The International Energy Agency made headlines Monday when it declared in its World Energy Outlook 2017 that the U.S. could be a net exporter of oil within a decade. The IEA also projected that the U.S. is set to become the world’s dominant oil and gas production leader for decades.

Is that a realistic assessment? Is the U.S. on the cusp of achieving energy independence for the first time in nearly 70 years?

A dozen years ago, the notion that the U.S. could achieve energy independence would have drawn scoffs from most energy analysts (including myself). After all, U.S. oil production had been in decline since reaching a peak of 9.6 million barrels per day (BPD) in 1970. By 2005, U.S. oil production had fallen to 5.2 million barrels per day.

But U.S oil demand continued to grow, so crude oil imports soared as production declined. By 2005, net imports of crude oil and finished products like gasoline had reached a record 12.5 million BPD.

U.S. energy security hit an all-time low in 2005, but the situation has changed dramatically since then. Oil and gas drillers had been experimenting with combining hydraulic fracturing with horizontal drilling, and their success ushered in the shale oil and gas boom.

Natural gas production turned upward in 2006 and would rise by 50% over the next decade. Oil production followed in 2009 and added more than 4 million BDP of new production by 2015.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil demand, which had exceeded 20 million BPD from 2003 to 2007, ultimately softened in response to rising oil prices. Demand began to decline in 2008, and within five years had fallen by 2 million BPD.

The combination of surging supplies and slumping demand caused U.S. oil imports to begin falling. The new oil supplies from the U.S. shale plays proved to be a bonanza for U.S. refiners, which processed the oil and began to export some of the finished products.

The U.S. became a net exporter of finished products (e.g., diesel, gasoline, etc.) in 2011 for the first time since 1949. Today, the U.S. still imports about 8 million BPD of oil, but we also export approximately 2 million BPD of crude oil and natural gas liquids, as well as more than 3 million BPD of finished products.

The overall effect is that net U.S. imports of crude oil and finished products fell from a high of 12.5 million BPD in 2005 to less than 5 million BPD in 2015. U.S. energy security is at its highest level since the 1980s, but could the U.S. achieve full energy independence?

It depends on how it is defined. Between 2008 and 2014, net imports fell by 6 million BPD at a fairly steady pace. The U.S. was on a trajectory to achieve zero net imports by 2019, which would have effectively meant energy independence. The U.S. would have still imported oil as it does now, but it was on pace to export enough finished products to net out to zero.

Does that amount to energy independence? Some would argue “no,” since we would still import oil in that situation. By that standard, we will never truly be independent because there will always be economic reasons to import some oil even if, at the same time, we export oil and finished products. For example, some U.S. refineries near Canada may always opt for Canadian crude.

But if the metric is that our petroleum exports are equal to or greater than our imports, then that is achievable. Had oil prices not collapsed in 2014, U.S. shale oil production would probably have continued to grow at a rapid pace for several more years. If the trends before 2014 had continued for five more years, and as long as U.S. demand remained relatively flat, then 2019 could have been the year energy independence was achieved.

But the oil price collapse caused U.S. oil production to dip, and net imports trended slightly higher in 2016. U.S. oil production is once again on the rise, but demand is also climbing higher.

Still, the remarkable decline in net imports as the shale oil boom began to pay dividends shows that the notion of energy independence isn’t as far-fetched as it seemed a decade ago. If oil prices gain strength, that should both boost production and make alternatives like electric vehicles more attractive, which would help push the U.S. closer to energy independence.

My verdict on the IEA’s projection? It is certainly possible but will likely require oil prices to rise from current levels.

Robert Rapier, Forbes

140 Comments on "Is U.S. Energy Independence In Sight?"

Davy on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 5:45 pm 



mad kat, globalresearch dot com is disinformation

onlooker on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 6:05 pm 



Makati, we are not just at each others throats in the US.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/08/28/hurricane-harvey-message-houston-americans-helping/
Americans helping each other during crisis.

