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Prepare for a Bumpy Ride in 2017

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After two and a half years of opening up the taps (or rather: not closing them) OPEC has changed course in what is looking to be a gamechanger for the oil market. Market sentiment has shifted and the oil price has gone up. But that doesn’t mean we can go back to the status quo ante, writes geophysicist (ex-Shell) Jilles van den Beukel. Some things have changed permanently. Saudi Arabia’s position within OPEC has weakened, Iran’s has strengthened. US tight oil companies have shown their strength. As a result, writes Van den Beukel, volatility will be here to stay.

OPEC defeated?

Many have argued that OPEC’s decision to cut production on 30 November was a defeat. But was it really?

OPEC (and most of all: Saudi Arabia) over the last two years had been trying to deal as well as possible with the difficult situation that the 2009-2014 high oil price world had created for them.

Would they, from 2014 onwards, have defended price instead of market share, US tight oil production would have risen by about 2 mb/d (million barrels per day) by now (instead of the reduction of about 1 mb/d that actually materialised). The decline from non-OPEC conventional fields would have been 3 mb/d (instead of the 6 mb/d that actually took place). For Saudi Arabia it would have been a repeat of the early 1980s when they did defend price, resulting in a reduction of their production to a level as low as 2.5 mb/d (currently they produce over 10 mb/d) before they gave up.

Even if producers do not fully live up to their pledges, their ability to cheat and take away market share from Saudi Arabia has become limited

Thus, two years of defending market share instead of price has resulted in 6 mb/d lower non-OPEC supply than what it would have been otherwise. The large investment cuts in non-OPEC oil will reduce non-OPEC supply for years to come. That is major progress for OPEC. It has brought supply and demand close to equilibrium in 2017. Now a cut became a realistic option in order to bring on higher oil prices. A cut in 2014 would only have postponed the inevitable and increased the length of the subsequent painful rebalancing period.

They will have been disappointed by the resilience of US tight oil. US tight oil survived by drilling in the very best spots only, increased efficiencies and reduced service industry costs. Furthermore it was saved by their investors and financiers – for whom accepting severe losses was a better alternative than to let them go bankrupt.d85531c2f1fad37_size129_w1200_h677-opec at the helm-slider

In the end, OPEC did regain market share and, more importantly, some of their ability to move markets. US tight oil survived with break-even costs in the very best areas that are now at the lower end of the global non-OPEC cost curve. They both paid a heavy price. But it is high cost non-OPEC conventional oil that has lost the most in this battle.

Why cut now?

The timing of the production cut can be explained by various factors. First and foremost, markets had done their work and supply and demand were approaching a balance, enabling a meaningful cut.

Secondly, all producers were troubled by budget deficits. A country like Venezuela had been desperate for a deal. Unfortunately for Venezuela it has no clout whatsoever in OPEC. The defining push for the agreement was given by Prince Mohammed bin Salman (Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler) and Vladimir Putin.

The situation within their countries is such that both have good reasons to cut oil production. Bin Salman wants to solidify his grip on power. For that he needs to limit hardship for the Saudi middle class and provide hope for the rapidly growing (and increasingly unemployed) number of young Saudis. Saudi Aramco’s planned IPO will benefit from higher oil prices. Putin also wants to limit economic hardship for the Russian population. He cannot be as indifferent to the well-being of the Russian population as Stalin once was; his grip on power is more secure if he keeps the Russian middle class happy.

Iran seems in a better position to overcome periods of low oil prices than Saudi Arabia. Its economy, hardened by years of sanctions, is better equipped to do so and is less reliant on oil income

Thirdly, Saudi Arabia needed to see pledges from other producers (Iran and Russia in particular) to be able to go ahead. These others producers needed to have confidence that limited cuts will lead to a meaningful increase of the oil price – something that the initial market reaction in September after the Algiers talks provided to them. Reaching an agreement in Vienna on 30 November then became a must; failure would have implied a substantial price drop, something they could ill afford.

Finally, what should also be considered is that OPEC spare capacity is at its lowest level since 2008. Iran is back at its pre-sanctions level of production and cannot raise production any further in the short term. Russian production is at a record level. Even if producers do not fully live up to their pledges, their ability to cheat and take away market share from Saudi Arabia has become limited. Saudi Arabia can be satisfied that cuts are shared. Iran and Russia can be satisfied as well; their pledges are not a great hardship for them.

What has changed?

Yet this does not mean that OPEC is back to where it once was. Some things have changed permanently.

Saudi Arabia has lost clout within OPEC. Iraq and especially Iran are challenging its dominant position. Their combined production starts to approach that of Saudi Arabia. Both have large undeveloped oil reserves, which can be developed at low cost, and are still producing way below their potential. In the long run they are likely to further ramp up production. After having been sidelined for a long time due to wars and sanctions both are now reclaiming their natural position in the OPEC pecking order. In the long term, reaching an agreement within OPEC will not become any easier.

Let us put things into perspective. The oversupply frequently described as a glut was no larger than about 2% of global production, at its worst

Iran in particular by now seems in a better position to overcome periods of low oil prices than Saudi Arabia. Its economy, hardened by years of sanctions, is better equipped to do so and is less reliant on oil income. Saudi Arabia’s pivotal role in OPEC was based on its being the largest producer by far, its ability to maintain a substantial spare capacity and its large financial reserves that (in combination with a relatively small population) enabled it to better sit out prolonged periods of low oil prices. Some elements of this dominance are now starting to fall away and Saudi Arabia is no longer the sole pivotal nation within OPEC that it used to be.

Oil has always been linked to politics. And Saudi Arabia has also lost political clout in the Middle East. The Saudi’s are struggling to deal with a Shia encirclement. Their economy is solely dependent on oil and is not performing well in comparison with countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The religious establishment is a blocker when it comes to reforming education and increasing the role of women in the economy. Their special relationship with the USA is deteriorating now that the USA is moving towards energy independence and more reluctant to prop up fundamentalist regimes. In the meantime Russia has gained influence, by intervening in Syria and by playing a key role in brokering the recent OPEC agreement.

For a long time Saudi Arabia has been a source of stability in the region and Iran a source of instability. That is changing now.

Where do oil prices go from here?

All ingredients seem to be in place to keep oil prices in 2017 at a systematically higher level than in 2016. Compliance with the agreement will vary among the different producers, but the 700,000+ b/d cut from Saudi Arabia and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Kuwait and the UAE) in itself is sufficient to bring supply and demand approximately into balance. Even if the level of compliance of other producers will be as low as 50%, the cuts will still lead to a meaningful reduction of oil inventories.

As oil producers see that the deal delivers the promised rise in oil prices, they will be less likely to cheat – at least initially. The pledged, gradual cut from Russia involves little more than natural decline and a reduction or freeze of all short term projects.

