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Page added on August 24, 2017

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Slow economic growth? ‘Who cares?’

Consumption

The persistent belief that global economic growth is “dangerously slow” and fragile is just a myth, DBS said in a note on Thursday.

“If you’re worried about slow growth today, get used to it. It’s probably going to be slower five years from now and slower yet five years after that,” David Carbon, chief economist at DBS, said in the note.

New recruits listen to speeches during the welcome ceremony for new employees of All Nippon Airways Holdings (ANA) at ANA hanger on April 1, 2015 in Tokyo, Japan.

Chris McGrath | Getty Images
New recruits listen to speeches during the welcome ceremony for new employees of All Nippon Airways Holdings (ANA) at ANA hanger on April 1, 2015 in Tokyo, Japan.

In the July update of its World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecast global economic growth of 3.5 percent for 2017 and 3.6 percent for 2018, unchanged from its April outlook.

The IMF report urged countries to pursue structural reforms, such as commodity exporters diversifying their economies, amid concerns about “shocks” upsetting the apple cart.

But Carbon said economic growth wasn’t in the danger zone when it’s “looked at the way it should be: in per-capita terms,” with slower gross domestic product growth due mainly to slower working-age population growth.

“Per person of working age, growth doesn’t appear to have slowed at all since 1980,” he said. “To the extent that slower growth results from slower population growth, the response should be: who cares? It’s growth per person that matters — your income, my wage — not growth in the aggregate.”

Carbon noted that the working-age population growth was falling much more rapidly than population growth overall.

He pointed to Japan, where the population as a whole fell by 0.2 percent in 2016, while the working age population fell five times more rapidly, by 1 percent each year.

Europe and the U.S. changes weren’t quite as stark, but still showed the same pattern, Carbon said, noting a 0.1 to 0.2 percent decline in Europe’s working-age population, while in the U.S. that group was growing at 0.4 percent a year, down from 1.2 percent a year a decade ago.

IMF maintains global growth forecast  

That translated into simple math suggesting much slower economic growth, he said.

“Since GDP growth is the sum of labor force growth (in simple terms, WAPG) and growth in output per-person (i.e., productivity growth), a one percent drop in working-age population growth brings an equivalent one percent drop in potential GDP growth,” he said.

That meant the potential GDP growth in the U.S. was now less than 2 percent a year, down from 3 percent more than a decade ago, he said.

It also indicated that global economic growth was running at or above potential, Carbon said.

“Where’s the crisis? Where’s the danger? Why should governments pull out all the stops to raise it further? And would it do any good,” he asked. “Odds are, it wouldn’t.”

Indeed, Carbon noted that while Japan’s economy was widely considered a laggard, on a per-capita basis, it would become the world’s best performer, alongside Germany, with growth twice that of the U.S. and France.

“Whether judged over eight years or 16 years, Japan and Germany are the global growth leaders. The U.S. is a distant third. And France has performed every bit as well as the U.S.,” he said.

CNBC



43 Comments on "Slow economic growth? ‘Who cares?’"

  1. Outcast_Searcher on Thu, 24th Aug 2017 8:28 pm 

    2% growth and low inflation beats 3 or 4% growth, moderate high inflation, and periodic crashes.

    Too bad relative stability probably can’t last, but I’m enjoying it while we have it.

  2. Go Speed Racer on Thu, 24th Aug 2017 8:30 pm 

    Slow or negative economic growth means
    not enough jobs or food or gas for everybody.
    So it would allow the least successful,
    all the poor people at intersections
    to starve off, die, and go away.

    So the GOP would be OK with
    negative economic growth.

  3. Makati1 on Thu, 24th Aug 2017 8:58 pm 

    There is no growth in the US, just fake numbers. Growth is bad for humanity as it requires more and more resources for less and less real value. End “growth” now.

  4. Boat on Thu, 24th Aug 2017 9:23 pm 

    mak,

    According to you America has no growth and no growth is good. So where is the wtg America?
    So is the 6+ percent growth fake news in the P’s? Just how do you feel about those poor folk buying an extra cup of broth in these collapsing times.

  5. MASTERMIND on Thu, 24th Aug 2017 10:04 pm 

    Every major monthly US government economic report – employment, GDP, inflation – is little more than a fraudulent propaganda tool used to distort reality for the dual purpose of supporting the political and monetary system – both of which are collapsing – and attempting to convince the public that the economy is in good shape.

    http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-governments-retail-sales-report-borders-on-fraud/

  6. MASTERMIND on Thu, 24th Aug 2017 10:06 pm 

    Over 7k retail stores have closed down this year so far. Restaurants and bars are having their worst year since 2009. Applebees even just announced they are closing around 160 stores nationwide. And car sales have been negative in the red all year despite dealers offering their largest incentives in their history. This is growth? WTF?

