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Oil supply shock, food shortages, and potential starvation in Sweden?

Oil supply shock, food shortages, and potential starvation in Sweden? thumbnail

In 2013 the Swedish Institute of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering (JTI) released a report about potential impacts on the country’s food supply from sudden oil import shocks. JTI looked at three different scenarios, where oil imports would be redistricted (-25%, -50%, -75%) for a period of 3-5 years. Not enough time to make a transition to some other fuel.

In the worst case scenario, where 75% of oil imports disappear, the authors stated that the diesel price could increase to some SEK 160/litre, and we would likely experience widespread starvation! Food supplies, in stores and warehouses, would only last for 10-12 days. Swedes don’t even know that the government has said that it’s up to the citizens themself to provide for their own food needs in a crisis situation. Most people seem to believe we still live in the 1970s when Sweden was a socialist country, not any more, not since the neoliberals came into office and started dismantling healthcare, defence, education etc. There is no emergency preparedness!

 

Without fossil fuels (oil and gas) we wouldn’t be able to produce enough food in Sweden. This is partly due to our high food imports (50%)​, large-scale mechanisation of farms, loss of small-scale farmers and high costs (taxes) on farming. Most farm machinery runs on diesel while oil is used for heating and transportation. Areas like Stockholm and parts of Norrland are especially dependent on food imports. For example, the Stockholm region only produces some 5% of the milk consumed and less than 10% of the meat.

 

Today there are no food or fuel reserves, instead the entire country is totally dependent on “just-in-time” supplies. Again, in the worst case scenario, there will be no cooking oil, 75% less fruits and berries, 67-70% less grains, 40% less milk, and 64% less pigs, chickens and eggs. The only thing increasing is sheep and cow meat since a lot of land only will be used for grazing. Grazing animals get their food from sunlight (grass) and contribute with manure.

 

Based on SPBI data

Swedes can be kept over the starvation line if only 25% of oil imports disappear, but we will experience food shortages and risk of starvation if a larger oil shock occurs (50-75%). Looking at the export-import data some commentators have estimated that 90% of all oil imports will be gone by 2030. And this is probably a conservative estimate since it doesn’t account for sudden shocks due to an economic crisis, conflict, and so on.

 

In a recent opinion poll (2013) two out of every three (63%) Swedes stated that they wouldn’t be able to handle a shorter crisis. People in Gotland, Öland (islands) and Småland were most worried about a future crisis (49% think they will experience a crisis). Most people (58%) can only manage for about one week but it’s likely that the respondents underestimate how much resources are actually required for everyday life. For example, water (3 litres/day) and heating during the winter.

 

Sweden’s food supply is in any case extremely vulnerable to a shortage in oil imports, and Swedes are not prepared despite a lacking government. Our dear politicians have absolutely no plan on changing this, instead they claim “we need to stay competitive” totally missing the point that growth is over! (0.3% per capita GDP growth the last decade). The situation is not made better by half of all our oil imports now coming from Russia that we are engaging in trade wars with (sanctions etc).

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82 Comments on "Oil supply shock, food shortages, and potential starvation in Sweden?"

  1. GregT on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 3:33 pm 

    “There are several farmers around here that uses entirely biological methods making beef and vegetables.”

    When those several farmers ramp up production enough to feed everyone, without oil, only then will Sweden have enough food to eat post peak fossil fuels. Of course even if they could, that would not take into consideration societal decay. The report above should not be taken lightly claman. It is serious, and very realistic.

  2. claman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 3:33 pm 

    GregT: But it is exactky the timeline that caught my attention. I found it unnescesarily alarmist.
    Apart from that we agree that a lot of farming around the world could go down very quickly, and with dire consequences.

  3. apneaman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 3:38 pm 

    claman, I have dwelled in the forests of British Columbia and Alberta, mostly killing food to eat. Lots of firewood experience (groan) too. I have very limited experience with growing food. Best of luck with your endeavors. My reading of history shows that tribeing up after collapse offers the best chance of survival. Right and wrong won’t mean shit once law and order collapse – just survival. What are you prepared to do? You may not be able to answer that until put to the test, but the survival instinct is very powerful. More than most fatNhappy westerners know.

  4. apneaman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 3:42 pm 

    Beware the elite, but remember they are not invincible. Not if a new, pissed off tribe is formed.

    Romanian Dictator Nicolae and Elena ceausescu execution

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJ6q1a6aDbA

  5. onlooker on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 3:46 pm 

    Claman, good to know you found your oasis in the desert, I too wish you the best. Just hope the desert does not encroach upon your oasis.

  6. claman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 3:47 pm 

    Apn : the moose hunting has just started, factories and offices slowing down for a week, and with a little luck I might get a some moose meat too.