It does not take that much oversupply to send oil prices plummeting. In the same way, it does not take that much undersupply to send them through the roof

Yet volatility will be here to stay as stories of cheating, outages and potential production increases from uncapped Nigeria and Libya abound. Notes to refiners about shipment reductions will be duly leaked to the media (something that has already started). But throughout the year we will be seeing a return to oil prices that are closer to the long term sustainable price of oil: that of the marginal non-OPEC barrel, somewhere near $60-80 per barrel. 

160928163540-opec-algeria-1024x576And let us put things into perspective. The oversupply frequently described as a glut was no larger than about 2% of global production, at its worst. OECD oil inventories have hovered around 65 days of supply in 2016; little more than 5 days above the long term average. It does not take that much oversupply to send oil prices plummeting. In the same way, it does not take that much undersupply to send them through the roof. One should not blame analysts too much for not being able to predict the oil price, but a bit of blame for underestimating uncertainties might be justified.

How will US tight oil react?

A main source of uncertainty is how US tight oil will react to higher prices. Tight oil’s shorter cycle times and faster reaction to changes in oil price compared to conventional oil may keep a lid on oil prices. But to what extent?

If we compare a recent global cost curve of oil projects with a 2014 cost curve there are two developments that stand out. Firstly, the average break-even cost has decreased substantially, from about $70 per barrel in 2014 to about $50 per barrel today. Secondly, over the last two years US tight oil has seen the biggest cost decreases and it has shifted towards the left (more competitive) side of the global cost curve.

For those US tight oil companies that have survived and that have quality acreage there now seems to be a great promise for the future: break-even prices near the lower end of the global spectrum of opportunities and huge in-place volumes. This is the background for the recent outperformance of the share price of companies active in the Permian (the US region with the lowest break-even prices). Break-even prices for the very best areas have dropped to about $30 – $40 per barrel. As a whole the US tight oil industry is estimated to need about $55-$60 per barrel to maintain a flat production level.

US tight oil will indeed keep a lid on oil prices. But to a smaller extent than what is often assumed

There is one snag: break-even prices quoted above are for current cost levels of the service industry, widely seen as being unsustainably low. How much will these costs increase once that activities pick up in earnest? Rystad Energy estimated that for the Bakken about 40% of cost savings were structural (faster drilling, better well production) and about 60% cyclical (primarily lower service industry costs, to a lesser extent drilling in the very best sweet spots only). When activities pick up significantly, break-even costs are expected to increase by about 65%. Current break-even costs for the very best sweet spot areas would be expected to increase from $30 to $50 per barrel. Non-core areas (that currently see little activity) could see an increase from $50 to $75 per barrel. Other studies have reached similar conclusions.

Quoting from a recent panel discussion at an event of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE): “If oil prices stay below $55/bbl, equipment availability can be relatively smoothly managed in the Permian. But at prices from $60/bbl to $70/bbl all of a sudden all of the other plays come back, and then for sure we reach the threshold of equipment not being available”.

I feel that many analysts overestimate the ability of US tight oil to act as a swing producer. Firstly, things take time. Hiring drilling crews to man the often less efficient rigs that have now been cold stacked takes time. Hiring fraccing crews takes time. Getting permits takes time. It took two years before the effect of low oil prices on US tight oil production had materialised in full. Secondly, costs of drilling and fraccing follow the oil price. US tight oil will indeed keep a lid on oil prices. But to a smaller extent than what is often assumed.

by

Jilles van den Beukel worked as a geologist, geophysicist and project manager for Shell in many parts of the world. This paper was first published on his blog JillesonEnergy.

Energy Post



79 Comments on "Prepare for a Bumpy Ride in 2017"

  1. makati1 on Mon, 9th Jan 2017 4:54 pm 

    Selling the oily addiction, one word at a time. $60? $30? $10? Who gives a damn? I don’t. I enjoy watching the bouncing oily price ball and the nervous betters at the Stock Market Casinos bouncing the numbers up or down when some oily man sneezes. Proof that the oil based world is ending. And not too soon! LMAO

  2. Dredd on Mon, 9th Jan 2017 5:04 pm 

    People who love to talk about oil prices are like mass murderers who like to talk about the price of ammunition.

  3. makati1 on Mon, 9th Jan 2017 5:59 pm 

    Great analogy, Dredd!

  4. dave thompson on Mon, 9th Jan 2017 7:07 pm 

    This time of year traditionally the price of oil goes to its lowest. I am seeing gas at $2.60 in the Chicago suburbs. Over the summer when it is at its highest traditionally, I saw it at about $2.00. Makes ya wonder.

  5. Go Speed Racer on Mon, 9th Jan 2017 7:16 pm 

    Bumpy ride in 2017 ??
    LOL, kiss your arse goodbye, this airplane is
    going down!! Captain Trump has already ejected out
    leaving us to scream all the way down.

    Best I heard lately, is the USA is now already in a
    sort of civil-war. It’s between the poor ex-middle class,
    and the multi-culti elitist pacific rim billionaires.

    Unlike most civil wars, the Poor losers already lost, and
    the Rich winners already won. But we are going thru
    the gyrations of upheaval just to make double sure.

    Also unique is all the Poor people
    voted for all the Rich people, because they
    believe the rich people
    will make the Poor people into rich people.
    LOL, and pigs can fly.

  6. Plantagenet on Mon, 9th Jan 2017 9:44 pm 

    Oil prices are up almost 100% from the 2015 lows. That’s an impressive gain

    Cheers

  7. Hubert on Mon, 9th Jan 2017 10:28 pm 

    Real Big Story of 2017 is #Pizzagate/ Pedogate. This will destroy this country:
    https://voat.co/v/pizzagate

  8. Davy on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 4:20 am 

    Oil prices have their own dynamics but the most significant is global economics. Global economics currently is dominated by a nouveau nationalism of a potential managed trade from the US. Less a factor but also disruptive is the rearrangement of global alliances. China is in currency instability. China is also in the vicinity to a property and bond market bubble deflations. Overall its banks are many times in the hole with nonperforming loans. Europe and the US have similar issues but not as dramatic. They did not have 20 years of excessive growth to sort out. The dollar and other currencies are not in a healthy range. This is going to drive the oil markets longer term depending on how this shakes out.

    I see 2017 as a time where unrealistic optimism or sorts maintains the markets and commodities. I see 2018 as the time when reality comes home to roost. Trumps policies will be a failure because no policies of growth will succeed. His policies will take a year or more to coalesce and begin functioning as policy and law. In the meantime it is about confidence in these potential changes driving the markets.