  7. Makati1 on Thu, 24th Aug 2017 10:30 pm 

    Boat, you sure have a weird view of the Ps. The growth here is obvious. I can see it everywhere. New roads, railroads, bridges, industry, trade, etc. I can see at least 6 new condo or office towers going up with in 4 blocks of my windows. This has been going on for more than the 9+ years I have been here. At any one time over 100 of these towers are going up in Manila and more in other Ps cities. And they are occupied. Salaries are increasing. The malls are full. The restaurants are full. The number of food kiosks on the streets are growing. The Ps 6% is much more real then the <1.9% "growth" of the US. Much more.

  8. Go Speed Racer on Thu, 24th Aug 2017 11:24 pm 

    What Mastermind says, it makes sense.
    What growth? Is Applebee’s closing stores
    because of millennials don’t want hamburgers?

    Or more likely they can’t afford to eat there?

    There is some strong growth in the very best areas
    like Cupertino right next to Apple.
    People judge the economy in pockets like
    that. But 99% of America, is Flyover America,
    and they were left behind and they are mad
    and that’s why Trump accidentally got into
    the White House. Obama’s economy
    benefited rhe richest 1% and left everybody
    else behind. Trump will do that even more.

  9. Davy on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:07 am 

    makat, who cares about your p’s. It has a gdp similar to my boring state and 16 times the population. IOW, it is a stupid little country lost in a vast area of overpopulation and ecological destruction called Asia.

  10. paultard on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:21 am 

    guys where are these rich people? i need money to place billboards on highway or whatever media to recruit women for combat.

    i need analytic to do this the most effective way. but i will also target the general audeence.

    my passion is the strongest. it’s passion of a paultard. the scale is paultard, ISIS, extremist tard nazi preachers.

    I want to solve poverty by empowering women and kill tard extremist preachers.

  11. Davy on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:27 am 

    “In the July update of its World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund forecast global economic growth of 3.5 percent for 2017 and 3.6 percent for 2018, unchanged from its April outlook.”

    That number is a raw number and does not reflect embellished data out of China, US, and Europe. It does not reflect all the bad debt that is built into that growth and accumulated over a decade of extend and pretend of QE and rate repression. It fails to acknowledge the anti-growth going on all over the world. It is a hopium number for optimist to point to and say all is well. It fails to take into account the dangerous bubbles that allow that growth. The reality is a mix bag of growth and decline in a world in planetary decline. I hope areas of growth continue for a while because when they stop we are screwed. Yeap, there is no steady state world and power down without consequences. That is what we need to do but with different attitudes if we are going to get ready for what is ahead. The problem is you can’t get ready with a powerdown without ruining the party. So let’s just keep smiling when we see these numbers. Some people realize they are hollow fake number like most everything human today. We are such a fake hollow species of hairless apes. Plastic waste will be our biggest physical legacy to the world of the future and it is fitting.

  12. Hello on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:30 am 

    >>> The growth here is obvious. I can see it everywhere. New roads, railroads, bridges, industry, trade, etc

    You’re weird Mak. Worshipping growth. I thought you wanted to be different than the west? I thought Philipinos like to do subsistence farming. Now you’re telling me they want the good life? Malls? Movies? Cars? Consumption? And YOU approve of it?

    Maybe there’s a secret little american hidden inside of you after all?

  13. Cloggie on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:45 am 

    That number is a raw number and does not reflect embellished data out of China, US, and Europe.

    http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/boomende-konjunktur-beschert-deutschem-staat-rekordueberschuss-a-1164478.html

    Record German government surplus of 18 billion in Q1+Q2.

    Dutch government budget ca. 250 billion euro.

    This year surplus is 0.5%, next year 0.8%

    https://www.volkskrant.nl/economie/het-kan-niet-op-economische-groei-en-begrotingsoverschot-blijven-toenemen~a4478425/

    No need to prove the “embellishment” allegations, just to keep your basic collapse conviction alive.

  14. Makati1 on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:48 am 

    Davy, who cares about your backward state of misery? Certainly not me. It is going down along with the rest of the FSA. It’s lost in a sea of obese, uneducated druggies. Part of a dying country inundated with debt, declining wages, increasing unemployment, and a financial system that makes Al Capone’s Mafia look legit.

    “Here’s How Many Americans Are Living Paycheck To Paycheck (Hint: It’s A Lot)”
    “One Dead, Suspect Shot By Police After Charleston Hostage Situation”
    “Mauldin: 2 Charts Confirm A US Recession Within 18 Months”
    “Massive Fracking Plan Near Yellowstone National Park Threatens Wildlife, Air Quality, Climate” Insanity!
    “No guarantee of residence for migrants fleeing US for Canada” LMAO
    “Police disperse Trump protest crowd with tear gas at rally in Phoenix”
    “Driver hits three protesters in St. Louis: police” Close to home Davy?

