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Page added on May 1, 2018

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Oil Rises as ‘Alarm Bells’ Sound Over Unraveling Iran Nuke Deal

Consumption

Crude rose after Israeli intelligence about Iranian nuclear ambitions heightened concern an international accord may unravel.

Futures in New York rose 0.7 percent on Monday to settle just pennies shy of a three-year high. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran had a secret plan to build nuclear weapons. The announcement comes less than two weeks before U.S. President Donald Trump decides whether to scrap the Iranian nuclear deal and reimpose sanctions against OPEC’s third-biggest oil producer.

Brent crude, the international benchmark traded in London, closed at a level not see since late 2014.

“The geopolitical risk temperature is about to move a little higher here,” said Bart Melek, head of global commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto. “This is, at least in my mind, raising some alarm bells.”

Israel shared with the U.S. documents on a secret Iranian nuclear-weapons program and the U.S. has verified their authenticity, according to a person familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Netanyahu allegations were lies, according to state-run FARS. Trump declined to say what he’ll do on the Iran deal.

Crude rallied 5.6 percent this month amid heightened geopolitical tensions and Trump’s indications he may scrap the 2015 nuclear deal that eased sanctions against Iran in exchange for a halt to nuclear weapons research. At the same time, OPEC-led production cuts have continued to tighten global markets, despite record-setting U.S. crude output. In Texas, oil production climbed to an all-time high in February, the federal government said.

West Texas Intermediate crude for June delivery climbed 47 cents to settle at $68.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Total volume traded was about 15 percent above the 100-day average.

A measure of oil market volatility climbed to the highest level in two weeks.

Brent crude for June settlement, which expires Monday, advanced 53 cents to end the session at $75.17 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark crude traded at a $6.60 premium to June WTI. The more-active July contract closed rose 90 cents to close at $74.69.

Prior to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s disclosure of the Iranian filed, French President Emmanuel Macron made a joint announcement with the office of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in which the two leaders would work together on preserving the 2015 deal.

“They want to try and work out a deal that could be independent of any kind of Trump walk-away,” said Bob Yawger, director of futures at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. “That gives some hope to the market here that if you take the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal, you may still have some kind of scrappy deal left on the sideline.”

Oil-market news:

Gasoline futures rose 0.1 percent to settle at $2.1292 a gallon on Monday, the highest since August. U.S. Oil Fund call options were the most active in U.S. trading, with call volume outpacing put volume by about 4 to 1, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. U.S. crude stockpiles probably increased by 1.25 million barrels, according to the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Crude stockpiles at the biggest U.S. storage complex rose by an estimated 1 million barrels last week, according to a forecast compiled by Bloomberg.

RIGZONE



17 Comments on "Oil Rises as ‘Alarm Bells’ Sound Over Unraveling Iran Nuke Deal"

  1. dave thompson on Tue, 1st May 2018 7:58 pm 

    Lets all be very very scared the boogie man is out to get us.

  2. Damien on Tue, 1st May 2018 8:03 pm 

    The progeny of Adam and Eve ruin everything they touch.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Dmtkxm9yQY

  3. Anonymouse1 on Wed, 2nd May 2018 1:31 am 

    I’m not in the least bit about the supposed unravelling of a deal, which in reality, is nothing more than a gross violation of Iran’s sovereignty. This entire ‘deal’ is nothing more than an endless orchestrated campaign of harassment and intimidation by the uSraeli rogue state.

    Since Iran threatens no one, and has broken no ‘law’ worth adhering to, I fail to see why anyone on Earth should have to pay 1cent more for oil over such a flimsy charade as the one the Jewnited states has subjected Iran to over this non-issue for so many years.

    Of course, the retards @ RigPorn are free to disagree, as usual.

  4. deadly on Wed, 2nd May 2018 3:15 am 

    It’s just a ride.

    Another day, another country in the Middle East to blame for something, anything. Iran happens to be the chosen country for the next conflict. Big deal.

    There is nothing you can do to stop what is happening and if the Middle East is going to explode once again and more fighting occurs, it is not going to be a big surprise.

    They’re all nuts, out of their minds, no big surprise there either, none. Judas Goats everywhere you look over there.

    That’s the way it goes moving west. Nothing is going to change, at all.

    If the price of oil goes to 99, more money will be made for the right people, so there really should be nothing to worry about, the money will be in the right hands.

    Not yours.

    How I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb.

  5. Antius on Wed, 2nd May 2018 7:33 am 

    The Greeks are charging full speed into their own destruction.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-01/flooding-voter-rolls-greece

    In the final calculation, in spite of many other contributing factors, historians will conclude that the western nations fell due to the sickness in the minds of their politicians. How can such treason fail to provoke violent revolution?

  6. Antius on Wed, 2nd May 2018 7:47 am 

    The leftists in Greece are about to do what 4 centuries of Turkish rule failed to accomplish. They are about to destroy the Greek nation!

