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Page added on January 13, 2017
The coming famine: Russia, peak oil and the collapse of cheap food
I’ve gotten a couple emails from people who have asked me what I think the “end game” is in regards to Russia. And, indeed, the government is going into extra innings with this whole Russia vilification project. This is worse than someone who has held on to a grudge for years. The government does that, too, but they haven’t done it over ideology (as with Cuba) for quite some time now. What, then, is the motive?
(Article by Jack Perry from LewRockwell.com)
The motive is perfectly clear: Oil. You see, Russia has already eclipsed Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest oil producer. This means the big Saudi oil fields are drying up. And the government knows that, but they can’t tell us this because it’ll create a panic. One would think this would motivate the United States to get cozier with Russia. However, what the United States government fears is that if we do that, Russia will twig to the motive for it, and realize it has the United States over a barrel. An oil barrel. At which point the price goes up. Not to mention extracting concessions in the global sphere of influence.
Thus, what the United States is playing at here is trying to install a different “regime” in Russia. That being, one that Vladimir Putin does not control or have any influence over. This is easier said than done and the United States knows this. But the stakes are quite a bit higher than controlling the dwindling oil supply in the Middle East. Russia is obviously in control of most of the world’s remaining oil reserves. The United States needs a puppet regime in Russia to have access to that oil without paying the correct market price for it.
At some point, this gambit will fail. Russia is not the Middle East. A war with Russia cannot be won or cease-fired out of. Nor can a United States-backed “regime change” succeed over there. This is not the 1990s Russia of Boris Yeltsin. The United States, however, cannot come clean with the truth to the American people. The reason is because if the American people knew the truth, they’d never sleep nights anymore. The truth is this: Our entire economic system is based on petroleum and low-cost petroleum at that. But the actual nightmare is that our entire agricultural system is based on cheap oil.
The United States diet, especially for average Americans, is based on only three crops: Corn, wheat, and soy. Every processed food you see is based on fractions of those three staples. Meat is fed those three staples, even the farm-raised salmon you see in the store. Without those three crops, the United States would undergo a famine not seen in the United States ever at any point. The United States cannot feed itself without those three crops. What’s more, many large parts of the world depend on those three crops exported from the United States to feed themselves, too. Therefore, without them, the famine would turn into a runaway famine of global proportions.
Those three crops require large inputs of oil to grow, maintain, fertilize, and harvest. The corn alone depletes the soil to the extent synthetic fertilizer made by the Haber Process is an absolute requirement. That synthetic fertilizer requires oil to produce. The tractors and combines to plant and harvest these crops run on oil. All the transportation involved runs on oil. People have been led to believe we’ve discovered domestic oil reserves that will give us self-sufficiency. Who’s telling us this? The oil companies who are in bed with the government. The fact is, if we have to rely on these reserves alone, they will need to be devoted to agriculture alone. Or we won’t eat.
At some point, the oil is going to dwindle. It may have already begun, which is the entire motive for trying to isolate Russia. See, we think the sanctions will create economic hardships that will topple Putin. Then we can install “our guy” (probably being groomed in Ukraine) to run the show and give us access to those last reserves at the price we want to pay. But if that doesn’t happen, and it probably won’t, we better start thinking about the fact food is about to get a lot more expensive. The days of .99 cent super bags of corn chips are about to come to an end. Soon.
Keep in mind that the government heavily subsidizes those three crops as it is. Otherwise, food would be a LOT more expensive. Understand this: We are all on food stamps because the government subsidizes corn, wheat, and soy. If they did not, many people would not be able to afford food at all. What you see in the store is not the real and actual cost of that food. You’re seeing it after the government paid up to half (or more) of the cost to grow that corn, wheat, and soy. Including that which was fed to animals, we eat. Meaning, if you think beef is expensive at $6.99 a pound, the actual cost is $15.99 a pound if the government did not subsidize the corn fed to that cattle.