makati1 on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 6:07 pm 



“Strauss & Howe provide four possible outcomes to our current Crisis:
1. This Fourth Turning could mark the end of man. It could be an omnicidal Armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing. If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when its dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly. For this Fourth Turning to put an end to all this would require an extremely unlikely blend of social disaster, human malevolence, technological perfection and bad luck.
2. The Fourth Turning could mark the end of modernity. The Western saecular rhythm – which began in the mid-fifteenth century with the Renaissance – could come to an abrupt terminus. The seventh modern saeculum would be the last. This too could come from total war, terrible but not final. There could be a complete collapse of science, culture, politics, and society. Such a dire result would probably happen only when a dominant nation (like today’s America) lets a Fourth Turning ekpyrosis engulf the planet. But this outcome is well within the reach of foreseeable technology and malevolence.
3. The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify. The nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, the Soviet Union only one. Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival. Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread in more than one battle. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most lethal war in history. In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed. In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.
4. Or the Fourth Turning could simply mark the end of the Millennial Saeculum. Mankind, modernity, and America would all persevere. Afterward, there would be a new mood, a new High, and a new saeculum. America would be reborn. But, reborn, it would not be the same.”

https://www.theburningplatform.com/page/2/

We live in “interesting” times.

Anonymous on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 6:35 pm 



Good article overall. I would strengthen the point about price impact (already well mentioned). It is not inconceivable that OPEC could shatter (not saying it will happen or even 50% likelihood, just that it is not out of realm of real scenarios). If that happened, prices would be at sub 40 quickly and for years. And US production would decline.

One other upgrade on the article would be to be more careful about “energy independence” versus “petroleum independence”. It is possible that given the net exports of coal (and gas coming) that we become “energy independent” while still being a net importer of petroleum.

peripato on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 6:37 pm 



Of course the shale oil play will never peak…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

GregT on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 7:00 pm 



” Widdle g are you capable of a comment that involves intelligence?”

You mean like the comment below? That isn’t intelligence delusionalist. It’s what normal well adjusted 5 year olds would call make believe.

“Widdle g, you need to be honest and tell Mad Kat anything on ZH is disinformation or you are basically a liar. You guys are best friends so this issue needs to be resolved. You are accusing him of spreading disinformation this could cause harm to your friendship.”

Davy on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 7:07 pm 



Say something widdle, are you capable of a comment that is not stalking and pricking?

GregT on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 7:08 pm 



“mad kat, globalresearch dot com is disinformation”

globalresearch.com is an executive search consultant company called DAVID LAWS & COMPANY.

They don’t give out information unless you pay for it. You’d have to be pretty stupid to pay for disinformation.

Just saying delusionalist.

MASTERMIND on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 7:28 pm 



GregT

You’d have to be pretty stupid to pay for disinformation.

Bingo! He is an elderly old man.So the internet isn’t his thing…he should stick to wheel o fortune.com…

GregT on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 7:28 pm 



“Say something widdle, are you capable of a comment that is not stalking and pricking?”

What would you call this:

“Widdle g, you need to be honest and tell Mad Kat anything on ZH is disinformation or you are basically a liar. You guys are best friends so this issue needs to be resolved. You are accusing him of spreading disinformation this could cause harm to your friendship.”

Other than name calling, childish rhetoric, and more delusional accusations?

GregT on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 7:37 pm 



“Bingo! He is an elderly old man.So the internet isn’t his thing…he should stick to wheel o fortune.com…”

He’s the same age as I am. I wouldn’t consider that to be old, unless I was under 30. Are you under 30 MM?

Davy on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 7:40 pm 



Widdle g, can you make a comment that is not stalking and pricking. You know, a comment that is informative based upon issues this site covers.

fmr-paultard on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 7:41 pm 



mastard you are not supertard level. im sorry. stick to genital farming

Anonymous on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 7:45 pm 



Bakken up ~19,000 bpd in SEP (last monthly report from North Dakota, just came out today).

https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2017-11-15.pdf

makati1 on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 7:51 pm 



Greg, I suspected that you were more experienced (older) than most here by your comments on the real world. I also suspect that MM is not even 30. He certainly does not act like it. “Elderly” is my uncle who is 94 or my step-dad who is 93, not my 73. Unless I look in the mirror, I feel like I am about 40. lol

BTW: I pay for nothing on the internet except when I buy a plane ticket. I do like to get as many opinions on current events as I can, from wide sources, to get a more real picture. Those hiding behind the US MSM Iron Curtain have only propaganda to view.

GregT on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 8:50 pm 



“Widdle g, can you make a comment that is not stalking and pricking. You know, a comment that is informative based upon issues this site covers.”