    “A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear.” – Cicero, 42 BC.

  7. Theedrich on Thu, 3rd May 2018 3:31 am 

    The United States is a Demonic dictatorship.  Revanchism motivates the Left.  Their new tactic is to reverse electoral results by bankrupting workers for an opposition party (Republicans) and by clandestinely and criminally threatening them and their familys with death.

    There is no longer even any pretense at democracy.  The regimes of Russia and China are now merely models to be surpassed.  The masses are kept in darkness with lies while globalizing overlords behind the figurehead politicians in Washington lurch for global dominance by threatening the rest of the world with nuclear annihilation;  by using insidious viruses to hack into and destroy the computer networks of other countries;  by covertly engaging in political assassinations elsewhere and false-flag attacks or “red lines” (American interests, you know) to excuse “counterattacks” against preferred prey;  and by overtly waging wars everywhere.

    We do not know how long this planetary criminality is going to last.  According to Southfront speaking of the new generation of weapons being developed by both Russia and the U.S., “…the reaction time has shrunk, due to hypersonic delivery vehicles, from 20-30 minutes to a far shorter interval.  Which increases the likelihood of launching retaliatory strikes before the nuclear attack warnings are confirmed.”

    But not to worry.  Southfront tells us that “we will soon see both sides behind the negotiating table, which means the strategic balance will be preserved and the world will be made safer.”

    Whatever that curious opinion is worth, given the rapid corruption of the U.S. government by such mega-insects as Sörös and its threat to the world, we may soon experience the obliteration of the death machine called the United States of America.

  8. makati1 on Thu, 3rd May 2018 4:19 am 

    Theedrich, I would nit be surprised if Russia decides enough is enough and takes out the Us some 3AM. Sub launched missiles are minutes from the coasts. They will not come over the North Pole and the antique “dew Line” They will come from a few hundred miles off the shores. Hyper-sonic means bright flashes before the Us knows it is being attacked. We shall see.

  9. Davy on Thu, 3rd May 2018 5:00 am 

    “Theedrich, I would nit be surprised if Russia decides enough is enough and takes out the Us some 3AM.”
    The board’s great military mind explains that NUK war must happen in the dark. Notice 3am is the key hour. What a numb nut old man. 3rd world you are a sick war lusting crazy old man. No wonder you live in a shithole little village in the P’s. They would have you in a mental facility if you were in the States.

  10. Go Speed Racer on Thu, 3rd May 2018 6:11 am 

    It’s the Beach Boys Song!
    Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran
    Bomb Bomb Bomb, Bomb Bomb Iran

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iKuMVqht4U

    REPEAT
    PUT A QUARTER IN THE JUKEBOX
    HIT F-16
    WAIT FOR THE NEEDLE TO HIT THE RECORD
    AND ENJOY !!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iKuMVqht4U

  11. MASTERMIND on Thu, 3rd May 2018 6:13 am 

    Theedrich

    Why are you so scared of an 89 year old man (Soros)..He must be so flattered that all of the paranoids on the right blame him for pulling all the strings of the world. He just donated his entire life fortune to the open society last year. A charity that fights for democracy and womans rights world wide. What an evil guy. I think its because he looks evil because he has large bags under his eyes. The paranoid right always needs a boogie man. lol

  12. Antius on Thu, 3rd May 2018 6:15 am 

    “According to Southfront speaking of the new generation of weapons being developed by both Russia and the U.S., “…the reaction time has shrunk, due to hypersonic delivery vehicles, from 20-30 minutes to a far shorter interval.”

    The 1960s generation ICBMs were already hypersonic weapons. After all, they were capable of reaching orbital velocities if need be, which is 17,500mph = Mach 24.

    What the Russians are claiming to have developed is an air-breathing, nuclear powered hypersonic engine. I would treat these claims with scepticism. The mechanical and thermal stresses acting on the heat transfer surfaces of the engine at these speeds will be enormous. It is very difficult to develop any design that stands up to those stresses whilst maintaining necessary heat transfer rates into the air stream. And at the required temperatures, oxidation would be another severe problem.

    A supersonic nuclear cruise missile is technically achievable. This would be no faster than an ICBM and would have questionable tactical advantage against large extended targets like cities. But carrying smaller warheads and targeting key infrastructure like missile silos and naval ships, it could be a valuable addition to Russian military capabilities in a more limited conflict.

  13. makati1 on Thu, 3rd May 2018 6:30 am 

    Antius, Then you better tell the Us military generals that they are lying when they say Russia has the edge, and that China can kill their carriers ~2,000 miles from China. The Us is antique, never t catch up.

    Questionable advantage? Why? If the new missile leaves the Russian sub somewhere 100 miles off shore and hits it’s target in a few minutes while the old ICBMs buried in the mid-west advertise they are coming while taking ~30 minutes to go from Kansas to Moscow over the pole. How is that questionable. That is, assuming the ICBMs still work. Not guaranteed in the collapsing Us. False hope, America. You live in a very corrupt country with an incompetent military and no real protection.

