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Page added on May 16, 2017

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Peak oil will be demand driven

Consumption

We were supposed to run out of oil eventually. They called it peak oil.

But it will never happen now. At least not how you expected.

Can you imagine the early Stone Age humans worrying about running out of stones to make their tools? Or Bronze Age tribes arguing over what would happen to their society after all the bronze is melted up? Did the Iron Age civilizations debate about how to deal with “peak iron”? Maybe they subsidised less efficient tools made out of sustainable and renewable wood.

It probably never happened. Although, you never know…

What did happen is that we moved on. We found something better each time. Any problems finding the right stone, bronze or iron helped us move on by encouraging research and development efforts. Probably trial and error or accidental discovery back then.

The same is happening in the world of oil today. Each time the price spikes, alternative technology gets another boost. Eventually oil will cause the spike to impale itself on. Another source of energy will suddenly become stronger, more efficient, cleaner, easier to use and the all-important one – cheaper.

It looks like we might reach that tipping point very soon. More on that in a second.

What you need to understand is that peak oil will be a demand-driven phenomenon. Just as we didn’t run out of stones in the Stone Age, bronze in the Bronze Age or iron in the Iron Age, we won’t run out of coal or oil. We’ll move on to something.

It’s the transition phase that’s interesting. And the point at which you can position yourself to profit most as an investor. There’s one big rule. Don’t look to the government for guidance…

The diesel disaster

In the midst of humanity’s progress, you have governments wreaking havoc. From ethanol to diesel, as soon as the government gets involved in the process, it’s a mess.

I didn’t know about the diesel disaster until I discovered it today. It was hidden underneath all the VW emissions scandal news that dominated the headlines.

Having encouraged people to buy diesel cars by cutting excise duty, the government then discovered that diesel cars actually have higher poisonous emissions. Someone probably should’ve checked the emissions before we encouraged emitting them. But who would get in the way of a good political initiative?

Well the environmental group ClientEarth sued the British government for the damage it’s doing to the environment with its diesel policies. I couldn’t find any record of it supporting the diesel excise duty cut to reduce CO2 emissions in the first place, but it probably did.

Anyway, the high court ruled that the UK’s toxic air policies are so bad they breach EU law, which compels governments to implement decent efforts. Here’s my favourite part of Justice Garnham’s ruling on how to interpret the EU law: “I reject any suggestion that the state can have any regard to cost.” And that’s another reason to leave the EU!

So it looks like oil and its derivatives like gas are going to be targeted by the government. That’ll drive up their cost, which suits companies just fine. But their time is coming to an end altogether as the higher costs push alternatives to the realm of the possible.

Imagine if you were a bronze investor at the end of the Stone Age. Or an iron ore investor at the end of the Bronze Age. Or you bought oil stocks before the Royal Navy was refitted from coal to oil by order of a Mr Churchill before the First World War.

Your ancestors would probably still be living it up. Which begs the question, what comes after oil?

White diesel and the Electric Age

Now that you know about the diesel shemozzle, it’s a rather unfortunate name. But my friend Eoin Treacy is sticking with it.

It’s the resource that will power the coming age – the Electric Age. It’s white diesel.

The challenge of the Electric Age isn’t power generation, it’s distribution and storage: how do you get the power from a station to move a wheel or charge a phone where it’s needed? Our current infrastructure and battery technology isn’t efficient enough.

The infrastructure technology remains stuck for the most part. But battery tech is powering ahead. And that’s creating your investment opportunity.

A futurist economist from Stanford and a London-based tech investor formed the think tank ReThink X, which recently published its forecast on the car industry in the US. It’s mind-boggling stuff.

The economists reckon that transport will become a service, not something we do for ourselves. Initially the trend is in delivery of the things we go out to buy and lift hiring like Uber. Then, as driverless and electric cars emerge, the trend will accelerate dramatically. The cost will be four to ten times cheaper per mile thanks to far higher utilisation rates of vehicles, lower maintenance costs and lower energy costs. It will only take ten years from autonomous vehicle approval before 95% of passenger miles are travelled by such cars.

All this is going to destroy the oil industry as we know it. From the ReThink X report:

As fewer cars travel more miles, the number of passenger vehicles on American roads will drop from 247 million to 44 million, opening up vast tracts of land for other, more productive uses. Nearly 100 million existing vehicles will be abandoned as they become economically unviable.

“Demand for new vehicles will plummet: 70% fewer passenger cars and trucks will be manufactured each year […]

The transportation value chain will deliver 6 trillion passenger miles in 2030 (an increase of 50% over 2021) at a quarter of the cost ($393 billion versus $1,481 billion).

Oil demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day by 2020, dropping to 70 million barrels per day by 2030.[…] This will have a catastrophic effect on the oil industry through price collapse (an equilibrium cost of $25.4 per barrel), […]

So what do all these electric autonomous vehicles need to power themselves? Batteries filled with white diesel – lithium.

ReThink X thinks lithium is important enough to put in its executive summary:

The geopolitics of lithium and other key mineral inputs to A-EVs are entirely different from oil politics. There will be no “Saudi Arabia of lithium.” Lithium is a stock, while oil is a flow. Disruption in supply of the former does not impact service delivery.

