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Page added on May 11, 2017

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When Oil Stops Pumping Is Game Over

Consumption

There is a consensus between industry leaders and analysts that world oil production will peak between 2010 and 2030, with a significant chance that the peak will occur before 2020. Dates after 2030 were considered implausible by some.
Meaning that by the year 2020 the daily production of oil will only decrease. Now, I’m aware that there are many debates if we could find more oil here and there. Well, besides the fact that the above consensus is a conservative one and many even points to the possibility that peak oil already occurred, the hope of finding new fields and sources and on a profitable scale of production is not likely. Even if new oil fields were found, peak oil would still occur, we would postpone it and make Earth even more polluted and make the problems we face now much worse, but it would still happen, think about it.
There’s no resource that you can infinitely drag from the planet. And oil is been dragged in a velocity much higher than the velocity of its natural production.

Let’s see how important oil is for the maintenance of that population bubble:
From the moment oil started being used in industry, that population graph starts to really spike up (read my last post).
There are 10 calories of fossil fuels being used for every calorie of food being produced. We use oil engine machines to fertilise the soil, to plant, to spray pesticides (made from oil), to harvest, to transport and package grains, seeds and vegetables. Think about it, every step of the food production and transportation involves oil in its various forms.
There are 7 barrels of oil in every tire in a normal car or motorcycle.
Every plastic is oil so we are talking about basically every product packages, paints, cellphones covers, toothbrushes, bags, wire protections, bottles of every size and kind, the list goes on and on.
As of now, daily production is barely matching daily demand.
The moment oil becomes too scarce and expensive, it can definitely initiate the burst of the population bubble.

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20 Comments on "When Oil Stops Pumping Is Game Over"

  1. Newfie on Thu, 11th May 2017 6:40 pm 

    The Olduvai Gorge theory will be proved correct.

  2. Go Speed Racer on Thu, 11th May 2017 7:54 pm 

    Probably more like 7 gallons of oil in every tire.

    Just estimating cause i burn them in the backyard
    to make my neighbors cough. Don’t think it
    would be 7 barrels, they could see that clear across town.

  3. survivalish on Thu, 11th May 2017 9:51 pm 

    tires don’t cost $240 each

  4. survivalish on Thu, 11th May 2017 9:53 pm 

    yet tires don’t cost $240 each…

  5. tk on Thu, 11th May 2017 10:15 pm 

    Peak was 2005.
    WAS!

    Supply chain interruption and
    logistics stand still will cause
    the “game over” sooner
    than the “dead state” of an
    EROEI of 1:1, which will
    never be reached.

    Could/can be any moment
    since a couple years now…

  6. makati1 on Thu, 11th May 2017 11:43 pm 

    It appears that some tires DO cost $240 or more. Up to $750 according to this site.

    http://cars.costhelper.com/tires.html

    You get what you pay for. Glad I do not own a car now. Never will again. A too expensive luxury item.

    And, it is not just the oil in the actual tire but the oil it took to get it from the oil well to the final car installation. Probably several barrels. Seven? Maybe. It takes more oil to make a car than it will burn in it’s lifetime.

  7. Boat on Thu, 11th May 2017 11:57 pm 

    mak,

    The steel industry has improved its energy intensity over 60 percent since 1950. Thank goodness for continuing advances in tech. Your city food is shipped, train or trucked in on FF vehicles. Thank tech your not using 1950 transportation tech or ya’ll would starve.

  8. GregT on Fri, 12th May 2017 12:21 am 

    Boat,

    “Thank tech your not using 1950 transportation tech or ya’ll would starve.”

    The diesel engine is 1800s technology.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_engine

  9. makati1 on Fri, 12th May 2017 12:59 am 

    GregT, Boat’s world makes the one in “Alice in Wonderland” look absolutely rational. Facts are not important in his world, nor is history.

    Boat, it still takes a certain amount of energy to melt steel no matter what you use. That has NOT changed. It’s called physics. Oil, NG, electric, cow farts, ALL have to provide the same total energy to make a pound of steel.

    1950’s transportation tech is the same used today. Diesel trucks are still diesel trucks powered by … oil. Even the efficiency has not improved much in 60+ years. It takes the same TOTAL energy to move a ton of stuff a mile as it did in 1950, or 1850, or 3550 B.C.

  10. GregT on Fri, 12th May 2017 1:05 am 

    Boat doesn’t do physics Mak. He’s still stuck at basic grade school arithmetic, and he thinks that arithmetic is math.

  11. makati1 on Fri, 12th May 2017 2:08 am 

    GregT, so true. So true. ^_^

  12. Cloggie on Fri, 12th May 2017 2:14 am 

    https://cleantechnica.com/2017/05/11/offshore-wind-represents-major-challenge-competing-technologies/

    It begins to dawn on policy makers that offshore wind is rapidly becoming the cheapest form of electricity. Once you have your fleet of highly specialized offshore wind turbine installation vessels in place, it is a matter of one huge turbine installed in 24 hours:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/05/09/the-giants-of-a-new-energy-age/

    Wind energy may not be reliable on an hour-to-hour basis, on a year-to-year basis it is very reliable.