That can only take place because the oil is relatively cheap. Were the oil not cheap and the government still had to subsidize the food crops, the money will probably have to be diverted from Social Security, interstate highways, and the military budget. So you can see the corner the government has painted themselves into. They can’t afford to do nothing but they can’t afford to get into an actual war with Russia, either. However, the steps they are taking carry the very real seeds of a war, but the government is willing to risk that, gambling a certain future of food riots against the possibility of a war. It’s a lose-lose proposition, but the government and Wall Street are stubbornly refusing to own up to the truth. They have staked “growth” of the economy on the price of oil. We are in a suicide pact with them right now.
Oil is a finite thing. It will run out. This is a fact. Now, the cheap oil has led up to more food grown and, as a result, more people born because we had the available food to feed them. These people, in turn, have increased the demand for more oil. Hence, the consumption of oil goes up each year. Meaning, the oil supply (being finite) gets lower and lower but the demand for it goes higher and higher. In truth, this means the oil will run out faster than any predictions made based upon world population numbers of even ten years ago. Every person who comes into the world, whether that person drives a car or not, has a demand upon the oil supply. Why? Because oil is the only reason food can be grown in any industrialized nation. It isn’t the cars, folks. It’s the food.
Go to your supermarket and start reading the ingredient lists of the processed foods people have come to rely upon. You will find that corn, wheat, and soy are in all of them. The entire meat department relies upon corn and soy to feed those animals. The entire dairy department relies upon those cows being fed corn and soy. Yes, there is rice and potatoes. But those two crops will not make up the deficit in the public diet if we lose just corn alone. This entire system is a house of cards built upon corn which, in turn, is teetering precariously on a barrel of oil.
My prediction? I’d say if Russia refuses to play ball with the United States, we will begin to see oil prices quietly going up. One day, some major oilfield is going to dry up completely and the price will quadruple overnight. Any corn out to harvest will see the projected cost to harvest it skyrocket. The trains to transport it may be in control of railroads without the available capital funds to pay for the diesel. Remember, this country runs on credit, not cash. Credit will not be worth squat in the coming economy of low oil availability and food scarcity as a result. We may see entire fields of corn rot for lack of oil to harvest and transport it while entire cities see supermarket shelves bare.
This is the “end game”. This is the future. There can be no other reason the United States is willing to risk war with Russia. Oil is always the reason the United States goes to war since the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo showed us how vulnerable we really are. But this time, we’ve got a “false prosperity” and millions of people born solely because of the cheap food brought to us by cheap oil. When that oil is gone, guess what? We will not be able to feed all those people born because cheap oil made feeding them possible. You do the math on what that means.
65 Comments on "The coming famine: Russia, peak oil and the collapse of cheap food"
Cloggie on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 5:32 am
I would add that in my opinion the most of the Southern Hemisphere is toast given its huge populations and the climate warming effects and lack of fresh water.
Really? South-America, the unknown buffer, as every high-ranking 1944 German knew all too well. Almost twice the US in size and only 400 million people (most with very tiny foot print) and no real desserts. Moving from the US to Uruguay, like JuanP did, is an upgrade in survival terms.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uruguay
18 people/km2, 90% white (most Spanish), 76y life expectancy.
Uruguay is ranked first in Latin America in democracy, peace, lack of corruption, e-government, and is first in South America when it comes to press freedom, size of the middle class and prosperity.
Cloggie on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 5:39 am
If Russia has the upper hand, why should Putin have interfered with US elections? Does not seem logical.
The whole story of “Russia behind it all” is a last gasp of a dying US globalist system and war machine. The reality is that Trump was voted in office because European-America is demographically with the back against the wall. Like a black media chap said shortly after the election: “this is a white-lash”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtJvYdX4GKM
[1:24]
(Still can’t get enough of this iconic video)
Unless one can prove that Russian agents were forcing tens of thousands of Euro’s to attend these massive Trump rallies, the whole story is BS.
That’s not to say that the Kremlin didn’t love the result of the election.
makati1 on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 5:43 am
Dream on, clogster, dream on. You want to believe that but it is a false dream. I do not need the ATM if it disappears. What don’t YOU understand about “being prepared”?
Cloggie on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 6:04 am
I do not need the ATM if it disappears. What don’t YOU understand about “being prepared”?
