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Page added on September 27, 2018
Predictions Of Early ‘Peak Oil’ Demand Don’t Pass The Goldilocks Test
Adherents of the currently faddish demand side of “Peak Oil” theory (as opposed to the formerly faddish supply side, which was completely blown out of the water in recent years by the shale revolution) received a big dose of bad news over the weekend from OPEC. At a meeting with its non-OPEC oil-exporting partner nations in Algiers, the organization’s new report projects global crude demand to rise at an annual average of 1.4 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) through 2020 and by 1.2 million bopd from 2021 through 2023.
The report does project slower demand growth thereafter, but does not foresee a “peak” in global crude demand anytime before 2040, by which time total demand for crude oil will have risen to almost 112 million bopd. As the Wall Street Journal points out, that is up from OPEC’s forecast last year for 2040 demand of roughly 107.5 million barrels a day.
The “Peak demand” finding by OPEC is right in line with a similar projection from the International Energy Agency earlier this year , but a bit at odds with a statement by Shell Oil Co. CEO Ben Van Beurden in March that demand could peak as early as 2025 if every nation meets its goals set out in the Paris Climate Accords: “It depends on what you want to believe. If you believe that Paris is going to be a success, that somehow the nations of this planet are going to get our act together, are going to be effective in devising and enforcing policies that will decarbonize the energy system, my expectation is then that oil demand will peak in 2025, 2026.” Of course, while this was widely reported as a “prediction” in the energy-related media, Van Beurden went on to clarify that that was not at all the case, characterizing this possibility as “the Goldilocks scenario.”
We all know that “Goldilocks” is a fiction, and as we have found in the months since Mr. Van Beurden’s statement, so is the thought that most nations would be meeting their Paris goals. The reality is that very few nations are in fact doing so, and as I pointed out in a piece last month, “China’s 2017 emissions rose by 1.6 percent over 2016. India’s were up 4.4 percent, Indonesia’s by 5.5 percent. In Europe, from which much of the criticisms of the U.S. have originated, more than half of all countries saw their emissions increase during 2017. Total emissions in Europe were up 2.5 percent during that time frame, and overall global emissions rose by 1.6 percent.”
These rising carbon emissions are a clear sign that, despite hundreds of billions of dollars in new investments, the rapid adoption of solar, wind and other renewable power sources envisioned in the Paris agreement is not coming about as envisioned, lending much more credence to the scenario envisioned by OPEC and the IEA. Even that 2040 peaking scenario could well end up being overly-optimistic. After all, the IEA has consistently been forced to upwardly revise its initial annual demand growth projections in recent years , as has OPEC.
28 Comments on "Predictions Of Early ‘Peak Oil’ Demand Don’t Pass The Goldilocks Test"
Antius on Thu, 27th Sep 2018 10:26 pm
Interesting book written by a fellow British white nationalist. Free to download.
http://www.thefallofwesternman.com
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 27th Sep 2018 10:50 pm
when the bartender cuts you off
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DoICeh3U4AAHI3Y.jpg
“I’ll tell you when I’ve had enough!” – Kavanaugh responding to the bartender or the guy behind him in the rape train
GetAVasectomyAndLetTheHumanSpecieDie on Thu, 27th Sep 2018 11:26 pm
Western civilization is dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4O-HFAiJDrI
Jaz on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 1:01 am
Predictions of peak demand by 2025 is fantasy.
Globally we are building 100 million new vehicles and another 100 million more combustion engines for a whole range of other uses.
http://ronney.usc.edu/whyicengines/whyicengines.pdf
forbin on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 1:39 am
“We all know that “Goldilocks” is a fiction”
and so was this article …..
Forbin
Cloggie on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 2:55 am
“Western civilization is dead.”
It is, now it needs to be buried.
Long live the North!
http://tinyurl.com/y8ydx6a9
Cloggie on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 3:07 am
The end of history… no more.
Herald of liberal democracy world-wide Fukuyama (not to be confused with that other disaster Fukushima) says that identity politics are a threat to democracy:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/theworldpost/wp/2018/09/18/identity-politics/
Fukuyama stopped snoring, good for him. The truth goes much deeper, identity politics will blow up the entire West and the US, USSR-style.
People world-wide have a different centuries/millenia old ethnic-racial-religeous identity and are unwilling to trade that in for a uniform globalist, everybody libtard coca-cola drinking non-identity.
Davy on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 4:34 am
“Predictions of peak demand by 2025 is fantasy.”
