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Richard Heinberg: Peak Oil And How To See The Bigger Picture

Richard Heinberg explaining everything that you need to know about Peak Oil and how to prepare for it, because we are already deep in Peak Oil time!

18 Comments on "Richard Heinberg: Peak Oil And How To See The Bigger Picture"

  1. Dave Thompson on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 9:40 am 

    There are no transition fuels that will allow human industrial civilization to continue. Nothing is available that will replace liquid transportation fuels. All alternative fuel sources require fossil fuel inputs. No fossil fuel inputs, no air travel, large scale truck transport, ocean shipping, automobile wallmart trips. Who amongst us will be the first to “transition”? AND to what?

  2. Tedman on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 10:10 am 

    Methane hydrates…you take a chunk of that stuff and throw it in your microwave melt it down and then put it in your truck or airplane!!! Just kidding that is what the reasoning seems to be to solve problems we are facing…

  3. J-Gav on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 10:35 am 

    This an old Heinberg lecture (2007) but still valid in the main points.

  4. rockman on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 2:59 pm 

    I suppose it all depends on what condition one thinks we’ll transition to. I imagine some folks use the term to mean transitioning to a state similar to what we have now…BAU. Others to a state of greatly reduced but sustainable economic activity. And others to a reduced state of economic activity that will allow us to develop a sustainable planet that can maintain the global population at some acceptable level.

    My crystal ball isn’t any clearer then anyone else’s. But I don’t see a good chance of any of these possibilities developing. I can’t envision anything but a very sad future path. And that’s not even factoring in climate change.

  5. J-Gav on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 4:45 pm 

    Hmm, Rockman, a slightly uncharacteristically ‘negative’ post, though you know by now what I think of superficial dichotomies.

    Not that I disagree, there will be sadness and blood on the wall. Just how much no-one can say. Many countries have already gone through such experiences in order to help us maintain our “non-negotiable” Western way of life. Soon it will be our turn as the elites are beginning to run out of external ‘foreign-devil’ victims.

    I recently ran across the work of a certain Robert Steele, ex-spy, etc. who thinks the ‘Open-Source Everything’ option might pull us through in better shape than would otherwise be the case.

    Can’t say I’m entirely convinced but I found it interesting so I’ll share:

  6. Tedman on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 4:52 pm 

    While I agree with you Rock, I am always wary of the “collective thinking” on this site….anyone talking about a transition that does not involve collapse…is quickly shouted down and attacked personally. Just the nature of these sites…Not that I think that there is a solution…but I want to be open to one if there is……come on alien invasion….

  7. Davy, Hermann, MO on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 7:42 pm 

    Ted, if you read my comments I tend to focus on descent and collapse. I try to moderate collapse with less drastic terms like correction and contraction. I believe in transition but a lite version with a term limit. We are transitioning now. Transition is a minority activity but daily more are jumping on the train. I feel apprehension sometimes about collapse as I know there is nothing I can do to ensure all my preparations and mental boot camp will matter. My prep work is a hobby and a life passion. It gives me direction and meaning in a crazy world. I will be the first to admit it colors my thinking. I see the world through this mentality. I walk the talk. I came to this state of mind by 15 years of daily research. I am the type that wants to know the bad news first. I am the type that puts aside an escrow for the shit that happens. So you can understand why I am skeptical about you all that believe in an optimistic outcome from a transition. I do not deny the possibility for at least some to find a good outcome. There are a whole realm of possibilities in this huge world. My pessimism is from an overwhelming negative outlook in every direction I look. There are so many tipping points in the vicinity. We have most vital conditions of the human project in predicaments. I want to be optimistic and I will when realistic optimism shows her face. I want to believe in transition efforts. I don’t want to see suffering and death. I have a wonderful life now and could have many more good years. Yet, I must be honest with my research and honest with my prospects. I have little optimism for a good outcome. I am a happy person and just live day to day. The only people that have interest in what we talk about here on this board are you all here on this board. My friends and family listen and acknowledge my persuasive arguments but don’t want to dwell in this world. Ted, I admire transition and I hope the best for your efforts.

  8. Tedman on Tue, 24th Jun 2014 10:56 pm 

    Well yes…I see your point and raise you one..I don’t believe that you can truly be happy knowing the storm that is about to hit…if you don’t believe that we can make it through this bottle neck and billions will die in your lifetime….then no I don’t think you can be happy…You are cursed with the vision of the future…I was talking to an older gentlemen at the pub tonight I thought of him as rather intelligent and mentioned PO to him and the implications of it…and he said that maybe there is more oil than they are letting us know….maybe he is right and I am wrong…It is hard to be in this mindset and not judge every action you take as wasteful but in the end it really does not matter….mankind will survive and build back up 1000 years from now…..I wish I was born in the 50’s even though I hate that generation…..