Imagine the Middle East without oil money. Or Scottish independence without oil money. How will US shale states fare? And what will happen to Russia’s stranglehold over eastern Europe if it doesn’t need Russian gas?

Welcome to the Electric Age. Here’s how to position yourself to profit.

Until next time,

Nick Hubble
Capital & Conflict



81 Comments on "Peak oil will be demand driven"

  1. Cloggie on Tue, 16th May 2017 8:19 am 

    But how are we going to bring this to Richard Heinberg?

  2. eugene on Tue, 16th May 2017 8:38 am 

    Written by a man who doesn’t understand peak oil. Another “don’t worry folks, infinite happiness is here”. Think about no more “out of milk, gotta run to the store”. It’ll be make a call, get a number and wait for the car. Or the lack of electrical supply so more plants have to be built. Personally, we live in a world of dreams and schemes.

  3. Richard on Tue, 16th May 2017 8:44 am 

    Cloggie, what are you on about?

    Mr Heinberg has been correct. He may sound deluded living in 2003 or something. But he wasn’t wrong.

    I think the idea of the petroleum car just vanishing is incorrect.

  4. dave thompson on Tue, 16th May 2017 9:30 am 

    First line sez; “We were supposed to run out of oil eventually. They called it peak oil.” I stopped reading after that erroneous statement.

  5. Cloggie on Tue, 16th May 2017 9:33 am 

    Mr Heinberg has been correct. He may sound deluded living in 2003 or something. But he wasn’t wrong.

    He was majestically wrong, nay he was wrong in a titanic way. He claimed that after 2015 physical shortages would gradually kill off industrial society (“the party is over” or something).

    The reality is that in 2017 some oil producers beg other producers to produce less because of collapsed prices.

    Furthermore, the prices of wind and solar are meanwhile lower than fossil, with the consequence that now new installed capacity is globally largely renewable. There is more potential for further substantial price decreases, to the tune that by 2020 you can buy a standard 100×160 cm/280Watt panel at Walmart for $100,-

    Richard is somewhere in this video:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JdEdAVVQWU

    There is a reason why Heinberg moved to Trump-bashing. At least in that field he doesn’t have to make forecasts.

  6. rockman on Tue, 16th May 2017 9:45 am 

    “We were supposed to run out of oil eventually. They called it peak oil.” Well, at least he right up front he gives a hint what to expect. LOL.

    So did they also sue the EU countries that actually build diesel vehicles: “Page added on May 16, 2017

    Bookmark and Share
    6035 Votes

    Peak oil will be demand driven

    Consumption
    We were supposed to run out of oil eventually. They called it peak oil.

    But it will never happen now. At least not how you expected.

    Can you imagine the early Stone Age humans worrying about running out of stones to make their tools? Or Bronze Age tribes arguing over what would happen to their society after all the bronze is melted up? Did the Iron Age civilizations debate about how to deal with “peak iron”? Maybe they subsidised less efficient tools made out of sustainable and renewable wood.

    It probably never happened. Although, you never know…

    What did happen is that we moved on. We found something better each time. Any problems finding the right stone, bronze or iron helped us move on by encouraging research and development efforts. Probably trial and error or accidental discovery back then.

    The same is happening in the world of oil today. Each time the price spikes, alternative technology gets another boost. Eventually oil will cause the spike to impale itself on. Another source of energy will suddenly become stronger, more efficient, cleaner, easier to use and the all-important one – cheaper.

    It looks like we might reach that tipping point very soon. More on that in a second.

    What you need to understand is that peak oil will be a demand-driven phenomenon. Just as we didn’t run out of stones in the Stone Age, bronze in the Bronze Age or iron in the Iron Age, we won’t run out of coal or oil. We’ll move on to something.

    It’s the transition phase that’s interesting. And the point at which you can position yourself to profit most as an investor. There’s one big rule. Don’t look to the government for guidance…

    The diesel disaster

    In the midst of humanity’s progress, you have governments wreaking havoc. From ethanol to diesel, as soon as the government gets involved in the process, it’s a mess.

    I didn’t know about the diesel disaster until I discovered it today. It was hidden underneath all the VW emissions scandal news that dominated the headlines.

    Having encouraged people to buy diesel cars by cutting excise duty, the government then discovered that diesel cars actually have higher poisonous emissions. Someone probably should’ve checked the emissions before we encouraged emitting them. But who would get in the way of a good political initiative?

    Well the environmental group ClientEarth sued the British government for the damage it’s doing to the environment with its diesel policies.”

    “But their time is coming to an end altogether as the higher costs push alternatives to the realm of the possible.” And given the world is consuming near record levels of oil today “their time” seems to be a good way down the road…pun intended.

    “The economists reckon that transport will become a service, not something we do for ourselves”. And again given the 84 million new vehicles added in 2016 to the existing 1.2 billion currently on the road this will have to happen (if it ever does) a long way “down the road”.

    “…dropping to 70 million barrels per day by 2030. This will have a catastrophic effect on the oil industry through price collapse…an equilibrium cost of $25.4 per barrel.” The last time the world consumed 70 mm bopd in 2003 the inflation adjusted price of oil was $41.20/bbl. Of course there were 50% fewer ICE’s on the road in 2003 then there are today.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle

    So current demand for motor fuels should be a tad higher now. Maybe that’s why both consumption and oil prices are significantly higher today then in 2003. Ya think? LOL.

