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Page added on October 6, 2017

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The future of oil is almost here and it doesn’t look very pretty


The world is propelling fast towards a post-oil future when electric batteries will drive the world. After Elon Musk’s Tesla popularised electric vehicles (EVs), now is the turn for planes to go electric. Boeing and JetBlue Airways have announced they would begin selling a hybrid-electric commuter aircraft by 2022. Planned by start-up Zunum Aero, the small plane would seat up to 12 passengers and reduce travel time and cost of trips under 1,600 km.

A futurist and clean energy expert, Toni Seba, has predicted that electric vehicles would destroy the global oil industry after a decade. By 2030, 95% of people won’t own private cars which would wipe off the automobile industry, he says.

Electric planes are actually the third disruption in oil industry, After electric vehicles, the buzz grew around autonomous vehicles. Self-driven vehicles are going to deliver another big blow to the oil industry as they will reduce personal ownership of cars. The technology-driven models in mass transport such as Ola and Uber can lead to shared trasnport further reducing demand for oil. Seba has predicted that by 2030, 95 per cent of people won’t own private cars.

Now the battery-driven small planes will become yet another disruption. Since they are going to be cheaper than the current planes on smaller routes, they might get hugely popular.

That’s how global oil demand will go down and so will the prices. According to Seba, the global oil demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day by 2020, dropping to 70 million barrels per day by 2030. This would means, according to Seba, the price of oil plummeting to $25 a barrel.

India has declared it would be allow manufacturing of only electric cars by 2030. Not a single petrol or diesel car would be sold in the country after 13 years. This is an ambitious goal.

Recently, Union transport minister Nitin Gadkari had to warn the car-makers who are depending on hybrids. He said he was going to bulldoze the government’s plan through the market. Though it is unlikely that the government will force this goal on the industry, it has showna serious intent to disincentivise petrol and diesel vehicles. Advances in the battery technology are preparing ground for economic viability of the goal as new technology will encourage more automakers to jump on to the bandwagon.

Recently, Tata Motors, won a contract to supply 1,000 electric vehicles to the government. It stumped India’s only EV maker, M&M, when it quoted a far lower price — Rs 11.2 lakh each, inclusive of the GST and a five-year warranty, against M&M’s Rs 13 lakh. More Indian automakers will be veering towards EVs as technology improves, effective solutions for charging infrastructure emerge and benefits of scale become available.

The Indian automobile market is tipped to become the third largest in the world by 2020, according to estimates by JD Power and Ernst & Young. India’s share of the global passenger vehicle market will jump from 4% in 2010-11 to 8% in 2020. Global passenger vehicle demand is expected to hit 108 million units of which 50% or around 54 million units will come from the Asia, Pacific and Africa region. India’s passenger vehicle market is expected to hit 10 million units by 2020.

Imagine such a big industry shunning oil and going electric.

The end of oil will tweak the global geopolitical equations too. The Arab countries that have thrived on oil business will wield less influence and will have to open up their economy to other businesses.

The end of oil, now that it is in sight, promises to revolutionise businesses, economies, politics as well as lifestyle.

economic times

57 Comments on "The future of oil is almost here and it doesn’t look very pretty"

  1. deadlykillerbeaz on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 8:27 am 

    The future:

    Less oil will be consumed, however, not because of a increase in electric vehicles.

  2. Davy on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 8:41 am 

    killer Bee, how is China’s economy and population going to expand and the US loose 280MIL people by 2025. Don’t tell me you believe that shit.

  3. deadlykillerbeaz on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 8:47 am 

    No, I don’t believe it at all.

    It is 54 million less, not 280 million.

  4. Shortend on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 8:51 am 

    Sure, imagine this, imagine that…total BS…hybrid regional plane…holds 12 passengers….LOL….
    Sure thing…that will put a big dent in the oil industry…
    Another propaganda piece of SH*t to keep the sheeple there is a future without oil.

  5. Davy on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 8:55 am 

    no it is 280MIL less check out China

  6. deadlykillerbeaz on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 9:38 am 

    Looks like that is the case.

    Which means the stats are all less than credible.

