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Page added on October 17, 2017

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Oil demand likely to peak by 2030

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As electric vehicles are to increase their popularity, particularly beyond 2025, the world petrol demand is to peak within 13 years, says a report by UK-based analysis firm Wood Mackenzie.

The analysis estimates that the demand for oil in developed countries will reduce by about four million barrels per day by 2035. But, on the other hand, the developing economies will increase their demand for oil by nearly 16 million barrels per day by 2035.

Currently 60 million out of the 96 million barrels of oil consumed globally every day is used in transport. But this is to decline from 2030, according to the analysis.

Factors such as development of more fuel efficient vehicles, climate change policies, maturing of developing economies, and restrictions such as fuel efficiency and pollution standards imposed by governments are the other reasons for the decline in the demand.

developmentchannel

 



24 Comments on "Oil demand likely to peak by 2030"

  1. MASTERMIND on Tue, 17th Oct 2017 8:29 pm 

    UC Davis Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)
    http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q

    University of Chicago Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)

    https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117

  2. Go Speed Racer on Tue, 17th Oct 2017 9:33 pm 

    Yeah right people don’t want
    oil after 2030. LOL got it OK.

  3. Sissyfuss on Tue, 17th Oct 2017 10:13 pm 

    As long as the population keeps increasing oil in all its many configurations and uses will not become superfluous anytime soon. Unlike people

  4. DerHundistlos on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 2:37 am 

    @ UFO debunkers and skeptics

    Finally, proof positive the ufo phenomenon is very real:

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/fmr-manager-of-dod-aerospace-threat-program-ufos_us_59de2f4be4b0b992a8214874#

  5. Go Speed Racer on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 4:21 am 

    UH OH.
    Mysterious Particles discovered in Saturn’s atmosphere.

    Me and Mick went on a travel for the weekend and we
    burnt up some tires and sofa’s on Saturn. We were chucking them out of the airlock of our RV cruiser spaceship. Watching me burn up in the atmosphere LOL.

    Now NASA is trying to figure out where all the particles in the atmosphere cake from. Damn hope they don’t figure out it was us.

    http://www.nature.com/news/mysterious-particles-spotted-in-saturn-s-atmosphere-1.22838?sf122880304=1

  6. Go Speed Racer on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 4:39 am 

    Oh phuckin Great,
    Apple wrecked my post again.
    ThNks Apple crappiest product on the planet.

    Moving right along, here is where
    all the gold came from.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/10/17/what-the-new-gravitational-waves-discovery-means-for-the-future-of-astronomy/?utm_term=.ece15439cc21

    Loading up the space cruiser RV,
    Gonna go get some of that gold.

  7. deadlykillerbeaz on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 4:56 am 

    2030 is 13 years away. There will be one billion more people on earth.

    8.5 billion people need to eat and some animals will be sacrificed so 8.5 billion people can eat.

    You will need machines to process the meat from pigs, goats, cows, and chickens. Grains for bread and beer. Grapes for wine, you need machines to grow enough food to feed 8.5 billion lost souls.

    Fuel and oil will be used, maybe less of it as electricity can become the usable energy of choice. A twenty horsepower electric motor is going to power a drive. Work will get done. A 1500 horsepower electric drilling rig will turn and drill for oil. Coal mining will still be happening in 2030.

    Crude oil will still be around 13 years from now.

    2045 will get here too, time marches on.

    There should be another 1.2 billion more people by then. 9.7 billion is a lot.

    There will be oil in 2045, coal too.

    No need to worry.

  8. TheNationalist on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 7:01 am 

    Go Speed Racer, with nonsense like that you will never be invited on a Mars mission. I can see you now burning the space station sofa on the lower slopes of Olympus Mons. A sacrifice to the sofa god in your head?

  9. fmr-paultard on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 8:06 am 

    GSRtard, Stephen Crothers said you can’t localize gravitational energy so you can’t detect gravitational waves.

    It’s all BS.

  10. rockman on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 8:49 am 

    Baez – “A 1500 horsepower electric drilling
    rig…” You may know but for those that don’t: all rigs today drill with electric motors. And that electricity is supplied by diesel powered generators on the rig.

    And no: it’s not practical to connect rigs to the grid.

  11. Go Speed Racer on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 10:35 am 

    When me and Mick was up on the
    space station, we never lit the sofa
    on fire. That should only be done on
    planets where the atmosphere takes
    the smoke away.

    But we did catch hell from NASA,
    for ordering a sausage and pepperoni
    pizza from Pizza Hut. The
    delivery truck couldn’t find a place to park.