Predictions either way are fantasy at this point. We are on the knife edge of change that could curtail demand drastically in human crisis and decline. It is also true this juggernaut of globalism can carry on for year but its time is near. We continuously hear from science about continuous growth on a finite planet and its consequences even though it does not sink in because of our habituation to growth. We see multiple evidence of overshoot on multiple different planes of existence but the consequences part is a frog boil. Every day that goes buy is a day closer to the end of the status quo of the unsustainable.
jaz on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 6:40 am
Davy
I agree. There are so many issues that cannot be resolved and another billion people will add to the problems in the next 12 years.
https://www.fishforward.eu/en/topics/facts-figures/
Half of all the top soil that ever existed has be blown or washed away in the last 150 years.
https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/soil-erosion-and-degradation
Chemical pollutants
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/09/orcas-killer-whales-poisoned-pcbs-pollution/
Without bees a third of all food will vanish.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-23/bee-death-increase-may-be-tied-to-climate-change-survey-says
Davy on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 7:27 am
“Gold-Based Monetary System To Bring Price Stability To Crypto”
https://tinyurl.com/yackvxyy
“Gold-based monetary system Kinesis aims to bring price stability to the world of cryptocurrency and to prevent the decrease of its value.”
“The Kinesis team decided to create its own “efficient, secure and fair monetary system” based on two of the most stable commodities in the world — gold and silver.”
“Kinesis offers digital currencies based 1:1 on allocated physical gold (KAU coins) and silver (KAG coins). When users purchase Kinesis currencies, they actually purchase real metal. The ownership of the gold is digitized with blockchain technology, which allows the user to hold or transfer currency from their Kinesis e-Wallet. The Kinesis debit card allows the owner to make the instant conversion of KAU and KAG into fiat currency and spend cryptocurrency all around the world. The company states that, unlike other cryptocurrencies, the transactions through the Kinesis system will take just two to three seconds as a result of their bespoke fork of the Stellar network, which is able to withstand over 3,000 transactions per second. Kinesis believes KAU and KAG currencies could be used in day-to-day purchases like buying a cup of coffee or even buying a car. Besides paying the bills, the Kinesis Monetary System can be used for managing international payments with lower transfer rates offered by banks and other international payment services. Another option offered by the network is the ability to trade holdings on the Kinesis Blockchain Exchange. The cryptocurrencies can be transferred back to physical gold or silver as the system generates a 0.45 percent fee when these are transferred between the holders, accumulating in a pool to be distributed back to users of the system in the form of a yield.”
Dredd on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 9:08 am
The infinite oil myth does not pass the smell test (The World According To Measurements – 21).
Even the oceans, which far surpass the oil reserves, are not said to be an infinite number of gallons.
Who is lying?
Antius on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 9:24 am
The ‘no-near-term-peak-oil’ crowd usually point to huge deposits of carbon in the ground as evidence of vast liquid fuel resources. Where they fall down is their failure to consider EROI. This makes most of the resource practically useless as an energy source.
Declining EROI has been a growing problem for decades. Peak oil (supply, demand – both the same in practical terms) will happen when the world economy is locked into a deflationary depression, in which prices are too low to stimulate development of new supply. Idiots will call it peak demand in an attempt to make everyone feel better.
Anonymous on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 1:45 pm
US net imports of crude and products are down to 2.34 million bopd. This is the lowest since at least 1973 (statistics don’t go further back).
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=m
For reference, during the heyday of The Oil Drum (2004-2010), our net imports were over 12 million bpd. In other words, our balance of trade has improved to the tune of 10 million bpd.
If trends continue, we will become a net exporter of crude and products in a year and a half.
Anonymous on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 1:59 pm
Good job, Rockman. Keep on fracking. 😉
Anonymouse1 on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 2:12 pm
If trends continue, ‘marmitard’ will become a net exporter of his same crude and tiresome bullshit in a year and a half.
Cloggie on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 2:30 pm
“The ‘no-near-term-peak-oil’ crowd usually point to huge deposits of carbon in the ground as evidence of vast liquid fuel resources. Where they fall down is their failure to consider EROI. This makes most of the resource practically useless as an energy source.”
Have you considered EROI of UCG? And took into consideration that EROI is not written in stone, but a moving target, strongly correlated to technology?
UCG worked fine in the USSR until it was superceded by easy oil and gas in the sixties or so.