    We are now at planetary limits with a financial system that has been deeply distorted by years of repression and easing. A recession that was needed back in 2008 was ignored and growth double-downed on. Sooner or later the world will have to pay the price for these haphazard actions. Market based capitalism is price based. Value is discovered from proper price discovery that allocates resources, labor, and capital properly. Malinvestment that is treated as a productive asset is pretend. Extending this pretending is what has been happening now for years. Extending and pretending are symptoms of deeper troubles of the moral hazard of corruption which is nothing more than cultural mal-investment that represents decline and decay. One of these days this global mess of a civilization will rebalance. What is unfortunate is the mess is more than our civilization and culture. The real mess is environmental with extinction, climate instability, and ecosystem decline and failures. These forces are in a rapid onset and abrupt change.

    How does this affect oil? Oil is nothing without a civilization and economy both supported by a planet. Without a civilization oil is dirty. It is about small teapot refineries and cobbled together equipment to use oil. If demand destruction and cultural decay is a dominant force oil will be affected by this. We are in a zone of stagflation that is a fog of growth. Growth is present but is it actual real growth. Dangerous and damaging inflation and deflation are present. If one could sum all global investments with all the assets physical and abstract would there be increased value or decay? Look at all our system, networks, and infrastructure. Are they arrangements with a future?

    I imagine oil may stabilize at least this year. The markets are anticipating a Trump business bonanza of sorts. China is so big and powerful they can play social and economic games for years and get away with it. The one exception is if the US and China get into a trade war or hot war. There is always a black swan of a ballistic North Korea. I suspect China and the US will enter bilateral deals after they see the damage trade conflicts have. WWIII may be more off the table if the Putin and Trump’s romance can continue. That is a big if because the US deep state wants no part of it. Will trump sink a spike in the heart of the US deep state? Maybe this will happen but I doubt something much better will occur except maybe a less hostile arrangement with Russia. The US and Russia have much to work together over. This may not be good for the world per say other than taking WWIII off the table. A Russia and American alliance could be a force of discomfort for the rest of the world. That is one strong bipolar power that could emerge.

    The reality of oil in 2017 appears unrealistically stable with a 2018 that may be all over the place. Most likely in the next month oil will play its internal games we have been watching now with OPEC and the goings on of the supply glut. The underlying forces of depletion are alive and well. Productive assets have been damaged by the price collapse. There is nothing very positive for oil except no big negatives directly on the horizon.

  9. Kathy C on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 4:22 am 

    Hubert, perhaps that is why all this brouhaha about Trump. He just might break this can of worms open. RFK had to be prevented from becoming president because he could use the power of the office to investigate JFK’s death.

    If that is what they most fear about Trump, they will stop at nothing to keep him from power.

    Meanwhile everyone has forgotten the CONTENT of the e-mails in the “Russia did it” frenzy. No one has yet explained to anyone’s satisfaction all the nonsensical e-mails about pizza etc in the Podesta emails. Are they code. If not the people writing them have gone nuts. If they are code but not about pedophilia why isn’t someone explaining their meaning.

    The fact that the mainstream media is avoiding the content suggests that it is a hot potato. Perhaps Trump, if he makes it to the inauguration, will break it open. Perhaps not.

    Of course the brouhaha could just be because the neocons want their war. Perhaps they will still create that war in the 10 days left to them http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-06/hundreds-us-tanks-arrive-europe-support-nato-anti-russian-buildupa

    It would be a shame if we all go up in flames before we get to see peak oil and Climate Change proven right.

    Get a bowl of popcorn. Sit back and watch the show. Its all over one way or another.

  10. Kathy C on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 4:26 am 

    Go speed racer you wrote “Also unique is all the Poor people
    voted for all the Rich people, because they
    believe the rich people
    will make the Poor people into rich people.
    LOL, and pigs can fly.”

    You are so right.

    I would however say that it is also unique that all the left liberals voted for a warmonger. It is unique to have them respecting and trusting not only the lying NYTimes (WMD remember) but also the CIA. I have been a left liberal all my life and I have never seen left liberals fawning over the CIA ever before. The dirty, scheming, plotting, dirty tricks CIA. Suddenly they are truth tellers?

    Everyone has gone nuts.

  11. Cloggie on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 5:23 am 

    I have been a left liberal all my life and I have never seen left liberals fawning over the CIA ever before. The dirty, scheming, plotting, dirty tricks CIA. Suddenly they are truth tellers?

    Welcome to the club.

    Wonder why that happened, all these people (including me) moving away from leftist-liberalism? Beats me.

    http://www.infowars.com/shock-vice-news-admits-alex-jones-dominating-media-landscape/

    I’m counting the days to January 20 too. Trust that Putin won’t bite in one of the endless provocations. And hope that Trump immediately will withdraw these 4000 NATO tanks in Poland and the Baltic states.

    It would be a shame if we all go up in flames before we get to see peak oil and Climate Change proven right. Get a bowl of popcorn. Sit back and watch the show. Its all over one way or another.

    The slightly more constructive attitude would be to double our efforts and move away from fossil as fast as we can. Unfortunately Trump will not cooperate on this one. But building the wall, teaming up with Russia and abandoning the NWO project against the will of these kosher neocon fanatics and dismantling the CIA would be enough for me to call him a great president.

    http://www.infowars.com/michelle-obama-tells-muslims-immigrants-this-country-belongs-to-you/

    Michelle Obama telling Muslim immigrants that the US belongs to them. Interesting tidbit: there are 1.5 billions dirt-poor of them who would love to come to the US and take it over.

    Fortunately for them the European-Americans volunteer to pay for it all. First and foremost boat, who insist that race and religion don’t matter, we can all be Americans. Any other attitude would be racism and Islamophobia and we are all glad we are not like that (thanks George S. for the intellectual framework and splaining the world to us all, where would we be without you).

    And then there is horse face Streep and here pedophile kosher buddy Polansky, who prefers his victims to be male and 13 years old. Streep precisely knows on which (kosher) side her bread is buttered. She ain’t no Mel Gibson, that’s for sure. Meryl will never say that “the Jews are behind all wars”. She prefers to star in flicks like “Shitler’s List”, that’s more profitable.

    More Infowars news: SILICON VALLEY CEO: MIDDLE AMERICA A “SH*THOLE” FULL OF “STUPID PEOPLE” “Clean up your act” by electing progressives, she says

    This Melinda Byerley is talking about you Davy.

    Ah well, at least Middle America has waken up and voted someone who is probably one of them into office. Won’t belong before they will rediscover their real identity: European, now that they have to share their country with endless masses of Africans, Muslims and Asians as per Michelle Obama.

    Welcome home, folks. The exceptionalist Anglo part of American history is over. The Continental European part is next, like between 1776-1891.