  12. Dredd on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 10:43 am 

    “Oil demand likely to peak by 2030”

    It is lagging behind social dementia (Etiology of Social Dementia – 17).

  13. Cloggie on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 1:19 pm 

    Hywind Scotland – the World’s First Floating Wind Farm Operational

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/10/18/hywind-scotland-the-worlds-first-floating-wind-farm-operational/

    Now offshore windturbines can operate in a water depth up to 800 meter.

  14. Go Speed Racer on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 2:30 pm 

    Ha, Clogster,
    If ya put a windmill on the bottom
    of the ocean, 800 meter down,
    there ain’t no wind down there!

    And a submarine will hit it too.
    Back to the drawing board.

  15. rockman on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 2:38 pm 

    Cloggie – Interesting. The closest I could come to estimating the value of the output: $253 million “total cost” (not sure what that includes. Probably doesn’t included maintenance) supplying “20,000 homes = $12,700 per home. And over just 10 years: $105/month. Even not including maintenance that sounds rather impressive.

  16. Cloggie on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 3:29 pm 

    Rockman – this is perhaps your source:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-18/world-s-first-floating-offshore-wind-farm-begins-operating

    $253 million for 6 turbines is hefty to say the least, but for a pilot project rathet irrelevant.

  17. Harquebus on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 5:02 pm 

    “Unfortunately, energy analysts, who are clueless to the amount of destruction taking place in the U.S. and global oil industry by the falling EROI, continue to mislead a public that is totally unprepared for what is coming.”
    https://srsroccoreport.com/worlds-largest-oil-companies-deep-trouble-as-profits-vaporize-while-debts-skyrocket/

  18. Cloggie on Wed, 18th Oct 2017 9:39 pm 

    “If ya put a windmill on the bottom
    of the ocean, 800 meter down,
    there ain’t no wind down there!
    And a submarine will hit it too.
    Back to the drawing board.”

    The thing is called a floating turbine because it is, well, floating. But since you don’t want the thing to float in all sorts of horizontal directions, it needs to be anchored with a cable to the bottom of the sea. In order to keep a steel structure of 200 meters high in place, you need strong heavy steel cables, who have considerable weight themselves. If these cables would become too long, they would pull the turbine under water, so there is a max. depth. Apparently 800 meters.

  19. Cloggie on Thu, 19th Oct 2017 2:31 am 

    German trade unions fear massive layoffs in automotive industry in the coming ten years. Like 450,000 of the total 900,000 jobs. 10-15 car factories could have to close down. Why? Because e-vehicles are far simpler than the old gasoline clunker.

    An 8-cylinder car has 1200 parts, an elektromotor just 25.

    A bright spot is that the German industry holds 58% of the autonomous driving patents world-wide. Additionally the article claims that by 2030 the total global car fleet will have been doubled.

    http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/autoindustrie-die-grosse-angst-vor-dem-grossen-jobkahlschlag-a-1172464.html

    What the article doesn’t mention is that autonomous driving could imply another giant slashing of jobs on top of the simplification of going electric. Why buy a car for occasional trips if you can rent one?

    The British consulting firm Rethinkx says that by 2030 most people won’t own a car anymore and that cars/small buses will become part of public transport-on-demand. As consequence the death warrant for the global car industry will be sealed.

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/05/16/by-2030-you-wont-own-a-car/

  20. Go Speed Racer on Thu, 19th Oct 2017 2:32 am 

    Hi Clogster,

    I dunno, all that cable and barges and windmill blades, and submarines hitting your cables.

    I have got a great idea, which avoids all
    those problems. Its the
    latest thing, we just dig up some coal and
    put it into an electric power station, or
    a steam engine …

    http://www.newsofinterest.tv/_sam_noitv/global_warming/effects/disease/asthma/thumbnail_images/asthma_large.jpg

    and

    https://farm2.static.flickr.com/1456/26453389221_c34c9cc7f9_b.jpg

  21. Cloggie on Thu, 19th Oct 2017 2:40 am 

    I dunno, all that cable and barges and windmill blades, and submarines hitting your cables.

    Submarine captains usually have maps and radar. If subs can evade ships, they can evade floating wind-turbines or normal offshore wind turbines. Or perhaps submarines should be banned from the North Sea and similar intensively used areas. That’s why depth charges exist.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExA69prggRg

  22. Davy on Thu, 19th Oct 2017 7:01 am 

    But but, cloggie said everything in Euroland was golden.

