Register

Peak Oil is You


Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)


Page added on July 13, 2017

Bookmark and Share

The Coming ‘Peak Oil Plateau’ And Higher Oil Prices

The Coming ‘Peak Oil Plateau’ And Higher Oil Prices thumbnail

Summary

Oil demand and supply are both in the process of balancing and peaking.

Oil supply will fall before oil demand, creating a period of significantly higher priced oil.

OPEC and shale will be the main beneficiaries of higher oil prices.

According to the EIA, global oil supply and demand are roughly in balance right now.

Global Oil Supply and Demand

The World Oil Outlook, put out by OPEC, is a fascinating long read that projects oil demand will reach 99.2mbd by 2021 and 109.4mbd by 2040. Its analysis takes into account demographics, economic growth, technology advances, and other factors.

Among its assumptions is that “non-conventional powertrain passenger vehicles are expected to represent 22% of the car fleet by 2040, up from only 3% in 2014. Most of the growth will come from passenger BEVs, which are anticipated to increase to 141 million in 2040.”

While I believe that EVs and hybrids will represent well over half of all passenger cars by 2040 and nearly all of new car sales by then, the range of oil demand is relatively narrow from 99.2mbd to 109.4mbd. I roughly agree with OPEC’s short-term outlook because oil demand is still increasing prior to big EV and hybrid sales. Longer term, I believe the OPEC oil demand high-end is too high. In my recent Macro Monday piece, I project oil peaking by the mid-2020s.

Regardless of the ultimate high-end of the oil demand range, the key takeaway is that it is a narrow range, indicative of what I have been forecasting to be and calling a “peak oil plateau.”

Oil Supply Will Fall Before Demand Does

The price of oil remains low for now despite balanced supply and demand. The primary reason for cheap oil is that inventory was recently pegged by the EIA at 262 million barrels above the five-year average. While the inventory is significantly high, it is not so much that it supports the short trader’s repetitive narrative of “lower for longer” oil prices.

As Raymond James pointed out last week, the short oil narrative is “fake news.” While I am not a fan of Raymond James in general, I largely agree with the points they made in their recent “Energy Stat of the Week.” Here is a “top 10 list” they did of oil-narrative “fake news.”

Fake News The point that I think needs the most debunking is “Myth #2” which is that U.S. shale production is going to flood the market with more oil even at $35 per barrel. The idea that there will be a lot of American shale oil development in the current price environment that is economical is farcical.

With the exception of parts of the Permian and STACK/SCOOP in Oklahoma, very little shale oil is actually able to produce free cash flow below about $50 per barrel. That is why we saw such heavy hedging by oil companies late last year when oil was in the mid $50s.

Going forward, because physical, technical, and water constraints are limiting much in the way of further cost reductions for producing from shale, and because the best spots were drilled first, we should expect shale to need higher prices to be economic going forward.

While oil production by the U.S. will drift up to 10mbd by late this year or sometime next year, there is no surge coming. In fact, with many hedges running out at the end of this year, oil companies will rethink new capital investments until oil prices do rise. So, that raises the question, what will drive oil prices up?

The short answer is that increases in oil supply will have to not keep up with increases in demand. In the intermediate term, while OPEC roughly holds the line until it can pump more – its report suggests the early to mid 2020s – the key place we will see lower oil supply is in the deep water offshore.

Currently, offshore represents about 29% (28mbd) of global demand. As the EV and hybrid markets take shape, capital spending on new development will continue to lag as wary investors consider whether they will get paid back for investing in deep water oil megaprojects that take a decade or more to make their money back on. I covered that in depth in “Deep Water Drillers Are Doomed Even If Oil Prices Surge.

As deep water offshore wells decline and are not fully replaced, that will put pressure on land drillers to produce more. They will be challenged to do so unless oil prices rise. The cure for low prices ultimately still remains low prices.

In what will become the biggest irony in the oil markets, the impending end of the oil age due to EVs and hybrids is stifling the most expensive oil from being developed because it might not pay back investors fast enough to get paid in full. That phenomenon, in turn, will drive the price of oil up until legitimate demand destruction for oil actually happens.

The ultimate demand destruction for oil could play out over about three decades. What we don’t know is where the line eventually crosses for demand to fall faster than supply which has sunk in costs. I anticipate that crossover is not until the mid to late 2020s, although others, such as OPEC suggests it is not until around 2040. Either way, the 2020s look like a higher priced oil market.