  7. claman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 3:52 pm 

    onlooker : “Just hope the desert does not encroach upon your oasis”

    The real scary thing that might happen, is a reversal of the golfstream, which would leave us completely deep frozen. Our latitude here is not far from Greenlands southernmost end.

  8. claman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 3:57 pm 

    Onlooker :But there got to be a lot of places in The US, that gives the same oppertunities. Look for forests , look for lakes and there it is. Or..?

  9. onlooker on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 4:00 pm 

    Agreed that is really scary for the entire Northern Hemisphere. Wonder if anyone here saw the movie “The Day after Tomorrow” that is scary and basically showed New York city buried by ice and snow so Sweden presumably worse. Oh well why worry over things you cannot control.

  10. onlooker on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 4:06 pm 

    I still would not mind living in Sweden right now rather then in NY

  11. claman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 4:22 pm 

    Onlooker: “The Day after Tomorrow”, has been shown a lot of times on the free channels -which by the way shows that the average scandinavian is very much aware of the climate threats.
    But we hope that an eventual future cooling would be compensated by the global warming.

  12. GregT on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 4:35 pm 

    “GregT: But it is exactky the timeline that caught my attention. I found it unnescesarily alarmist.”

    What timeline would you find to not be alarmist claman? 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050?

    A report issued by the IEA a couple of years back, said that we had ~37 years worth of known oil resources left at then present rates of consumption. So according to them, IF we kept burning oil at the rate of which we were back then, we would completely run out in or around 2050. The problem with this is threefold. One, consumption keeps growing exponentially. Two, oil exporting countries will continue to require more oil for domestic consumption, and three, production will not be able to be maintained at current levels as legacy wells go into terminal decline. So you may consider 2030 to be unnecessarily alarmist, but in all likelihood shortages will begin long before then. As you should be aware, many nations are already in dire circumstances. Countries that are large oil importers will be the first to go without, or the first to start resource wars.

    On the other side of the coin, we cannot afford to burn 2/3 left of known fossil fuel reserves, if we hope to stay below a 2 degree C global mean temperature increase. 2 degrees C gives us around a 70/30 chance of causing a catastrophic runway greenhouse event. So in reality, we only really have until around 2025 to completely stop burning all fossil fuels, if we keep burning them at present rates.

    Either way claman, I would consider our predicament to be highly alarming.

  13. onlooker on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 4:46 pm 

    Greg, Claman even forgot one more factor limiting oil availability. When oil is no longer economically or energy wise profitable to extract that will mean a drastic cut in both oil production and oil exploration. So in reality we may never end of utilizing all the known available oil.

  14. onlooker on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 4:47 pm 

    Claman, Greg, even forgot one more factor limiting oil availability. When oil is no longer economically or energy wise profitable to extract that will mean a drastic cut in both oil production and oil exploration. So in reality we may never end of utilizing all the known available oil.

  15. GregT on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 4:50 pm 

    Of course there has been a solution proposed, but not without great consequences. Reduce global fossil fuels usage gradually to 70 or 80% by 2030. Every year that we keep increasing fossil fuels consumption, also increases the percentage that we must ramp back their use in years to come, and makes the ultimate time line shorter. I believe that this was originally proposed back in or around 2005. So in reality we probably need to move the target date back accordingly. Say 2020? The other problem with this is that 2030 would not have been the end-all be-all. We would need to completely end all fossil fuels usage before 2050 anyways. Or within 35 years. It shouldn’t be too difficult to understand where this is all heading…….

  16. claman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 4:56 pm 

    GregT, “What timeline would you find to not be alarmist claman? 2035, 2040, 2045, 2050.”

    2035 works well with me.
    By 2035 i believe we will have a big global food crisis. NOT because of an oil crisis though, but for a multitude of other reasons: Drought, global warming, empty aquafers, crop deseases, pollution, social unrest and of course tooo many mouths to feed.

    Unlike a lot of you others. it is hard for me to believe that we run out of oil by 2035. By all means it will come, but just not that soon.

  17. GregT on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 4:59 pm 

    Yes onlooker,

    Very good point, and well worth posting twice! 🙂

  18. GregT on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 5:04 pm 

    claman,

    I don’t believe that we will ever run out of oil. I believe that we will keep burning fossil fuels until we cause our own extinction. We have more than enough oil, coal, and natural gas to fry our planet beyond it’s ability to support life as we know it.

  19. claman on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 5:12 pm 

    I suppose we basically agree then.

    It is local midnight here. Sleep tight.

  20. GregT on Fri, 16th Oct 2015 5:15 pm 

    Won’t be sleeping time for another 8 hours here claman. Have a good sleep. 🙂

  21. claman on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 2:37 pm 

    My theory that the GOP via SJMF is behind this smear campaign against sweden is beginning to sound credible. Read paul Krugmans story about a GOP campaign against denmark.