You talk for years now about a mysterious “farm”, but you are online most of the time. Probably because you prefer to be online rather than shovel in the tropical sun, can understand that. A life with technology is more interesting after all eh, than agricultural activities that throughout the ages have been considered bottom of the pyramid? Even Henry Thoreau fled back to civilization after 26 months and he had enough of his seclusion (aimed at concentrating at writing, not so much going back to nature).
My 130 m2 “farm” is ready and begins once I open my kitchen door. I’m prepared alright (for financial collapse and civil war).
You may be similar prepared after all, but the point was that once the US empire evaporates Soviet style, your standing in Ps society will evaporate with it. You ignore ethnic realities, as paolo correctly referred to.
If you are half-white/half Philippine, consider this post as not written.
peakyeast on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 6:18 am
Strange. No URLs makes trouble in my webbrowser.
Cloggie on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 6:35 am
Strange. No URLs makes trouble in my webbrowser.
If you are reading from a desktop with a wide-enough screen you will indeed have no problems.
But on an iPad or a smart phone very much so.
peakyeast on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 6:45 am
Ahh. Thanks cloggie. I never understood the point of tablets and phones are for talking – those very seldom times I am forced to do that. Mostly I am purely text based – which is why I dont not use tablets I suppose.
The only one using tablets and smartphone for surfing in our household is our 3 yo. toddler and he also prefers a real notebook computer.
makati1 on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 6:47 am
Cloggie, you ASSUME a lot that is not so. I am not on the farm at this time. Still in the city most of the time. We have help there that oversees it when we are not there. Most crops do not take daily attention. And we have no animals at this point to take care of. But then, Why bother to explain.
Davy claims to have a working farm but he has time for many long winded rants here during the day. How can he do that and still be prepping? Why don’t you ask him?
If I remember correctly, you live in the disintegrating, ISIS invaded EU with your NATO buddies pounding on that nuclear armed neighbor to the north. Seems to me that you are in far more trouble than I could ever be.
You ASSUME that my skin color is going to be a problem here. Or my “standing”. I have no idea what you are talking about. Nationality has nothing to do with it. Friendship has. Willing to help a neighbor build a pond, plant a tree, share a meal or teach a skill is worth more to my neighbors than my nationality. This is NOT Europe.
Actually, I am anxious to get to farming full time. I enjoy the dirt, the smell of manure and the honest labor involved. Been doing it small scale all of my life. I love nature and animals and dislike the city. Again, you know nothing about me. Just guessing.
Good luck with your preps. We will all need then soon.
Davy on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 7:21 am
Makati, I get up in the morning and drink my quality coffee. I drink French press coffee. I buy the best whole beans. I prepare it properly. I also include a double expresso. When I am tuned up I talk. Unlike you I say something. I try to be modest and try to avoid blaming and complaining but it is hard on a board that is dominated by it. Much of your comments are just telling someone he is right are wrong. You don’t really say anything or what you say is 4 years of redundant anti-western rants. You have a failed agenda of extremes. It popular with some and that is why you are here and why you continue with the same BS. The truth does not matter to you popularity does.
I get up at 4 and I spend time on this board until 8-9. This is my relaxation time. The wife and when I have the kids they are usually sleeping. This is weather dependent with winter more summer less. We have had several days of an ice storm so I have been inside more than normal. I have an IPHONE so when I am out working during the day I am checking in. Since you never farm and only talk about it I can tell you farming is tedious and hard on the body. I have cuts, bruises, and pain from it. Many a day I come in and wonder why I am doing this especially considering how poor the pay is. Permaculture farming does not pay and anyone who says so is full of shit. It is rewarding and no price can be put on that but pay checks are small. I know you would not understand this because you are by the pool drinking San Miguel in you cheap high rise condo fantasy farming. This farm work I do is tedious and monotonous. It breaks the tedium to take breaks and be on the board throughout the day. I am generally off the board at night because too much of a good thing is not good. I want others to have their time too.
I spend a lot of time alone and this board gives me an intellectual outlet. I work all day long. I work longer than normal because I am on this board. I watch very little TV and listen to little music. What I do watch and listen to is because I am married and she does. I could work a shorter day but I choose to work a longer day to be here. This board is intellectual workout for me. I work out physically to. I want to keep both my mind and body in good shape. Being on this board is part of that. I have excellent internet connection despite being in a very rural and poor area.