    “And what will happen to Russia’s stranglehold over eastern Europe if it doesn’t need Russian gas?” So that huge increase in EV use either won’t require more electricity? Or Europeans won’t continue to heat their homes with NG? I’m not clear on how lower demand for oil will negatively impact demand for NG. If anything it would seem more likely to increase it.

  7. rockman on Tue, 16th May 2017 9:50 am 

    Sorry…screwed up that last post. Ignore and see below:

    We were supposed to run out of oil eventually. They called it peak oil.” Well, at least he right up front he gives a hint what to expect. LOL.

    So did they also sue the EU countries that actually build diesel vehicles: “Page added on May 16, 2017

    “But their time is coming to an end altogether as the higher costs push alternatives to the realm of the possible.” And given the world is consuming near record levels of oil today “their time” seems to be a good way down the road…pun intended.

    “The economists reckon that transport will become a service, not something we do for ourselves”. And again given the 84 million new vehicles added in 2016 to the existing 1.2 billion currently on the road this will have to happen (if it ever does) a long way “down the road”.

    “…dropping to 70 million barrels per day by 2030. This will have a catastrophic effect on the oil industry through price collapse…an equilibrium cost of $25.4 per barrel.” The last time the world consumed 70 mm bopd in 2003 the inflation adjusted price of oil was $41.20/bbl. Of course there were 50% fewer ICE’s on the road in 2003 then there are today.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle

    So current demand for motor fuels should be a tad higher now. Maybe that’s why both consumption and oil prices are significantly higher today then in 2003. Ya think? LOL.

    “And what will happen to Russia’s stranglehold over eastern Europe if it doesn’t need Russian gas?” So that huge increase in EV use either won’t require more electricity? Or Europeans won’t continue to heat their homes with NG? I’m not clear on how lower demand for oil will negatively impact demand for NG. If anything it would seem more likely to increase it.

  8. dave thompson on Tue, 16th May 2017 9:55 am 

    “What did happen is that we moved on. We found something better each time.” There will be no moving on when it comes to liquid fossil fuels and the ultimate depletion that we are witnessing today in the form form of lower and lower net end user energy. What is after oil? There are still plenty of stones.

  9. bobinget on Tue, 16th May 2017 9:59 am 

    The word of the ‘day’ should be “Decentralization”.
    Centralized power generation, AKA ‘the grid’ will slowly but surly diminish. I know that sounds nuts but what if you read in 2007 that by 2017 you could buy a family electric car that one could plug-in at home and drive two or three hundred mile without touching the steering wheel. Would you believe it?

    (in 2007 we were five years into our oil war in Iraq)

    Tall buildings will have reflective glass for one exposure and PV generated power for another.
    Apartment complexes will co/generate electric power, heat water, climate controlled through-out.

    PV roof shingles are great for detached homes.
    Most people (in the world) live in apartments.

    Most people can’t see disruptive technical, political,
    climate, changes as we live within them.

    We are experiencing all three rat now. It’s called ‘living in interesting times’.

    We survived our Civil War, The Great Depression,1963, Vietnam Era, Nixon and an inter-racial President.
    Never in our history have we experienced so many political, climatic, technological, scientific, geological,
    religious, disruptions.

    This nation, the world, will survive .The emperor has been proven to have no clothes.

  10. Cloggie on Tue, 16th May 2017 10:12 am 

    “What did happen is that we moved on. We found something better each time.” There will be no moving on when it comes to liquid fossil fuels and the ultimate depletion that we are witnessing today in the form form of lower and lower net end user energy. What is after oil? There are still plenty of stones.

    This century renewable and next century fusion.

    Don’t be stoned 😉

  11. dave thompson on Tue, 16th May 2017 10:26 am 

    So called renewable energy factories that run on so called renewable energy tell me Cloggie where and or when will we see this coming about? Next century fusion? And here I have been told it is just ten years away?

  12. GregT on Tue, 16th May 2017 10:26 am 

    “Furthermore, the prices of wind and solar are meanwhile lower than fossil, with the consequence that now new installed capacity is globally largely renewable.”

    Stopped reading at that point. There is no such thing as renewable energy. No matter how you try to spin it, all electric power generation is a byproduct of fossil fuels, as are all of the gadgets that we use that electricity for, the grid that distributes that same said electricity, as well as modern industrial society itself. The End.

  13. Cloggie on Tue, 16th May 2017 10:42 am 

    Greg (and makati) both desperately clinging on to the false conclusions drawn in the past.

    #DiggingYourselfInAHole

    Entire continents are moving into alt-energy, yet Greg (and makati) stubbornly keep saying “it won’t work”.

    Whatever floats your boat, Greg.

    I have asked the question several times before and I am asking it again pro forma (against better knowledge): please give me a pointer to a prominent book or article that makes the point that renewable energy can’t work without fossil fuel.

    You and I know there isn’t any (please spare me Charlie Hall), but you refuse to retreat from your previous convictions, that you probably have broadcasted far and wide. And now there is no way back.