You mean like this one? :

“Widdle g, you need to be honest and tell Mad Kat anything on ZH is disinformation or you are basically a liar. You guys are best friends so this issue needs to be resolved. You are accusing him of spreading disinformation this could cause harm to your friendship.”

Or would you consider that to be name calling, childish rhetoric, and delusional accusations, like most normal (not emotionally and psychologically disturbed) people would?

fmr-paultard on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 9:30 pm 



Altard media dead and eurotard retiring taking hyperrevisinism brand with him. Twitter and YouTube made me notice

Good news all around. Let’s clean up intardweb of fake news and extremism. As a former paultard it’s easy. Private property

Back in the paultard day I risked lead poisoning because I didn’t understand the paultard compatriots when it comes to private property. Guns everywhere

Msm of intardweb can do anything because it’s private property

makati1 on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 10:56 pm 



fmr, who decides what is “fake news”? You? Or do you want a total censorship of everything important in your life? THAT is what you are asking for. More of what the US MSM already does. Lie. Cover-up. And brainwash you 24/7/365.

You would probably be against it if Russia or China decided what you could see and read so who are you going to give these godly powers to? The liars in DC? The Eurotards? Saudi Arabia? Israel? How about Wall Street? Suckerman? Me? LOL

Ask and ye shall receive, and then don’t complain when the chains tighten and you are a serf/slave for the “deciders” which will NOT be you. You are NOT in the club and will never be. (Paraphrasing George Carlin)

makati1 on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 12:15 am 



“Is U.S. Energy Independence In Sight?”

IF there is a real war in the ME, then “energy independence” will be forced on the US. The negative is that it will be at an much lower level and a much higher price Possibly causing the financial crash and the coming Greatest Depression that the US will never come out of.

OR… it could escalate into a real world war in which the US will be destroyed by its many enemies.

OR… the US could just continue the decline until the energy needs meet the ability to produce/purchase. Half way? Lower?

OR… one of the “enemy” pops an EMP over Kansas and shuts down the whole county for good.

Interesting choices. There is no other way the US can be “energy independent”.

makati1 on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 12:26 am 



fmr, there are so many ‘red herrings’ being dragged thru the US ‘news’ these days that the US is one huge fish market and is beginning to smell like rotting fish. Or is it bullshit? Or both? LOL

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 1:59 am 



“Greg, I suspected that you were more experienced (older) than most here by your comments on the real world.”
Mad kat and widdle g always craving respect. Maybe if you two showed respect you would find it.

“Unless I look in the mirror, I feel like I am about 40. Lol”
I bet you look in the mirror a lot.

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 2:04 am 



“You mean like this one? :.”
Widdle g, when is the last time you contributed anything. All you do is stalk, prick, and whine. You are in a state of depression and bored in the hills of BC. You retired way too early and now you feel useless. You combat the depression through anger and lashing out at those you hate. You also find friendship with another lonely old man over in the p’s. Another lonely old man attacking others to justify his own personality issues of a failed life in the US.

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 2:07 am 



“fmr, who decides what is “fake news”
Mad kat, you and widdle g try to tell us your version of fake news and the two of you can’t even agree on it. Widdle tells you not to go to Zero Hedge but you go anyhow. If I did widdle would call it disinformation but if you do it then it is your right to an opinion. Does that sound like a dumbass double standard?

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 2:09 am 



“Ask and ye shall receive, and then don’t complain when the chains tighten and you are a serf”
You are living in Duerte’s Hell not me

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 2:10 am 



“IF there is a real war in the ME, then “energy independence” will be forced on the US.”
True, but the real pain is going to be in Asia. Asia is now deep into energy dependence on the ME especially China. All of Asia is dependent on China. You are in worse shape than I am mad kat.

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 2:12 am 



“OR… it could escalate into a real world war in which the US will be destroyed by its many enemies.”
Mad kat, more fantasy hatred. Our death is your death. BTW, I thought you had a large family in the US. The way you talk it sounds like you could give a shit about them.

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 2:21 am 



Corruption and a police state what could be more oppressive?

“Corruption In China Risks A Soviet-Style Collapse – Party’s Graft Buster”
http://tinyurl.com/yd9d2q26

“In unusually direct and strongly worded criticism of previous administrations, Yang said “in a previous period”, corruption had been allowed to fester to such an extent that the party’s leadership had weakened, with supervision soft, and ideology apathetic. “It had developed to the point where if not rectified, the country could change colour,” Yang wrote in the official People’s Daily. “The future fate of the party and the country’s people could follow the same old road to ruin as the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc.”