    “Paul Krugman Stands Up for Sanders, Dismantles Right-Wing Lies About Denmark’s Economic Success Story
    It’s refreshing that presidential candidates are discussing what we might learn from other countries.”

    http://www.alternet.org/economy/paul-krugman-dismantles-right-wing-lies-about-denmarks-economic-success-story

    The SJMF’s shady business policy (sjmf is the author of the mentioned smear campaign):

    “SJMF is a network that provides opportunities to focus, together with other companies, on areas where the individual company can find it difficult to operate”
    “Commissioned research is conducted in complete secrecy”

  22. GregT on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 3:11 pm 

    “(JTI) released a report about potential impacts on the country’s food supply from sudden oil import shocks. JTI looked at three different scenarios, where oil imports would be redistricted (-25%, -50%, -75%) for a period of 3-5 years.”

    What is it about this that you think is a “smear campaign”? I would consider it more to be purely common sense. Sweden isn’t alone here claman. Every country in the world that relies on imported oil is in the same boat. Am I missing something here? Because I really do not understand what you are talking about.

  23. claman on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 4:00 pm 

    Yes Greg, but it’s the timing and the obvious factual faults. If you claim that sweden is on the brink of starvation and totally forget that they are selfsuppliying with protein and fat, and that they are 100 percent self suppliyng with their main staple carbonhydrate (potatoes), then there is something fishy going on somewhere.
    They have unlimited amounts of biofuel, timber and iron ore. Even cobber in small amounts. And lets not forget the maybe most important resource in the world to day: unlimited access to high quality water.
    It’s not the usual picture of a country an the brink of collapse.

    The timing is about paul krugmans artikel about the GOP campaign against denmark (do read it).
    So clearly i do not stand alone when i’m suspecting a GOP campaign agaist the scandinavian countries.

  24. claman on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 4:04 pm 

    Allright, if sweden together with all other countries should loose their oilsupply, that would hurt, but starvation is far away

  25. claman on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 4:15 pm 

    My memory is not the best and it’s getting late, but 200 miles from the swedish border, you will find the norwegian “sverdrup oilfield” which is one of the worlds largest new unexploided oilfields. The norwegian don’t even care to open it because there is no market for it. Please Greg, where is the looming disaster for sweden.

  26. GregT on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 4:31 pm 

    Does Sweden produce all of her own food? Is this food produced manually, or does she rely on modern industrial agriculture? Does Sweden have a large stockpile of food, say enough to get through the winter months? Or does Sweden rely on a JIT delivery system like most other countries?

    I understand that Sweden is 100% reliable on oil imports, correct? If this is the case, it seems really dumb to me to be attacking the economy of the country that supplies over half of her oil.

    Biting the hand that feeds you is never a smart thing to do. IMO.

  27. GregT on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 4:38 pm 

    Sorry, I just re-read the article and it answered my questions above. Sweden appears headed for a disaster of epic proportions. It’s only a matter of time. I’d be moving to a rural area and learning to grow my own food pronto.

  28. claman on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 5:04 pm 

    greg, I just told you that sweden is selfsuppliyng with potatoes,which is our main staple food. Potatoes are harvested in the fall, and because of that we have huge stocks of potatoes to last untill next summer, when the next harvest is at hand.

    ” Is this food produced manually, or does she rely on modern industrial agriculture”.

    Most of the swedish harvest is done by elves, while we use a lot of trolls instead of tractors. Pollination is mostly done by bees that people keep in their bonnet. So you see it’s a hundred percent biological sustainable business.

  29. GregT on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 6:01 pm 

    Well then claman, Sweden has nothing to worry about until there is a shortage of elves and trolls. You guys are lucky, unlike us folks here in Canada. We rely on oil for food production, transportation, and modern industrial society in general. Do you guys have any extra elves or trolls that you’d be able to export? We could sure use some here.

  30. claman on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 6:11 pm 

    I would advise the canadians to start develloping diesel engines that run on canola oil, which is a relatively uncomplicated and cheap crop to grow. The oil doesn’t take much processing to be ready to use, so that could be the solution, when oil becomes a scarce commodity.

  31. claman on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 6:50 pm 

    greg, here is a little reading about canola diesel.
    http://www.meristem.com/agtech/ag04_04.html
    I ran my old mercedes on canola diesel in the early 90’es, but at that time there was some issues with sealings and hoses, so we stopped using it. But that is merely solvable technical problems.
    sleep tight

  32. GregT on Mon, 19th Oct 2015 6:59 pm 

    Canada is a major exporter of Rapeseed claman. Last year we grew over 20 million tonnes. We also run tractors on biodiesel. That isn’t going to stop millions of people from going hungry when oil imports becomes problematic. Something that could easily occur at any time. Not 20 years from now.

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