I can do this and farm. You obviously can’t. Fantasy farming is not the same thing as getting your hands dirty and learning from successes and mistakes. You are a fake makati and you are misleading people here. I walk the walk. You talk a big talk about how wonderful you are but you are just a failed old man living in a faraway land on a social security check. What the hell are you going to do when you get sick? People do get sick in their mid-seventies. How are you going to work that farm when you get injured? You talk about reaching 100. Who is going to wipe your ass?
Davy on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 7:27 am
Good news for all of us. If they can take NUK war off the table everyone should be happy. I should also clarify that statement by saying if Trump makes it there because dark forces are hell bent on stopping Trump and this meeting. If Trump is removed somehow and doesn’t make it then the US may come apart in civil war. We are in wild times in more way than one.
“In His First Foreign Trip As President, Trump Plans To Meet With Putin In Reykjavik”
http://tinyurl.com/hmtvtsr
Davy on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 8:01 am
I would give my left nut to have the situation I have now but be in a rural southern hemisphere setting. The US is going to be a dangerous place to be in a collapse situation. Just factoring overpopulation and the failure of an industrial society is scary. Then there is climate change. This is a real danger especially where I am in the middle of the North American continent. I have to worry about high wet bulb temps in the summer most likely coming very soon. Extended high heat and drought are a dangerous combination. This is part of the reason I have a grazing system of goats and cattle. I am getting prepared for the extremes of climate change. Goats are an excellent animal for prepping for survival. I can kill a goat and eat for a week. A cow I would need to eat for months. Meat from a cow needs to be stored and preserved. Cows will be sold for cash and goats eaten. Goats eat a wide variety of plants ensuring forage in a climate change setting. Traditional forage may not survive the extremes of climate change coming. This is my niche find yours.
The southern hemisphere is proving for many reasons to be the best refuge but for how long. Eventually it too will likely succumb to dangerous changes. Any place will be under pressure post globalism because nowhere is self-sufficient and not exposed to the extremes of globalism. I am prepared to ride it out here in central Missouri. I am the patriarch and I will protect and provide for my family until I get too old. If they move I will move if I can. If I can still be an asset to their survival I will make that journey. We all have to face the fact we may become refugees from a failure of our local. I have family land in Northern Michigan near Canada I can go to if need be. I imagine I will just die in place if I get lucky enough to live to old age and then collapse comes. If I am too old to provide for the family and if they move because of survival I will just die in place. Native Americans did this and it was culturally accepted as best for the tribe.
We don’t know what is coming. Location is vital. Once in that location proper orientation for survival is a must. If you have the money and the opportunity the Southern Hemisphere is likely the place to go. Most of us don’t have the money and the opportunity so talking about this is just for fun or agenda. It is most often best to make the best of what you have. If what you have is dangerously exposed to failure then accept this and face death if you can’t move. Don’t waste your life trying to ensure you will survive and not live now is the other side of the coin. Sometimes it is best to get out of a bad situation if you can. There are no clear cut answers to this. Life is a gamble and will increasingly be one as decline sets in.
Davy on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 8:56 am
OK, my above reference may have been fake news or a flag of sorts for either side.
“Trump Aides Deny Sunday Times Report of Putin Iceland Summit”
http://tinyurl.com/zbahmjm
Davy on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 9:12 am
more:
“Kremlin & Trump press sec deny report of planned meeting with Putin in Reykjavik”
https://www.rt.com/news/373718-trumop/
“The report was apparently “an attempt by the Britons to undermine Donald Trump’s Presidency,” a diplomatic source in the Russian embassy told RT UK. “Apparently, they will continue this right till the last moment.”
Cloggie on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 9:53 am
Iceland would be the perfect location anyway as it was the place where the Cold War was buried. If I were Putin I would stay away from the US, too dangerous because of too many deep state wannabee-saboteurs of US-Russian detente.
Davy on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 2:08 pm
more:
“In Scathing Attack, CIA Director Brennan Warns Trump To “Watch What He Says”
http://tinyurl.com/jf9gcks
“I think Mr. Trump has to understand that absolving Russia of various actions it has taken in the past number of years is a road that he needs to be very, very careful about moving down.”