    #MakeAmerikaSmallerAgain

  12. Davy on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 5:29 am 

    “Everyone has gone nuts.” Kathy we are one big insane asylum. LOL. Yea, much to the chagrin of my conservative republican family I would entertain left liberal thinking when it sounded reasonable. Now I am a doomer who reality tests left, right, conservative, liberal, economist, environmentalist, anti-Americans, flag waiving patriots, capitalist….. They all suck in the end. Nature is one I have never been able to criticize and belittle.

    Reality is a curious human construction. When you start studying it you lose it. I hate watching a good movie. When the movie is over I feel like my sense of reality has been raped. I have been intellectually abused but I was the dumbass to allow it. There are few solutions to our reality of unreality. There is little sense because we lack sense. We have created a world that is too much to process. We have the truth at our finger tips. Right now any one of us could use our fingers and through the World Wide Web become the richest man in the world. We could probably destroy the world. Imagine if you found the secrets to life as you are tapping on your computer. See I just did it.

    I want to go off line one of these day. I did this back in 2003. I completely cut myself off from all power sources. I lived in a Tipi deep in the woods for 40 days. I drank water from a spring. I had people bring me supplies. It didn’t last because my family started treating me like I was mentally ill. Who was mentally ill is my question? I might just do this for 2 weeks so people don’t get the wrong idea. The problem with getting old is you get lazy. The laziness comes from your body and mind succumbing to pain and decline. I can’t take the elements like I once did. There was a time when I was a survivalist now I just live like an old fool in a small cabin. Good luck in the asylum friends.

  13. Davy on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 5:52 am 

    “Putin’s Not On Our Team”: Obama Worried Americans Trust Putin More Than U.S. Gov’
    http://tinyurl.com/hupmsol

    “The people are no longer buying the lies. Period, end of sentence. And it has outgoing-president Obama all worked up. So does this mean war? Underlying the post-election hysteria surrounding “Russian hacking” and “fake news” is the basic issue of trust – the U.S. Government, the Congress, the media and most leaders in Washington just don’t have it. So that have to make up reasons. Any way you slice it, the complete lack of trust was a major reason for the defeat of Hillary Clinton – widely perceived as corrupt and untrustworthy. In his most recent statement, an exiting Obama expressed his concerns that Russia’s alleged-meddling in the election went so far as to win over the hearts and minds of the American people – in what would supposedly amount to the ultimate blowback of disinfo and propaganda after decades of pure B.S…. At heart, it is one of his most ridiculous assertions yet.”

  14. Davy on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 6:12 am 

    For those of you who consider Trump’s administration disruptive you may want to read this article that presents a good outline of what to expect within the constraints of the checks and balances of the US government and presidential authority.

    “A Complete List Of What Trump Can, And Can Not Do, On Day One And For The Rest Of 2017”
    http://tinyurl.com/jc5ka32

  15. Hubert on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 6:32 am 

    @Kathy C

    This stupid country has been run by Wall St. scampers/Hollywood JEWS/ Banksters /Miltary Industrial Complex for last 50 years:

    https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=from+jfk+to+911+everything+is+a+rich+man%27s+trick

  16. Davy on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 6:43 am 

    “Very quickly, very nearby’: Jumbo asteroid has close shave with Earth”
    https://www.rt.com/news/373171-asteroid-flashes-earth-quickly/

    “An asteroid between 11 to 34 meters across (36 to 111ft), roughly the size of 10 jumbo African elephants, made a remarkably close approach to Earth on Monday morning, passing by at a distance only half that of the Moon.”

  17. Cloggie on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 6:55 am 

    Meryl Streep and Roman Polanski:

    http://truthfeed.com/flashback-meryl-streep-gave-rapist-roman-polanski-a-standing-ovation-in-2003-oscars/45883/

    “Rapist?”… make that’s child rapist.

    Meryl Streep and her private little war against Trump:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxyGmyEby40

    Streep, Madonna, “lady” Gaga, the Clintons, Tom Hanks, the entire western media (US+EU)… all natural water carriers of globalism and the kosher NWO… that is now going under, making way for the multi-polar world order, as predicted by the great American prophet Samuel Huntington.

  18. Davy on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 7:22 am 

    Hollywood and by extension the US, bears significant responsibility for some of the worst cultural defects of modern man. I have no respect for the acting profession nor the big screen as an art form. TV is killing us culturally.

  19. Cloggie on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 7:54 am 

    Meryl Streep’s speech is a truly iconic document of the transition age we are living in, away from US-lead progressive, expansive globalist modernity towards something more conservative if not outright archaic (hi IS!). Streep’s speech could be understood as a farewell-speech. Streep, who never really was beautiful, has meanwhile the aura of an aging librarian, although admittedly she is a great actress. Some comments on her speech in front of a globalist rainbow audience of Hollywood millionaires, a setting where Kumbaya does indeed work, but not on the streets of America and Europe.

    I love you all. You have to forgive me, I have lost my voice in screaming and lamentation this weekend and I have lost my mind sometime earlier this year so I have to read.

    Unfortunately she hasn’t really lost her voice and since the speech doesn’t come from her heart (although she is actress enough to run the tear taps wide open) she has to read it from a paper. Wonder who wrote this speech. Spielberg? Polanski? Soros? We will never know or much later, comparable that we only found out decades later that most of Churchill’s anti-German speeches were written by a Waley Cohen, CEO of Royal Dutch Shell. But I digress.

    Thank you, Hollywood Foreign Press. Just to pick up on what Hugh Laurie said, you and all of us in this room really belong to the most vilified segments of American society right now. Think about it: Hollywood, foreigners and the press.

    At least they picked up THAT message correctly. Vilified, not by the media of course, but via the populist media outlet aka the internet.

    But who are we and, you know, what is Hollywood, anyway? It’s just a bunch of people from other places… Where are their birth certificates?

    There we go again, the cosmopolitan globalist creed as promoted by the US elite (for no other reason than to ram the entire world into a single tax farm, the ultimate power dream of the handlers of Streep). It doesn’t matter where you were born, you can mix everything and the result will be a “melting pot” containing a good-smelling delicious meal, not a powder keg that at some point will say boom!

    Ryan Gosling, like all the nicest people, is Canadian.

    Snicker. What happened to Friday anyway?

    So Hollywood is crawling with outsiders and foreigners and if we kick them all out, you’ll have nothing to watch but football and mixed martial arts, which are not the arts.