    I believed that ASPO-2000 bullshit, until November 2012, but after the fracking story began to rear its head (thanks Rockman!), I knew the story was wrong. There is nothing wrong with admitting that earlier convictions were wrong. Just let it go.

    So called renewable energy factories that run on so called renewable energy tell me Cloggie where and or when will we see this coming about?

    Don’t look any further. In Denmark there are one of the largest wind power factories in the world called Vestas. Denmark for ca. 50% runs on renewable electricity… from wind.

    That percentage of 50% will increase over the coming years to 100%.

    And you know what? Vestas will continue to make fine wind turbines after that glorious date. Honest!

  14. dave thompson on Tue, 16th May 2017 10:56 am 

    Here is “book” for you Cloggie with out fossil fuels, how do you make concrete, steel,mine minerals, ship goods via trucks, planes and ocean vessels. Where do all the plastic,glass,rubber,tar and asphalt come from? The list goes on. One single factory running on 50% intermittent wind energy will not produce a single item from the above list. How are wind turbines installed using wind energy?

  15. GregT on Tue, 16th May 2017 11:07 am 

    “please give me a pointer to a prominent book or article that makes the point that renewable energy can’t work without fossil fuel.”

    Please provide evidence of one alt energy system that did not require any inputs from fossil fuels in it’s design, resource extraction and refinement, manufacturing, distribution, and maintenance. Please provide evidence of one electric grid that also did not require any inputs from fossil fuels, and one example of a modern industrial society and/or economy that meets the same criteria. Until you do, all of the books or articles in the world mean nothing less than jack squat.

  16. GregT on Tue, 16th May 2017 11:18 am 

    “That percentage of 50% will increase over the coming years to 100%.”

    As mentioned numerous times before, we have had 100% hydro electric here for the better part of a century. No intermittency, no need for storage, and as renewable as it gets, but still not renewable without fossil fuels. For that matter, without fossil fuels the entire system would come crashing down following the first decent wind storm.

    There is an entire forest out there Cloggie, but impossible to see if you are focussed on the saplings in front of it.

  17. Aspera on Tue, 16th May 2017 11:34 am 

    RE: Dave “…“We were supposed to run out of oil eventually. They called it peak oil.” I stopped reading after that erroneous statement.

    Me too. Not that hard to find what “peak oil” actually means (or, Rock, “peak oil dynamics”). If a writer is too lazy to look-it-up, then I get busy with other things (i.e., plant a garden, soon.)

  18. GregT on Tue, 16th May 2017 11:48 am 

    “Please provide evidence of one alt energy system that did not require any inputs from fossil fuels in it’s design, resource extraction and refinement, manufacturing, distribution, and maintenance.”

    Still no answer Cloggie? Here, let me give you some assistance.

    http://newdawnblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/earth-land_1296194c.jpg

  19. Cloggie on Tue, 16th May 2017 12:05 pm 

    Here is “book” for you Cloggie with out fossil fuels, how do you make concrete, steel,mine minerals, ship goods via trucks, planes and ocean vessels.

    You can convert renewable electricity in all sorts of fuels, like ammonia or hydrogen and many others.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/04/08/ammonia-as-storage-medium/

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/04/23/cost-hydrogen-from-renewable-energy/

    If you can drive normal cars on batteries, you can do that as well with any 4-x-wheel vehicle. Heavier vehicles can carry heavier batteries.

    I have answered the list of points you make several times before here, don’t want to do that yet again. Perhaps I make a general blog post to answer these questions once and for all.

    Please provide evidence of one alt energy system that did not require any inputs from fossil fuels in it’s design, resource extraction and refinement, manufacturing, distribution, and maintenance. Please provide evidence of one electric grid that also did not require any inputs from fossil fuels, and one example of a modern industrial society and/or economy that meets the same criteria.

    You point boils down to:

    – you can’t put a man on the moon because it has never been done before (1960)
    – it is impossible to blow up an entire city, because it has not been done before (1940)
    – You can’t build cathedrals (500)
    – show me proof that it is possible to set up an oil economy that is not an extension of wood-burning.

    It is understandable that some people don’t understand the exponential function. But it is really pushing it to pretend not to understand that 1 kWh = 1 kWh.

    Energy = energy.

    You can convert any form of energy in most other forms of energy.

    But it doesn’t make sense to try to convince somebody of something if he doesn’t want to be convinced in the first place, because he imprudently has mentally parked himself in that conviction and has romantic ideas about future post-industrial society.

    Every continent with hundreds of thousands of engineers and consultants are working hard on realizing a 100% renewable energy future and if deep in the bush a few folks live who think that it all is not going to work, so be it. Be happy with your belief.

  20. Cloggie on Tue, 16th May 2017 12:08 pm 

    Still no answer Cloggie? Here, let me give you some assistance.

    http://newdawnblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/earth-land_1296194c.jpg

    Wtf does that mean?

  21. Ghung on Tue, 16th May 2017 12:14 pm 

    Once I saw the absurd “running out of stones” analogy, I stopped reading. I always do.

  22. Cloggie on Tue, 16th May 2017 12:19 pm 

    Still no answer Cloggie? Here, let me give you some assistance.

