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Statoil Sees Global Oil Demand Peak at 103 Million B/D Around 2030


By Kjetil Malkenes Hovland

OSLO–Norwegian oil giant Statoil ASA (STO) said Thursday it expects global oil demand to peak at 103 million barrels a day around 2030, adding it expects increasing complexity to push production costs higher for marginal barrels.

In a report, the company estimated the current cost of marginal oil barrels to be in the range of $75-$90, up from only $30-$35 a barrel in the early 2000s. The most expensive barrels come from Canadian oil sands projects, the company said.

The record level of global oil prices in 2011 added to the debt burden of many oil-importing nations. If cheap, conventional crude oil is increasingly replaced by more expensive, harder-to-get barrels, it could dampen demand growth. For oil companies, higher production costs on new projects will likely reduce returns unless the oil price increases further.

“The steep rise in marginal full-cycle costs which started in 2004 were primarily driven upwards by the tightening of all supplier markets, but rising complexity of reservoirs and projects has also contributed to the higher cost level,” Statoil said, adding that increased complexity would “most likely” push costs higher in the long term.


6 Comments on "Statoil Sees Global Oil Demand Peak at 103 Million B/D Around 2030"

  1. BillT on Thu, 21st Jun 2012 10:46 am 

    boy is this guy dreaming or really high on the good stuff! 103M per day in 18 years? How about less than 40M? And most of that will be moonshine.

  2. Bob Owens on Thu, 21st Jun 2012 3:50 pm 

    We can’t even predict the price of gas this year! Everyone was saying over $5/gal and now it is on its way down. No way we can predict 18 years into the future. Only very broad outlines of what is likely are possible. So here goes: We are getting poorer every day and running into more problems every day. At some point before 2030 these realities will overwhelm our social structure and we will be in deep poo. We will not recognize our world.

  3. DC on Thu, 21st Jun 2012 11:45 pm 

    Sure , demand might be 103Mbpd, or it could 500Mbpd. What mattere is what actually gets produced. Production has barely budged since 2003-4, despite the fact the prices were @ record highs, and the oil-cartel has every possible incentive to crank out more of the toxic sludge. Yet they have been unable to do so. If anything, the US has started wars which took huge amounts of productiomn of line, mainly Iraq and Libya. While its not impossible production may someday reach 100Mbpd, I wouldnt bet on it. Unless you count pseudo-oil(which they are).

  4. BillT on Fri, 22nd Jun 2012 9:54 am 

    Bob, yes, the articles never take into account the imminent collapse of the financial system from debt overload. R&D money is already very difficult to get and will only get worse in coming years. Ditto, money for the ‘consumers’ to continue to consume our depleting resources.

    At some point, oil demand, in fact all energy demand, is going to contract radically. Perhaps it will happen soon so that we have something to start over with in a few decades, or at least for our grand kids world.

  5. Kenz300 on Fri, 22nd Jun 2012 12:49 pm 

    Statoil Sees Global Oil Demand Peak at 103 Million B/D Around 2030 —- demand is growing but the supply can not keep up. No mention of new oil finds not keeping up with the depletion of existing resources.

  6. C. Paul Davis on Mon, 25th Jun 2012 12:43 am 

    It sounds like Statoil and Yergin are smoking the same thing.

    Unconventional oil is the big unknown.


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