“In the wake of the Party Congress, we can deduce that Xi means business on deleveraging and cooling the property bubble, stepping up efforts to reduce pollution, in addition to attacking corruption. We continue to believe that China is entering a more risky phase than financial markets are discounting at this point.”

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 2:26 am 



“The Complete Idiot’s Guide To The Biggest Risks In China”
http://tinyurl.com/y76fpvsn

“As Deutsche Bank’s Zhiwei Zhang writes in “Risks to watch in the next six months”, the key thing to keep in mind about China now that the 19th Party Congress is in the rear-view mirror, is that the government is likely to tolerate slower growth in 2018. Han Wenxiu, the deputy head of the Research Office of the State Council, said that GDP growth at 6.3% in 2018-2020 would be sufficient to achieve the Party’s 2020 growth target. And while this is a positive message for the long term, it indicates growth will likely slow in 2018. And, as DB warns, recent economic data suggest the economic cycle has indeed cooled down.”

“And while Deutsche’s veteran Chinese analysts have some soothing words for the world’s 25-year-old traders who have yet to see a bear market, and promise that nothing will break in China, we would disagree because as we have said for the past 3 years, the next global crisis will start in China, and with Xi’s role cemented for the next 5 years (if not for life) the smart thing would be to have the Chinese economic hiccup (because recession is clearly a taboo under central planning) as soon as possible, so the economy can recover by 2022. Judging by the tremors in the past few days, he may agree.”

fmr-paultard on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 7:11 am 



aswang you have nothing positive in your life to talk about. all you have to talk about is supertards’ america. this right there tells me the rest of the world covets what supertards built. i’m a tard, if there’s something to learn at my fingertips, don’t you think i wouldn’t go learn it?

you and eurotards are angry and biter meretards. why don’t you get off supertards lawn. the eurotards is still angry about Germany’s loss 70 some years ago! such fake concern and anger can not be good in case eurotard and alt-tard media SENTAPBs gain power. It would be maximum reribution.

The people that jammed frequencies, gave us Pravda and maintained a “juche” doctrine by stealing supertards’ technolgoy and recruit our “cambridge five” have nothing for meretards like me to learn from. China is now complicit in the coup in Zimbawe, haven’t you heard?

Do supertards have territorial ambition in mexico and Canada? you can’t say the same about Russia and China now can you?

fmr-paultard on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 8:28 am 



aswang why don’t you tell us something good about phils? this is another source of same pictures that i posted

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2017/10/a-victory-against-isis-in-the-philippines-leaves-a-city-destroyed/543963/

where are your supertards in the phils? i don’t think you are a supertard and if you are your number is too small to count. you were a commander? i’m willing to give you a supertard credential but onlly honorary standing since you lost it a long time ago.

how’s your boyfriend doing? any thought of bringing eurotard into the relationship IRL?

i have many supertard commanders left. if your internationalist alt-tard inspired every want to set up camp here we’d root you out.

you fought isis with meretards and a total lack of supertards at command level, you ended up with “destroying it to save it” approach.

i’m a paultard i don’t want to destroy america to save it.

how did your “supertards” sleep at the wheels and allowed isis to move such amount of weapons and fighters there?

oops i think i did it again like britney spears! I don’t think you have any supertards.

enjoy your life in your virtual farm. I don’t want to live in a place that have no supertards. you have problem understanding electrictiy. I was a tard in college and i barely graduated with a useless liberal arts degree. but electricity is walk in the part on a nice sunny sunday afternoon

fmr-paultard on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 8:35 am 



enjoy your $16m that president trump gave you to fight isis and rebuild. omg even a meretard like me with modest means would hold out for at least 100 times that.

you feed off the scraps from supertards’s table. but i understand 16m is big to you .

my apoologies i don’t quote alt-tard media
http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/30/news/companies/hurricane-harvey-corporate-donations/index.html

i gave some sheckles to houston, fl and puerto rico.

let’s just wait when disaster strikes phils. you’ll come begging us. putin, china and eurotards are not going to give you a dime.