Shorter term, over the next year or two, nobody truly knows what oil prices will do. Raymond James points out that global inventories are probably depleting faster than given credit for. If that is the case, then oil prices could rise faster.

I happen to believe that it is very likely there will be a disruption to Middle East oil supplies due to a war with or within Iran in the next couple of years. I wrote about that here. I also believe we are closing in on the end of the petrodollar era. Even if those things do not happen, the fundamentals are still taking shape for a more constrained oil supply market over time as investment will forever remain constrained as the end of the oil age runs off.

To wrap your head around why capital investment will remain constrained in the oil space, think about how lending shook out after the financial crisis. It was slow, even though we were entering what turned out to be a long recovery and there was plenty of liquidity. Oil has an opposite problem: the end of the oil age has begun, and capital is nowhere near as plentiful. Sure, some suckers took on more oil related high-yield debt lately, but that has already been drying up. Take a look at some of The Heisenberg‘s articles on oil-related junk debt to get a grasp on that.

Who Are the Real Winners When Oil Prices Rise?

In an article on MarketWatch in June of 2014, I first discussed the idea of a “peak oil plateau” for investors. In that article, I forecast that we would see a significant drop in oil prices and that it might be an unusually large decline.

“In the current short-term window, if there are no international threats to production and distribution, we could approach the lower end of the range by year end. Such a drop in oil prices could occur, largely due to increasing U.S. inventories, which reduces our need to import, thus putting downward pressure on prices.”

The reference price range to the above statement was $80 to $120 per barrel. At the time, the price of WTI crude was $103. I also said, “that’s not to say there can’t be out of the ordinary price plunges or spikes, however, should those occur, that opens the door for unique leverage opportunities by enterprising investors.”

The time for unique leverage opportunities has finally arrived after one false start. I believe that oil prices are putting in a floor now and will rise substantially in coming years with or without a supply disruption. Accumulating smart oil-related investments now gives you a free call on potential supply disruptions or a falling dollar should the petrodollar fail sooner than later.

During the coming window when oil supply is outstripped by oil demand, there will be some big winners in the oil space. The problem for investors is finding companies leveraged to rising oil prices that are not hamstrung by debt they cannot ever pay down and still have profits left to pass on to shareholders.

Investors will want to identify lower debt oil producers with “good rock” – there are precious few of those – and oil services companies that are highly levered to rising oil prices.

As I covered in a recent ETF File where I analyzed oil services ETFs, smaller oil services stocks are generally more leveraged to oil prices. The oil services ETF that fits that provides more relative access to the smaller companies is the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) which is equal weighted versus the market cap weighted approaches of its peers. I currently rate XES as a buy.

For stock pickers, there are several low debt companies within XES’s holdings to take a closer look at. One of my favorite holdings within XES is Helmerich & Payne (HP).

Helmerich & Payne is a contract drilling company and a market share leader in the U.S. with a large backlog of business. They are strong financially, with low debt and pay a hefty dividend over 5%. I will do a more complete breakdown of this company in coming weeks but believe you should put it on your radar. Its shares are currently down over 50% from recent highs and represent value in my opinion. I currently rate the stock a buy. I will provide a more comprehensive look at Helmerich & Payne this summer.

On the E&P side the drilling is rough. As David Einhorn has pointed out, the industry is loaded with debt. Analyzing any company’s real asset position value, which many companies overstate, to long-term debt is a must. Frankly, I am not high on most of the companies in the space because even if they do get the several years worth of great cash flow I am expecting, they would simply be paying down debt, not creating much shareholder value.

One company I am high on, that I did a more complete analysis on recently, is Encana (ECA). The company has a rich Permian Basin position, as well as, a good Eagle Ford position which it could sell. Its natural gas assets in Canada are very solid and represent an opportunity to transition to that longer time frame asset when they are done with oil. Encana spent several years reducing debt and becoming a very focused on just four core assets. The stock is down significantly again from last year’s rebound. I currently rate the stock a buy.

A company that for whatever reasons has flown under the radar in recent years is Occidental Petroleum (OXY). It is a company I am keeping an eye on for a few reasons. The first is that it has a solid balance sheet that won’t freeze out shareholders if oil prices rise. Again, this is the most important thing to look at with these E&Ps.

Importantly, the company has an industry leading position in the Permian Basin that is helping it achieve its goal of breaking even at $50 per barrel of oil. Its management also recently made two strategic transactions to help it drive costs down as well. In my opinion, management has demonstrated an understanding of the long-term oil future and has been making the right moves. I of course believe oil will be over $50 per barrel soon.

