking at the details is Rune Livkern of Fractional Flow, who made this excellent chart estimating that in the Bakken play, one of the best-performing  shale basin darlings of the entire “revolution,” the cumulative negative cash flow between 2009 and 2016 (a full 7 years of history) totaled some -$32 billion in losses:

(Source)

Now why do shale oil operators keep burn cash in every time period?  Especially given the hype that they’re constantly becoming better and more efficient at drilling.  Better productivity should mean better profitability, especially when you have the big operators like Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) constantly saying things like this (from their last investors conference call):

“Our break-even oil price is $20 a barrel,” Frank Hopkins, Pioneer’s senior vice-president, told an industry conference in London this week. “Even in a $40 world, in a $50 world, we are making good returns.

(Source – Bloomberg)

A company breaking even at $20 should be rolling in cash with oil at $45.  But they aren’t.

Here’s the cash flow chart from PXD.

(Source)

Ouch.  What explains the huge gap between the company’s own statements and its actual performance?  How can the entire industry be doing so poorly?

This mystery is solved by some basic research showing that as the price of oil moves up or down, so too do the breakeven prices:

Dr. Anas Alhaji, an economist and oil industry consultant based in Texas, along with Al Rajhi Capital, compiled the breakeven points for the largest shale producers between 2014 and the start of 2017. When placed alongside a graph of the spot price of WTI oil from the end of three quarters prior, it appears the breakeven points for shale are actually a function of the past price of oil itself.

 

This indicates that because shale costs are not fixed or even stable, the industry will likely struggle to achieve consistent profit unless the labor market and vendor markets are transformed.

 

Essentially, shale should struggle to achieve sustained profitability, no matter the price of oil.

(Source)

Here’s the chart produced by that study. It’s plain ugly for shale investors, for a couple of reasons:

(Source)

First, the blue line is the weighted average breakeven cost to produce oil from shale wells.  Second the orange line is the WTI price of oil — it’s usually below the blue line.

Keep in mind: the WTI price is always higher than the price the operators actually receive at the well head for their produced oil because of shipping and other costs.

So mystery solved. Costs higher than revenues = Losses.

This chart says “These companies do not make money doing what they do.”  The companies’ own financial filings say the same thing.  There’s no real mystery here.  These companies are losing money and they have been for years.

So, when will this really start to matter? And how will it likely play out?

What can investors do to position themselves to hedge against or profit from the inevitable losses that will be realized in this industry? Given the size and the importance of this sector and its product (oil), the repercussions will be felt far beyond the share companies themselves, up to and including sovereign assets.

PeakProsperity.com



35 Comments on "Why The Shale Oil “Miracle” Is Becoming A “Debacle”"

  1. onlooker on Sun, 27th Aug 2017 7:37 am 

    https://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21719436-exploration-and-production-companies-are-poised-go-another-investment-spree-americas
    “Shale’s second coming is testament to Texan grit. But the industry’s never-say-die spirit may explain why it has done next to nothing about its dire finances. The business has burned up cash for 34 of the last 40 quarters, according to figures on the top 60 listed E&P firms collected by Bloomberg, a data provider. With the exception of airlines, Chinese state enterprises and Silicon Valley unicorns—private firms valued at more than $1bn—shale firms are on an unparalleled money-losing streak. About $11bn was torched in the latest quarter, as capital expenditures exceeded cashflows. The cash-burn rate may well rise again this year.”

  2. MASTERMIND on Sun, 27th Aug 2017 8:29 am 

    Conventional Oil Peaked in 2006 –IEA-NATURE

    http://imgur.com/a/uCz7V

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/has-peak-oil-already-happened/

    New Oil discoveries by scientists have been declining since 1965 and last year was the lowest in history –IEA

    http://imgur.com/a/W60yn

    We have been draining our oil reserves by consuming more oil than we discover since the 1980’s -ASPO

    http://imgur.com/a/uJ0Rg

    Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% – Wikileaks

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks

    International Energy Agency Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Saudi Aramco CEO believes world oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/07/10/saudi-aramco-ceo-believes-oil-shortage-coming-despite-u-s-shale-boom.html

    UAE warns of world oil shortages ahead by 2020 due to industry spending cuts

    http://www.arabianindustry.com/oil-gas/news/2016/nov/6/more-spending-cuts-as-uae-predicts-oil-shortages-5531344/

    Halliburton says oil will Spike due to oil shortages by 2020 After $2 Trillion in Industry Cuts

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-12/halliburton-sees-2020-oil-spike-after-industry-cuts-2-trillion

    Wood Mackenzie warns of oil supply crunch and world oil shortages around 2020

    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Next-Oil-Price-Spike-May-Cripple-The-Industry.html