fmr-paultard on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 9:40 am 



aswang your question is “who watches the watchers?” you need to give me more difficult homework. i’m a tard and i was tasked with investigating everything. i even investigated UFOs and cattle mutilation. here it is again: it’s a product of a folksy’s mind.

not putin, not the people who jammed frequency, gave us pravada, adhering to “juche” doctrine using stolen technology that supertards developed and recruited Cambridge Five. our supertards come in so close contact with you and the first thing you do is recruting. you’re no different than ISIS! have some honor

not duterte who is a “nice” dictator who killed.

not President Xi who recently had a “comdrade Xi said thing”

not eurotard, the tendency to resurect 1945 germany is strong.

not canada, part of teh crown, nuff said.

that leaves supertards and republic of America.

oh, not you either. you said you hold grudge of germany’s defeat. But that’s the burden on germans. humanity tasked them the job of fighting. Somebody has to be shock troops, someone has to clear the mines.

Guess who was german, supertard Ron Paul. I used to call him President Paul. We had the r3VOLution on our own, we didn’t want to destroy in order to save, we refused assistance from foreign powers.

you and eurotard are desperate to win, there lies the weakness. supertards will exploit it, I’m sure of it.

fmr-paultard on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 10:17 am 



aswang, worry not about our disposessions and enslavement. you’re confusing the era of serfdom in europe which motivated frederic bastiat to write “the law”. I was a paultard and my name appeared on a list somewhere so I got a copy of it.

where do you see remnants serfdom today? “Comrade Xi”, president Putin, murderer in chief duterte, british crown up north.

aswange, don’t worry about it. did president trump do anything to help apalachia? ZILCH.

we did good helping harvey, irma, and puerto rico. we also gave you $16millions.

enjoy that scrap we collected under supertards table.

GregT on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 11:15 am 



“Corruption In China Risks A Soviet-Style Collapse – Party’s Graft Buster”

http://tinyurl.com/yd9d2q26

More disinformation from the Bulgarian. AKA Tyler Durden.

GregT on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 11:16 am 



“The Complete Idiot’s Guide To The Biggest Risks In China”

http://tinyurl.com/y76fpvsn

More disinformation from the Bulgarian, AKA Tyler Durden.

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 11:38 am 



Bullshit, widdle g, do you have a link or reference to debate. No because you are incapable of it. You have a dumbass block where in desperation you stalk and prick.

GregT on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 11:52 am 



“Corruption In China Risks A Soviet-Style Collapse – Party’s Graft Buster”

http://tinyurl.com/yd9d2q26

From the comment section of the above disinfo article:

“Something said about “rocks” and “glass houses” comes to mind everytime someone from the US starts talking about imminent Chinese economic doom.”

“Finally officially acknowledged that the Soviet was a left fascist oligarchic corrupt system and not a functional social democracy. Obviously the American left secreadly admired that status quo and tried hard to copy and modernize it instead of keeping traditionally on the road of building a genuine functional social democracy in US.”

“Historically China expands until it hits resistance then it collapses. It’s just the way that centralized culture works. The idiots here dropped the best republic that has ever been created chasing “Honest Abe’s” centralized dream and it’s going to screw us all before it’s done. We came close to avoiding the “one guy at the top” mindset but missed the silver ring. Now our culture is being replaced by the morons in charge that think they can fix everything FN thing. I would give my life to see their heads on sticks! If only Booth had done his deed 6 years before…”

“If only China were corrupt like us and had a screwed up economy like the US, UK, Australia., etc. They are well on the way to dominating the global economy. ”

“How it’s going to go down, both the US and China will collapse at the same time, joined at the hip.

“The difference is the Chinese will quickly take an iron grip on their problems, use their surplus money to soften the fall, and quell public anger by machine gunning bankers and corrupt party/government leaders. The US will print and borrow to bail out Wall Street, plunder your 401Ks, and slobber on Bankster dick as the currency sublimates directly from solid to gas.”

“The human rights issue is getting old. US needs to come up with another excuse to intertere in other countries internal affairs.”

“China learned from the west to print money at will, it has at least another 50 years to catch up to the same debt levels as the west, by then printing will not be needed as digital currencies will eliminate all runs on banks and the central banks can easily add few zeros to their balance sheets on the asset side and delete few zeros on their liability side.

the us is collapsing right now and the rest will not help much as the corruption is beyond repair. the government is allowing monopolies to fleece the population and the oligarchy rule the land .

the people in power disregard the will of the voters and can remove anybody voted in by making up a propaganda like Russia gate or other shenanigans with the bought media in their camp.