    I will give YOU assistance that is way more relevant if we discuss energy matters:

    http://costofsolar.com/management/uploads/2013/07/solar-energy-potential.png

    An area the size of Spain covered with solar panels is enough to replace the entire global energy consumption (not just electricity, but everything).

    It is daunting task, on the other hand there are a daunting 7 billion people around to get the job done.

  23. dave thompson on Tue, 16th May 2017 12:25 pm 

    “If you can drive normal cars on batteries, you can do that as well with any 4-x-wheel vehicle. Heavier vehicles can carry heavier batteries.” Really so where in the world is the trucking industry moving to battery powered trucks?

  24. dave thompson on Tue, 16th May 2017 12:28 pm 

    “Energy = energy.
    You can convert any form of energy in most other forms of energy.” So tell me Cloggie have we overcome the second law of thermal dynamics with a new and wondrous perpetual motion machine?

  25. dave thompson on Tue, 16th May 2017 12:34 pm 

    From the link you provide concerning ammonia Cloggie did you read this part? “Even if that weren’t the case, ammonia faces serious obstacles as a consumer fuel, compared to either conventional fuels or to many other alternatives. Start with energy density, which is less than half that of gasoline by weight, and about 40% by volume. So a gallon of ammonia would only take you about 40% as far as a gallon of gas, even if you could burn pure ammonia in your engine–and from what I’ve read it still requires help from another fuel to sustain combustion. (That means two fuel tanks, which constitutes another major hurdle with consumers.)”
    http://energyoutlook.blogspot.nl/2010/10/ammonia-as-alernative-fuel.html

  26. Anonymouse on Tue, 16th May 2017 12:36 pm 

    clogged-fraud

    Neither Gregt, nor anyone else is under any obligation to show you a ‘book’ or article pointing out the obvious. Beside, the ‘show me’ shtick of yours is a red-herring and you know it. In the past, you have either simply ignored any references given, or you go off on another one of your windy, deflection filled, hopium laden diatribes. Usually the best you can offer is ‘some university students somewhere’, or ‘google’ is working on it (lol). If so-called ‘alt-energy’
    and all of its sub-components were in fact, being mined, manufactured, distributed, repaired etc etc entirely by ‘alt’ energy’, no one would need to bring the topic up at all. Greg, and everyone else would acknowledge that as a simple fact, and it wouldn’t be worthy of comment.

    However, Greg, of course, is absolutely correct when he informs you, again, for the umpteenth time, that fossil-fuels under-write the entire system, including ‘alts’. Reminding you of this over and over, is like talking to a small slow-witted child, or a child with downs syndrome even.

    Not only are there no examples of ‘alts’ being manufactured entirely, or even partly free of fossil-fuel inputs, no one is even trying to build such systems, much less at the level of society or civilization. Its fossil-fuels all the way down moron, whether you like it not. Like, greg reminds you (again) he lives in a area that is 100% ‘alt’ energy powered, and has been for most a century, yet the entire province, larger and wealthier than many countries, was built and runs on, guess what retard?, yea fossil-fuels. If anyone could have built an clogged-tardish facsimile of an alt-only shangri-la, it would be BC. (Cept they didn’t and arent even remotely interested in doing anything like that, even now).

    The burden of proof is on you clogged-toilet, not Greg or anyone else for pointing out the obvious. May as well ask him to ‘prove’ to you the Earth isnt flat.

  27. Davy on Tue, 16th May 2017 1:21 pm 

    This is a wonderful example of a techno optimistic story expounding technical substitution yielding win-win solutions. We have “The economists” that reckon that transport will become a service” and that service will be EV and autonomous. This is real convenient too because this particular story gleefully says all this will happen with the phase out of oil and the internal combustion engine and directly into the techno EV age. That point is important for fake green techno optimist because it kills two birds with one stone. We get the techno transition of energy and transport that will be the answer to climate change problems. Do you detect a too good to be true narrative. Do you feel and imagine the happy ending? Did you sense we got that get out of jail free card with climate change?

    I can speculate too. I agree demand destruction is coming but not this friendly fake green type. There will be a transition and substitution but not this techno optimistic type. Economic decline from systematic decay of key drivers of affluence is in the works. Stagflation and social unrest are combing with planetary decline of climate and ecosystems. Resource limits are showing up and oil is part of this. These limits are both quantitative and qualitative or IOW economic based decline. Globalism is growth based and confidence driven. The financial system must have stability and reasonable return on investment to cement investment and productivity. This confidence is dangerously deteriorating and globalism is stalling. Markets are at all time highs but without the real data to justify it. It is called bubbles and a Ponzi arrangement. There is no alternative to globalism anymore. We have evolved out of the old national economic structures connected loosely in a globalism “lite” of previous centuries.

    The transition that is coming is towards salvage of what we have currently combining with a substitution of technologies from previous centuries that have been unwisely discarded. Those old ways that can be brought back because many are gone from knowledge and the infrastructure loss. We are going to use what we have that still works and bring back what we can from an earlier time that was characterized by less complexity. Yea, transport will become a service but one that is not catering to discretionary wants. This service will be for vital needs and crisis management in a time of turmoil and decline. My speculation is also optimistic because things might just catastrophically fail. We don’t know because there is no references for our human overshoot experiment.