    Streep can’t imagine that being glued to the screen and watching 2-3 murder stories per night (plus soft porn, endless adultery, violence) is perhaps less than beneficial for your mental health and makes your own boring life even less meaningful. Well, we can still go the theater and watch Shakespeare. Oh wait, the non-whites are not interested in these “old white guys”. Google: “Yale Students Seek to Abolish ‘Oppressive’ Courses That Include White Poets Like Shakespeare”. There is of course a little self-serving quality to this remark by Streep. She wants us to consume her product and make her a multi-millionaire in the process. How about playing a game of chess, like in the old days or join a football team. The possibilities are endless and would turn the passive TV-watcher into an active participant.

    It was that moment when the person asking to sit in the most respected seat in our country imitated a disabled reporter, someone he outranked in privilege and power and the capacity to fight back. It, it kind of broke my heart when I saw it and I still can’t get it out my head because it wasn’t in a movie. It was real life.

    Oh poor thing, “broke my heart”, sure darling. Standard leftist demonization tactics and virtue signaling. The story has been debunked or rather put into proper context:

    http://tinyurl.com/ha5ll3u

    Violence incites violence.

    Absolutely, every American policeman can sing a song about that one. But Streep will never identify the most violent creatures on the streets of America. George Soros and the NYT would not approve of that and Streep is conditioned to serve their interests only, not of the US deplorables.

    OK, go on with that thing. OK, this brings me to the press. We need the principled press to hold power to account, to call them on the carpet for every outrage.

    Sure, but only Trump & Putin, not Obama. We can let the Obama regime instigate a terrible war in Syria via their IS tool but the “free principled press” and Hollywood will never question that. Instead they will accuse Putin-Russia of being a threat of the entire world, after the State Department (Vicky “f* the EU” Nuland) via their CIA tool, organized a violent coup in Kiev, threatening to turn Sevastopol-Crimea into a NATO naval harbor. Russia could not let this happen. The invasion was admittedly not in line with international law, but the West broke all the rules in Kiev first.

    As my, as my friend, the dear departed Princess Leia, said to me once: “Take your broken heart, make it into art.”

    You just took your broken heart and made into a fart.
    Mind the step on your way out Meryl. Goodbye und auf niemals Wiedersehen. Say hello to mr Schindler in heaven, will ya?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-o9yKIYE2ZE

  20. Boat on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 7:54 am 

    Davy,

    I pay my tv bill to get news, sports, sex and violence. Netflix changed the world. What’s not to like.

  21. Midnight Oil on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 7:55 am 

    The Trump Train will roll over all opponents and neutralize the political left. Hollywood blitz does not realize their vocal outbursts on his character aids his strategy, not realizing the middle Joe six Pak, porch sitting, need a shower and shave and his clan hates them Hollywood liberal types.
    Boy, the billionaire gang must be rolling over on this one. Did not learn anything from the defeat of Hillary?

  22. Davy on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 8:00 am 

    Boat, you are special and an exception to the rule. Don’t worry and carry on patriot

  23. Cloggie on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 8:48 am 

    “An asteroid between 11 to 34 meters across (36 to 111ft), roughly the size of 10 jumbo African elephants, made a remarkably close approach to Earth on Monday morning, passing by at a distance only half that of the Moon.”

    The planet can easily handle that one. From 100 m onward the effects are going to be felt on a larger area than merely local:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event

    Dinosaurs were killed by a meteor between 5-15 km (3-10 miles):

    http://www.killerasteroids.org/impact.php

  24. paulo1 on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 9:46 am 

    Good morning.

    The article was fine until the misleading statement:

    “Their special relationship with the USA is deteriorating now that the USA is moving towards energy independence and more reluctant to prop up fundamentalist regimes.”

    Ha ha on both counts, especially with a Mike Pence making decisons on social issues. Energy Independence? Come on. The US is on the path to an oppresive police-state Kleptocracy. This is insanity.

    In a few years the wheels will really be wobbling, imho.

    Davy, I went offline for awhile, and still limit my interest to this site and just a few others. When the comments turn into personal attacks I just stay away. Life is short and no sense in wasting any of it.

    All the best for 2017, people.

  25. Davy on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 10:14 am 

    Glad your back Paulo. Too bad we don’t talk more about prepping as many of us did in the past. Maybe someone will come on board looking for some advice and we can get that thread back in action.

  26. Davy on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 10:17 am 

    “For Bill Gross, This Is The Only Thing That Matters For The Market Right Now”
    http://tinyurl.com/h6hc33d

    “This is my only forecast for the 10-year in 2017. If 2.60% is broken on the upside – if yields move higher than 2.60% – a secular bear bond market has begun. Watch the 2.6% level. Much more important than Dow 20,000. Much more important than $60-a-barrel oil. Much more important that the Dollar/Euro parity at 1.00. It is the key to interest rate levels and perhaps stock price levels in 2017.” – Bill Gross”

  27. Kathy C on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 10:56 am 

    Davy, we think alike 🙂 Interesting how once you accept that it is all over, being on sides doesn’t matter. And then you are free to evaluate all sides and nothing looks quite the same anymore.

    Getting away from it all is a boon, but I am too old now to really do that. But I get out in our chicken yard or sink my hands into the dirt of my garden and all that has something that is not what we usually call truth, but is closer to it than anything we humans say. Its not true or false, it just is what it is to me.

  28. Kathy C on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 11:11 am 

    Cloggie we agree on much. But you wrote “The slightly more constructive attitude would be to double our efforts and move away from fossil as fast as we can.” Unfortunately James Hansen has told us “Aerosol cooling probably reduced global warming by about half over the past century, but the amount is uncertain because global aerosols and their effect on clouds are not measured accurately”
    He calls this the Faustian Bargain. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2013/20130329_FaustianBargain.pdf
    What it means is that once the fossil fuels stop burning or even if they are just cleaned up (think China) global warming goes into overdrive. There is no way out unless one wants to try putting stuff into the atmosphere to provide dimming via other means.
    Meanwhile no one has built a windmill or solar panel without using fossil fuel for transporting such things as rare earth metals from China etc. There is no proof that one can sustain the manufacture of windmills and solar panels without fossil fuels.

    Meanwhile the Artic is warming rapidly and releasing more and more methane. The climate feedbacks are IMO too big now to counteract no matter what one does.
    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/global-extinction-within-one-human.html

    And part of doing without fossil fuels is still nuclear power plants which are aging, and dangerous to life on earth. I consider this article a MUST read http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/7301-400-chernobyls-solar-flares-electromagnetic-pulses-and-nuclear-armageddon What humans should be doing is shutting down every nuclear power plant – but that usually takes a huge investment in energy and money and about 60 years. As we finally head down the peak oil cliff who will give up the energy they supply and use even more to do that? Yet if it is not done 400 plants worldwide will go critical.

    Its really much easier to stop butting your head against a wall. Hug your loved ones. Accept that inevitable death will come sooner than expected. Make peace with the grim reaper. If you are fertile get your tubes tied so you are not responsible for creating a child who will have an untimely death.