  9. Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 25th Jun 2014 6:12 am 

    Ted, OK, I raise you another. You are basically saying you (as in yourself) can’t be happy knowing what is ahead. You can’t speak for other’s internal wiring. Ted, none of us are getting out alive whether a collapse comes or not. The part of this bottleneck issues that disturbs me is my kids who face hardships and deprivations if not early death. That is the part of my hearing the thunder and seeing the black clouds on the horizon that causes unhappiness. I live now Ted not in the pub talking and worrying about the future over a pint. I am prepping and dooming as a life passion and hobby. It fascinates me and it energizes me with purpose. I am walking the walk. I do not feel above others just blessed with the opportunity. I hope collapse does not happen and if it does not happen no problem. My actions are still practical. There is nothing wrong with localization, AltE efforts, permaculture efforts, downsizing, simplicity, animal husbandry, gardening, and unhealthy tech rejection. My short term prep work is finished with food/water, security, barter items, funding, transport alternative, survival tools. I am working on long term efforts at living in a post PO, BAU, tech, consumer, and global. These efforts are a life effort because they are a lifelong alternative life system. My basic long term foundation is 2-3yrs away from completion. Ted, I am happy and I live day by day. Knowing what is on the horizon causes me to say a “grace” at every meal. I look at the food in a surreal way and wonder when and if it will be available post BAU. I wonder what I can do to replace it with from what I have on the farm and what is in the local area. Will there be some imports. For example will there be coffee? I buy consumer stuff that has a future post BAU. I agonize over buying things I need to function in BAU now but have no future. I hope the worst of what I see is fiction in my mind but it appears increasingly to be reality.

  10. Northwest Resident on Wed, 25th Jun 2014 9:38 am 

    “I don’t believe that you can truly be happy knowing the storm that is about to hit…”

    I’m happy knowing that the full scale rape of planet earth, powered by oil, will soon come to an end and that earth can begin the long process of healing itself.

    I’m happy knowing that today I have excellent health, vitality, love and a plan to meet the future hardships well in place.

    I’m happy knowing that regardless of the pain and suffering and massive death by various means on a worldwide scale that we are seeing on the horizon, the human race has an excellent opportunity to reevaluate itself, to learn from our civilization’s serious mistakes, and to rebuild civilization on a much more sustainable basis.

    I guess why I’m really happy is because I have hope for the future, and believe that I can play a significant role on a local scale in helping humanity move forward.

    If nothing else, let’s not forget the immortal words of that one doomed shuttle pilot form the move Armageddon (with Bruce Willis) as he shouted out “Houston, this is one hell of a ride!”.

  11. Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 25th Jun 2014 10:05 am 

    NR, I was curious how much more time do you need to have your basics in place for the descent? I am more curious about long term efforts. I know you are prepared for the short term. I am also ready for the rape to end but I am a little afraid of where the hungry masses will go when the shities are depopulated.

  12. Northwest Resident on Wed, 25th Jun 2014 10:37 am 

    Davy — My plan is to have everything completed by the end of September this year. “Everything” being:

    * A little over 1000 sq feet of fully prepped raised planters
    * Chickens laying on a regular basis, along with a couple of extra coups one for housing the rooster and the other for housing a mom with her chicks
    * Rabbit cages built and populated with meat rabbits happily chewing (and fertilizing) away
    * 2500 gallons of rain water capture storage, with a good water pump
    * Enough long term food storage to last a year or two, not including what I grow
    * A root cellar built right, capable of storing many hundreds of pounds of potatoes, carrots and other food
    * All kinds of mini-projects (building storage shelves in garage, etc…)
    * Print-out of my “Farmer John” manual, a collection of research on how to grow and preserve the various crops that I am focused on
    * A full year’s experience of growing those crops under my belt, with hard lessons learned and ready do it right the next season
    * More seed than I can use
    * Stocking up on all kinds of accessories (grain grinders, etc..) and hard cover books (how to ferment for long term preservation, how to skin animals and preserve their hides, edible plants in my area, etc…)
    * Enough 12-guage double odd and 9mm hollow point to take on an army of zombies, and the oil/solvents to maintain those weapons for years to come
    * A highly alert easy-to-feed small dog that barks when strangers enter the premise, signaling an opportunity to bag another zombie, as needed
    * Attitude tuning up, preparing my expectations

    Those are the basics.

    How about you — you have said you need three more years. What do you need those extra three years for — not that it wouldn’t be good for me to have another three years also to “perfect” my self-sustaining backyard operation.

    And one more thing — if I lived out in the country with some acreage and grazing cattle, I would also be nervous because you’re right — the people living in the “Big Shitties” (and small and medium sized ones too) will automatically perceive that “the food” is out in the country, and head that way, desparate, scared to death and possibly starving.