    This will be accompanied by increasing poverty and failing safety nets. These failing safety nets will be more than the normal so called “welfare”. It is going to be pensions and retirements also. Old people are going to have to work until they die and they will die younger. As affluence gives way so will social stability and food production. Food production is very economically temperamental. We need only look to the great depression as crops rotted for lack of markets. Our distribution and financial networks will shrink lowering food deliveries. Lower food production is directly related to a die down. Food = population.

    Yea, oil is going to decline from demand driven issues but it won’t be technological destructive change of an energy transition. It will be less affluence needing less oil and less investment in oil production producing less oil. This process will likely leave a glut of fossil fuel sources and infrastructure that will be turned to because it is available and cheap. When Rome was imploding they cannibalized great buildings to build walls to keep the savages out. We are not going to build out a fancy expensive renewable energy age from a civilization in economic decline. Once economic decline sets in fully it will unravel globalism into something that is less active and productive. We will not have the ability to produce as we do now. The new age of the techno optimist is all about new construction that is expensive development. All that must be paid for and that is where their projections insert the constant of a growing economy. It is that simple techno’s think the money will be there. It will be demand destruction alright but not the happy kind.

  28. Cloggie on Tue, 16th May 2017 1:36 pm 

    Really so where in the world is the trucking industry moving to battery powered trucks?

    http://www.transport-online.nl/site/40834/heineken-neemt-grootste-elektrische-vrachtwagen-van-europa-in-gebruik/

    So tell me Cloggie have we overcome the second law of thermal dynamics with a new and wondrous perpetual motion machine?

    Do you agree that it is possible to convert electricity in H2 or NH3? That’s namely the most relevant in this discussion. Oh and it is thermodynamics, not thermal dynamics. Furthermore I begin to suspect that you don’t understand the difference between energy conversion, which always comes with losses and a “perpetuum mobile”.

    ammonia faces serious obstacles as a consumer fuel, compared to either conventional fuels or to many other alternatives. Start with energy density, which is less than half that of gasoline by weight, and about 40% by volume.

    Energy density maybe an issue for transport, where you have to transport your own fuel. But if you want to build power stations to even out intermittent solar and wind, this is not an issue. Just build an extra tank next to your power station. It is interesting that you can use your conventional natural gas power station with ammonia, with little conversion effort. No need to write off your old power station.

  29. Cloggie on Tue, 16th May 2017 1:41 pm 

    clogged-fraud

    You seriously expect me to read, let alone answer your post?

  30. Cloggie on Tue, 16th May 2017 1:52 pm 

    As of today Heineken has 8 electric trucks:

    https://www.simonloos.nl/uitbreiding_elektrische_trucks/

    9 ton each, 100% electric.

    In 2020 every Heineken truck will be electric.

    Range 120 km, which is sufficient for city distribution.

    Heineken cooperates with the Amsterdam municipality as well as the EU program…

    http://frevue.eu/

    …to convert all short range truck traffic to electric.

  31. GregT on Tue, 16th May 2017 2:12 pm 

    “Wtf does that mean?”

    Not only is the Earth an “energy system” that does not require human beings to burn fossil fuels, it is the only system that we ever needed, and the only one that we will not survive without. The human predicament reaches far beyond just energy production, and human energy production is the root cause of the human predicament. Trying to solve that predicament with more of the same that caused it in the first place, is not exactly intelligent.

  32. rockman on Tue, 16th May 2017 2:19 pm 

    Davy – How many plants producing renewable energy equipment can be run solely by renewable energy sources? Depends on the consumption by those plants. But consider this: Texas electricity consumption by industrial activity: 200 million MWh (50% of total state consumption). Texas wind power generation (not capacity): 48 million MWh (12% of total consumption). Granted this is just an accounting analysis but current wind power can provide about 25% of all industrial electricity demand. Which, from strictly a theoretical allocation, could supply numerous alt energy equipment making plants.

    Of course that doesn’t address Tue intermittency issue. OTOH Texas coal/NG electricity generation is intermittent: both are cut back when the wind is blowing hard. And recently during an especially breezy period wind provided 45% of the electricity of the largest consuming state.

    So maybe we’ll never be able to run any industrial activity solely on alt energy 100% of the time. OTOH the average industrial electricity rate in Texas is low thanks to NG, coal AND wind power: 5.5¢/kWh. Just one of the reasons economic activity (and jobs/population) continues to increase in Texas compared to stagnation and even regression in many states.

    Alt energy may never supply more the a minority of electricity in Texas. And then only intermittently (until commercial grid storage becomes economic). But for every Btu of fossil fuel it replaces allows us to sell it to someone else in the country…or world.

  33. _______________________________________ on Tue, 16th May 2017 2:29 pm 

    Heineken is even worse than Budweiser. Stick to weed you bunch of Dutch faggots. Keep speculating on world energy. You should be billionaires by now.

  34. rockman on Tue, 16th May 2017 2:36 pm 

    Certainly the current utilization of commercial electric trucks is nothing to get very excited about. But I don’t recall any replacement tech that didn’t take decades to grow to a significant percentage of the market. There were still millions of folks using horse drawn carts long after Henry started rolling those Model T’s off the assembly line. LOL.