Glad I won’t be around to see the total destruction of society and to watch rivers of blood in the streets.”

At least the readers there appear to have a grasp on reality. Unlike the delusionalist.

GregT on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 12:00 pm 



“The Complete Idiot’s Guide To The Biggest Risks In China”

http://tinyurl.com/y76fpvsn

More comments from yet another disinfo article by the Bulgarian:

“Harvest the writers organs. Worthless nonsense”

“zh today: because as we have said for the past 3 years, the next global crisis will start in China…

zh ten years from now: because as we have said for the past 13 years, the next global crisis will start in China…”

“Their per capital base is still not very high < 10k, the population is well educated and their infrastrature is top line."

"However much ZH wants China to implode does not necessarily make it happen.
Where does your Quant come from (Hint he's got a H-1B visa)?
Publish this story again in January, lets see how the chess board is then."

"This is trading. Trading is gambling. almost nobodt wins in the long run. It is not investment. It is no different than Vegas. At least in Vegas half naked women bring you drinks while you are losing money using your "system".
The writer uses a lot of charts and data to hide the fact that he is no different than the guy furtively calling his bookie with a bet on today's game. Old whore in a new dress."

"I swear these China articles are produced by bots.."

"Well, the article is entitled "Complete Idiot's Guide…"."

Do you not read the comments delusionalist?

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 12:25 pm 



So you are saying there is no risk or corruption in China? Where are your references Einstein? You just gave your personal opinion that dove tails with the other anti-American sinophile extremists on this board. Show the goods dumbass. IMA, LMFAO, I finally got your stupid ass to say something even though it was lame and limp.

GregT on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 12:33 pm 



“So you are saying there is no risk or corruption in China?”

No, I am saying that Zerohedge is not a reliable source of factual information.

“You just gave your personal opinion that dove tails with the other anti-American sinophile extremists on this board.”

Most of the opinions presented in the comments section appear to be from your fellow Americans. Just saying……

“Show the goods dumbass. IMA, LMFAO, I finally got your stupid ass to say something even though it was lame and limp.”

Not only are you completely delusional, you are an intellectual lightweight. Just slightly above Boat.

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 12:48 pm 



Review this widdle g and please give me something that says this is “not a reliable source of factual information.” The reason you didn’t is you can’t because it is what is going on in China now. For you to offer anything contrary to this requires a source and you have none. A comment board is no different than here with a bunch of extremist zealots.” I dare you to show me Deutsche Bank’s Zhiwei did not say what is bellow. I dare you to tell me risk in the next 6 months is not elevated. Tell me a recession is not possible in 6 moths.

“The Complete Idiot’s Guide To The Biggest Risks In China”
http://tinyurl.com/y76fpvsn
“As Deutsche Bank’s Zhiwei Zhang writes in “Risks to watch in the next six months”, the key thing to keep in mind about China now that the 19th Party Congress is in the rear-view mirror, is that the government is likely to tolerate slower growth in 2018. Han Wenxiu, the deputy head of the Research Office of the State Council, said that GDP growth at 6.3% in 2018-2020 would be sufficient to achieve the Party’s 2020 growth target. And while this is a positive message for the long term, it indicates growth will likely slow in 2018. And, as DB warns, recent economic data suggest the economic cycle has indeed cooled down.”
“And while Deutsche’s veteran Chinese analysts have some soothing words for the world’s 25-year-old traders who have yet to see a bear market, and promise that nothing will break in China, we would disagree because as we have said for the past 3 years, the next global crisis will start in China, and with Xi’s role cemented for the next 5 years (if not for life) the smart thing would be to have the Chinese economic hiccup (because recession is clearly a taboo under central planning) as soon as possible, so the economy can recover by 2022. Judging by the tremors in the past few days, he may agree.”

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 12:54 pm 



Widdle g, will you show me where Yang Xiadou, the Party’s number two man in X,i did not say these things I referenced. Do you have source? Nope you don’t because he did indeed said these things. It is documented and availed. Can you give me sources that says what I referenced is false? Are you telling me China is not deleveraging and trying to cool their bubbles?