Occidental also produces about 441 MMcf/day of natural gas making it the 27th largest supplier in the U.S. If management continues to sell assets, as I expect it will, the company could emerge as an even stronger natural gas producer down the road. This is a pathway I am looking for with any company I am investing in since I believe natural gas has a much better long-term future than oil. Like the other two companies mentioned, Occidental stock is down substantially in recent years. The stock now sports a dividend over 5% that appears to be well covered. I currently rate the stock a buy. I will provide a more comprehensive look at Occidental this summer.

The final takeaway is that if you believe oil prices will rise, then there are candidates for investment, however, you will need to carefully analyze the debt profiles of those companies and determine whether their assets are truly worth what they claim.

Disclosure:I am/we are long XES, ECA, OXY.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Please make sure to “follow” me as I am making the transition from MarketWatch to Seeking Alpha and haven’t been found by many yet. Also, please forward, tweet, like this article if you found it helpful. Thank you. You can find a history of my articles via TipRanks.com which ranks me in the top decile across all time frames. I own a Registered Investment Advisor, however, publish separately from that entity for self-directed investors. Any information, opinions, research or thoughts presented are not specific advice as I do not have full knowledge of your circumstances. All investors ought to take special care to consider risk as all investments carry the potential for loss and should consult an investment advisor before proceeding on any trade or investment.

Seeking Alpha



39 Comments on "The Coming ‘Peak Oil Plateau’ And Higher Oil Prices"

  1. MASTERMIND on Thu, 13th Jul 2017 4:11 pm 

    The Oil Age may come to an end for a shortage of oil.

    -Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Yamani

  2. twocats on Thu, 13th Jul 2017 7:05 pm 

    “The cure for low prices ultimately still remains low prices.”

    so invest in oil companies!!

    I mean, he’s talking about a time-line of the early 2020’s. who wants to lose opportunity cost of investing in something, anything else.

  3. deadlykillerbeaz on Thu, 13th Jul 2017 7:38 pm 

    Up in smoke!

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/136377865@N05/sets/72157662351494899/

  4. boat on Thu, 13th Jul 2017 9:33 pm 

    Mastermind,

    Then that same oil minister bows and chants to some dude singing from a tower 3 times a day.

  5. boat on Thu, 13th Jul 2017 9:36 pm 

    twocats,

    The cure for low oil prices is less production.

  6. deadlykillerbeaz on Thu, 13th Jul 2017 10:30 pm 

    Investing in oil companies, rig companies, oil related services, has been a financial disaster based on personal idiotic decisions at the wrong time.

    Seadrill is 38 cents a share, it was over 45 dollars. Makes for a nice Seneca curve, a perfect swan dive. Transocean, RIG, was near 56 USD, closed at 8.31 USD today.

    Seadrill has a hefty investment in oil drilling equipment, worth more than the share price, might be a good decision to spend investment funds on Seadrill while the price is down more than 99 percent.

    Can’t be too much of a gamble at that price.

    http://www.seadrill.com/our-fleet.aspx

    Oil does sell, everybody gases up once a week or more, makes for a better existence.

    Have to face facts.

  7. Alice friedemann on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 2:08 am 

    How can anyone claim EV will gain much more market share when half of Americans would have a hard time getting their hands on $400?

  8. Cloggie on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 2:57 am 

    How can anyone claim EV will gain much more market share when half of Americans would have a hard time getting their hands on $400?

    Let’s begin with the other half, shall we.

  9. Cloggie on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 3:19 am 

    Trump in Paris: I am a yuge fracker.

    http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/donald-trump-in-paris-ich-bin-ein-riesengrosser-fracker-a-1157676.html

    Please no word jokes.

    Trump sees it as a shame if he wouldn’t use his new found oil reserves under the US (#10 in international ranking) to make the US economy stronger, in competition with Russia.

  10. Cloggie on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 3:24 am 

    Trump in Paris to Macron’s wife: “you are in good shape”.

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/donald-trump-unangebrachte-bemerkung-ueber-brigitte-macrons-figur-a-1157664.html

    This remark is sold by the communist press as “sexist”.

    To be fair to the communist press, this is indeed the first case were one president shows up with a woman who could be his mother and meets another president with a wife who could be his daughter.

    Well at least Trump didn’t say: “did you leave your rollator at home?”

    It’s a start.

  11. Anonymouse on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 3:49 am 

    Clog-fraud, no one gives a shit really about what president hair-piece said about some guys wife, truly. This latest irrelevance of yours has nothing whatsoever to do with the the article above and even less to do with PO.com. Why you keep bringing up pointless tripe like this is mind-boggling.