    The beauty with offshore wind power compared to offshore oil: with wind power there are no “dry holes”. What you see is what you get. Ram the monopile into the seabed and you know pretty accurately how many kwh’s you will harvest in the next 12 months. Low raw steel prices of a few hundred $ per ton makes life for the policy makers and investors easy. The first offshore wind parks without a dime of subsidy are being constructed as we speak.

    The only serious potential long term competitor of offshore wind could be fusion.

    For the rest, the die has been cast and the winner is offshore wind.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/07/gold-mine-north-sea/

  13. Boat on Fri, 12th May 2017 4:02 am 

    The deal with guys like mak and greggiet think 1950 tech hasent changed much in 57 years. They don’t think of the highest energy users like refineries, steel, concrete, aluminum etc and looked at their energy use history. Alas they love to complain and critique even though they are just to intellectuals lazy to look it up. They will also call stats fake news or non trust worthy but have no problem with the same gov reporting murdre, homeless or poverty stats. If you point out an area where their country is just as bad or worse they reply with, not stastics but hate blather. Guys like this is why it will be a few generations before a civilized world will be possible.

  14. makati1 on Fri, 12th May 2017 5:29 am 

    Boat, your mind is wandering again. Time to change meds? Physics has not changed in billions of years. That’s why a rock thrown into the air still falls at the same rate and the moon says in place.

    The 400++ nuclear sites across the U$ will guarantee that any homo sapiens to survive the coming storm will not live long. We guaranteed that by producing over 400,000 TONS of radioactive waste so far and adding thousands of tons annually. Not that that will matter if the oceans die, as appears to be the case in progress.

    I research more than you ever did, Boat. I spent a year researching for a SF novel about what is currently happening. My comments are based on that research. I do not bother to ref them as it is a waste of time on people like you. You are blind and/or in deep denial. Those who are interested know how to google the facts. You are the one who lives in a propaganda/fake news filled country where truth is dead. Adjust or die. It matters not to me.

  15. Davy on Fri, 12th May 2017 5:55 am 

    shut up makati we don’t need your braggart bushshit. You are a lie and a joke.

  16. GregT on Fri, 12th May 2017 9:45 am 

    “The deal with guys like mak and greggiet think 1950 tech hasent changed much in 57 years.”

    The internal combustion engine is late 1800s technology Boat. All we have done since is figured out ways to tweak that tech so that it has become bigger, faster, and more efficient at burning fossil fuels. That efficiency has not resulted in us causing less damage to the earth’s natural biosphere over the last 100 years, in case you haven’t noticed.

    “They don’t think of the highest energy users like refineries, steel, concrete, aluminum etc and looked at their energy use history.”

    Energy usage of refineries, the manufacturing of steel, concrete, aluminum etc, have all grown exponentially throughout history. To pretend otherwise is to be ignorant of reality, or simply untruthful.

    “Alas they love to complain and critique even though they are just to intellectuals lazy to look it up.”

    Look it up yourself. Anyone with half a brain in their head doesn’t need to do so. It is self evident.

    “They will also call stats fake news or non trust worthy but have no problem with the same gov reporting murdre, homeless or poverty stats.”

    Homeless and poverty stats are also manipulated. Murder adds to GDP, and is good for the establishment.

    “If you point out an area where their country is just as bad or worse they reply with, not stastics but hate blather.”

    The human created borders that I was born into, are almost as bad as the ones that you were born into. In some cases worse.

    “Guys like this is why it will be a few generations before a civilized world will be possible.”

    Odds are very high that our species will not be around for a few more generations. If we had of put a little more effort into living in harmony with nature, as opposed to believing that we are ‘civilized’ and in control of it, we might have had a better chance. It is the ‘guys like you’, who are blatantly ignorant of reality, that are the biggest hurdles to systematic positive change. If we have any hope of surviving as a species on this planet, we need to learn how to stop destroying it with our “technologies”, and learn how to respect it, and to take care of it.

  17. Boat on Fri, 12th May 2017 12:16 pm 

    greggiet,

    Making a product that is more efficient/less material and less energy consumption has nothing to do with more of them. My laptop is much smaller, lighter, cheaper and uses less energy than my first desk top. I owned one computer in the 90’s, I own one now. Just one example of how silly your argument is. Don’t blame tech.

  18. GregT on Fri, 12th May 2017 12:31 pm 

    Boat,

    If computers still took up entire floors of office buildings, there would still be very few of them. Making them smaller and more efficient means that there are now billions of them as opposed to a small handful. Not only do you not understand economies of scale, how your monetary system works, your own government, the exponential function, basic physics, or even arithmetic for that matter, you do not understand Jevon’s Paradox. Efficiency does not result in less energy being consumed, but exactly the opposite.

    If you aren’t willing to make at least a rudimentary effort at understanding how things work, or at east being honest with yourself, please shut the fuck up.

  19. onlooker on Fri, 12th May 2017 12:36 pm 

    Making a product that is more efficient/less material and less energy consumption has nothing to do with more of them. — I have coincide with Greg here, that was NOT a very well thought out comment Boat. I am not attacking your person just the comment

  20. Jerome Purtzer on Fri, 12th May 2017 6:17 pm 

    Technology is really good at spawning more technology. Take a cell phone. Giant computer cloud/farms are being constantly built to store all of the data being created at an exponential rate. The computers storing this data must be replaced in a never ending cycle. At what point will this library of Babel collapse?

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