    “Ray Dalio Is Shorting The Entire EU”
    http://tinyurl.com/y9aprck8

    “Derivatives Body Warns EU Against Moving Euro Clearing From London. Shifting clearing of euro-denominated derivatives from London to the European continent would require banks to set aside far more cash to insure trades against defaults, a cost that would be passed on to companies, a global derivatives industry body says. [..]The London Stock Exchange’s subsidiary LCH currently clears the bulk of euro-denominated swaps, a derivative contract that helps companies guard against unexpected moves in interest rates or currencies. Britain, however, is due to leave the bloc in 2019, putting it out of the EU’s regulatory reach. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), one of the world’s top derivatives industry bodies, said on Monday that a “relocation” in euro clearing to continental Europe would split liquidity in markets and reduce the ability of banks to save on margin by offsetting positions in the same liquidity pool.”

    “The EU finances itself on the fly. It’ll have a €254 pile of unpaid bills in 3 years time. That is scary. Not for Brussels, but for its member countries. A hard Brexit, in which Britain may refuse to pay, is perhaps even scarier. Anyway, once Juncker’s done with all that, he’ll have to move on to the next problem. Derivatives is a big cloud hanging over Europe, but this one is potentially shattering. Ray Dalio, manager of the world’s biggest hedge fund, is shorting, placing large bets against, anything Italian, and given Italy’s size and hence importance to the EU, his bets are effectively bets against Brussels.”

    “$1.1 billion against the banking system, $310 million against the main utility, $140 million vs pan-European insurer Generali and now $300 million vs the national oil and gas company, That adds up to quite a bit more than the Bloomberg graph says, but I’ll include it anyway. Dalio doesn’t call the bluff of Italy, and this is not just like George Soros’ shorting the British pound in 1992, he’s calling out the entire EU and its financial system. He’s saying I don’t believe you can keep up the charade. He’s making a mockery of Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes”. So what are Rome, Brussels and Frankfurt going to do? They can’t ignore the no. 1 hedge fund forever. They will have to pump money into Italy, in large amounts. Merkel won’t like that, neither will her new coalition partner FDP, and the Bundesbank may start legal action. Dalio’s located the Union’s achilles heel, which is not just that Italy’s insolvent (it’s not alone in that), but that there’s a gigantic theater production being performed to give everyone the impression that things are going just swimmingly, thank you. So Dalio’s said: how much for a ticket to the show?, and paid it. And now he’s inside.”

  23. Cloggie on Thu, 19th Oct 2017 7:20 am 

    But but, cloggie said everything in Euroland was golden.

    Never said that “everything” was golden. I just quoted this Black Rock $6T Hildebrand guy who professed that the economic outlook for Europe was very good for the coming years, which is my impression as well.

    But this is GDP only and has nothing to do with derivatives or the amount of money the ECB is allowed to pump into the economy or not or if the pension age is tenable (probable not).

    Try to keep in your brain: GDP only.

    https://www.ft.com/content/c6c824c8-3637-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3?mhq5j=e5
    For once, and for the moment, the EU economies are doing well. This would be an excellent time to make sure that they are robust enough to withstand the downturn that will inevitably come at some point.

    This does not mean, as Hildebrand also confirms, the a “golden decade” (10 year growth of 1.5-3%/year) is guaranteed. If America collapses or in case of a major war things could look quite different.

    But I know that you are going to twist it again as intellectual honesty is not your most important character trait.

    Oh and got any other sources than this Nicole Foss collapsenik?

    http://i.vimeocdn.com/video/625648729_1280x720.jpg

    Should she not be backing cookies for her grand-children?

    Keep looking for evidence that Europe is about to collapse.lol

  24. Davy on Thu, 19th Oct 2017 7:42 am 

    “But I know that you are going to twist it again as intellectual honesty is not your most important character trait.”
    “Keep looking for evidence that Europe is about to collapse.lol”

    It amazes me how intellectually dishonest people twist discussion. Clogged, you are the one with the unsupportable position of Euroland as an unstoppable power on all levels from a coming fantasy grand Euro Army, cultural superiority, and financially dominance. Currently these conditions are either unrealized or lack luster. You attack the US on all these levels obsessively as an extremist. You discount or ignore any US positives.

    Where have I said Europe is going to collapse any differently than the rest of the globe? My position is we will collapse together because of interconnectedness. This is supported by science and other well respected academics like Joseph Tainter, “The Collapse of Complex Societies”. I have said clearly and you can google my comments, the collapse is a process that has unclear parameters of the “where and when”. The important point is once it occurs the contagions will affect all.

    You are an extremist clog and extremist must maintain a very high level for their side and they must maintain a very low negative stance for their opposition. You are a binary game player with extremist views. You are a fraud just like mad kat.

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