    Yep the FSA is the place to be. NOT!

  15. Cloggie on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:50 am 

    Tens of thousands of finance jobs will move from London to Frankfurt as a consequence of Brexit:

    http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/finanzlobby-verspricht-zehntausende-neue-jobs-ausserhalb-des-bankensektors-a-1164489.html

    And besides, now that London is majority Muslim, a cult that forbids interest, there is not much future for finance industry anyway in The City. The future is Eurasia.

  16. Cloggie on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:52 am 

    Makati: It’s lost in a sea of obese, uneducated druggies.

    Paultard: guys where are these rich people? i need money to place billboards on highway or whatever media to recruit women for combat.

  17. Makati1 on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:53 am 

    Hello, you are obviously not thinking. I was proving my point against Boat’s stupid “extra cup of broth” comment. I did not say it was good, I was just saying that his idea/view of the Ps was out in left field. You obviously missed that point. But, lack of thinking is rampant in America. Just look around. LOL

  18. Hello on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:55 am 

    Mak, I’m not american. Didn’t you know?

  19. Davy on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:56 am 

    makat, I am not the one crowing about my state. I don’t talk about it except in regards to your stupid overcrowded island. We should call this board PO and Filipino issues dot com because of your dumbass.

  20. Davy on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 6:57 am 

    hello, that is about the third time he has done that. Dementia anyone?

  21. Hello on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 7:01 am 

    >>>>> Tens of thousands of finance jobs will move from London to Frankfurt as a consequence of Brexit

    That’s good news for Merkel. She can now go ahead importing much more 3rd world. After all, all those high payed bankers need servants, cleaners, gardeners etc.

  22. MASTERMIND on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 7:10 am 

    Hello

    So true. Mak1 is a bitter old man who inhaled way to much lead in his gasoline for years. And it has made him turn very aggressive and lowered his IQ to below room temperature. LOL

  23. Cloggie on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 7:11 am 

    That’s good news for Merkel. She can now go ahead importing much more 3rd world.

    Nah, I am not so sure that things will remain as they are:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmeUXNG14jw

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3s9_EeNnHsA

    It is EVERYWHERE where she comes during her campaign that she is booed. Expect the AfD to get bigger than 10%. It’s a start. French nationalists were at 33% in May and could have scored higher if Marine not embraced leaving the EU and euro. Even her father admitted that was her mistake. She should have concentrated on immigration and leave EU/euro alone. But rest assured that an armed confrontation is coming, both in the US and EU, between “globalists” (former communists) and nationalists/euro-nationalists.

  24. Hello on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 7:14 am 

    I hope you’re right Clog. I hope it’s coming before it’s too late. But as long as the economy is humming and all are well fed, I have my doubts.

  25. Makati1 on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 8:37 am 

    Hello, I do not keep a list of who lives where on here. Sorry if I maligned you in some way.

  26. Makati1 on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 8:41 am 

    Muddymind has to chime in with his usual bullshit. Just cannot help himself, putting down everyone who disagrees with him. He makes up lies about those he disagrees with because he has nothing to rebut their statements. Must be a cousin of Davy. LOL

  27. Boat on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 8:42 am 

    hello/mak.

    So you tell hello growth is bad after all. This is why your confusing. Here is your laundry list of bad growth.
    “Boat, you sure have a weird view of the Ps. The growth here is obvious. I can see it everywhere. New roads, railroads, bridges, industry, trade, etc. I can see at least 6 new condo or office towers going up with in 4 blocks of my windows. This has been going on for more than the 9+ years I have been here”

    So lets recap. You hate growth. You claim the US has no growth but fail to appreciate that the US has reached no growth status.
    Once again a recap. You hate growth but… The growth here is obvious. I can see it everywhere. New roads, railroads, bridges, industry, trade, etc.

    So if growth is so bad why not complain about the P’s growth and hope it will someday match the zero growth of the US.

  28. Cloggie on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 8:44 am 

    Hello, I do not keep a list of who lives where on here. Sorry if I maligned you in some way.

    Hello is from Switzerland.

    /hello=gruetzi

  29. Makati1 on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 8:46 am 

    Davy, you are always bragging about the place you chose to die in. You refuse to consider that there are many other places to live in the world that are better in so many ways. I just point that fact out to everyone who is interested. The smart Americans are already fleeing to Canada or New Zealand or many other better places to live, like the Ps.