    HSBC Global Bank warns 80% of the worlds conventional fields are declining and world oil shortages by 2020

    https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/24/vzchQwb

    UBS Global Bank warns of industry slowdown and world Oil Shortages by 2020

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12136886/Oil-slowdown-to-trigger-supply-crisis-by-2020-warns-bank.html

    MarketWatch : Why investors’ should brace for a devastating oil shortage ahead around 2020

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-should-brace-for-a-devastating-oil-shock-ahead-2017-07-03

    German Government (leaked) Peak Oil study concludes: oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 90% of all industrial goods, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governments/democracies

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/peak-oil-and-the-german-government-military-study-warns-of-a-potentially-drastic-oil-crisis-a-715138.html

    The Oil Age may come to an end for a shortage of oil. -Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Yamani

  3. Kenz300 on Sun, 27th Aug 2017 9:43 am 

    Invest in the future. Fossil fuels are the past.

  4. Cloggie on Sun, 27th Aug 2017 1:09 pm 

    First item Dutch news: Canada, Fort McPherson. Dutch weatherman inspects personally with chopper.
    Disappearing permafrost, resulting in imploding soil, “Swiss cheese”.

    Good news for renewable energy industry, oil industry not so much.

  5. Shortend on Sun, 27th Aug 2017 1:53 pm 

    Ahh, you guys just don’t know how to figure out the way to read financial statements per rocdoc…he’ll set them (us) all straight!
    Really…he will…

  6. sunweb on Sun, 27th Aug 2017 8:39 pm 

    Mastermind thanks for the list.

  7. DMyers on Sun, 27th Aug 2017 10:17 pm 

    Martensen tears ’em up. How many times have we heard about the $20 or so break even for shale? How were we to know, even if skeptical? Martensen has cleared that up. Regardless of what they say, they’re not breaking even at $20, or more.

    This changes the entire dispute. On the one side we have the shale oil believers, the shalers. On the other side we have the shale oil skeptics, the shale-tics. The shalers’ only saving argument was this rather preposterous but undisputed claim to shale profits at current market prices. This went to prove that shale was not a symptom of peak oil, but, rather, a viable stand in for conventional oil, i.e., the savior from peak oil.

    That argument is now moot. Shale is a monumental economic loser at current market prices. Not saying this, alone, somehow wins the shale disputes for the shale-tics. But it presents a major problem for shalers, as it removes the only compelling argument they had.

  8. GregT on Sun, 27th Aug 2017 11:06 pm 

    Cloggie said:

    “Disappearing permafrost, resulting in imploding soil, “Swiss cheese”.
    Good news for renewable energy industry, oil industry not so much.”

    There is no such thing as renewable energy, and adding even more energy into the mix will do absolutely nothing to stop imploding soil “Swiss cheese”. It will only make matters even worse than they already are. Not exactly even basic engineering 101. They did teach you about environmental constraints in your ‘schooling’ Cloggie? Or did they fail to mention that?

  9. Bloomer on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 12:19 am 

    The Shale oil industry is kept afloat by issuing more junk bonds. Investors chasing yield purchase these bonds as investment grade bonds pay little in return. We all should be aware how the story ends. Think back to the dot.com bust and the housing crash. Black Swans are circling around the shale oil industry.

  10. Apneaman on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 1:44 am 

    clog, you are probably confusing Fort McMurray/the Tar sands/Mordor with Fort McPherson which is way the hell up north and has very little in the way of fossil fuel industry, although they were once hopeful. Plenty of forts in Canada although none are needed now as the White conquers subjugated the native long ago and we all buy our dry goods and sundries at Walmart (they don’t trade for fur either). Now we just give the natives cheques. It’s cheaper that way and relieves all that white guilt (none of which I have ever felt) for many. It pisses off some of my buddies and that makes me laugh. Even some cities, like Calgary, started as forts. You can still go visit the fort and you should because Alberta needs them tourists dollars now that the dream has died.

  11. Cloggie on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 1:49 am 

    No, Fort McPherson:

    https://nos.nl/uitzending/27063-nos-journaal.html

    See [2:39]

  12. Cloggie on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 2:10 am 

    There is no such thing as renewable energy, and adding even more energy into the mix will do absolutely nothing to stop imploding soil “Swiss cheese”. It will only make matters even worse than they already are. Not exactly even basic engineering 101.

    With an unparalleled stubbornness tries Greg to sabotage efforts to do something about the predicament, although I have at least explained to him hundred times that efforts do have results:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/07/24/europe-leading-the-way-in-reducing-greenhouse-gases/

    In Europe 23% less CO2 since 1990 and we are working overtime to get rid of the remaining 77%.

    But that is not good enough for Greg. Because, you see, it would be still “industrial” and that is a no-no for our wannabee Kogi/Chief Seattle fake-Indian, with probably at least a few hundred thousand in his bank-account, a big truck in front of his house in the jungle, TV-s, Apple computers, satellite dish, solar panels and a host of goodies from the despised “industrial civilization” and who has still plans to jet to all sorts of interesting Indian places all over America. At least he recently sold his private plane, probably named “Apache” or similar.