    Me, I in a small shittie (about 22K people), most of them living in the surrounding hills, orchards, cattle ranches, farms and estates. I kind of expect, if mass panic hits my area, to maybe have to fend off a couple of rampaging looters who might be going house to house looking for food or whatever. But I suspect a lot of my neighbors will “head for the hills” or to the surrounding countryside where “the food” is.

    I do get people walking by on the road behind my house peering through a couple of spots where they can see through the thick arborvidae and looking at my wheat and corn and other crops growing — staring in amazement, actually. They might become zombies someday, and I worry a little about that.

  13. J-Gav on Wed, 25th Jun 2014 11:06 am 

    Some interesting comments above on the subject of happiness in the face of probable big-time discombobulations in a near-term (decadal) time-frame.

    Taking it a day at a time may be a good place to start as in: “Damn, I’ve awakened to another day of life, I feel fine and we’ll see how it goes from here. Whatever happens, I’ll try to make it work as well as possible.”

    Some days, we all wake up not feeling so fine – maybe a physical problem; maybe a little overcome by the seemingly insurmountable challenges that humanity is up against.

    What can you do? Take a few deep breaths and concentrate on the idea that no individual can or needs to take the weight of the world on his/her shoulders. And that’s why we all need a little help from our family and friends sometimes, as well as some community support to spread the load around.

    Not everyone will have such recourses to fall back on, and that is saddening.
    Still, everyone has the possibility to engage in what has been called ‘right living,’ to some degree, in opposition to the rapacious, tyrannical wannabees intent on lording it over us.

  14. Davy, Hermann, MO on Wed, 25th Jun 2014 11:44 am 

    Damn, great minds work alike! Just joking. NR, I will not repeat my work because in a nutshell I am doing what you are doing by category of efforts with subtle differences. I need 3yrs to finish my grass fed cattle operation so I can function without the moderns that most farming relies on. I need some time to finish my summer kitchen, root cellar, charcoal kiln, and food prep tools. I needs some more AltE equipment. Horse equipment like buggy, plow, and hay equipment. I still need more skills research. Many other small items. My short term survival needed are in order with food, guns/ammo, survival tools, and emergency funding. I also have all my outdoor camping/living equipment from my younger days of backpacking and river camping. We never know when we will need to be refugees.

  15. Tedman on Wed, 25th Jun 2014 11:46 am 

    Well I guess being younger and poorer it is hard not to be angry over this…since the writing was on the wall very early on…I see some people as being a bit smug on their “personal” farm waiting and wanting a collapse to happen….We have had our future stolen from us and now we are being slowly bled to death. The older generation did not “earn” their wealth they stole it from us and other third world countries…Individualism is how we got into this problem in the first place and it will only cause more suffering…if there is any way for a soft landing it is with large group efforts…I just wish we didn’t have so many baby boomers in power right now…they have got to be the dumbest generation in the history of mankind…

  16. Northwest Resident on Wed, 25th Jun 2014 12:28 pm 

    Tedman — I’m not quite a baby boomer, but close. FYI — I worked like a dog, suffered innumerable hardships, worked my way through 10 years of college — nothing was given to me, but plenty was taken from me. But I do not doubt the reasons for your anger — they are rock solid reasons. Just, please, do not be angry at “the boomers” — they have been, on the whole, manipulated and used and abused by the international powers that be, just like everybody else. Sure, they grew up at a time when oil was flowing cheap and plentiful, and through powerful marketing and mind-manipulation they were convinced that the way to happiness was through having the most toys — possessions, etc… Now, many if not most of them are regretting the waste that has been propagated on us all to satisfy the power and wealth cravings of the few. Today’s younger generation has a GREAT OPPORTUNITY — to take this world by the balls (after collapse) and do your part to create a new type of civilization, without the corrupt power mongers, without the greed and the waste. Don’t get mad — plan, educate yourself, prepare. This is what I talk to my 14-year-old about all the time. And you know what, when it comes time for your younger generation to fight for a better world, you can count on me and my son being right there with you. Your anger IS justified!!! Use it, channel it toward constructive ends. The old world is dying and it is truly up to you and your younger generation to turn the tables on waste and greed. Just do it!

  17. Northwest Resident on Wed, 25th Jun 2014 12:58 pm 

    Davy — No, they DO work alike!! I know from your past posts that we’re more or less on the same wavelength when it comes to prepping. Especially the part about digging deep holes with stakes and snakes at the bottom to “discourage” those would-be invaders from the Big Shitties!! Works every time!

  18. Davey on Wed, 25th Jun 2014 3:15 pm 

    NR, I agree but I was just trying to show some humility. Yea, we are riding the same wave and I hope other here will consider something. Something is better than nothing. Anything will make a difference so get with it boys!

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