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Page added on September 17, 2014

Reason for Permaculture – Fossil Fuel Shortage, aka peak oil

I have been thinking about writing (or doing a podcast) along these lines for a while.

The original plot was to do a podcast that talked about a whole bunch of different reasons that we should start apply the design system of Permaculture to pretty much everything we do…and believe me, it would easily fill a one hour show. The problem is, so many of the reasons I would want to discuss tend to cause violent arguments over whether not they are actually issues (eg. climate change/global warming) that I figured one big podcast or article covering them as a group would chase off a percentage of the audience. So what I am doing instead is, I am going to write a short article about each as I notice news articles or hear things that bring them to my attention. In each of these articles I will also discuss how Permaculture design can help limit these issues.

Todays subject is a shortage of fossil fuels. The reason I made that the primary title instead of peak oil, is because the article that grabbed my attention is not actually about oil. It is about harvesting natural gas by fracturing shale. The truth of the matter is that we are facing what will be a major crisis concerning fossil fuel shortages in the next generation or so, and we need to find new ways of creating power to run our machines, or we need to learn to do things without our machines again. Those are the choices. I personally thing that we should walk the middle path and rely on the machines less, and also look to the sun, wind and other resources to provide the power we need for the ones we can’t do without.

Since this article was instigated by a fish kill in Ohio (article), which has been blamed on a chemical spill that was caused by a fire at a fracking site, I will forgo the other fossil fuels for the moment and just focus on natural gas.

As evidence that it is in short supply I offer the following. Besides the fact that we are apparently intentionally pumping chemicals into the ground that will wipe out entire fish populations if they make it into the water supply, there is also more than ample evidence that wells are being contaminated and not only become unusable as potable water, they also become flammable. We are also finding that areas near fracking sites are much more prone to earthquakes. To top that off, the fear of being blamed for other environmental disasters associated with fracking, the industry has made a huge effort to keep what chemicals they are pumping into the ground a secret and they have done so with the full blessing of our government. Now would anyone, even a crazed hyper capitalist, go through all of that to acquire a commodity that is not in short enough supply to create a demand that ensures profitability? I highly doubt it.

While outlining what I consider evidence of shortage, I also identified the major problems any reasonable person would have with fracking. Environmental damage in the form of chemical pollution and tainted waterways and significant risk to human habitation due to seismic activity.

So why do we need natural gas so badly? That answer is simple. We use it to create electricity, to cook and to heat our homes. It is also being used some in vehicles, but I don’t think that would be difficult to mitigate if we ever have the good sense to stop this ridiculous process.

So how can Permaculture design help alleviate the need to harvest this hard to acquire gas? There are several ways.

The first is better home design. Even without changing our basic heating systems, we could dramatically curtail our energy usage just by making some changes to the way we build houses. Things like thicker walls, orienting homes with sun rooms or green houses facing the south (if you are in the northern hemisphere, flip it in the southern), minimizing windows in the direction of prevailing cool winds, and using thermal mass to store heat all would go a long way towards reducing energy usage to heat our homes.

The next would be to convert as many homes as possible to electric heat, cooking and laundry appliances. The one big problem with this option is that now that we have finally started heading towards coal free electricity (not there yet but one city after another moves in that direction), natural gas is the next likely option. While an amalgamation of power is a better use for the natural gas than burning it in a million surrounding homes…it still uses way too much to make a significant impact in the cost effectiveness of fracking.

As a side note, that is what I think we should be doing. Take a business approach. We need to do things so well that fracking is not cost effective for these businesses to make a profit. Nothing else matters to them.

As I get back on point, I want to say that municipalities burning natural gas is not an insurmountable problem. We take the same approach we do with the businesses. We make “alternative” power options more cost effective than burning gas. We do that on two fronts.

The first is we should do everything we can to further the cause of developing those energy sources. If you are scientific minded, do research. If you have capital to invest, put it where it can help develop the industry. If you don’t have either of these, have a big mouth. Tell your elected officials that if we are going to subsidize energy (and we do and are likely going to continue doing so) then it should be clean energy ONLY. Tell your friends about it. Post on social media about every development or breakthrough in the field. In other words be a force multiplier.

The second front is to build the grid ourselves. If you own your home, seriously consider going solar. Its getting cheaper per kilowatt hour and with a couple more breakthroughs it will be cheaper than what Local Power Company is charging you in no time. Even if you don’t want to buy panels there are companies out there that will lease them to you for basically what you are paying Local Power Company for your electricity now.