    “BYD’s California truck and bus facility isn’t much to look at – an elderly concrete tilt-up in a mostly still unbuilt industrial center in Lancaster, a high-desert community about 70 miles north of downtown Los Angeles.

    But things are changing for the electric vehicle maker, a unit of China’s giant BYD Co. BYD has started a factory expansion on a 200,000-square-foot lot in front of the former recreational vehicle assembly plant the company acquired in 2013 as part of a deal to sell electric buses in the U.S. Plans call for the workforce, now about 530 people, to triple by 2020, with most of the jobs located at the Lancaster facilities.

    For now, much of BYD’s growth comes from the electric bus operations. It just inked a deal to supply 20 electric shuttle buses to the University of California, Irvine, and has sold about 300 buses in the U.S. since 2013. But medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks make up an ever-increasing part of BYD’s commercial vehicle business in the U.S., said Andy Swanton, vice president of the BYD Truck division. In the U.S., the truck and BYD Coach and Bus operations are subsidiaries of BYD Motors. In just two years, BYD Truck has sold about 150 electric trucks to U.S. customers, he said.

    BYD has taken direct aim at the port and rail yard business with a new Class 8 tractor, but its electric truck portfolio is much broader than that. The company presently offers medium-duty step vans, stake-bed, box and refrigerated trucks using BYD’s trucks in the Class 5 through 7 weight segments. It offers a Class 6 trash collection truck and Class 8 tractors designed for the short-haul goods movement industry, principally in ports and other freight-handling facilities. Its step vans have been developed as a pilot project with delivery giant UPS, opening up a significant potential marketplace.”

  35. rockman on Tue, 16th May 2017 2:41 pm 

    “Heineken is even worse than Budweiser.” To each his own: If they don’t have our Texas Shiner Bock I’ll order a Heineken.

    A lot better then the Pearl Lite I drank when I was a poor undergrad in New Orleans: 65¢ per 6pack. LOL.

  36. Hamster on Tue, 16th May 2017 4:40 pm 

    I barely skimmed the article, because anything that begins “the stone age didn’t end because they ran out of stones…” is dufuss to start.
    Actually, the Stone Age folks were running out of high grade flint and chert at the end. There is evidence of long trade networks and deep digging in chalk beds for weapons grade “stones”. Mesolithic tools are made from tiny chips painstakingly set in bone or wood handles. As for the Bronze Age, see Eric Cline, “1177 BC”, book or awesome youtube lecture for a description about how a complex interconnected society unraveled and went dark. There was still tin in Afghanistan and copper in in Cyprus when the trade networks failed and nearly a dozen great civilizations collapsed, but it was several hundred years before anyone could do anything about it. We are still in the Iron Age, we just don’t look up from our glowing screens often enough to notice how much steel permeates our civilization.

  37. gargasson on Tue, 16th May 2017 4:46 pm 

    Cloggie@
    With every comment on energy I have to go back to the fundamental (Carnot) energy conservation law and all energies are dependent on oil for their manufacture, installation and maintenance (raw materials, transport, lubrication … ..)
    A 5 MW eolica turbine is based on 1000 tons of reinforced concrete, a 250 t steel column, a 50 t propeller made of fiberglass and carbon embedded in resin, a gearbox for Multiply the speed of rotation with 1000 liters of oil sinthétique to change between 1 year and 3 years. 600 kg of insulated copper wire and steel alloy with neodymium for the alternator. Multiply that by some hundreds of thousands, not need oil? Not to mention the crane for the installation!
    It is also valid for a barragem, turbos alternators of thermal power stations. Even a nuclear power plant has a minimun of oil need for emergency generators, otherwise they have to be stopped, remember fukushima !!!

  38. Hello on Tue, 16th May 2017 5:04 pm 

    Oil is not needed as electricity can be converted into synthetic fuels for special applications.

    However it is not clear if solar/wind provides sufficient energy to allow conversion with enough margin and on top of that, sustain itself.

    It is also not clear if solar/wind is only possible with a large enough ‘consumer’ economy already in place, benefiting from economy of scale for its cheap deployment.

  39. Cloggie on Tue, 16th May 2017 5:04 pm 

    With every comment on energy I have to go back to the fundamental (Carnot) energy conservation law and all energies are dependent on oil for their manufacture, installation and maintenance (raw materials, transport, lubrication … ..)

    Before we had oil, we had only had coal to manufacture everything. Everything was an extension of coal.lol

    Yet somehow we managed to get away from coal, or rather we could have an advanced economy totally based of oil with zero coal. Coal is still around for economic reasons but not for technological reasons.

    Get the point?

    Before we had coal, we only had wood to manufacture things. Somehow we managed to get rid of wood and switched to coal. And nobody whined about “coal being an extension of wood”.

    Now how difficult can it be to imagine that a similar transition will be possible with alt-energy? There is no form of energy more convenient than electricity! You can run cars and trains on it, far cleaner, more silent and requiring far less maintenance than fossil fuel based vehicles.

    wood > coal > oil > renewable > fusion

    raw materials, transport, lubrication

    Transport, raw materials… have a look at this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-QZoEBXzSk

    Heineken meanwhile has 8 electric trucks. Now if you can power a Prius and a truck with batteries, you don’t need the analytical skills of your monsieur Descartes to figure out that any vehicle on wheels can power itself, as heavier vehicles can carry with them proportionally heavier batteries.