    Or maybe it isnt. You are, after all,
    -Denialist
    -A fake pseudo-green alt-energy advocate, so you claim anyhow.
    -You keep going on endlessly about ‘president’ drumpf, like he matters.
    -A habitual liar
    and a pretend anti-globalist when not prattling on about the rest of your other signature nonsense.

    Did you take a wrong turn on the way to national enquirer and end up here by mistake or something? How about sending them all your juicy hot-trump, and alex jones gossip and psychic readings you preform on various world leaders innermost thoughts and motivations and whatnot. Instead of sharing every useless random brain-fart you shit out here.

    Here is the link. They might even find you are some kind of genius compared to their average reader, who knows?

    http://www.nationalenquirer.com/

  12. Makati1 on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 3:55 am 

    Alice, Cloggie just doesn’t understand that the U$ is declining and most Americans can not even pay for the insurance on a car today. The gas usage is dropping because fewer Americans can afford a car and those that have one cannot afford Sunday drives anymore. Poverty is still covered up by the MSM but it is rampant in America. It will only get worse.

    The days of the consumer are over. The days of bankruptcy and debt slavery are ahead. When you have to finance a depreciating car for 7 years (the new average) it is obvious that that is the only way they can still sell cars. A 3 year car loan was the norm in my youth and a 20 year house mortgage. Not the 7 year and 30-40 year ones of today. The writing is on the wall. Collapse is ahead and many things are going to disappear from the market. Techie toys will be the first to go. Eat or play…that will be the decision.

  13. Cloggie on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 4:54 am 

    Alice, Cloggie just doesn’t understand that the U$ is declining

    Huh, where did you get that idea? I know very well it is declining, because of its insane third world immigration policies since 1965, imposed by its deep state (#LBJ), letting ever more useless Anonymous types in the country, but at the same time offering to Europa the opportunity to finally escape from the 1945-strangle-hold aka US empire. The current US president admits that “the US is no longer winning”. He said so during his campaign. His MAGA promise has yet to materialize, but perhaps he can temporarily halt the decline (I hope he will), until eventually the deep state will be in power again (#MarkZuckerberg) and the “real fun” can begin.

    #CW2

    If Trump manages to stay alive, these four years (eight?) Trump presidency will be used for China, Russia, Europe and not to forget the US Heartland, to “emancipate” from Washington and the US empire and prepare for the showdown and terminate the…

    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article6139.htm

    But regarding e-vehicles, the US is also the country with the largest income differences on the planet, with many people very well able to afford an e-vehicle.

    In the end of the day an e-vehicle is potentially cheaper than a gasoline-clunker, because it has less moving parts and needs far less maintenance. Therefor e-vehicles will win and replace gasoline cars in the long run.

  14. Makati1 on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 5:06 am 

    Cloggie: I was commenting on your comment:

    “How can anyone claim EV will gain much more market share when half of Americans would have a hard time getting their hands on $400?

    Let’s begin with the other half, shall we.”

    I was just stating that there is no “other half”. Americans are broke. EVs are techie toys and the “ability to purchase” is way less than even 10% of consumers, not “the other half”. It is to the point where the companies are practically giving regular cars away to get them off the lots. The EU is no different. No credit. No cash. No sale. EVs are another bad joke. Right up there with fusion energy.

  15. Cloggie on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 5:09 am 

    Trump and Macron having a good time wining and dining on top of the Eiffel Tower:

    http://tinyurl.com/ybzk3v84

    It is not known how they got down again…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tlW4EQIFr4

    Trump apparently begins to like Europe, finally among friends or so it seems, at least with Macron and Putin and Merkel is not too bad either. What a contrast to the hostile swamp and US MSM at home, resisting the inevitable Fourth Turning.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-back-europe-why-continent-suddenly-appeals-172744214.html

    Perhaps some day Trump will need Europe as a political refuge. Hope not. Perhaps he will be in the end the German-Scottish rooted Odoacer, flattening Washington.

    Today Macron and Trump will celebrate the 14th of July, that bizarre event when the French commemorate that they killed their best people in 1789.

    Talking about terrorism…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reign_of_Terror

  16. Cloggie on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 5:28 am 

    Americans are broke. EVs are techie toys and the “ability to purchase” is way less than even 10% of consumers, not “the other half”. It is to the point where the companies are practically giving regular cars away to get them off the lots. The EU is no different. No credit. No cash. No sale. EVs are another bad joke.