Now these off the cuff solutions won’t solve the problem all by themselves…but they will push us in the right direction, and hopefully they will get you thinking of other ways that we can use Permaculture to reduce our dependence on natural gas before we turn the whole world into a shit pot trying to get it out of the ground.

Now lets go make something good happen.

DIY Food Supply

22 Comments on "Reason for Permaculture – Fossil Fuel Shortage, aka peak oil"

Makati1 on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 7:49 am

And … stopping a stampeding herd of elephants, by hand, would be easier than changing the world economy by planting a few trees here and there. The millions of tons/barrels/cm we burn everyday of hydrocarbons is that herd of elephants, magnified a million times over. Only total collapse will stop it, or at least make a significant dent in it’s stampede.

Not saying that permaculture is not good, but it will not save the world. Yes, we are using perma on our farm, but it is not a pretty place like the picture. It is a jumble of plants, catch pockets, ponds, chickens, eventually a pig, and yes, cobras and an occasional monitor lizard that gets 6 ft long, but is mostly a scavenger (and is edible). In a few years, the trees will be producing and we will have just about any food plant that will live in the Philippine climate. I hope we have that long.

Davy on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 8:08 am

No money, no time.

ghung on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 8:44 am

“Even if you don’t want to buy panels there are companies out there that will lease them to you for basically what you are paying Local Power Company for your electricity now.”

I still don’t get it. People won’t think twice before spending thousands on a car, or their lawn, or a golf vacation or cruise….. but they’ll balk at the suggestion of spending the same on something that will provide their home with much, if not all, of its energy for decades. Humans aren’t nearly as clever as they think they are.

ghung on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 8:48 am

…. oh, and here’s a link to the source article that actually works (remove the space after ‘h’):

h ttp://diyfoodsupply.com/reason-for-permaculture-besides-food-fossil-fuel-shortage-aka-peak-oil/

Davy on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 9:14 am

good read G-man, thanks

Makati1 on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 10:13 am

ghung, maybe because the amount of panels that would replace the electric the power company supplies, is beyond the reach of most Americans? And those systems will NOT last for decades. The electronics will be gone in less than 10 and not be replaceable by then. The panels themselves may last 20 years, but then again, they may not. So, how do you borrow $20,000+ (maybe equal to 10+ years of electric bills) if you are making barely enough to pay your current bills? More than half of America is living paycheck to paycheck.

JuanP on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 11:21 am

Mak, The problem is one of unrealistic expectations.
Only the very rich can afford to replace the electric power they normally purchase from the grid utility companies.
I aim to supply all my needs, basically lighting and ventilation, and a few of my wants, like LED displays, small entertainment and communications electronics, microwave, instant water heater to compliment passive solar water tank, tiny HVAC, Sunfrost fridge and freezer, and Staber, http://www.staber.com/washingmachines from my PVs and batteries, and I know I can from years as a live aboard sailor with a significantly smaller PV & wind gen electric system.
PVs do last decades, and the pieces that expire earlier, like chargers, controllers, and inverters, can be bought now and kept in storage for later use. There are battery technologies that last decades. Any good prepper would do this. Even a tiny system like this one, would be a great advantage.
http://www.amazon.com/Solar-Panel-Bundle-100W-Monocrystalline/dp/B00B8L6EFA/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1410970633&sr=8-1&keywords=pv+kit
http://www.amazon.com/DEEPCYCLE-SOLAR-ENERGY-STORAGE-BATTERY/dp/B008D5YG3G/ref=pd_sim_lg_6?ie=UTF8&refRID=1CP4KQVBKWKYNCPMYHJTKhttp://www.amazon.com/RioRand-Digital-Voltage-Voltmeter-7-5V-20V/dp/B005UWD2J4/ref=pd_sim_lg_8?ie=UTF8&refRID=1CP4KQVBKWKYNCPMYHJT
http://www.amazon.com/BESTEK-1000w-Inverter-Supply-MRI10011-1/dp/B007SLDDHQ/ref=pd_sim_lg_10?ie=UTF8&refRID=1CP4KQVBKWKYNCPMYHJT

