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Page added on September 27, 2014

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In 2015, Imported Oil Will Make Up Just 21% of US Consumption

Consumption

Due to the highest level of domestic crude oil production in 45 years, oil imports will make up less than a quarter of U.S. consumption next year, according to a forecast by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

In August, “total U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.6 million barrels per day,” which was “the highest monthly production since July 1986,” according to EIA’s “Short Term Outlook,” which was released September 9th.

EIA expects domestic oil production to increase to an average 9.5 million barrels per day in 2015, which would be the highest level since before the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) oil embargo in 1973. At that time, the federal government placed a ban on exporting U.S.-produced oil abroad.

“If achieved, the 2015 forecast would be the highest annual average crude oil production since 1970,” the EIA forecast stated.

As a result, U.S. oil imports are expected to fall to just 21 percent of total domestic consumption in 2015, representing a 39 percent decrease over the past decade.

“The share of total U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption met by net imports fell from 60% in 2005 to an average of 32% in 2013. EIA expects the net import share to decline to 21% in 2015, which would be the lowest level since 1968,” EIA reported.

 

Net imports

Earlier this year, EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook predicted for the first time that the U.S. will be energy self-sufficient by 2037.

The surge in domestic oil production was made possible by horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques that make it economically feasible to extract large volumes of oil and natural gas from low-permeable shale, sandstone and limestone formations in more than 30 states, including the well-known Bakken, Marcellus and Eagle Ford formations in South Dakota, Pennsylvania and Texas, according to EIA.

Last year, Time magazine senior editor Bryan Walsh noted in an article entitled “Peak Oil is Dead” that environmentalists’ previous assertions that the worldwide production of oil had already “peaked” and entered an irreversible decline was wrong.

“Oil isn’t likely to peak any time soon,” he wrote. “And that’s bad news for climate policy.”

CNS News



13 Comments on "In 2015, Imported Oil Will Make Up Just 21% of US Consumption"

  1. Makati1 on Sat, 27th Sep 2014 5:52 am 

    US oil imports in 2013 = 2,821,480,000 bbls. (EIA stats)

    US oil consumption in 2013 = about 7,000,000,000 bbls. (EIA stats)

    My math tells me that imports are about 40% of US oil consumption in 2013.

    21% of consumption in 2013 would be 1,470,000,000 bbls.

    If that is correct, then we are going to see an increase in domestic production of about 1,350 million bbls (4 millions bbls/day) or a reduction of consumption of same or a combination of both. None of the options sound realistic. Unless the numbers for this year end up way lower than 2013.

    The EIA states that there will be an increase of ~900,000 bbls/day in 2015.
    That equals ~0.330 billion additional bbls for the year, not even close to the 1.350 billion increase needed to make their forecast accurate. But then, reality is not important, only continuing the charade.

    Yes, imports may dwindle to zero eventually, when the Us goes over the cliff and there is no demand.

  2. Norm on Sat, 27th Sep 2014 6:39 am 

    I’m trying to figure out how the cheerleader author has cooked the books this time. Probably the=shale oil produces old paint thinner (the condensates). Then they treat that as ‘oil production’ even though they had to dump it on an offshore market.

    Who prints this stuff, is it for the consumption of the sucker investors?

  3. Davy on Sat, 27th Sep 2014 6:57 am 

    ROBERT RAPIER reports:
    http://www.energytrendsinsider.com/2014/07/10/world-sets-new-oil-production-and-consumption-records/

    Highlights:
    The story of oil in 2013 was one of surging US production and increasing demand in developing countries. The US continues to lead the world in increasing oil production, while developing countries — in particular the Asia Pacific region — have added the vast majority of oil demand in recent years. Arguably the only thing preventing the world from experiencing oil prices in the $150-$200/bbl range is the continuing shale oil boom in the US.

    Global oil production advanced in 2013 by 557,000 barrels per day (bpd), reaching a new all-time high of 86.8 million bpd (an increase of 0.6 percent over 2012). After declining in 2009, global crude oil production has now increased 4 years in a row. But as I noted in last month’s short article, while global oil production did indeed set a new record, the US production increase alone was 1.1 million bpd. Thus, outside the US global production actually declined by 554,000 bpd.

    Steve Ludlum’s reports:
    http://www.economic-undertow.com/2013/08/11/triangle-of-mood/

    Highlights:
    The Triangle of Doom prediction chart updated to August prices (TFC Charts, click on for big): the high price of crude declines due to the decreasing solvency of crude consumers. At the same time, the cost of drilling increases steadily due to more difficult geology. According to the trend, in the near future — the end of next year — the amounts that customers can afford to pay for crude will be less than what drillers require to bring new crude- and crude substitutes to market. After that, there will be shortages as supplies are shut in.

