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Page added on July 12, 2017

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Oil demand to grow: IEA

Oil demand to grow: IEA thumbnail

Renewed investment in upstream sector key to meeting projected demand growth

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects demand for oil to continue increasing in coming years, a forecast said to be contrary to some other consultants.

“We think oil demand will continue to grow in years to come, unlike some others who think oil demand will peak and [then] go down,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

He told delegates at the 22nd World Petroleum Congress in Istanbul that others cite the increase in the number of electric

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12 Comments on "Oil demand to grow: IEA"

  1. rockman on Wed, 12th Jul 2017 12:50 pm 

    It seems the last 40+ years has shown that oil demand is a function of the combined dynamics of the price of oil and economic growth. Neither of which have been proven easy to predict.

  2. shortonoil on Wed, 12th Jul 2017 2:13 pm 

    Oil demand to grow; all it will require is a lot of investment?? The price has fallen 55%, petroleum companies profits are close to, if not worse than zero, and the industry has already cut $620 billion in Capex through 2020.

    Sounds like an economists; IF we just throw a few $trillion (that you aren’t going to get back) at it everything will be just fine! No one is reinvesting in reserves, and they aren’t going to be with oil under $100, or more. So who is going to be providing all this increased demand. According to Wood Mackenzie data during 2015 the industry spent on average $125/ barrel to bring a new oil barrel online. Last check it was selling for $45.

  3. tita on Wed, 12th Jul 2017 2:30 pm 

    @rockman
    Just after the oil shock of 1979, oil demand indeed fell from 65MMbbls/d to 58MMbbls/d. But since, demand and production grew on average by 1MMbbls/d each years. Even the 2008 crisis was not able to refrain this growth for a long time.

    It’s not unreasonable to say that demand will continue to grow as it did on average in the last 35 years. But… yeah, 1979 could also happen again, who knows.

  4. Anonymous on Wed, 12th Jul 2017 3:03 pm 

    Great comment, tita.

  5. bobinget on Wed, 12th Jul 2017 3:39 pm 

    Near the end of this year’s hurricane season it will
    become more (or less) evident how much fuel will be required to build infrastructure needed to ward off effect of rapid sea level rise.

  6. rockman on Wed, 12th Jul 2017 4:02 pm 

    tita – Global oil demand decreased from the 2007 level in both 2008 and 2009. It would seem to correlate to higher oil prices at the time. And demand also stagnated in 1991 and 1992 after oil price had a an abrupt peak in late 1990. And one can only speculate how much demand might have decreased the last 2 years had prices not collapsed.

    http://www.indexmundi.com/energy/

    https://inflationdata.com/articles/charts/inflation-adjusted-oil-prices-chart/

  7. deadlykillerbeaz on Wed, 12th Jul 2017 6:48 pm 

    When there is a net gain of humans each day of 175,000, the no brainer conclusion is an increase in demand for oil.

  8. rockman on Wed, 12th Jul 2017 8:46 pm 

    beaz – “…the no brainer conclusion is an increase in demand for oil.” If the price is right. Remember demand is not how much oil consumers might want but how much they can afford. Today consumers can afford a near record volume at $45 +/- per bbl. But 10 years from now oil might be the same price but the consumers may be able to afford 20 million bopd less then they do today.

    Only time will tell.

  9. Apneaman on Wed, 12th Jul 2017 9:32 pm 

    Electricity investment overtakes oil and gas for the first time ever, IEA says

    -Investment in the electricity sector grew by 12 percentage points to 43 percent between 2014 and 2016

    -“India is moving to the center stage of global energy affairs”

    -Looking at the investments, growing demand and declining of existing oil fields, “we need a miracle” to avoid a major supply disruption problems in 2020s

    “Fossils fuels are no longer the largest recipient of investment in the energy sector, the latest report from the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.

    Investment in the electricity sector received the largest level of investment for the first time ever, growing its share by 12 percentage points to 43 percent between 2014 and 2016. In comparison, over the same period, investments in upstream (exploration and production) oil and gas fell 44 percent.

    “The key finding is that (the) global energy industry spent last year 12 percent less than the previous year,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, told CNBC on Tuesday. “A big decline,” he described.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/11/global-energy-investment-fell-12-percent-in-2016-to-1-point-7-trillion-iea-says.html

  10. deadlykillerbeaz on Wed, 12th Jul 2017 11:26 pm 

    According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in 2010, 3,999,386 infants were born in the United States, 3% less than in 2009. The number of births fell for nearly all races and Hispanic origin groups. The birth rate in 2010 was 13.0 per 1,000 people.

    https://www.nichd.nih.gov/health/topics/infantcare/conditioninfo/Pages/born.aspx

    Rockman, that is about 10,000 births each day in the US. Every trip to the hospital by the parents will consume at least a gallon of gas.

    Instant new demand right there. The parents will be using a car to get to the hospital.

    At almost 4 million newborns, it will be at least 4 million gallons of gas or some 10,000 barrels of oil required to make the fast trip to the hospital. 20,000 barrels need to be refined to get the gasoline.

    They will afford the gas, a no brainer there.

    A newborn in the US begins to use oil from the day they are born!

    Not to mention the doctors and nurses who drive to the hospital, even more oil right there too.

    lol

  11. Kenz300 on Fri, 14th Jul 2017 8:54 am 

    Look at the decline in coal and the bankruptcies.

    All fossil fuel use will decline over time.

    There are safer, cleaner and cheaper forms of energy.

  12. Kenz300 on Sat, 15th Jul 2017 9:57 am 

    Oil demand will grow until it does not.

    Coal demand was growing until it stopped.

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