    Now I don’t give a f* about your bank account, truck or whatever, but you can be a little hypocritical at times, Greg.

    I hope you don’t mind that we in Europe will continue our “industrial” efforts in setting up a renewable energy base, so that not only miljonairs will survive, but also mere mortals.

    And of course put you in our pocket, because this empire charade has now lasted long enough. And as good old Michael Gorbachev already knew, He who comes too late is punished by life.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/08/27/17th-century-dutch-wind-power/

  13. Apneaman on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 3:28 am 

    Fort McPherson – melting permafrost and falling lakes = yes. Fossil fuel industry there = no, but plenty of pipeline talk for decades.

    Pushed by climate change: Lake in Northwest Territories falls off cliff

    Unnamed lake near Fort McPherson, undermined by melting permafrost, collapses into valley below

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/lake-in-northwest-territories-falls-off-cliff-1.3361790

  14. twocats on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 8:03 am 

    DMyers comment – nuff said

  15. MASTERMIND on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 1:10 pm 

    Trump Orders Military To Give Cops Free Grenade Launchers, Bayonets, And Tanks

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-police-tanks_us_59a4052ee4b0821444c4869c?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009

  16. GregT on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 1:31 pm 

    “Now I don’t give a f* about your bank account, truck or whatever, but you can be a little hypocritical at times, Greg.”

    There is a big difference between living in modern industrial society, and stating the obvious fact that industrialism will not save humanity from the consequences of industrialism.

    There is only one viable solution, and it’s more than likely even too late for that now. A huge reduction in our population numbers, and the collapse of modern industrialism. Both are coming, like it or not. Attempting to sustain the unsustainable isn’t exactly intelligent.

  17. onlooker on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 1:39 pm 

    Don’t worry Greg, we are past the point of words. Events are going to vividly and I dare say harshly wake the sleeping

  18. GregT on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 1:56 pm 

    Your leaders Cloggie:

    DIRECTIVE OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL

    on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources (recast)

    “The European Union (EU) has long been worldwide leader in the promotion and development of renewable energy, steering the effort to combat climate change, encourage the shift to a low-carbon economy and stimulate high-potential economic growth.”

    High potential economic growth?
    Infinite exponential growth, in a finite environment, is a mathematical and physical impossibility Cloggie. Yet you continue to listen to these idiots like they have some kind of magical powers.

    “Renewable Energy Sources (RES) contribute to climate change mitigation through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, achieve sustainable development, protect the environment and improve citizens’ health.”

    ‘Sustainable development’ is an oxymoron, and development does not protect the environment, it destroys it. More lunacy from your beloved leaders.

    http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52016PC0767R%2801%29

  19. GregT on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 2:03 pm 

    And one more thing Cloggie. Humans cannot ‘combat climate change’. We have likely already baked a runaway greenhouse event into the cake. The only intelligent thing to do at this conjecture, would be to stop now, and face the consequences. Adding even more greenhouse gasses into the environment, in no way solves that problem, it makes it worse. The humans have found a new God in themselves. More commonly called technology.

  20. MASTERMIND on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 3:39 pm 

    Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné warns we are going to have oil shortages around 2020 due to lack of investment

    http://www.boursorama.com/actualites/je-suis-convaincu-qu-on-va-manquer-de-petrole-selon-le-pdg-de-total-patrick-pouyanne-9b2d911a65572f5f989a74319b68d296

  21. onlooker on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 3:54 pm 

    Yeah MM, the entire Oil Matrix is wobbling and ripe for collapse soon. From lack of Net Energy, to the Petrodollar system, to the status of the old legacy fields, to lack of investments in brining online new reserves, to weak and weakening consumer demand. Finally, the analysis of Etp models shows how strained the oil system is now to remain viable as a principal energy source.

  22. Cloggie on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 4:06 pm 

    High potential economic growth?
    Infinite exponential growth, in a finite environment, is a mathematical and physical impossibility Cloggie. Yet you continue to listen to these idiots like they have some kind of magical powers.

    Haven’t the faintest idea what “high potential economic growth” means. “Potential” in my book means “not yet realized”.

    Global CO2 is three years flat now:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/06/02/us-withdraws-from-paris-agreement-on-climate-change/

    The EU is growing yet at the same time has lower CO2 emissions.

    You want to reduce the population in order to reduce environmental pressure? Now let me see…

    It makes most sense of course to get rid of those folks with the highest energy consumption footprint. Now where do they live?

    http://tinyurl.com/9vu6rew

    Have you ever made an audit concerning your own footprint, Greg? I bet you are pretty high in the pecking order with these long drives.