  7. rockman on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 1:49 pm 

    “And how global oil demand will go down and so will the prices.” And once again the asinine concept that demand alone determines price. Apparently so brain dead they don’t recall that just several years ago, when oil was $100+/bbl, demand was significantly less then today. Today when oil prices are half of what it was when demand was less then just a few years ago.

    It is very easy to imagine that one day oil demand could be down to 80 mm bbls per day. And down because that’s the max producers can deliver. And the price of oil might be $50/bbl or $100/bbl. The price will be determined more by the health of the global economy then the amount of oil available to purchase or its price. Just as the dynamic has always worked.

    “…Tata Motors, won a contract to supply 1,000 electric vehicles to the government.” Wow! So exciting: a 1,000 EV’s in a country that is buying ICE’s at a rate of 3 million per year as of the first 6 months of 2017. Yes in deed: definitely a death knoll for petrofuels in India. LOL.

  8. MD on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 3:21 pm 

    Battery operated commercial aircraft? That remains a total fantasy. The energy to weight ratio has a very long improvement road before that happens.

  9. mick on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 3:30 pm 

    IF the price of oil will be $25 a barrel around 2030 most if not all producers will
    have shut down by then. How are they going to dig up all the raw materials to manufacture
    batteries, EVs, etc. My guess is the 1%ers have
    already thought of this and are storing crap loads of picks and shovels there will be billons of idle hands by then and labor will
    be cheap just a bowl of rice a day.

  10. mick on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 3:44 pm 

    Btw accordind to the hills group etp model $25
    per barrel would be around 2020 so we might have to get use to doing hard manual labor sooner than we think.

  11. onlooker on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 4:16 pm 

    According to the Etp, the Oil Industry is rapidly going broke and is already cannibalizing the rest of the Economy. In 2012, the energy/costs needed for the entire spectrum of utilizing oil to run modern economies was half or more than the total attained. Thus the end of the Oil age is in the horizon now.

  12. Mick on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 4:45 pm 

    you can always stay at a fema camp if your out of a job where every one gets a free wheelbarrow,pick, shovel and ride on the back of a truck to the nearest quarry.

  13. Bob on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 4:50 pm 

    Electric planes? I stopped right there. No need to go further.

  14. Darrell Cloud on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 6:10 pm 

    For there to be a market, there must be two prime players, buyers and sellers that are free to negotiate price. We are sitting here on the edge of a cratered economy and musing over why gas prices have not risen.

    On the seller’s side, i.e. the production side, there is a rather simple process in any mining operation. The large concentrations of the easy to get at stuff are always mined first. As the operation begins to deplete those easy sources, innovators introduce new technologies to augment production. The steam engine came into its own because there was a need to pump water out of coal mines. Those engines did not put more coal in the veins that were being mined. What they did do was make some inaccessible coal accessible. At some point the veins play out or the techniques needed for extraction become cost prohibitive and production stops. Either way, at some point coal mines close.

    On the buyer’s side, the sought after product must in some way increase income or enhance the standard of living for the purchaser. Oil does that for western civilization in a million ways. Oil is the single factor, the one ingredient, that if withdrawn will collapse our civilization in a matter of days. Nothing else is in place that can fuel our transports. Before alternatives could be brought on line the world wide supply chains would collapse. The resulting chaos would take down civilization.

    For this simple reason, nothing about the oil market is real. Everything is contrived and controlled. Still, there is a dynamic that is playing out below the surface. It has to do with the declining ratio that exists between the energy consumed in production and the remaining net energy available for sale. We are very rapidly approaching a zero sum game. We are getting to the point that the calories invested in production are exceeding the calories produced by the process. This declining ratio is evidenced in declining profit margins. In a real market, when extraction costs rise to the point that they exceeded the product’s market price, production would simply stop.

    That is not the case with oil. Unprofitable oil is being extracted the world over. The fact that it is not profitable is concealed first and foremost by a never ending line of credit that has been made available to producers. As long as the bills can be paid by borrowed money, the profit margins are irrelevant. The spice will continue to flow even at a loss. Secondly the full impact of this imbalance is being hidden to some extent by the simple fact that source of calories used in production are not identical to the calories produced by the process. Coal produced electricity will not power an F-16.