“Corruption In China Risks A Soviet-Style Collapse – Party’s Graft Buster”
http://tinyurl.com/yd9d2q26
“In unusually direct and strongly worded criticism of previous administrations, Yang said “in a previous period”, corruption had been allowed to fester to such an extent that the party’s leadership had weakened, with supervision soft, and ideology apathetic. “It had developed to the point where if not rectified, the country could change colour,” Yang wrote in the official People’s Daily. “The future fate of the party and the country’s people could follow the same old road to ruin as the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc.”
“In the wake of the Party Congress, we can deduce that Xi means business on deleveraging and cooling the property bubble, stepping up efforts to reduce pollution, in addition to attacking corruption. We continue to believe that China is entering a more risky phase than financial markets are discounting at this point.”

Cloggie on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 4:39 pm 



Davy loves to see China and the rest of the world in financial categories, the only category, a very American category, he knows and very misleading at that. The US was in big financial and economic problems throughout the thirties. in 1945, after their mass-murder campaign in Europe, they arrived at planetary pole position. Finance is thus the most useless category in predicting geopolitics.

They understand that much better at the US vassal media #1 in Germany, der Spiegel. Their message (which they do not like): forget about America, they are in full retreat. China already is the #1 and will be increasingly so.

But these stale lefties/commies from Hamburg are not yet ready for the most logical conclusion, namely the revival of Gaullism and Paris-Berlin-Moscow as a counterweight for rising Chinese power.

http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/warum-china-die-weltmacht-nr-1-ist-a-1177858.html
(paywall)

Wie China schon heute die Welt beherrscht

(How China already controls the world)

During the CP convention, Xi had declared that their economic model can serve as a model for the rest of the world. And, please take note: “Our Chinese civilization shines in lasting splendor and glory.”

Got that?

Not a trace of old inferiority complexes. They already begin to glorify themselves. Where Deng Xiaoping urged his comrades to cautiously deal with China’s growing weight… “Hide your strength and wait”, this attitude is now completely gone. China is preparing itself to become the next #1.. and it will become #1. It already is.

The world, Xi said, is at the beginning of a new “era when China will move into the center.”

Der Spiegel said: this is not the expression of an intent, it is already reality.

Even in the US they are waking up. US magazine Foreign Policy says: The Trump administration is distracted by domestic disputes, anti-terrorism and conflicts with Russia, Iran and North Korea, world economies number 12, 29 and 113 – while “China is working hard to become number one”.

Hear, hear.

Until November 2016, the strategy of the US deep state, that ever more resembles a yapping puppy, has been to first try to defeat Russia and park them in the US empire like in 1991-2000 and next go after China. Mission completed (Pssss, in 2011 the US army was kicked out of Iraq, a 2-bit country.lol).

FP: “China has patience and thinks in the long term, where the US doesn’t have any patience”

China itself says it expects to be the #1 in 2050.

China: if somebody tries to disrupt our development, we will hit back, hit back hard.

Does China want to dominate the planet, like Soviet communism or Pax Americana?

Der Spiegel: no, it is more complicated than that. China still prefers to be prudent and avoid conflict and to not interfere in Palestine, Syria, Iran, Ukraine, etc. Chinese influence is not exerted with silly carriers but with economic infiltration: Hollywood gets ever more Chinese and makes more money in China then in the US; several large European football clubs are in Chinese hands. China has the most internet connections, smart phones. For 92 countries, China is the most important trading partner. China is the largest importer of raw materials and has the largest car market and installs the most solar and wind. China can compete with the US in AI. 1/3 of 1 billion+ startups are in China.

[part 1]

Cloggie on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 4:39 pm 



Intentions China

1. Geopolitics

Breaking US Naval supremacy in the Pacific. US chief of staff Joseph Dunford said in Congress that China will be the US biggest threat by 2025. China used South-Korea recently to set an example. Chinese proverb: kill the chicken (South-Korea) to induce fear in the monkey (USA). Issue: US stationing of missiles in SK. Blackmail: Lotte firm (look it up). SK backed down and no US missiles were installed.

New Silk Road ($900B) is proceeding swiftly. German FM Gabriel: you cannot blame the Chinese to have a strategy, we in the West should blame ourselves that we do not have a counter-strategy. He urges the West to come up with one (Clog: I have one, see below).