    Yeah, yeah, I know the routine: Europe and America going down the drain and Asia miraculously surviving the ordeal.

    I’m not buying.

    I’l give you a financial crash, but even that is not sure. The world will simply muddle on, including Europe and America, sadder and wiser and having to work much longer because of evaporating pension schemes (including yours).

    So what. The world is on a “green path” and will not deviate from that.

  17. twocats on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 5:46 am 

    yeah, i notice wing-nuts like cloggie, OFM, KGB Trumpster are the most into talking about the latest stupid thing DJT has tweeted. often with a reference to hillary for some reason. its a bubble so thick you should have to wonder if they are even in the same universe.

    on the djt side all I need to know is 1) when is jared losing security clearance, 2) when is djt jr, manafort, kushie going to court on treason and espionage charges.

  18. Makati1 on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 6:53 am 

    Cloggie, I didn’t mention Asia. I was stating why EVs are not going to be more than a toy. 1% of the cars on the road max. That 1% is about 10,000,000+ cars. Even if I double the number on the road two years ago, to 2,500,000, that is only 0.25%.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country

    As for the “world muddling on”, of course it will, but the 1st world will be gone forever and the 3rd world will be the new norm for everyone.

    The world will go ‘green’ but most humans will not live to see it. Denial does not change facts … or the consequences.

  19. deadlykillerbeaz on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 6:56 am 

    All of these world leaders are fueling their respective official government jets for leaders, flying hither and yon with nothing to show for it except for more senseless bickering. All the while are dumping tons of CO2 into the already crowded atmosphere.

    Fuel from refined oil, the number one primary natural resource that is depleting at a fairly rapid pace.

    Not a brain in their heads, just empty space.

    They’re hypocrites with no idea of their cognitive dissonance.

    Then all need to get a life.

    Beam me up.

  20. Makati1 on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 7:14 am 

    Green? What Green?

    Study: Tesla car battery production releases as much CO2 as 8 years of driving on gas

    http://principia-scientific.org/study-tesla-car-battery-production-releases-as-much-co2-as-8-years-of-driving-on-gas/

    “Enormous hopes are linked to electric cars as the solution to the automotive industry’s climate problems. However, electric car batteries are eco-villains during their manufacturing. Several tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) are generated even before the batteries leave the factory.”

    LMAO

  21. Cloggie on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 7:42 am 

    Study: Tesla car battery production releases as much CO2 as 8 years of driving on gas

    It is obvious that the embodied energy of a battery needs to be taken into account. Stanford had already calculated that it can indeed be quite substantial:

    http://news.stanford.edu/news/2013/march/store-electric-grid-030513.html

    But Stanford also sees ways forward to substantially lower the embodied energy. It needs to be reminded though that so far embodied energy of batteries was never interesting for battery designers, as the stupid thing merely needed to get the car started.

    It also needs to be reminded that in 1977 the price of solar cells was $77/Watt, but now around $1/Watt.

    https://c1cleantechnicacom-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/files/2013/05/price-of-solar-power-drop-graph.jpg

    The difference is innovation. The same sort of progress could be achieved in the field of batteries.

    And it by no means certain that batteries will be the final answer as there are several alternatives, like the hydrogen fuel cell:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/07/08/formic-acid-as-car-fuel/

    One thing is certain, you are not going to solve anything by gleefully “laughing your ass off” if anything doesn’t work.

  22. onlooker on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 7:58 am 

    Clog, when others shoot down your renewable energy hopium it is precisely because it is NOT going to work on a mass scale. So then maybe we can accept and flesh out what will work albeit not for everyone on this planet

  23. Cloggie on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 8:30 am 

    @onlooker: “if you don’t shoot, you will always miss”

    (Dutch proverb, “niet geschoten is altijd mis”)

    It is okay to be concerned and “prep”, but too many people here have an unhealthy obsession/addiction with total collapse. I have seen it happening here with the peak oil fiasco and it could very well repeat itself with this climate change.

    I admit I have a strong technological bias as I was born and raised in a futuristic town where technology is everything, always has (with the most patents per capita in the world, I proudly add).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvElSeuZc-E

    There is a lot your can achieve with innovation, for better and for worse. I like to concentrate on positive innovation.

    So then maybe we can accept and flesh out what will work albeit not for everyone on this planet

    Sooner or later the solar panels and iPads and e-bikes will trickle down to the poorer areas on this planet.

    http://16315-presscdn-0-27.pagely.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cell-phones-in-africa.jpg

  24. Antius on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 8:40 am 

    ‘One thing is certain, you are not going to solve anything by gleefully “laughing your ass off” if anything doesn’t work.’