JuanP on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 11:26 am

New DC Voltmeter link because of mistake copying links above:
http://www.amazon.com/RioRand-Digital-Voltage-Voltmeter-7-5V-20V/dp/B005UWD2J4/ref=pd_sim_lg_8?ie=UTF8&refRID=1CP4KQVBKWKYNCPMYHJT

ghung on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 11:51 am

Jeez, Mak, still poking holes in non-BAU choices that aren’t perfect. It’s the cars they buy that won’t last decades, not without constant inputs of fuel and parts. You need to stop spouting off about things you know little about. My first investments in solar are all still functioning in their second decade; my first panels will have been in constant production for 20 years in a couple of weeks. See here: h ttp://i1001.photobucket.com/albums/af140/Ghung/pvwaterstuff/pvpanel1_zpsfeac35c4.jpg . See the manufacturing date at the bottom of the label? 10/94, and still outputting full power. The rest of my system has been working flawlessly for years; NO INPUTS, excepting one tiny fan. Beats the crap out of other choices people make. Your contention that “The electronics will be gone in less than 10 and not be replaceable by then” is baseless. Will there eventually be failures? Of course, but not all at once. Do I keep spares? You bet. Will these things be repairable? I have no doubt.

As for; “…because the amount of panels that would replace the electric the power company supplies, is beyond the reach of most Americans…”

So? We use less. In fact, using less becomes addictive when folks realize this actually works and they don’t need the utility. Our PV evolution consisted of reducing consumption and adding production to find our sweet spot, and sweet it is. Note: We aren’t wealthy people, relative to other Americans’ incomes. The point is, we don’t need to be. I’m going on 18 years of not fouling your atmosphere buying dirty, nasty grid power; at least, doing my best not to. Say thanks. I suggest that your time and energy would be better spent attacking the guy selling giant electronic billboards or selling Rolls Royces to rich Chinese guys.

Of course everyone can’t do this, but we can all make better choices.

Northwest Resident on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 12:06 pm

When they start making “rain panels” and “thick cloud cover panels” that do the same thing as “solar panels”, then I’ll be tempted. Until then, depending on where you live, solar panels might not be anything but an intermittent aid at best. But hey! I have a great idea for an invention I’ll call the “rain water electrical generator”. We all know that you can put a paddle wheel in a fast stream or river and use it to generate electricity. My idea uses rain water capture for the same thing — funnel the rain water into a narrow channel and squirt it out at high natural pressure to turn that same wheel. In NW Oregon, that wheel will be spinning practically nonstop November thru April or May, which is when the standard PVs might start doing a little good. Still working on how to convert cloud cover (but no rain) into electricity. When I figure it out, I’ll let y’all know.

ghung on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 12:32 pm

Actually, NR, amorphous panels do quite well in cloudy conditions, if you have the space (they take up almost twice the space). Further, they are cheap compared to the per watt price of crystalline panels, around $.34/watt.

We’ve had almost constant cloud cover for a couple of weeks and have managed quite well. All of our panels are mono/poly crystalline, but I’ve considered adding an array of amorphous (just for fun) because they’re so cheap and perform better in cloudy/diffuse sunlight and hot weather.

Check here for best PV prices: sunelec.com. I got an ‘insider’ email from these guys offering grade A UL listed Sharp 110 watt amorphous panels at $.32/watt.

For an example of an entry-level complete system, look here:

h ttp://www.altestore.com/store/Packaged-Systems/Off-Grid-Cabin-Systems-Solar-Packages/Off-Grid-Cabin-package-2-280W-Kyocera-Modules/p716/

You could triple it’s output by adding more panels for a few hundred bucks.

Davy on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 12:33 pm

Juan, thanks for the info. I pasted it to my pep notes. I have a pretty robust system currently but I am very curious about your approach. IMA the Sunfrost refrigerator is one of my better purchases. I highly recommend it. My current solar system is used as my primary barn power. No grid power goes to the barn. Barn is quarter mile from cabin so it was not economical to tie the two together. I have the batteries and controllers set up to move to my cabin if need be on a trailer. I still have to buy another set of panels for cabin area barn panels are mounted on the barn roof. The situation to move solar system would be grid instability. I also have a large diesel welder and generator that is likewise mobile. I keep 2000 gal diesel on the farm. I can move either power source between barn and cabin. When the utility folks put in my transformer for my cabin I had them add the throw switch option to connect off grid power. I have one question for G-man or Juan. When I purchase my panels for the cabin area my plan is to have them in storage ready to set up if need be in a grid instability scenario. IOW a SHTF and my diesel is too precious to burn so I will move my solar to the cabin take the panels out of storage and mount them. I want to keep them in storage so they do not degrade. I read somewhere they degrade when they are in the sun but not if they are in storage. If I am wrong please correct me.