China is infiltrating in Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe; and in the UN with ever larger blue help contingents and surpressing of “human rights” issues. China wants to increase influence in WB and IMF. If it can’t increase its influence in Anglo dominated institutions, it simply creates its own institutions: SCO, “Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership”, “Asian Economic Development Bank”

2. Finance

China invests heavily in Western real estate. London, Frankfurt, Canada, US. China has trillions in reserves. Chinas buys strategic firms: Swiss agriculture, German robots, US household appliances. Chinese save a lot, 48% (Germany 27%). China has the 2nd most billionaires, after the US. In the top ten of female billionaires, 6 are Chinese. Until 2034 China will buy 6 jets per week, that is most of the combined Airbus/Boeing production.

3. Technology

Putin: “he who controls AI, controls the world”. Where westerner have great trouble telling the difference between two Chinese faces, computers can. Facial recognition is already big in China: “pay with a smile”. Airport gates, hotels, kindergarten. Commie China loves total IT control.

Napoleon: “China is a sleeping giant, Let him sleep, because when he wakes up, he will move the world.”

China no longer sleeps and it will move the world.

Clog Counter strategy: German FM Gabriel asks how can the West deal with the rising power of China. He deplores the West doesn’t have a counter strategy. He doesn’t give one and neither does Der Spiegel. Reason: both want to remain within the framework of “The West”, but a survival strategy is not possible within that cadre, because the US is on the path of demographic self-destruction, with Europe 15-20 years behind. Solution: Europe must abandon the Western framework and move over to Russia and create “The North”, but the timing is very important. That would be not too difficult in itself, since the rising European Right has a positie attitude towards Russia. The real crucial event that needs to be prevented is that the US deep state manages to keep control over the US and can prevent a balkanization. If a Russian-European alliance would have been formed in advance, that would automatically push the US in a alliance with China. Europe moving over to Russia can only happen after a thorough humiliation of the US by China or the onset of balkenization of the US, followed by a massive support of the secessionists from Washington by Greater Europe.

[part 2]

Cloggie on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 4:50 pm 



China reaffirms alliance with North-Korea.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/china-bekraeftigt-bindung-zu-nordkorea-a-1178399.html

onlooker on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 4:50 pm 



Clog, it really is boring your case for Europe or China, or even Makati with his constant US downfall rhetoric. Davy lashes out not wholly out of emotion but credibility as well. AP has it about right. This is GLOBAL, nobody is going to win, nobody is going to be last man standing. Nobody. From the link that AP provided https://medium.com/@FeunFooPermaKra/the-collapse-of-global-civilization-has-begun-b527c649754c
Collapse of GLOBAL Civilization has collapsed. Yes Global. You guys are like people fighting on the Titanic as it sunk.

onlooker on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 4:51 pm 



oops has begun

Davy on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 5:09 pm 



Dumb und dutchy, it is easy to be mislead when you are led by an agenda. You can’t tell reality from fantasy anymore. Everything has to be properly placed for your Eurotard Empire fantasy to work out and China is part
of that. The only reason you are a sinophile is your anti-Americanism. Otherwise you would be anti-Chinese. You are a disgrace to the truth and a lie to reality. It is so easy to neuter you because you maintain untenable positions of your side great and the other side a failure. Any person with a brain can see through that except other extremist hence the populism you extremist share. We are all going down together that is something you are in denial of.

Cloggie on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 5:25 pm 



Clog, it really is boring your case for Europe or China

Not sure if I follow you. I am absolutely not a China fan, but see the country as a dangerous dictatorship with, unfortunately, enormous potential, despite Davy’s efforts to talk China in a collapse.

Paradoxically, at the same time I am glad that the US can no longer dominate the world, because of the combined strength of Russia and China. The US deep state wants to wipe out European civilization via third world immigration and almost has succeeded in bringing the US to a tipping point.

So for me the choice between China and the US is like sailing between Scylla and Charybdis, I want neither to win.

Regarding your global collapse vision, I do not share the view that collapse is inevitable, you should not take apneaman too seriously.

Obviously I defend European interests and I do not want my civilization wiped out by the US deep state or overrun by China. My beacon of hope if post-Soviet Russia. And I see a lot of European-American resistance brewing in the US. Those are all positive developments.

Cloggie on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 5:33 pm 



US investors orders 430 Airbus A320 planes for $42B, the largest order in the history of Airbus.

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/airbus-wer-hinter-dem-rekordauftrag-steckt-a-1178194.html