A few links:
EROI values from Chinese projects:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12182-017-0201-2
https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/south-australia-looks-trial-underground-coal-gasification
Difference CSG and UCG:
https://ccsg.centre.uq.edu.au/article/2018/05/underground-coal-gasification-totally-different-coal-seam-gas
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/01/underground-coal-gasification/
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/02/uk-government-rejects-ucg/
Davy on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 2:32 pm
It sucks when your message turns to shit aye gimp..LMFAO
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 2:54 pm
Italy announces a budget that could wreck its economy
ITALY’S populist government came to power in June on the back of extravagant promises. The hard-right Northern League, headed by Matteo Salvini, said it would slash taxes. The anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), led by Luigi Di Maio, offered an income guarantee for the unemployed and poor. The two parties formed a coalition government and, ignoring Italy’s public debt of almost 132% of GDP, promised a spending spree.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2018/09/28/italy-announces-a-budget-that-could-wreck-its-economy?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/italyannouncesabudgetthatcouldwreckitseconomydebtandtaxes
This is what happens when you let the lowest IQ white people in charge..Greece went bankrupt at 150% debt to GDP..So it shouldn’t be long for Italy..And they don’t have their own central bank so they can’t just print whatever they want like the US and Japan for example..
So long Populist white trash!
LMFAO!
Anonymous on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 3:49 pm
The state of Texas has just now passed Iraq (barely, by like 9 thousand bopd). It is producing more oil than the following countries: Iraq, Iran, China, and Canada. It is number 4 in the world as a “country”. After US overall, Russia, and SA. This is incredible.
Antius on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 4:31 pm
“Have you considered EROI of UCG? And took into consideration that EROI is not written in stone, but a moving target, strongly correlated to technology?”
Interesting. There is a staggeringly large quantity of coal within the Earth.
http://pierie.nl/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/coal_reserves_large-Source-Saturn-Minerals.png
I suppose time will tell how this plays out. There are underground coal fires in the Appalachians that are still burning, decades after being ignited. The Australian experience suggests that this could be risky.
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 5:06 pm
Anonymous
Bragging about Texas oil production is like baking cakes..And buying the ingredients for ten dollars and selling the cakes for five dollars, and then bragging about how many cakes you sold..
Shale oil is like non fat yogurt..
makati1 on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 7:29 pm
When the US financial crash happens, much of the fraked oil will disappear due to the companies going visibly bankrupt. They never made a profit and a billions in debt.
US consumer demand for petroleum products will go way down so it may even out, but I doubt it. The crash will take the US into the 3rd world for the rest of its existence. The “Greatest Depression” is just around the corner as I see it. Are YOU prepared?
boney joe on Fri, 28th Sep 2018 9:40 pm
I AM THE MOB
Stay strong and I really do empathize with your feelings of frustration over the Republican arsenal of dirty tricks (ex., fake conspiracy stories, winning at any price, flagrant hypocrisy, lies and more lies).
Never let the bad guys overwhelm you. Sometimes we need a break from the madness to recharge ourselves.
Cloggie on Sat, 29th Sep 2018 1:08 am
IEA upbeat about prospects offshore wind in Europe: at least 200 GW nameplate by 2040 and perhaps even 350 GW:
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/27/iea-chief-predicts-200-gigawatts-of-offshore-wind-by-2040/
Note that the average 24/7/365 power consumption in the EU is ca. 300 GW.
Cloggie on Sat, 29th Sep 2018 3:04 am
“I AM THE MOB
Stay strong and I really do empathize with your feelings of frustration over the Republican arsenal of dirty tricks (ex., fake conspiracy stories, winning at any price, flagrant hypocrisy, lies and more lies).”
Millimind and boney joel have found each other as buddies. Let’s see if they are really two different persons or is it yet another attempt at identity reset of millimind/i am the mob.
Davy on Sat, 29th Sep 2018 6:15 am
“NantEnergy Says Zinc-Air Battery Ideal For Grid Storage”
https://tinyurl.com/y8u8hq8a
“NantEnergy, with offices in Phoenix, Arizona, and El Segundo, California, came to the One Planet Summit in New York City this week to introduce to its zinc-air battery. Compared to conventional lithium-ion batteries, the company’s zinc-air batteries offer lower cost and longer duration. And since there is little risk of overheating and fire, they require no cooling system, which adds cost to all lithium-ion battery packs.”