    Oil production will continue and prices will continue to remain low as long as the exponential credit creation continues. When credit collapses oil production implodes.

  15. onlooker on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 6:27 pm 

    One of the best summaries I have heard of energetic situation I have heard ever. Well said Darrel.

  16. Anonymouse1 on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 6:42 pm 

    It is so well phrased, I bet you a barrel of oil, (tight, fracked or tar, he wont care), that narrativeman will be along any second now and say of one two things (likely both).

    1) Only dollars matter in the oil business and that piles of summoned-from-air-dollars created in ledgers and at keyboards, will continue to produce infinite FF energy, now and forever.

    2) Narravtiveman will express his usual bemusement at people that clearly know ‘nothing’ about the ‘oil business’, having the temerity to actually comment on it.

    **He may, or may not add, how it is the narrativemans sole preserve to set the’ uninformed and naive straight on all matters oily. Even if he seldom does anything of the sort.

  17. JuanP on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 8:26 pm 

    If you want to fly anywhere do it now while you still can. Commercial flights will become a thing of the past in our lifetimes. We should be designing and building railroad networks made to last at least 100 years and run on wood. Electric commuter planes? LOL! Most people just don’t get it. The postmodern world will be like the premodern one only worse because of the ecological damage we’ve caused and our grotesque overpopulation predicament.

  18. Cloggie on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 8:40 pm 

    “Electric planes? I stopped right there. No need to go further.”

    I couldn’t care less if flying for the masses would disappear completely, but I’m afraid they will get electric flying to work.

  19. Cloggie on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 9:07 pm 

    I’m currently haring a reading “vacation” on the island of Ruegen in the utter north-east of Germany. Visited the harbor of Sassnitz yesterday and this location in particular:

    You see the foundations of the Arkona offshore wind farm that is currently under construction.

    Everywhere in Sassnitz you see large number of pipes pilled up, like in the picture, which I assume are intended to connect Germany to Russia once again (Northstream-2).

    Also saw the Jack-up vessel “Brave Tern” docked for picking up another batch of monopiles and rotor blades:

    The difference with the picture is that yesterday the rotors were preassembled.

    In the coming days I will visit Peenemuende where the rocket age began. I will see if I can find some Natzis to get the US space program going again, that is currently boldly going nowhere.

  20. makati1 on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 9:52 pm 

    “I’m afraid they will get electric flying to work.” Cloggie, how big would a battery need to be to fly 100+ tons 8,000 miles? (A loaded 747) It would be bigger than the plane and weigh even more. Ditto for even short hops of a few hundred miles. And how long to recharge the batteries? And where is the electric coming from to recharge them? Solar? Wind? Battery flying. LMAO

  21. J. H. Wyoming on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 11:16 pm 

    Really good summary Darrell Cloud.

    There should be a name for this brief period of advanced human civilization; I suggest ‘Financialization!’ A period of time in which the globe borrowed, dropped interest rates, printed, opted for cash for clunkers, went into debt and otherwise used the confidence people had built up over many years in the financial system, to pile up a whole heap of monetary trouble to buy as much time as possible in the HOPE something would come along to save our arses like fusion or scaled up algae oil or some new net energy surprise. It hasn’t happened yet so people are betting on renewables even to the point of considering very small scale electric flights. Not sure when this period ends, but have a feeling it will be very harsh when it does. Think of it this way; each day we get a little closer to the iceberg.

  22. Mick on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 11:21 pm 

    Hey Cloggie can you get me some of that stuff your smoking.

  23. Anonymouse1 on Fri, 6th Oct 2017 11:28 pm 

    Cloggen-fraud main-lines pure uncut Hopium. He doesnt bother with gate-way stuff like vacations on the moon, robot maids, and flying robo-cars anymore. They just don’t give him the buzzz they used to. He’s does the hard stuff now, like self assembling and replicating wind turbines, martian colonies(chosen ones only need apply), and ocean-going cargo ships that last for centuries.