  29. Cloggie on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 11:56 am 

    Kathy, I never heard before that we could get “run away global warming if we stop burning fossil fuel”. Anyway, you will find a lot of friends here who have similar very doomerish views as you have. I’m somewhat the local techie village idiot here, who says “first see, then believe” and meanwhile keep a positive attitude and promote doing what in all reason can be done (swapping fossil fuel for renewable energy).

    Meanwhile no one has built a windmill or solar panel without using fossil fuel for transporting such things as rare earth metals from China etc. There is no proof that one can sustain the manufacture of windmills and solar panels without fossil fuels.

    I could challenge that statement and have done so in the past (the statement is patently false)…

    http://peakoil.com/alternative-energy/2016-was-the-year-solar-panels-finally-became-cheaper-than-fossil-fuels-just-wait-for-2017/comment-page-1#comments

    ..but by doing so I risk my forum life here.lol

    But at least consider this: the EU has embarked on a program of getting rid of fossil fuel almost entirely by 2050. These folks have access the best energy consultants on the planet. If what you and many other laymen here claim that you can’t have renewable without fossil fuel, they would not have embarked on that program. I am a trained energy engineer (university) myself, worked on wind and solar and storage and can confirm that you can very well have a 100% renewable energy base in the long run without fossil fuel.

  30. GregT on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 12:32 pm 

    Plenty of soothing, colourful images to peruse here:

    https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/january-brings-one-more-blast-of-arctic-air-mild-air-ahead/77972/

    We’ve been stuck in a cold pattern up here in the Pacific Northwest since the end of November. 32″ of snow has fallen since then, and it is still all on the ground, with more to come. This has never occurred in the 49 years that I have lived in the area. We normally get two to four small snowfalls each winter, which usually change to rain by the next morning. For the last several years we haven’t even had a hard freeze, and many of our flowers continued to bloom all winter long. Last summer was the wettest on record, and the summer before that was the driest.

    Expect more of the same in the future, and expect those extremes to become more widespread and commonplace as the years roll on. When the Arctic gets warm enough, expect runaway climate change to render our little blue planet unrecognizable, and eventually, uninhabitable. Alternate electric power generation will do nothing to stop it, and as Kathy C mentioned above,
    in all likelihood will help accelerate runaway CC.

  31. GregT on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 12:39 pm 

    “Kathy, I never heard before that we could get “run away global warming if we stop burning fossil fuel”.”

    The you obviously haven’t been paying attention Cloggie.

    http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/aerosols-and-global-warming-faq.html#.WHUpprG-LMU

    http://atmos-chem-phys.org/10/3247/2010/acp-10-3247-2010.pdf

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jul/04/sulphur-pollution-china-coal-climate

  32. Davy on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 12:39 pm 

    Kathy, once again great to have you here. Yea, we know we have our points of view becuase that is who we are but we can detach ourselves if we accept no-fault existentialism. I say no fault but at a certain level. There is a place for blame but that can’t be all there is.

    I am currently working in the goat pen fixing holes that goat kids can get out of. Goats are going to kid in March. There isn’t much in the world more cute than a goat kid. It is 67 degrees with high winds. I just had a goat hut take to the air. January and we have these temperatures and then we have climate deniers claim all is well. Lol.

  33. Davy on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 12:45 pm 

    Clog, I appreciate your alternative energy contributions. I read every one of them. I am excited about what is being done. I feel a brick wall will be hit around 40% market penetration on a regional scale. I say this mainly becuase of grid and storage issues will drive cost up and cause instability. But what do I know.

    Clog, I don’t care for your climate denying discussions. To me that is doing a great disservice to our future. You can be excessively upbeat about alternatives but denying climate change is being an idiot.

  34. rockman on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 6:39 pm 

    Davy – I agree…glad to have Kathy here and hopes she continues contributing. Not that I agree with some (maybe many) of her positions but she talks much gooder then some here. LOL.

    MO: “Hollywood blitz does not realize…the middle Joe six Pak, porch sitting, need a shower and shave and his clan hates them Hollywood liberal types.” The same point I made to my liberal Yankee wife. And not just Hollywood but all those on the left throwing verbal sh*t bombs at the PEOTUS…deserved or not. All that accomplishes is confirming their presidential choice. Including those in the middle that held their nose when they pulled that lever for the Donald.

    The left is only insulting the Trump supporters which only affirms their decision. As that old Chinese general wrote long ago (and I paraphrase): Don’t enrage and motivate your enemy on the verge of the big battle. Just quietly move in behind him and beat the sh*t out oh him with a big stick. LOL

  35. Kathy C on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 7:46 pm 

    Rockman, thanks (sort of). 🙂
    THis article hits hard but I think gets to the problem with the left. http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46189.htm
    The left has been so busy decrying the problems with the right that they have been bamboozled.

  36. Kathy C on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 8:06 pm 

    Clogged, I am sorry, I didn’t know they were transporting raw materials from China using ships with sails, please send me a link. I didn’t,t know that factories in the us were using electric 18 wheelers to move materials in and product out, or did our rail lines all get electrified when I wasn’t looking. I wasn’t aware that our road maintenance was now being done by electric steamrollers and dumptrucks. What size batteries or what length extension cords to keep our interstates in good order?

    I said nothing about efficiency. I was talking about the ability of our transport to run on electricity when you are talking about replacing large machines that have to travel far from a power source.

    the ability to produce a windmill or solar panel without using fossil fuels cannot be proven while our whole infrastructure absolutely relies on fossil fuels. SHow me evidence that the clipper ships are being built once again…..

  37. Anonymous on Tue, 10th Jan 2017 8:46 pm 

    I can tell you what our resident denier will tell you.

    He will say:

    I never said it WAS being done, I said it COULD be done, because I read an article on the internet that said progress on these and other fronts is proceeding at a dazzling pace. (Just don’t ask where or how, or even when all this progress is occurring). Apparently its all being implemented in Holland as we speak, but actual evidence of this is sketchy at best.

    OR

    I saw an article an article that talked about some very limited proof of concept that is being tested by some university students (somewhere) that, is(tangentially) connected to the imminent renewable-powers-all-world-to-come.

    OR

    Someday, at un-defined point in the future, whatever I claimed will happen, is going to happen. Because to me (cloggie), my saying its possible, pretty much means it has and is happening right now. (Even though it clearly is not).

    If he feels you really in need of an edumacation, he will link a youtube vid of some hayseed sheep farmer in crackertown uSa, a sort of slightly less idiotic version of davy, that uses bio-whatevers to make a little farm-grown fuel for his own use. From that, he will tell you bio-fools can power all western Europe’s high-speed rail, data farms, cars, and factories.