    C’est tres simple, n’est-ce pas?

    Multiply that by some hundreds of thousands, not need oil? Not to mention the crane for the installation!

    No you don’t as you can convert your alt-energy electricity into a chemical fuel first, to power these specialized heavy equipment.

  40. Cloggie on Tue, 16th May 2017 5:16 pm 

    Heineken, like so many companies with enough money, want a green image, so they generate some of their own electricity with PV:

    Holland:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEKwA3MZa6k

    UK:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJFU8hlaNWU

    Italy:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MywLWP-FxQg

    High end beer “Wieckse Witte” same story:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHy1_4vtlL4

    Nobody wants to be the sucker holding the fossil bag.

  41. Anonymouse on Tue, 16th May 2017 5:26 pm 

    Well, that is what you do best clogg-fraud, ignore in-convenient facts. Its the one thing you are actually good at, for what it is worth(not a lot).

    It is a feature with you, not a bug.

  42. Cloggie on Tue, 16th May 2017 5:35 pm 

    Well, that is what you do best clogg-fraud

    You think you can insult and nevertheless expect an answer? You? One giant sneer?

    Try to suppress the jungle in yourself for two minutes and maybe you get my attention. Just maybe.

  43. Davy on Tue, 16th May 2017 6:28 pm 

    “Oil is not needed as electricity can be converted into synthetic fuels for special applications.” Yea but at scale? I don’t think so.

  44. Davy on Tue, 16th May 2017 6:32 pm 

    “wood > coal > oil > renewable > fusion”

    More like:

    wood > coal > oil > renewable > wood

  45. dave thompson on Tue, 16th May 2017 7:31 pm 

    8 whole Heineken beer trucks on the road how impressive. Now tell me Cloggie where did the grain and other ingredients come from to make the beer? Heavy battery powered trucks out in the farm fields? Plowing, fertilizing, weeding and pest control all with the magic of alt energy power heavy battery powered equipment? When the grain and other ingredients were delivered to the brewery by 8 of the electric beer trucks how was the beer brewed to temp? When they went to bottle the beer where did the bottles come from? Was is at the electric alt energy beer bottle factory? Cloggie, dream on.

  46. newfie on Tue, 16th May 2017 7:56 pm 

    Baloney. Oil consumption is still rising.

  47. GregT on Tue, 16th May 2017 8:39 pm 

    “Baloney. Oil consumption is still rising.”

    And all of that other alt-energy stuff is merely adding to our global energy mix. It isn’t replacing anything.

  48. rockman on Tue, 16th May 2017 9:01 pm 

    gar – “Multiply that by some hundreds of thousands, not need oil?”. Did I miss someone saying it wouldn’t require some hydrocarbon input to build out alt energy? And as thousand upon thousand of new alt energy systems are built wouldn’t that reduced the consumption rate of petroleum thus leaving more petroleum available for more alt development?

    IOW isn’t that the primary reason the develop alternative energy sources: to preserve what petroleum resources we have left?

    As far as the resource utilization for building wind and solar farms how much f*cking resources do you think it took to build the 84,000,000 vehicles sold in 2016? And how much oil was required to keep the other 1,200,000,000 vehicles rolling in 2016?

    Of course much more fossil fuel resources were used to keep the rest of the global economy humming along. The would is producing a a near record amount of oil then it has in the entire history of mankind. Oil that is fueling a significant portion of the global economy. So bizarre to hear folks pissing and moaning about the rather insignificant amount of energy used to build out the alts compared to how much energy is being used to run the rest of the global economy.

    If someone wants to pull some resource estimate for building out the alts out of their ass that’s OK. But a stand alone number is pointless: compare it to the amount of resources used for the other major components of the global economy. With that data we can discuss prioritizing how we use our remaining resources.

  49. JuanP on Tue, 16th May 2017 9:36 pm 

    As long as we keep consuming energy we will keep generating waste heat. There is no way to avoid it. We will keep destroying the biosphere until we cease to exist as a species. We are extremely destructive animals! More energy will only allow us to destroy the biosphere faster. People who think that we can solve our “problems” with more energy consumption do not comprehend the nature of the predicament we face. We are the problem, not oil or coal. Today we wreaked more havoc on this planet than ever before but tomorrow we will do even better! LOL!

  50. makati1 on Tue, 16th May 2017 11:00 pm 

    There are now over 7,400,000,000 of us heat producers. We generate heat by just living. Our bodies are always about 98.6F. We consume energy/calories that also produced heat in their growth, death and consumption. Our body waste generates heat as it decomposes. Then, when we die, we generate heat as our bodies rot. Mother Nature could handle this load as long as it was the only heat load. But, in the last 200 years we have been adding a few hundred million years of the suns stored heat into the mix. We are not only doing that, but we keep adding blankets of gases over the radiator/atmosphere to keep the heat in. Insanity.

    All I can say is, we deserve what is coming and we are getting it as the pot/earth slowly heats past our tolerance level.

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