  24. Cloggie on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 1:13 am 

    Despite the usual uninformed ramblings of the local doomer cult, fact is that Airbus, Boeing, EasyJet and others are working on electric flying.

    Oh and the electric planes in the videos I linked to are all real. But doomerism is a faith that can’t be defeated by facts. So gentlemen, on your knees, ass in the air and pray to your doomer Allah.

  25. Cloggie on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 1:21 am 

    “like self assembling and replicating wind turbines,”

    This crane is going to be tested in Holland later this year for the first time with the potential of greatly reducing installation cost:

    “martian colonies(chosen ones only need apply),”

    Mouse is the purest representation of the coming rule of Idiocracy in North-America:

  26. rockman on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 1:29 am 

    Mick – “IF the price of oil will be $25 a barrel around 2030 most if not all producers will have shut down by then.” I suspect you meant “development” and not “production”. The great majority of PRODUCING oil wells would still deliver a positive can flow at $25/bbl. Most greatly overestimate the cost to produce EXISTING wells. And even wells that will never recover 100% of the investment would continue to produce as long as cash flow stays positive.

    For proof just look back to the late 90’s when tens of thousands of stripper wells (<15 bopd) kept producing when oil was $25/bbl a d even considerably less.

    OTOH at $25/bbl the number of NEW wells drilled would be greatly diminished. And obviously with less production being replaced depletion would accelerate. Which could lead to higher prices…or not depending on the health of the global economy. When oil prices fell from record highs in the late 70's the drill rig count fell from 4,500+. Compare that to the recent collapse from 1,800. Obviously the numbers of wells drilled after the 70's boom was greatly reduced. But those high oil prices damaged the global economy so badly the US drill rig count averaged less than 1,000 for the next 20 years. And during that time US oil production declined.

    And not a surprise but the inflation adjusted price of oil for those 2 decades is about where current prices are now. And we also have about the same number of rigs drilling now as then.

  27. Mick on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 1:47 am 

    Ok thanks for that rock

  28. makati1 on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 4:03 am 

    Cloggie, show me a commercial sized plane that goes hundreds of miles on electric.

  29. Anonymous on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 4:21 am 

    A key issue with aviation is lifting the fuel that propels you. Some discussion of the energy density of gasoline versus batteries would be helpful. Granted the conversion of power from battery to rotors will be higher (90s %) than an Otto cycle engine (20-40%). But still, gasoline is very energy dense. Currently about 100 times the density of lithium ion batteries. Do the math on that and you can see that EV planes are not ideal.

  30. Fred on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 4:38 am 

    Earth is flat, batteries can fly and nuclear power is safe.

  31. Mick on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 5:47 am 

    Hey mak I think the most distance a commercial size 200 – 300 passenger elecrical (cordless) plane could reach would be 100 mile at best all the energy would be used up on take off then it would just glide to the nearest airport .

  32. makati1 on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 6:16 am 

    Sorry, but commercial sized airliners do not “glide”. When the power stops, they drop like a rock. They are under power for the entire trip for a reason. It is power or crash.

  33. Davy on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 6:32 am 

    If we were to look at a renewable age ahead in the abstract and in theory we would change our criteria. We would be guided by demand management principals and population controls. Air travel would not be high on the list of transport functions because of its poor ROI and cost benefits. It is obvious that mass air travel is not possible in a renewable age. Nor is it wise for us to spend excessive amounts of money to make a square cog round. A wise people would not even consider battery powered flight for mass travel. The fact that we are considering it shows how little wisdom we have as a people.

    We may utilize dirigibles with electric motors. Some electric aircraft will surely be useful in some niches but mass air travel is not an optimum way to travel in a new energy constrained renewable world. We need to focus on behavior if we are going to make the low EROI of renewables and their intermittency manageable. We don’t have the time to develop exotic technologies. We don’t have the prosperity. If we look at long distance travel then we should be looking at train and boat travel which are much more realistic candidates for electrification. Keep it simple and scale it up quick. We know cars are workable. Boats should also be utilizing sail power. Car travel can be adapted away from individual choice and more towards public good.