    It doesn’t make sense to lecture about the desirability of the end of industrial civilization if you do not give the good example.

    It is not realistic. No politician has the power to command that the entire population should live in a wigwam. “Paris” is generally accepted, away from fossil likewise, at least in Europe. that’s a start.

    And for the rest we can only pray that Dudley is right when he says that a doubling of CO2 (which we could very well get) leads “only” to one degree Celsius extra, that would be 2-3 degrees increase in total after exit permafrost:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2016/12/31/matt-ridley-on-global-warming-vs-global-greening/

  23. MASTERMIND on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 4:53 pm 

    There are two possibilities, in my opinion, when the age of oil ends.

    1.) Collapse, chaos and death of our species.

    2.) Controlled depopulation (afterwards: iron boot stamping on a human face — in perpetuity. Aka feudalism improved by modern technology.

  24. GregT on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 7:19 pm 

    “Have you ever made an audit concerning your own footprint, Greg? I bet you are pretty high in the pecking order with these long drives.”

    Which long drives would those be Cloggie? I bought my truck new in October of 2012. It now has 23,000 km on the clock. If we do feel the need to drive any distance we take the wife’s car, a 2015 Honda Fit. We heat with wood in a high efficiency stove. No air conditioning, well water, and gravity fed septic. Our electric is 100% from hydro, and we buy local food whenever possible. During the summer months we do not buy produce, it is all from our own gardens.

  25. GregT on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 8:43 pm 

    “And for the rest we can only pray that Dudley is right when he says that a doubling of CO2 (which we could very well get) leads “only” to one degree Celsius extra, that would be 2-3 degrees increase in total after exit permafrost:”

    I have no illusions that a runaway event is not in our future Cloggie. Mankind is not going to stop burning fossil fuels, too little too late. We have been repeatedly warned since the 70s. We didn’t listen then, and we still aren’t listening now. 2 degrees C was the limit set by an economist, 1 degree C was the original do not exceed limit. We are already at 1.4 C, and it would appear that the methane clathrate gun is already firing. There are so many self reinforcing positive feedback mechanisms in play now, that it is hard to keep track of them all.

  26. Makati1 on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 10:07 pm 

    GregT, I agree. The only thing that will stop, or even slow down, the burning of FF is a nuclear war. Let’s hope it doesn’t go that far. Anyone who believes that humans have some godlike power to change physics, or even the ability to change the world’s habits on a dime, is delusional. It bodes nasty for anyone under 50, but it is too late to do more than prep to make the decline less painful.

  27. Denial on Mon, 28th Aug 2017 10:22 pm 

    I was in Canada recently and was very dismayed at the large vehicles and SUV’s everywhere….if Canada can’t get its act together no one will…..

  28. Anonymous on Tue, 29th Aug 2017 10:26 am 

    Oil volume is up and price is down. Martensen was wrong over the years about peak oil and now is in denial. This article practically bleats with a whine. Frackers crashed his little doom party. Poor guy.

  29. GregT on Tue, 29th Aug 2017 10:34 am 

    Martensen is one of the few who has identified the relationship between the 3’E’s. Energy, The Environment, and The Economy.

    Nony is one of the dumbed down masses who continues to ignore this blatantly obvious relationship. Nony will eventually figure it out, the hard way.

  30. Davy on Tue, 29th Aug 2017 12:07 pm 

    Nony is light years ahead of you grehg in understanding energy. You have a hollow environmental record being a fake green hypocrite. You have a hard time figuring out economics because your anti-American agenda gets in your way. IMA, Nony has manners and you have none.

  31. GregT on Tue, 29th Aug 2017 12:20 pm 

    “You have a hollow environmental record being a fake green hypocrite.”

    Which hollow record would that be Davy? More delusions? You’re in serious need of help buddy.

  32. Davy on Tue, 29th Aug 2017 12:22 pm 

    this is wonderful!!! keep it up grehg. we got a bet going on how long you can go.

  33. GregT on Tue, 29th Aug 2017 12:26 pm 

    “we got a bet going on how long you can go.”

    We? More delusions Davy. Thanks for your continued comic relief. Try your best not to bitch slap the dog.

  34. Denial on Tue, 29th Aug 2017 5:04 pm 

    Greg I am really surprised at how easy you are bated and your anger and bitterness…I live near the Canadian border and every time I go to Canada I am shocked at how nice and sensible the people are there….A lot of “can do ‘ people there not what I get from you and apeman here….

  35. GregT on Tue, 29th Aug 2017 8:40 pm 

    Denial,

    I spent my afternoon today, volunteering as Vice President of my local community association, working on several different facets of emergency preparedness and disaster response. As proud Anti-American Canadians, my wife and myself have already sent a donation to hurricane victims in Texas, through the Red Cross.

    How about you?

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