  14. Antius on Thu, 3rd May 2018 6:59 am 

    “Antius, Then you better tell the Us military generals that they are lying when they say Russia has the edge, and that China can kill their carriers ~2,000 miles from China. The Us is antique, never t catch up.

    Questionable advantage? Why? If the new missile leaves the Russian sub somewhere 100 miles off shore and hits it’s target in a few minutes while the old ICBMs buried in the mid-west advertise they are coming while taking ~30 minutes to go from Kansas to Moscow over the pole. How is that questionable. That is, assuming the ICBMs still work. Not guaranteed in the collapsing Us. False hope, America. You live in a very corrupt country with an incompetent military and no real protection.”

    I don’t doubt that the Russians have some impressive new weapons. I am just questioning the gritty technical details. The whole point of Russia’s supposed hypersonic weapon was that it negated the need to have a submarine 100 miles from the US coast. The Russians have plenty of ballistic missile submarines with that sort of capability already. Flying at hypersonic speeds (i.e. greater than Mach 6) in the atmosphere for thousands of miles, using an air breathing engine for propulsion is a tall order. Basic physics is against it – the shock heating at those speeds melts most metals.

    By the way, it is surprisingly easy to kill an aircraft carrier using ballistic missiles once you pinpoint its position using a satellite. Even with 1960s vintage inertial guidance systems, a long-range ballistic missile could deliver a warhead to within a few hundred metres of its target. Fitted with inertial guidance, even something as antiquated as a V2 rocket would be a significant threat to a large surface ship if its position were precisely known. Fire half a dozen such missiles and one of them is bound to hit.

    Not technically difficult. The sort of capability that the US and USSR could have developed by the 1960s.

  15. Go Speed Racer on Thu, 3rd May 2018 6:59 am 

    ANOTHER GREAT VERSION
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZwDL3-Ze4w

    AND if you like vinyl ….
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CVWpcKmz1t0

  16. Davy on Thu, 3rd May 2018 7:22 am 

    Thanks Antius, you add some clarity and objectivity to this discussion. For some people here it is completely a binary competition of victory and defeat. This unintellectual people carry emotional personal vendettas satisfied by lying presentations of cherry picked facts.

  17. Antius on Thu, 3rd May 2018 11:26 am 

    Shock heating places fundamental limits on the top speed of Putin’s air-breathing nuclear cruise missile.
    Consider the difficulty of producing a nuclear powered equivalent of the Tomahawk. The tomahawk missile is 21″ in diameter, 20.3′ long, and weighs 1.3tonnes. It is powered by F107-WR-402 turbofan engine, with a maximum thrust of 2.7KN. Cruising speed is 550mph (890km/hr) or 247m/s. Multiplying force and speed gives total engine power of 668kW. Assuming 25% engine efficiency, gives a thermal power of 2.67MW. Could we produce a nuclear heat source that would provide that much power that is 21″ in diameter? Yes. A nuclear core 21″ in diameter and 21″ long would have power density of 27.2MW/m3. That is within the power density achieved by gas cooled reactors. One problem is that gas-cooled reactors achieving those power densities are pressurised to at least 40bar. To achieve those power densities in a diffuse air stream will require a particle bed fuel matrix. To avoid burning in the air, the particles must be uranium or plutonium oxide, which is chemically stable but does not provide much neutron moderation. A water based reflector and highly enriched fuel would be needed to keep the core critical. To provide sufficient heat transfer to a low density air stream, the fuel particles must be small and must operate at high temperatures.

    The air must pass through the core at low sub-sonic speeds to avoid mechanically stressing the fuel. This means slowing down incoming air. The kinetic energy of the fast-moving air stream entering the engine is converted to heat. At speeds of 550mph (247m/s) this isn’t really a problem – it would heat the air stream by 30 degrees C. At speeds of Mach 3, the shock heating would heat the air and engine nacelle by 460 degrees C, which is about the limit of what stainless steels can operate at in air. The problem is that at any given pressure ratio, the density of coolant entering the engine decreases as temperature increases. If shock heating increases inlet temperature by 460K, density of air coolant would drop to about 1/3rd of its room temperature value and the differential temperature between the fuel and coolant shrink at the same time.

    The drag coefficient of a missile increases rapidly as it approaches sonic speeds, but at Mach 3, it is about the same as it would be at 550mph. But required engine power increases with the cube of speed. So at Mach 3, our nuclear Tomahawk would require 58 times the engine power compared to the same vehicle cruising at Mach 0.75. That equates to a core power density of 1570MW/m3, which exceeds the power density of sodium cooled reactors.

    I would therefore anticipate that Putin’s missile will be limited to sub-sonic or low-supersonic speeds.

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