    The key is adapting behaviors and this is the primary reason why there will likely be no renewable age ahead. Behaviors are going to continue to be techno-optimistic instead of wisdom based sobriety of a coming age of difficulties. We need behaviors that reflect crisis not optimism in a gilded age. There is no golden decade ahead anywhere in the world. Since behaviors will continue to be growth based, consumeristic, discretionary, on demand, and performance based we are not going to adapt behaviors in the right direction. Demand management, population controls, resilience, and sustainability do not develop in our current status quo world. A shade of it here and there is possible but not a primary focus that is necessary to enter the new age of limits ahead.

    In this case renewables are still valid but only valid as extenders to the brick wall of limits. A wisdom based renewable world of demand management and population control is likewise an extender because we are at limits as a complex civilization but that brick wall could be extended out considerably further. Dangerous Anthropocene changes have been initiated and are unstoppable. Climate and planetary decline and localized failures are a fact of life no matter how much wisdom we muster. Social fabric decay and decline likewise cannot be avoided.

    Thus we must now realize renewables can help us extend our status quo modernism but not very far. Behaviors cannot be adapted enough to make a viable renewable age possible. We can have a last of the mini ages of modernism. The previous was the digital age and maybe the next is a mini renewable age. We can try to fly with batteries and plan trips to Mars to keep things exciting until the end. We can manufacture increasingly deadly weapons. We can make consumerism ever more satisfying until one day we wake up to a world where the lights don’t always work, gas stations don’t always have fuel, and sometimes we are very hungry. In the meantime fantasize and feel that wonderful feeling of exceptionalism that techno optimism gives. Pray to your false gods and continue to shit on Nature because you can. How long this will be possible is beyond prediction. If we continue to play war games not very long. Battery flight is a bogus attempt at the unsustainable. As an individual embrace wisdom and change your life. You can make a difference in your local.

  34. Mick on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 6:54 am 

    Good post Davy. spot on!!

  35. Cloggie on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 7:51 am 

    Makati, look at this video:

    From the top of my head, because I cannot play the video in the cinema of Werher von Braun’s home base in Peenemuende, where I am typing these words and watching a V2 movie…

    Full electric, two person, 44 kWh, 380 km, crossing the Alps at more than 4000 m. There are no physical laws preventing to scale this up to 20 or 100 people. The takeaway point is that currently the range is ca. 380 km on pure battery power. You can increase the range using hybrid systems, using ff to gain height and speed, while losing weight during flight.

    Airbus and Boeing would not set up development programs if a simple back-of-an-envelope calculation would show it can’t be done.

    Oh and makati, planes at 10 km and speed of 600 kmh do NOT drop from skies like a brick. I would not be surprised if they can glide for 100 km. Look ik up.

  36. Davy on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 8:48 am 

    Clog, when I was a pilot in the 90’s my small plane could glide a long distance. A 747 will drop out of the sky like a rock. Look it up

  37. TheNationalist on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 9:43 am 

    Jet aircraft at altitude have a glide ratio of 15:1
    I am a qualified commercial pilot. (hence my concern over fuel shortages and prices as I need to eat too).

    Use your brain people or fuck off with the guesses and comments.

    Sorry, but my whole career I get the same retarded questions: How safe issit mister pilote?… bla bla moan moan.
    I blame hollywood for the hysteria.
    I hope you’re right Cloggie re batteries but if I was a betting man I would be drifting towards the theory of the cynical doomer bastards (that appear to know fuck all about planes).

  38. Davy on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 10:16 am 

    And you don’t call this falling like a rock?

    I was exaggerating the falling like a rock. My point is if you lose all power a loaded 747 in the wrong situation especially very high altitude you can quickly be falling like a rock unless you are very good at establishing your dead stick landing maneuver.

  39. Cloggie on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 10:23 am 

    Shit, my nationalist friend from Australia beat me to it, but I stopped reading after Davy’s post, eager as I was to prove I was right. In fact I wasn’t, it is not 100 but 150 km as our resident pilot obviously already knew.

