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Page added on December 21, 2013
Study says crop yields to feed a growing global population a concern
Crop yields to feed a growing global population may have reached a maximum in some parts of the world, researchers at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln report.
Writing in the journal Nature Communications, the researchers say about 30 percent of the major global cereal crops — rice, wheat and corn — may have reached their maximum possible yields in farmers’ fields, raising concerns about efforts to ramp up food production to meet increasing world populations.
While estimates of future global food production have been based largely on projections of historical trends, those trends were driven largely by rapid adoption of new technologies that allowed for an increase in crop production, they said.
But since many of those technologies were one-time innovations, the projections of future yields may be overly optimistic, Kenneth Cassman and Patricio Grassini of the UNL agronomy and horticulture department and Kent Eskridge of the statistics department said.
Analysis of past yield trends in countries with greatest cereal production provide evidence against a projected scenario of ongoing linear crop yield increase, they said.
The findings suggest the rate of yield gain has recently decreased or stopped for one or more of the major cereals in many of the most intensively cropped areas of the world, including eastern Asia, Europe and the United States, the researchers said.
This decrease or stagnation in yield gain affects 33 percent of major rice-producing countries and 27 percent of major wheat-producing countries, they reported.
11 Comments on "Study says crop yields to feed a growing global population a concern"
dissident on Sat, 21st Dec 2013 4:07 pm
This is not surprising. Using past yield growth trends to predict into the indefinite future is retarded. There are deterministic upper bounds on crop yields based on plant biology and simple physics. Even genetic modification cannot get around important biological constraints.
Newfie on Sat, 21st Dec 2013 4:08 pm
Never ending growth is a fairy tale. One that most people believe in. The ending isn’t going to like Cinderella.
eastbay on Sat, 21st Dec 2013 5:40 pm
No big deal. Just clear some more rainforest.
J-Gav on Sat, 21st Dec 2013 8:58 pm
People who can ought to become horticulturists as quickly as possible. That won’t include growing grain crops in most cases, though people in good “3 sisters” zones will continue and experienced rice farmers will also get a good supplement. A few chickens, ducks, goats, some pisciculture – a few head of grass-fed cattle if you’ve got some pasture. Those will be the folks with the best chance. Over-dependency on grains is eventually going to cost humanity dearly.
Bob Inget on Sat, 21st Dec 2013 9:50 pm
Watch fertilizer prices. My cat is watching a “consolidation” of potash miners that is certain to lead to higher grains prices.
If this (semi-illegal) cartel takes hold it can exert a strangle hold on growers,
consumers alike.
Puts a special meaning to “Making a killing on Wall Street”…. Don’t it?
BTW, we can’t grow bread in Amazon
clearings. There’s a dozen reasons, look em up, learn.
“Wheat Belts” are confined in North and South America, Australia, Europe and Asia.
Efforts were made in 2013 to raise ethanol content in gasoline. Multi fracking and H drilling made that brilliant idea collapse along with corn
prices.
Gilles Fecteau on Sun, 22nd Dec 2013 12:46 am
Just stop feeding most of it to factory farm animals. Go vegetarian. This is the only way to avoid mass starvation. It does not remove the need to stop population growth.
Makati1 on Sun, 22nd Dec 2013 1:35 am
Gilles, you know that is the answer, but some on here are carnivorous and will not give up meat until they have to.
As for the food we eat, they are lacking many of the minerals we need to be healthy. It’s more than calories. It’s: Potassium, selenium, copper, magnesium, zinc, manganese, chromium, etc. Not to mention many vitamins also missing. They do not exist in the leached, stripped sand we call “top soil” today.
I have taken a daily vitamin supplement for over 60 years and am a very healthy 69. Never any major medical problems, nor do I take meds regularly, other than the vitamin and a baby aspirin.
Kenz300 on Sun, 22nd Dec 2013 6:39 am
Over population is the source of many of our problems……
The worlds poorest people are having the most children. They have not yet figured out the connection between their poverty and family size.
Assess to family planning services needs to be available to all that want it.
Ghung on Sun, 22nd Dec 2013 5:55 pm
Regarding meat consumption and grain, people won’t stop eating meat; my family has no plans to. This is why we’re working at putting meat goats on the property. We have some marginal, steep acreage that will be perfect for goats, and they’ll eat the weeds from the pastures, not competing with a few grass-fed cattle. I don’t believe in many all-or-nothing solutions.
We also harvest a couple of deer every season (currently over-populated here) and either freeze or can the meat for stews and soups throughout the year. I’m not sure what society-at-large will do, but there are local solutions I’ve been working on.
Pops on Sun, 22nd Dec 2013 7:34 pm
People will stop eating as much meat, just like they quit driving as much.
J.R. on Mon, 23rd Dec 2013 11:09 pm
The mid-west and other major farmlands are also suffering from severe soil depletion too. Only the constant heavy application of fertilizers permits the present yields.
This can only go down. Acquifers are also in a steady rate of depletion and must be considered, along with extreme climate events.
Future food production will probably never be this high again, due to the all the points made.
It’s a bit surprising how naive Americans are about food security. Any failure point in our just-in-time delivery system means starvation for millions in short order (days). With only a 3 day food supply in the supermarket, why would anybody think we have food security?