    That much is true. The endless fatalism of the regulars on this site does get tiresome. No one that has been paying attention to the worsening economic situation over the past decade can deny that we are in a bad situation. But the general theme here seems to be that no-one should bother doing anything, as we are all going to freeze, starve and die.

  25. Makati1 on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 8:46 am 

    BTW:
    About 1,400,000,000 cars in the world today.
    About 70,000,000 cars produced in the world last year.
    Number of years to just replace existing = About 20 years.

    EVs replacing FF cars?…. Hahahahahahaha!

  26. onlooker on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 8:54 am 

    But the general theme here seems to be that no-one should bother doing anything, as we are all going to freeze, starve and die.—First that is a very strong possibility for many.
    But the hard core doomers are preparing for a collapse to a more primitive simple world ie. end of world wide civilization as you glean from reading some of their posts. I, and they are doing a a service by apprising all who read here with an unfiltered reality rather than wishful thinking. It may be the difference between life and death for some at some future date

  27. Cloggie on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 9:02 am 

    EVs replacing FF cars?…. Hahahahahahaha!

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/05/16/by-2030-you-wont-own-a-car/

  28. onlooker on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 9:08 am 

    By the way the possibility of freezing, starving and dying will be a certainty for some

  29. Cloggie on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 9:09 am 

    BTW:
    About 1,400,000,000 cars in the world today.
    About 70,000,000 cars produced in the world last year.
    Number of years to just replace existing = About 20 years.

    EVs replacing FF cars?…. Hahahahahahaha!

    What are you suggesting? In Cuba the average life span of a car might be 70 years, in the West it is probably 10 years before they disappear over the border as cast-off to Mexico, Ukraine, Russia or Kirghistan.

    Perhaps do a little research before you post:

    Global e-vehicle sales:

    http://tinyurl.com/yakavssw

    Global car sales through the roof (unfortunately):

    http://tinyurl.com/y8d97jbs

    What “collapse”?

  30. Cloggie on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 9:10 am 

    By the way the possibility of freezing, starving and dying will be a certainty for some

    I would say for all.

    Don’t forget to enjoy life a little in between.

  31. onlooker on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 9:31 am 

    Don’t forget to enjoy life a little in between.—Sounds like good advice

  32. deadlykillerbeaz on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 9:35 am 

    It’s an inexorable March to Armageddon, we are doomed.

    Cheers!

  33. Antius on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 9:43 am 

    Electric vehicles are not the only option in terms of reducing fossil fuel dependence in transport. This may be more promising:

    http://dearman.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/The-cold-economy.pdf

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_nitrogen_engine

    Liquid nitrogen engines work best in combination with IC engines, as expansion energy is provided by the waste heat. It provides a means by which renewable/nuclear energy can displace perhaps half of the energy needed to propel a vehicle. One can imagine a two-stage gas turbine powering a passenger car.

    Although energy density of liquid nitrogen is slightly lower than Li-Ion batteries, this technology is scalable as it does not require rare or toxic elements in its construction. Ordinary steels work fine in refrigeration plants and air engines.

  34. Cloggie on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 9:53 am 

    It is incredible expensive in energy terms to have the desire to move around in steel harnasses of 15 times your own weight (cars).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9MbuE4g45k

    eRockit: max speed 80 kmh.

    Energy cost: 1 cent/km

  35. Cloggie on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 9:57 am 

    eRockit in the mountains, overtaking all these irritatingly slow cars:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4SDG38-8Hs

  36. GregT on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 12:42 pm 

    Humanity would be well served by using the remaining fossil fuels to mass produce the eRockit. It would certainly help with population reduction.

  37. Plantagenet on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 1:19 pm 

    We’re still in an oil glut. Oil prices aren’t going much higher until the oil glut ends, and they may even go lower.

    Cheers!

  38. Anonymouse on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 1:22 pm 

    Retard!

  39. Jude Bonner on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 5:16 pm 

    Very Simple, If they don’t like low prices then stop drilling and set on their Billions,None takes care of the Farmer,So I sure not going to cry because some Billionaire is not making enough money, Guy hauling Gasoline when he started as a young man Gasoline was 19 cents a gallon, They had payroles to meet then ,The buck was just as hard to make then,Wages was 4 dollars a day SUNUP till SUNDOWN,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *