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Population growth will fall to zero in Asia by 2050

Population growth will fall to zero in Asia by 2050 thumbnail

Asia’s rapidly ageing population means the region is shifting from being the biggest contributor to the global workforce to subtracting hundreds of millions of people from it, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The reversal of the so-called “demographic dividend” will drag on global growth and also that in Asia, the world’s fastest growing region, the IMF warned in its annual outlook for the area.

The population growth rate will fall to zero for Asia by 2050 — it’s already negative in Japan — and the share of the population who are working-age has already hit its peak, the IMF estimates.

That means the ratio of the population aged 65 and older will be almost two and a half times the current level by 2050, and even higher in East Asia.

“The speed of ageing is especially remarkable compared to the historical experience in Europe and the United States,” the IMF said.

Per capita income in Asia relative to the US remains at much lower levels than those achieved by mature advanced economies in the past.

“Countries in Asia will have less time to adapt policies to a more aged society than many advanced economies had,” the fund wrote. “As such, parts of Asia risk becoming old before becoming rich.”

For economic growth, the ageing process could erode up to one percentage point from annual output over the next three decades in Japan, and between 0.5-0.75 percentage point in China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Thailand.

While some bright spots remain, such as India and Indonesia, demographics could subtract 0.1 of a percentage point from annual global growth over the next three decades, the IMF estimates.

It also means Asia is at risk of falling into secular stagnation if an older population leads to excessive savings and low investment renders monetary policy ineffective.

The demographic shift will also likely keep downward pressure on real interest rates and asset returns for most major countries in Asia, the IMF said.

“Adapting to aging could be especially challenging for Asia, as populations living at relatively low per capita income levels in many parts of the region are rapidly becoming old,” the IMF said.

Reforms to labour market laws, pension programs and retirement systems are among the changes needed to offset the pain. Immigration can also help.

An older workforce isn’t the only challenge facing Asia. Finding ways to boost productivity is also vital given headwinds that include slowing investment, the growing influence of less productive sectors such as services and the waning influence of external trade, the IMF said.

While the severity of the productivity slowdown varies across Asia — it has been most severe in advanced economies and China — reversing the trend should be a priority.

Enhanced trade liberalisation and more effective spending on research and development are among the steps needed, the IMF said.

“Reforms to strengthen domestic sources of productivity growth should be high on the policy agenda in Asia,” it added.

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28 Comments on "Population growth will fall to zero in Asia by 2050"

  1. Davy on Tue, 9th May 2017 7:22 am 

    2050 is too late. Asia is doomed to a die down. There is little that can be done. The same is coming elsewhere but the Asian die down will be particularly horrible because of the size of the reduction to a sustainable population. This may be some ways off but 2050 is surely a fantasy number.

  2. makati1 on Tue, 9th May 2017 7:40 am 

    Davy likes to believe that Asia is a worse place than the U$ to live. His delusional ideas are just that. Asians can live on rice and a bit of protein. Stuff they can grow without fossil fuels or machines. ANY protein. What does it take to keep an American fed? Fossil fuels and a huge, for profit, food industry. Facts don’t lie, but they can be ignored, as is typical in America today. The Mississippi River should be renamed the Denial River. LMAO

  3. peakyeast on Tue, 9th May 2017 7:54 am 

    Living at almost / soon 2.0 Earths ressources I dont see 2050 coming with any civilisation resembling what we have now.

    We are still on the trajectory of the standard scenario in LTG despite all the hee-haw. I dont see anything today resembling a significant deviation from this.

  4. Davy on Tue, 9th May 2017 9:39 am 

    Numbers don’t lie except in makatiworld. In that world numbers are arbitrary and the truth is according to emotions.

  5. bobinget on Tue, 9th May 2017 10:11 am 

    Chinese took to SUVs like fish to bicycles.
    Watch out for pitchforks once oil is unaffordable—– except for ultra rich. Talk about class warfare!

    Not just China. Lucky we, here in North America have seen the light, grown out of teen angst, buying nothing but solar plug-in cars and high doses of solar panels.
    OTOH
    Will ‘Peak Oil’ slow sexual intercourse? (AKA reproduction)

    No kidding. By 2050 climate change will have impacted every one of round earth’s corners.

  6. Apneaman on Tue, 9th May 2017 12:26 pm 

    Make H2O Great Again


    America has a water crisis no one is talking about

    Outdated infrastructure is making water too expensive for millions of families

    https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/5/9/15183330/america-water-crisis-affordability-millions

  7. Davy on Tue, 9th May 2017 1:13 pm 

    Not as great as this H2O and air problem.
    “Emergency Alert” Declared At Hanford Nuclear Facility In Washington, Evacuation Ordered”
    http://tinyurl.com/ljcl4b7

    “According to KING-TV, a “tunnel in a plutonium finishing plant collapsed in Hanford early Tuesday morning. The tunnel was full of highly contaminated materials such as hot radioactive trains that transport fuel rods.”

    “As a reminder, during the Cold War, the project was expanded to include nine nuclear reactors and five large plutonium processing complexes, which produced plutonium for most of the 60,000 weapons in the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Alas, the site has been leaking ever since, as many of the early safety procedures and waste disposal practices were inadequate and Hanford’s operations released significant amounts of radioactive materials into the air and the neighboring Columbia River.”

    “Hanford’s weapons production reactors were decommissioned at the end of the Cold War, but the decades of manufacturing left behind 53 million US gallons of high-level radioactive waste, an additional 25 million cubic feet of solid radioactive waste, 200 square miles of contaminated groundwater beneath the site and occasional discoveries of undocumented contaminations.”

    “The Hanford site represents two-thirds of the nation’s high-level radioactive waste by volume. Today, Hanford is the most contaminated nuclear site in the United States and is the focus of the nation’s largest environmental cleanup. The government spends $2 billion each year on Hanford cleanup — one-third of its entire budget for nuclear cleanup nationally. The cleanup is expected to last decades.”

  8. Hubert on Tue, 9th May 2017 3:55 pm 

    Real people who are going to have hard time are idiots in America who have never learned how to fend for themselves. Suicide rate in America has long past the highway deaths.

  9. _______________________________________ on Tue, 9th May 2017 4:38 pm 

    Too bad. Global iq will fall even lower.

  10. Sissyfuss on Tue, 9th May 2017 6:50 pm 

    Then you’ll fit right in __________.

  11. makati1 on Tue, 9th May 2017 6:55 pm 

    Davy, “Numbers don’t lie except in makatiworld. In that world numbers are arbitrary and the truth is according to emotions.”

    Why can’t you post some references to numbers that prove America is better? I’ll tell you why. Because there are none. Asia is still growing. America is shrinking if real numbers are used. Even if the Ps 6% GDP growth this year is really only half that, it is still triple the real growth in America which has been zero for years. Wave that bloody flag. It is all American ‘patriots’ have left. Oh and about $200 Trillion in debts.

  12. makati1 on Tue, 9th May 2017 7:00 pm 

    Hubert, you see the real America. Snowflakes, immorality and debt are killing America from within. All China and Russia have to do is wait.

    Self sufficiency is still alive in Asia and most other countries. It has been dead in the Western world for some time now. Most could not even repair the stuff they own, if it breaks down and feeding themselves from their own gardens is a lost art. If the plastic charge card doesn’t work, they are dead.

  13. Davy on Tue, 9th May 2017 7:09 pm 

    I post number all the time showing you are in no better position makati. I don’t do makatism where I talk up myself and talk down others. I show balance and sobriety not sensationalism in extremism. You are a fake and a lie hence makatism.

    P’s is a pimple on the ass of global GDP. My state of Missouri with 6MIL people has a GDP nearly what your P’s has with 100MIL. Get a grip makati you are in a dream world.

  14. makati1 on Tue, 9th May 2017 9:38 pm 

    Davy, your bullshit means nothing to me. I enjoy pissing you off and pointing out the failed country you live in. It is being flushed down the shitter at ever increasing speeds. I cannot change it so I watch it happen and advise my family and friends to prepare accordingly.

    You have no idea what actually living in a foreign country is like. You are stuck in the dying empire called “America”. Reality is denied in every bit of info that is sourced there. Brainwashing propaganda, prepping the serfs for nuclear war and/or economic depression.

    BTW: Better to be a pimple than a cancer. LMAO

  15. Davy on Wed, 10th May 2017 5:16 am 

    I enjoy squashing your lies and agenda makati. Makati, I have lived in Spain and Germany. I had an internship in Germany. I spoke two foreign languages. What do you speak, dumb and dumber? You just hang out with the English speaking expats there in Manila because they like you are pissed off anti-Americans on the run. You are stuck in the hell hole of Manila, a place at the top of population density and dirt. You could return to your family in the US but you have created such a persona non grata in your mind that your delusional pride won’t let you. Makati, one question, I thought I was on your ignore list? LMFAO

  16. makati1 on Wed, 10th May 2017 6:30 am 

    Davy, When? Now? You seem to have an intimate, firsthand knowledge of Asia and the world outside of the West, but have never been there. Spain and Germany are Western countries, and don’t count. They are America’s lap dogs. You are so brainwashed you cannot see outside your pretend world called America. You know, the one going to hell on the debt express. All the finger pointing and flag waving will not change that. Enjoy!

    This week in the “news”:
    “A Tour Down Homicide Lane, As Baltimore Descends Into Chaos”
    “Thousands Flee Chicago For Safer Areas Of The Country As America’s Third Largest City Becomes A Gang-Infested Wasteland”
    “Chicago Gangs Turn To “Armor-Piercing Rifles” In Police Ambush”
    “Debt Apocalypse: US Student and Auto Loans Hit New Record of $2.6 Trillion.”
    “Warning for baby boomers: Your Generation X kids are coming back home (for good)”
    “Move over, California: Florida has the USA’s worst drought” (U$ food security?)
    “Minnesota faces worst measles outbreak in decades”
    “Flint wants residents to pay for their poisoned water—or face losing their homes”
    “Silicon Valley ‘Tech-Slaves’ Forced To Live In Their Cars”
    “Why the Retail Crisis Could Be Coming to American Groceries” (U$ Food security?)
    “The Decline of the West: Left or Right, It Doesn’t Matter”
    “Dangerous bridges: 100,000 are at least 65 years old and subjected to thousands of daily crossings”
    “Workers Evacuated From America’s “Most Contaminated Nuclear Site” After Railway Tunnel Collapses”
    “Drugs Are Killing More Americans Than Road Crashes”
    “A New Street Drug Can Kill You By Touching Your Skin: What You Need To Know”
    And on … and on … and on …

  17. Davy on Wed, 10th May 2017 6:46 am 

    Makati, why do I need an intimate knowledge of Asia? I know plenty from my studies and numbers don’t lie. Most of the worlds overshoot is now in Asia and you are right in the middle of it being in a dense city of 20MIL. These type places are a death trap. Your farm is a joke or you would be there. You have been talking about it now for 4 plus years. Who says Spain and German don’t count? That is another makatism. I learned two languages and lived in a different culture. That was years ago and now I believe in localism not being a fake jet setter like you. You are stuck in your little 27th floor apartment overlooking slums so don’t tell me you know Asia. You live in filthy air and act like you are in the healthiest place on earth.

    The problem with you makati is you are on welfare and don’t know it. You have this mistaken feeling you deserve for US tax payers to support you in your slum retirement. You don’t deserve any money for social security because your generation bankrupted it. You should be hard at work as all older people should be. I work all day long. I am here in the morning drinking my coffee. It is my intellectual exercise. I am back at lunch. Between those times I am on my IPhone when I take breaks. A “real” farmer works. You lay around the pool with the boyfriend sipping on beers and eating pretzels. What a scum bag.

  18. makati1 on Wed, 10th May 2017 7:24 am 

    Davy, “studies” from what source? American MSM bullshit? And Manila is not close to 20 million residents. More like 12-15 million at best. You NEED to know ‘first hand’ before you spout off your propaganda about a place you have never been. I have been here 9 years. I live here. I know. I do not have to ‘read about it’ in some Western propaganda rag. I also know the U$ as I lived there 63+ years and still visit annually.

    I am getting my SS tax money back. Over $180,000.00 so far. I will continue to get it back until it ends. Tomorrow? 5 years? Longer? I doubt it. I do not rely on it. It was a forced ‘investment’ and I will soon break even. Then I will take it with an even bigger smile on my face, knowing you are paying for it. LMAO.

  19. Davy on Wed, 10th May 2017 10:53 am 

    Makati, the metropolitan area of greater Manila and surroundings. Add that up and get back to me:. It is uninterrupted urbanization 20MIL strong.

    Makati, by your definition, you need to clarify your sources and where have you been in the last 10 years. Not here except for a few weeks a year. You don’t know what is really up here. You do the same thing I do and rely on sources. Your sources are little different than mine and you mindlessly reference them without explanation. So you just described yourself by describing me dumbass.

    Folks; I thought I was on the makati ignore list. I must have whooped his ass good to flush him from the bushes.

  20. GregT on Wed, 10th May 2017 11:25 am 

    What’s with your fixation on Manila Davy? And ‘whooping’ other men’s asses?

  21. Davy on Wed, 10th May 2017 12:04 pm 

    Greg, read the comments and try to include your gang buddy, makati’s part too. We were in a discussion on him saying my home is bad and his good. That is the simple Simon of it trooper. Greg, go prick someone else. I thought I blistered you enough last week, Hawaii five O.

  22. Kenz300 on Wed, 10th May 2017 12:45 pm 

    The world adds 80 million more people to the planet every year. That growth continues.

  23. GregT on Wed, 10th May 2017 1:33 pm 

    Davy,

    Mak is entitled to his own opinion, and he lived in ‘your home’ for longer than you’ve been alive.

    Hawaii five O to you too. Whatever the fuck that’s supposed to mean?

  24. Davy on Wed, 10th May 2017 1:40 pm 

    Greg, who has the fixation? Go prick someone else. Does makati need you to stick up for him? This was between makati and I. Go play your boat game. Boat has a right to his own opinion or is that different?

  25. GregT on Wed, 10th May 2017 1:52 pm 

    There’s a big difference between opinions and facts Davy. Most of what Boat posts is easily proven to be complete nonsense.

  26. Davy on Wed, 10th May 2017 1:59 pm 

    Oh, greg, what a pompous asshole you are and like you are the expert on the difference between fact and opinion. I would expect that sort of comment out of someone fixated on his own self-importance.

  27. GregT on Wed, 10th May 2017 2:30 pm 

    Facts:

    Makati has lived in the US longer than you have been alive.
    Makati has lived in the Ps for 9 years, you have not.

    Opinions:

    Informed:
    Makati likes the Ps better than he likes the US.

    Uninformed:
    You like the US better than the Ps, where you have never lived.

    Give it a rest already Davy.

  28. Davy on Wed, 10th May 2017 2:50 pm 

    Greg, quit your mental JO. How do you know what I like, buckwheat? Your BS is not what we were discussing so go back to the beginning and remove your emotional agenda and get back to me with some real facts of the discussion makati and I had. You can also go be a prick somewhere else.

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