“Before you go thinking this is yet another story about some battery breakthrough in the lab that is years away from commercialization, you should know that zinc air batteries from NantEnergy have been around for 6 years already. They are currently used in over 1,000 cell phone towers and have been installed in more than 100 villages in Africa and Asia to bring the benefits of electrical power to communities with no access to an electrical grid.”
“The design of the zinc-air battery is simplicity itself — plastic components including the casing, a circuit board, and zinc oxide. In the charging phase, electricity converts zinc oxide into zinc and oxygen. In the discharge phase, the cell oxidizes the zinc with air. The basic battery is little bigger than a briefcase.”
Davy on Sat, 29th Sep 2018 6:55 am
“The New sonnen EcoLinx Pulls Residential Energy Management Into The Future”
https://tinyurl.com/y9ms583x
“ecoLinx takes residential energy management to the next level by stretching beyond energy storage into management of key loads in ways that were previously not possible thanks to direct integration with Eaton’s smart breakers and a home automation solution. At its core, the sonnen ecoLinx is an intelligent, connected home energy storage system, and as the foundation of the product, it does what you would expect — ecoLinx can be configured with anywhere from 10 to 20 kilowatt-hours of energy storage per unit, which it stores in 2 kWh modules of muRata lithium-iron-phosphate (LiFePo4) batteries. (muRata was formerly Sony’s battery division.) ecoLinx has an integrated inverter that was designed to play nicely with the DC feed from a photovoltaic (PV) solar array as well. Pulling the energy generated from a rooftop PV system into ecoLinx allows it to decide whether to store the rooftop PV energy or convert it to AC to power the home, depending on the load and generation profiles at the time. That is the basic function of just about any home energy storage system today. ecoLinx, however, is much more than just a dumb battery that stores power from the sun and doles it out as needed. It can do that, but it can also do so much more. The differentiation starts with some good old-fashioned integration with Eaton’s smart breakers. Eaton’s breakers allow ecoLinx to manage loads at the panel by querying the status of individual breakers and even throttling their usage up or down as needed.”
Davy on Sat, 29th Sep 2018 6:55 am
This is an excellent demand management tech product. I am doing some of this now with my solar system and transfer switches. I also have a wood boiler I run when I need hot water. I practice demand management with electrical use, heating/cooling, and hot water needs. I do this mostly manually because I do not have the smart system like the article above explains. Imagine what could be done with a smart system and the behavioral efforts like I am doing.
Lowering emissions and our macro ecological footprint can be achieved with the behavior and tech of demand management. We can try to manage the feeling of lower affluence that demand management results in also. If we are going to lower emissions and a negative footprint then we must manage our energy consumption. Much of this is a no brainer of changing dirty and sloppy lifestyles. We need to stop our delocalizing behavior and our desire to travel and consume on demand per our discretionary tastes. The other issues is managing our consumption in our localized environment that takes localized efforts further. Just stopping poor behaviors is not enough we also need to manage good consumption.
I can do manual demand management because I am working on a farm where I rarely leave. When the weather changes I can go and throttle down my power usage to reflect needs. I can stoke my wood boiler in the morning and generate the 180 degree water to be exchanged with cold water during the day to get my heat and hot water needs or not if nothing is going to happen that day. I have an electric hot water heater to always have hot water but any major usage like a shower of cleaning cloths and dishes I make sure I have wood heat going. This means staggering usage for maximization of need. I can run my AC on solar or open the windows depending on my needs. I can also use the grid to heat and run AC. Other can’t do this because they have an 8-5 job away from their house. This requires a smart system to manage their needs.
I would like to see a system that is grid attached that can switch to grid for power and put power back on the grid as needed. When personal demand is low but power production is available we need to still utilize that power production because these systems have to bring a return so no power should be wasted. Currently my system is off grid with batteries and transfer switches. I have to manually switch back and forth and I cannot put excess power back on the grid to lower my grid bill. Shifting power on/off the grid as needed when weather changes and intermittency demands power on/off the grid and this done automatically would greatly enhance peoples efforts at lowering emissions. Including batteries in the mix allows greater resilience if the grid goes down or becomes unstable.
It is my opinion that a hybrid system of on/off grid with human and tech demand management features will lower emissions and maintain a feeling affluence. This does not come cheap. It requires changing lifestyles and paying for the system. We also need to realize if a significant amount of people choose to do this it will be disruptive economically. Lower demand and consumption is deflationary. Personally I think we have no choice but it will be a challenge with good and bad consequences and unintended consequences.