    That pretty much sums up his canned replies to anyone that questions his dubious assertions on the matter.

  38. rockman on Wed, 11th Jan 2017 1:26 am 

    Kathy – Interest article. A tad unnecessarily harsh on you commies…I mean liberals. LOL. In truth I don’t tend to split right and left too much as far as the bottom line goes. On rhetoric…hell yeah. But that’s where politicians stake out their many of their voters…on words and not actions.

    I warned my wife years ago about the ever widening political division we’ve going thru. President Clinton didn’t get elected because of the success of the R’s in the early 90’s…but it didn’t hurt his chances. President Bush didn’t get elected because of the success of the D’s in the late 90’s…but it didn’t hurt his chances. President Obama didn’t get elected because of the success of the R’s in the early 2000’s…but it didn’t hurt his chances. And PEOTUS Trump didn’t get elected because of President Obama’s policies…but it sure as hell didn’t hurt his chances. LOL.

    I experienced the worse events of my 65 year life under a D POTUS. But it wasn’t because he was a D. It was because he was a politician who did what the electorate wanted him to do…at the time.

  39. Cloggie on Wed, 11th Jan 2017 2:51 am 

    Kathy says: Clogged, I am sorry, I didn’t know they were transporting raw materials from China using ships with sails, please send me a link. I didn’t,t know that factories in the us were using electric 18 wheelers to move materials in and product out, or did our rail lines all get electrified when I wasn’t looking. I wasn’t aware that our road maintenance was now being done by electric steamrollers and dumptrucks. What size batteries or what length extension cords to keep our interstates in good order

    I didn’t know either. But from your statement emanates an entitlement attitude that seems to think that we should keep every we once had (large container ships, 18 wheel trucks, planes). Nobody suggests that we are going to have a plug-and-play renewable energy base that is going to replace the existing fossil one as if nothing happened, not unlike replacing a graphics card in your computer. In reality everything is going to change. Forget about globalism. There is no need to have an integrated world economy. Open Society freak George Soros might like that, but who cares about George? Why not let Americans drive in their own cars; Europeans, Japanese and Chinese likewise. And why own a car in the first place? Why not instead rent a light-weight electric driver-less car for your occasional transportation needs? So we don’t really need endless gigantic container ships. The steel of these ships can be used to construct wind turbines.

    Why do we need planes? It only brings folks like makati to places where they don’t belong. Why do hundreds of thousands of western tourist need to visit the Taj Mahal every year and invariably catch themselves a nice made-in-India diarrhea? You can see the Taj Mahal in much better detail on Youtube while sipping your coffee (or some locally grown coffee replacement like mint tea), rather than waiting in line with thousands of other backpackers, like I saw in front of the Vatican last summer (I paid 12 euro extra to skip the line).

    As Kunstler suggests, we’re much better of to get rail going back on track again (pun intended). My own country Holland is the embarrassing taillight in Europe when it comes to renewable energy, which has everything to do with Holland being a former colonial power (no longer, thanks America) and with Shell Oil being one of the Anglo Seven Sisters.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Sisters_(oil_companies)

    Together with giant Slochteren gas field (once #9 in the world) enough reason to not pay too much attention to renewable energy. But that is now all changing. Since January 1, Holland is the first country in the world which intensively used rail system is for 100% powered by wind energy.

    http://tinyurl.com/j45za96

    the ability to produce a windmill or solar panel without using fossil fuels cannot be proven while our whole infrastructure absolutely relies on fossil fuels.

    What you are basically saying is: “look I am a 6 month old baby and all I do is filling diapers, so I will never be a brain surgeon!”. We all know that in reality sufficient baby poopers do morph into 30+ year old brain surgeons, you just need to be a little patient (for 30 years), study and work and don’t ask too many questions once you have set yourself the goal to become a brain surgeon. I trust you get the analogy with renewable energy. But patience and long term thinking are not very American traits; you want it all and you want it now. Doesn’t work like that.

    One of the very promising developments is that big companies like IKEA…

    http://tinyurl.com/zmgmzbs

    …but also Apple and Google volunteer to invest in their own energy supply.

    [to be continued]

  40. Cloggie on Wed, 11th Jan 2017 4:48 am 

    Bro from Toronto claims: I never said it WAS being done, I said it COULD be done, because I read an article on the internet that said progress on these and other fronts is proceeding at a dazzling pace. (Just don’t ask where or how, or even when all this progress is occurring). Apparently its all being implemented in Holland as we speak, but actual evidence of this is sketchy at best.

    The real renewable energy giants to date are Denmark (the real prioneer), Germany, Italy and Texas. As I said Holland was lagging behind but is now catching up with break-neck speed.
    When this progress is occuring?

    https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/energy-strategy
    The official EU energy policy is to get get rid of fossil by 2050 or 33 years. But there are several voices, especially in Holland who says that it can be done in 13 years:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/netherlands-sustainable-by-2030/

    During one of the last share holder gatherings a majority voted to turn Shell into a renewable enrgy company; the board was not ready yet, but they got the message:

    http://www.tranzitioner.com/will-shell-become-sustainable-after-all/

  41. Cloggie on Wed, 11th Jan 2017 5:02 am 

    Oh my cloggie, the problem is we don’t have 30 years.

    Yes we have:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2593032/Coal-fuel-UK-centuries-Vast-deposits-totalling-23trillion-tonnes-North-Sea.html

    Don’t believe the DailyMail, believe your own former somewhat peaker, Michael Klare:

    http://tinyurl.com/zryr8k2

    He no longer refers to peak oil. Peak oil/Heinberg/ASPO-2000 is so 2005. Trump is right, there is still for centuries worth of coal in the earth’s crust. Not that we should consume that fossil, but at any rate, there is enough fossil fuel left to set up that new renewable energy base. With two fingers in the nose.

    Trump is nostalgia. He wants to make America great again, whatever that may mean. He is building on old fossil glory so apparently we are going to have a very green planet.lol

    https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth

    Fine with me. Britain was #1 in the 19th century because they exploited coal first.

    America was #1 in the 20th century because they exploited oil first.

    Europe could be #1 in the 21st century because we will exploit renewable energy first.

    Good luck with your coal, Donald.

    Let Robert scribble all he wants, who cares about a 2,000 mile^2 iceberg. Snow is falling on giant Antarctica all the times and never melts. The only way to get rid of superfluous ice and prevent Antarctica to peep through the atmosphere into outer space is by losing weight on the sides, into the sea.

