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Page added on January 22, 2016

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We ran out of oil in 2011. You didn’t know that?

A prediction from 1976:

“We need to have, uh, a realization that we’ve got about 35 years worth of oil left in the whole world. We’re gonna run out of oil.”

That scientific certainty was from candidate Jimmy Carter during the 1976 Presidential Debate.

Check it out for yourself:

Here is some math:

  • 1976 – date of prediction
  •     35 – years of oil left on entire planet
  • 2011 – year we ran out of oil

It must be a figment of my imagination that I have put gasoline in my car so many times in the last five years. Recall all those oil wells in North Dakota that are showing up on my blog? They must be made of cardboard.

Continuing his befuddled, fuzzy-brained analysis, Mr. Carter went on to say:

“We need to shift from oil to coal. We need to concentrate our research and development effort on coal-burning and extraction. It’s safe for miners. It’s also clean burning.”

More cardboard illusions in North Dakota under construction in September 2015:

Photo by James Ulvog.

Photo by James Ulvog.

 

OutRunChange



12 Comments on "We ran out of oil in 2011. You didn’t know that?"

  1. JuanP on Sat, 23rd Jan 2016 6:46 am 

    Food for morons!

  2. marmico on Sat, 23rd Jan 2016 7:08 am 

    The peak oil nutters can take solace in the fact that Hubbert in 1956 was more prescient than Carter in 1976.

    Hubbert predicted that the U.S. would be producing ~2 mb/d in 2011. ROTFLMFAO

  3. Dubya on Sat, 23rd Jan 2016 10:59 am 

    My ~1965 book called something like “moon base” told me that there would be people living on the moon in the 1970’s.
    I think it is time for me to go visit the moon.

  4. rockman on Sat, 23rd Jan 2016 11:28 am 

    “Hubbert predicted that the U.S. would be producing ~2 mb/d in 2011.” What Hubbert actually said was the the US oil fields he was modeling would be producing about that much oil in 2011. Turns out he was rather acurate. In his paper he specific said his prediction did not include the offshore and other yet to be developed trends.

    But that doesn’t stop some folks from attributing statements to Hubbert that hd didn’t make. Gives them something to ramble on about I suppose. lol

  5. marmico on Sat, 23rd Jan 2016 12:25 pm 

    Hubbert knew about shale oil (Bakken, 1951). Hubbert knew about Gulf shallow water (1947). Hubbert did not know about Arctic oil.

    Your job is to subtract Alaskan and deep water Gulf oil extraction from U.S. production and compare that number to the Hubbert prediction.

    No matter how you want to slice and dice, technology inexorably trumps depletion.

  6. peakyeast on Sat, 23rd Jan 2016 12:31 pm 

    I dont know the exact conditions behind carters prediction, but if you look at historic oil consumption – it certainly did not rise after 1970 as it did before. That in itself is enough to postpone a peak for many years.

    The fact the available energy per capita is declining even as population growth stagnates is strengtening the argument of a peak oil. Extraction is not scaling up fast enough.

    The purchasing power of the middleclass hasnt changed much towards positive since 1970s also a sign that the necessary resources at the right price is too few.

    If compared with gold:
    http://judymorrisreport.blogspot.dk/2015/09/unhappy-labor-day-how-federal-reserve.html

    The purchasing power has been cut down to 10% since 1970.

  7. penury on Sat, 23rd Jan 2016 1:44 pm 

    Everyone who has predicted peak oil has been wrong. Whoopee celebration time. The world can never run out of oil because we have not done so yet. Buy I am waiting for the crying and knashing of teeth when someone is correct. Whoopee

  8. onlooker on Sat, 23rd Jan 2016 2:09 pm 

    “No matter how you want to slice and dice, technology inexorably trumps depletion.” thanks good marker for the collective tombstone of humanity when it becomes extinct. That mindset is precisely above anything else what has bought us to this point.

  9. Boat on Sat, 23rd Jan 2016 3:30 pm 

    onlooker,

    And to not do so would to be not human. Will any mineral scarcity be replaced by another mix of elements or solution? Probably. Humans are good at problem solving. At least educated ones are.

  10. Boat on Sat, 23rd Jan 2016 3:34 pm 

    penury,

    Is life so bad you want the end of the world? Did you not get the go-cart or horse as a kid and it left you emotionally scarred? Wishful doomers are a trip.
    Peak oil will happen, just not yet.

  11. SilentRunning on Sun, 24th Jan 2016 12:43 pm 

    It’s like a 85 year old man saying “statistics show that my life expectancy was only 80 when I was born. I should have died 5 years ago, but I didn’t! Therefore, I will NEVER die!!”

  12. MaxData21000 on Mon, 25th Jan 2016 2:36 pm 

    This author a dumbass.
    Totally unaware they’ve changed the definition of oil?
    I don’t believe it. I believe the author knows full well the games the industry is playing.

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