    Glide ratio is 15:1 for a 747.

  40. Cloggie on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 10:41 am 

    “I was exaggerating the falling like a rock”

    No you were plane

    Electric flying is technically simpler than flying on jet fuel. The bottleneck is the battery. A range of 365 km is not good enough. The sport is to increase energy density, that is kWh/kg battery weight. Airbus and Boeing are targetting 100p hybrid planes for the medium range, i.e. 700-800 km within a decade.

  41. Davy on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 11:02 am 

    Lol, how about controlled crash cloggie. Try landing a loaded 747 with no engines on anything other than a 5000 foot well maintained runway if you can find one and get back to me. You better not do anything wrong becuase if you go into a stall with no engines you are really pissing your pants

  42. Davy on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 11:04 am 

    How is I technically simpler ?

  43. TheNationalist on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 11:05 am 

    Thanks for the video link Cloggie, that has cheered me up. Some parts of aviation are struggling at the moment with the existing fuel prices (which have dropped for now). Maintenance costs of older tech is high and we need new hybrid technology quick in my opinion.

    You would like 10% or more left for a return/diversion or second approach just in case. The old “dead sticks” are not the safest.
    Davy, you are correct in a way. Just after takeoff with slow speed and Flap/Gear out etc the glide might drop to as low as 3:1 (if all thrust stopped instantly) but the wings always work.

  44. Davy on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 11:07 am 

    Cloggie, please tell us the 365km range applies to. It applies to a very small plane not a big jet aircraft. Stick to you wind rurbines you are talking out your ass with mass air travel with electric.

  45. Davy on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 11:13 am 

    Nationalist, I lost most of my power with my Cessna 150 at 3000′ over wooded country. I was lucky and landed in a field. I know you professional pilots are well trained. I just would like to be high enough up with a big airport nearby in good weather and daytime. But you are correct about gliding just look at what the space shuttle could do!

  46. Cloggie on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 11:14 am 

    E-planes are silent, so airports could operate 24/24.

    Flying e-planes is MUCH cheaper, think 1$ / 100 km

    Video: 2p, 365 km = 730 km on 44 Watt or 6 Watt on 100 km, which in the US is 1$.

    Too cheap to meter.

  47. Davy on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 11:17 am 

    If we could have a perfect world of decline we would focus are use of our remaining fossil fuel endowment on things like critical powered flight and leave the driving to electric. That is one way to overcome the issues. Surely we can make synthetic JetA for flying. The issues is probably not enough and cheap enough for mass consumer travel. We need to prioritize and be realistic with our technology. Battery powered 747 are not realistic.

  48. Cloggie on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 11:29 am 

    “Cloggie, please tell us the 365km range applies to. It applies to a very small plane not a big jet aircraft. Stick to you wind rurbines you are talking out your ass with mass air travel with electric.”

    Geez man, you just got your gliding ass kicked and already have a big mouth again.

    Why don’t you watch the last 30 seconds of the e-plane vid I posted to verify 2p = 365 km. Perhaps the real range is even better.

    Remember you are dealing with a trained energy engineer. If you scale things up you know that the outcome range will not be that much different. The advantage for larger planes is that the drag will be relatively less, because passangers are stowed behind each other, not next to each other.

  49. Davy on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 11:39 am 

    Clogg, tell the audience how many times you linked that reference. Geeze, once a month at least. Sure I have seen it.

    Drag will be relatively less???? You may think you are an energy engineer what ever that is but you are no aeronautical engineer so quit acting the part.

    Your little ass plane is insignificant in the bigger picture. It is a glorified glider.

    Like I said go back to preaching wind farms and get out of the airplane business you are losing your ass.

  50. TheNationalist on Sat, 7th Oct 2017 11:43 am 

    Congrats on the dead stick Davy, sounds like one of those mind sharpening experiences flying can bring and money cant buy.
    I do fly light aircraft in the charter world with the commercial licence but nothing heavy like a jumbo jet and Im not sure how “professional” I am.
    I think I spent too long in Cessna 200 series over mountains and forests. Maybe knowing I could glide to a clearing kept me going.

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