    We see three things happening here with increasing American productions, falling world supply growth (less US), and growing Asian demand. Here we see the compression and convergence of economic utility because of cost of extraction and price of affordability. It is important to understand the compression of economic utility and economic necessity when substitution is not an option. There is just no alternative to oil in our growth based system at this point where time and resources are no longer available for transition. IMA in an overall state of diminishing returns at limit of growth with a global population in overshoot to carrying capacity.

  4. JuanP on Sat, 27th Sep 2014 7:55 am 

    Mak, I think you confused US oil consumption with US gasoline consumption. US oil consumption is more than twice the number you used.

  5. Makati1 on Sat, 27th Sep 2014 8:16 am 

    JuanP, this are my info EIA sources.

    Oil imports in 2013: Chart – 2010s – year 3 = 2,821,480,000 bbls.

    http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRIMUS1&f=A
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~
    US oil consumption in 2013: 18,490,220 bbls/day X 365 = 6,748,930,300 bbls.

    http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=US

  6. Nony on Sat, 27th Sep 2014 8:23 am 

    Maki, you’re confusing imports with net imports (we have some exports). The quote (read down in article) is referring to net imports.

  7. JuanP on Sat, 27th Sep 2014 9:08 am 

    Mak, i misread your comment. Thanks for the clarification. 😉

  8. rockman on Sat, 27th Sep 2014 9:21 am 

    And again I’ll highlight the intentional misrepresentation of what’s truly important to the US consumer by focusing on the bbl count and not the $’s. The US consumers don’t give a crap about how many bbl’s of oil are produced domestically or imported. They care about what they have to pay for their consumption. A cost that has escalated greatly during the US production “boom”.

    As I just pointed out elsewhere: just more smoke and mirrors to continue confusing the ignorant. Don’t take this as an insult amigos but engaging in such debates tends to give some credibility to the cronies. Sorta like debating with your 5 yo as to whether he can have ice cream for dinner every night. If you take the bait the brat has already won some leverage. LOL.

  9. Northwest Resident on Sat, 27th Sep 2014 9:58 am 

    Another problem is focusing on the bbl count and not the net energy made available to the economy. It used to be that an increase in barrels of oil burned was synonymous with a corresponding increase in energy made available to the economy. These days, with shale oil and biofuels mixed in with conventional crude, the average barrel of oil contains far less energy than it used to. An increase in bbl count these days does not necessarily equate to a corresponding increase in net energy for oil consumers. But sure, let’s keep counting the barrels so the Cornies have something to crow about.

  10. steve on Sat, 27th Sep 2014 10:44 am 

    Davy you hit the nail on the head….when I hear people say in 10 years this town is going to be huge, I just shake my head. I tell them that unless we discover another cheap replacement for oil the next 10 years will not look like the last…they look at wealth as a permanent thing..it will be interesting how the wealthy will try to hold on to their power when they see it slipping away….I had a friend who was on a ski slope lift when someone triggered an avalanche, the woman behind him almost ripped off his face trying to get ahead of him into the safety hut…Ironically I think it is the wealthy who are the most vulnerable because they depend on the “system” the most and have not prepared themselves mentally to live or be equal to the working class. When you live closer to the ground that is when you can hear that train coming….not when you are up in your penthouse on the 66 floor!

  11. Davy on Sat, 27th Sep 2014 12:24 pm 

    Steve, being a hybrid class person I know both classes well. I choose to live on a lower level because of my spirituality and lifestyle preferences but being part of a wealthy family I have the connection by blood and association. I was once a co-owner of a medium size company. I see a little of both aware and clueless among the rich. Some are very smart and savvy being self-made and hard workers. These guys have no illusions of the easy come easy go reality of business. Others are hopelessly lost with money being their only leg to stand on. Many of these people inherited money or got lucky in some way and have done nothing of substance ever in their life. These people will be dangerous because they will panic when spooked. Like deer along a road they can crash into you in unhealthy ways. They are the bunch that are the worst about entitlement to their money and position. They will be the ones who drop like rocks when the system implodes. The same is true of the poorer folks. There are some worthless tits who suck blood off others or the system. They will have little chance either. The difference between the two is the rich will fall much further than the already poor lower class.

  12. Makati1 on Sun, 28th Sep 2014 1:54 am 

    Nony, the headline talks about oil, but the bottom line talks about ‘moonshine’. Two different animals in the real world of energy.

    “…The share of total U.S. petroleum <<<<>>>> (my emphasis) consumption met by net imports fell from 60% in 2005 to an average of 32% in 2013. EIA expects the net import share to decline to 21% in 2015, which would be the lowest level since 1968,” EIA reported…”

    Bait ans switch … government style.

  13. Makati1 on Sun, 28th Sep 2014 1:55 am 

    Ooops! The words “and other liquids” disappeared from my comment. Should be between the s.

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