Northwest Resident on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 12:41 pm

ghung — Thanks for that info. I copied/pasted it into my “master post peak oil survival” document, which I keep here at work and add to from time to time as I run across “good info”. I may appear to have a light-hearted attitude toward PV, and I admit that I am one who believes that PV/alt-E in no way can save us from Peak Oil, but I can definitely see the big — huge — advantages of having a workable PV system set up for at least that transition period from collapse to reboot — assuming reboot occurs and that I’m around to be a part of it. IF BAU lasts long enough — say, two more years — then I’ll be in a position to finally invest in a PV system, and the amorphous panels you’re linking to will be a great choice for me. Great to know that such panels exist! Thanks!

ghung on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 1:15 pm

Davy, not sure how much faster they’ll degrade in the sun. They were designed to sit in the sun for 25+ years, and are essentially just glass that makes electricity with an aluminum frame. Like I said, my first panels have been in the sun for just shy of 20 years and still function like new. I would be more worried about them being stolen off of your cabin, so storage may be the better option.

With current mounting systems and MC-4 plug type connectors (on most panels these days), they could be moved pretty easily. Seems like a shame to not use them to offset some grid power.

JuanP on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 2:01 pm

Davy, Ghung has more knowledge and experience than I do, and I agree with absolutely everything he said. Under normal storage conditions I would expect those panels should last decades.

PrestonSturges on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 2:38 pm

We aren’t going to survive based on our fruit trees, but we certainly won’t be getting scurvy either.

Davy on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 3:10 pm

G-man/Juan, as G mentioned theft is an issue. This is why I mounted panels on barn. I have a 60’x120′ Morton building. Theft of the panes on this building would be difficult. I would love to get a dedicated system for the cabin but I have so many prep items on the list of wants. I have to prioritize needs. I don’t use much electricity in my 40’x12′ cabin. My thoughts are at this time just use my solar at the barn and later if or when SHTF move the system over to the cabin. Weather related power loss my diesel generator can cover. Anyway this sounds odd and I am an odd guy generally doing things backwards. My theft worries are when I go to Bahamas in winter and Michigan in summer. We don’t have a bad theft issue around here but folks that are gone allot do get hit. I like the idea of panels in storage for use or trade and barter later. Anyway thanks G/Juan your advice and sources all help is greatly appreciated.

JuanP on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 3:24 pm

Davy, it makes sense. I am very concerned about theft, too, and it is one of the main considerations in my planning.
There are always a lot more things to do than time and money to do them. I always say to myself “Baby steps, Juan, baby steps” like in that old movie. Now, baby steps to the shower!

JuanP on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 3:35 pm

Davy, to be more specific in answering your question, PV panels should keep better when not exposed to light than when in use. In use they last decades with very slowly decreasing performance. In storage they should remain like brand new for even longer. AFAIK, we haven’t been making and storing them for long enough to know how long they could last. The plastics and rubber on the wires and connectors are probably the weakest components, but I would expect any decent PV system to last longer than I’ll live allowing for normal wear and tear.

Kenz300 on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 6:27 pm

Quote — “We make “alternative” power options more cost effective than burning gas. We do that on two fronts.

————————

The Inevitability of Solar

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2014/09/the-inevitability-of-solar

Makati1 on Wed, 17th Sep 2014 7:31 pm

ghung, reality is the only place to look for the future. Pretending that advertising is true is not reality. Put the articles in perspective and they show their impracticality. Most articles are written for money and are spun in the direction that that money is coming from and it is not reality. It is to sell something.

I like to put things into perspective. If they claim that electric cars will save the day … BS! If they say that everyone should go solar panels, they don’t mention that 99% cannot for economic reasons. If they claim to be “exceptional” they are deluding themselves. Only seeing cold reality will allow you to prepare for the possible future you see coming. Pretending is what the West is doing, not preparing.

Nony on Thu, 18th Sep 2014 2:41 pm

I remember all this hippy garden crap from the 70s. This isn’t about reasoned analysis of oil supply. It’s just emotional yearning.

Reason for Permaculture – Fossil Fuel Shortage, aka peak oil

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