    Again, you can ignore my comments if they offend you. They all start with: Makati1. LMAO

  30. Makati1 on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 8:53 am 

    Ah, Switzerland. The “All about money” country.
    Second in that field to the FSA. Played both sides in the world wars for profit. Hides the 1%er’s ill-gotten wealth from the tax man. Now I know I have probably offended him.

    I do love Swiss cheese, but it is not available here. There is a good copy from France though.

  31. Hello on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 8:55 am 

    >>>> other places to live in the world that are better in so many ways

    It’s a good thing that people are different, Mak. Imagine if everybody had the same taste as you and wanted to live in the slums of Manila. I think it would get crowded quickly there.

  32. onlooker on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 8:57 am 

    I personally, would love to be living in some small island in the middle of nowhere with my wife. As it is I think I owe something to my sister and my fellow Americans. Also, the logistics and economics is a bit problematic haha

  33. Davy on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 8:59 am 

    Makati, I love my home but I don’t brag about it. Show me references of me engaging in makatism. I would look silly bragging about Missouri. I have accomplished much with my doomstead and I have good personal solution to offer. You on the other hand brag about a fantasy farm you are rarely at and your personal solution is move to the P’s and be like you nonsense. Those you hate, which is all westerners, your personal advice is suicide. You are a disgusting person makat. You have deep personality disorders.

  34. Hello on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 9:03 am 

    >>>> Ah, Switzerland. The “All about money” country.

    Says the dude who left the US for a low-cost hole? Wanted to feel like a king with your meager social security income?

    Maybe you should try standup comedy clown act. You’d make a killing.

  35. Hello on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 9:15 am 

    >>>>> Hides the 1%er’s ill-gotten wealth from the tax man

    Not anymore, unfortunately. In one hell (I have to admit) of a clever move, the US practically put a stop to that and Switzerland cowardly caved.

    For an american it is now easier to hide money within the US than abroad.

  36. Hello on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 9:22 am 

    >>>> The “All about money” country.

    I wish it was only about money. Unfortunately the Swiss also still believe that never ending growth is good and possible.

    Plastering over the remaining small arable land with ever more ugly developments.

    They also seem under the notion that they have a moral obligation to help every 3rd world negro who knocks on the door.

    They also seem to think it’s good to follow nonsensical EU laws. Like for example outlawing bent cucumbers and stuff like that.

  37. MASTERMIND on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 12:11 pm 

    Prepping is futile Mak1 carp boy because you will be robbed, raped, murdered, and eaten

  38. MASTERMIND on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 1:10 pm 

    US troubled by increasing extrajudicial killings in Philippines
    http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/21/17/us-troubled-by-increasing-extrajudicial-killings-in-philippines

    Sounds like a great place to live Carp mak1!

  39. Plantagenet on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 1:15 pm 

    China and India are growing by 7-10% per year. That isn’t slow economic growth—it just isn’t.

    Cheers!

  40. twocats on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 1:15 pm 

    wow, this is a lot of comments without anyone mentioning Pensions. Most pensions are priced in at about 7% annual growth. So 3 – 4% global growth means 1) people who have already retired are going to have to take a benefit cut; 2) people will have to put away more for retirement.

    one of the great benefits of having printed almost unlimited amounts of money is Governments and CB’s have propped pensions while somewhat limiting inflation… unless you want to buy a house, get medical care, or get an education. Everything’s fine.

  41. paultard on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 1:20 pm 

    mast i said i don’t like duterte because he’s an extremist tard dictator. in america we have central bank giving people moneytary fines. i prefer dealing with druggies and bums this way. but my feeling is they need to be shot.

    between this and suicide shower, i’d rather take the USA

  42. twocats on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 1:32 pm 

    From 2011 to 2017 Chinese factory wages went from approx. $2.25 to $3.75. Yes, impressive 10% annual gains, but still, one can see a lot of problems with that number. One, it’s not sustainable, 10% wage hike in china would start to be real money ($0.38/hr raise is pretty hefty). Or for instance, on the flip side, although its a “high wage”, not nearly enough for chinese to really become a consumer oriented society – more like family members in the village can buy another Ox.

    Could be wrong, maybe Sri Lanka becomes the new China, and China becomes US.

    Either way, unless you are a shopper, or make capital gains from their exploitation, or get tourist flows, their gains aren’t really helping the average American that much.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/27/chinese-wages-rise-made-in-china-isnt-so-cheap-anymore.html

  43. MASTERMIND on Fri, 25th Aug 2017 2:11 pm 

    Here is a picture where mak1 the Asian carp lives? He left the US for this? wow he must have really lost his mind once his wife left him.

    https://i.imgur.com/foCVdCF.jpgines-budget-poverty.jpg

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