  42. Cloggie on Wed, 11th Jan 2017 5:07 am 

    This is a model how a renewable society can be build by (affluent) western societies and its citizens:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/07/windpark-krammer/

    Secondly we afford to lose 2/3 of our renewable energy production and still be OK. At least I was in the seventies.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/07/dutch-post-war-electricity-production/

    Overview of the plans in the North Sea which is going to be the world’s number 1 energy province:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/02/wind-offshore-projects-plans-in-nw-europe/

  43. Kathy C on Wed, 11th Jan 2017 5:09 am 

    Rock, trust me the article is not being too harsh on liberals. I have lived among them. I have been one.
    I an introspective person and have long looked at my own hypocrisy – for instance wanting equality for all humans while being unable to give up my lifestyle. I live somewhat simple by American standards but even that puts me in the 1% world wide.
    I remember for instance all the brouhaha about the 1% in the US from people who are in essence among the richest in the world and in time. Those protesters in Zucotti park didn’t want justice, they just wanted the piece of pie they had come to expect. Nothing was said about any piece of the pie for half the worlds population that live on $2 a day or less. Once you judge yourself a hypocrite, you find yourself rather alone among all the others who refuse to do self inspection and put themselves up on pedestals while condemning others. And they do not like you bringing this hypocrisy to their attention.
    I never trusted Obama and took flack about that from liberal friends. Then I watched them give him a pass over stuff they would have crucified Bush for. I was wrong of course. He was much worse than I thought he would be.
    BUT in my wildest imagination I never thought I would see liberals acting like the CIA was an honest broker. It turns my stomach. Haven’t we liberals raged against the CIA for all the governments they overthrew? Haven’t we deplored how they interfere in US politics? Haven’t we be thankful for the Church investigation? Don’t we remember Operation Mockinbird? Didn’t we listen to Gary Webb about the CIA starting the crack epidemic?
    But now suddenly just because it is Trump who got elected, they have become saints?

    Remember Curveball, the secret source the CIA used to get 4,000 Americans killed and 1 million Iraqi’s killed. You know the one who was totally discredited
    https://news.vice.com/article/the-cia-just-declassified-the-document-that-supposedly-justified-the-iraq-invasion
    Discrediting of the current story isn’t taking quite so long http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-10/4chan-claims-have-fabricated-anti-trump-report-hoax or wouldn’t be taking so long if it weren’t for liberals suddenly thinking the CIA is a reliable, credible, unbiased organization.

    65 Rock? Hmm I always thought you were younger. Ah well I am still your elder at 68 🙂

  44. Cloggie on Wed, 11th Jan 2017 5:11 am 

    Even Shell is pressing the Dutch government to really think big and install 50 WG in the Dutch part of the North Sea (Holland currently consumes 32 GW):

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/07/gold-mine-north-sea/

    One of the largest offshore wind parks has been realized:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2016/12/31/gemini-wind-park-nears-completion/

    Now the Dutch government is gearing up for larger projects:

    http://www.windpowermonthly.com/article/1418517/shell-consortium-wins-borssele-iii-iv-%E2%82%AC5450-mwh

    Shell and Dong (Denmark, not China) are going to build 5 new wind parks of the coast of the Dutch Zeeland province.

  45. Kathy C on Wed, 11th Jan 2017 5:11 am 

    OK Cloggie, you are not worth my time in responding to.

  46. Cloggie on Wed, 11th Jan 2017 5:15 am 

    It is likely that offshore wind power is far cheaper than anticipated:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/07/offshore-wind-life-expectancy/

    All the countries bordering the North Sea have meanwhile maritime equipment like this, with which you can install a 5 MW turbine in a single day:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2016/12/31/aeolus-rapid-offshore-wind-turbine-monopile-deployment/

    A lot of submarine cables are being built like this new one between Holland and Denmark:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/construction-started-cobra-cable-netherlands-denmark/

    Existing ones: NorNed, BritNed, NorGer (the names are not very original but the cables are very cost effective in evening out fluctuating renewable energy and storing energy in mountainous Norway)

  47. Cloggie on Wed, 11th Jan 2017 5:16 am 

    OK Cloggie, you are not worth my time in responding to.

    I know, the usual nihilism.

    Leave it to us Europeans, dear.

  48. Cloggie on Wed, 11th Jan 2017 5:18 am 

    There is so much you can do in saving energy:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/06/led-lights-in-greenhouses/

    Everybody talks about wind and solar, but in northern countries space heating can be three times as big a chunck of the total energy budget as electricity:

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/02/merits-seasonal-heat-storage-breakthrough/

  49. Davy on Wed, 11th Jan 2017 5:22 am 

    Clog, you have made great strides in Northern Europe. You are an example for all of us for integration of alternatives into an existing fossil fuels world along with significant behavioral adaptations. You all are to be applauded. Yet, how much has solar and wind replaced since this effort has really left the ground? This is a glaring failure. You are under 10% for 20 years of effort. The second 10 years was based on bubble economics with high artificial liquidity that is now in the process of ending. Now and then is the easy part because these achievements are really just status quo for a region focused on a particular policy. What is coming is not status quo. When your alternative energy penetration goes beyond 40% region wide and starts to include all those other niches that fossil fuels inhabit your successes may be harder won. When factories need to be included and when you start reproducing the equipment and replacing existing installed equipment. Transport is going to be an issue. Heavy Equipment will be even harder. Grid innovations and storage are areas that have yet to be seriously invested in but will be required. This has never been done so mistakes of learning will be high.

    All this is at a scale of space and time that is huge. The dollar amounts are astronomical at a time when Europe is legally broke and running on talk. You will need investment from the rest of the world indirectly will that come? The amount of space for all these windmills, solar panels, and storage locations unbelievably large. This will accompany the fact that Europe will need to continue to be competitive with the rest of the world with many of whom will continue to use other means or combinations and some being more competitive. Your populations are aging and your neighbors are pressing at your doors. Your current infrastructure both physical and cultural must be maintained. If we have an economic crisis this will surely dent your abilities to do so much investing. The economy is always that inconvenient constant that is not factored in. We might have a war or the Eurozone might fragment. Globalism may die a thousand deaths and your Northern Europe is an export economy that will die along with it.

    I am fully behind you guys. I believe you will make incremental advances. You will be a model for the rest of the world which we need so badly. I still think you are going to get to a point where your steam is going to run out and you will not be an example of an energy transition that you guys are advertising. The degree of change is too great considering all that must be done and all the other problems and predicaments ahead. Remember we are at planetary limits. Our economies with technology and efficiency are clearly demonstrating diminishing returns. Alternative energy with lower EROI will compound this. We are in overpopulation with overconsumption issues. Ecosystems are failing. Climate is destabilizing. In the best of times your advertised energy transition would be difficult but today it seems impossible. That said I hope the hell you succeed. All you have now is talk to rebut what I have said. This has never been done so humility and modesty is warranted.

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