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Page added on May 12, 2017

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IEA to review oil demand outlook after China, India signal auto policy shifts

Consumption

The International Energy Agency will review its electric vehicle (EV) use and oil demand forecasts after India and China recently signaled new policies in favor of electric cars and vehicles using other alternatives to gasoline.

In its current policies scenario, last updated in November 2016, the IEA expects vehicle demand for oil to rise until 2040.

But after the world’s two fastest growing oil markets, China and India, indicated they are likely to take radical turns away from gasoline, the IEA says it will need to review its forecasts.

“We will therefore revisit our analysis of future EV market penetration on the basis of these new announcements for the next World Energy Outlook 2017, to be released on 14 November,” an IEA spokesman told Reuters.

In its “road map”, released in April, China said it wants alternative fuel vehicles to account for at least one-fifth of a projected 35 million annual vehicle sales by 2025.

India is considering even more radical action, with an influential government think-tank drafting a report in support of electrifying all vehicles in the country by 2032, according to government and industry sources.

“There has been further policy momentum in support of electric cars, in particular from China and India,” the IEA said.

The IEA says that China and India currently consume 11 percent and 2 percent of global gasoline demand respectively.

“The choices made by China and India are obviously most relevant for the possible future peak in passenger car oil demand,” the IEA said.

 

Reuters



17 Comments on "IEA to review oil demand outlook after China, India signal auto policy shifts"

  1. twocats on Fri, 12th May 2017 12:57 pm 

    Peak gasoline demand in 2040? If demand = consumption then that is waaaay off. People may not be fantasizing about gasoline as much after 2040. that’s a peak in demand sort of.

  2. Jerome Purtzer on Fri, 12th May 2017 2:01 pm 

    Let’s see, you have these long chain hydro carbons that took 100’s of millions of years to form and that we are just beginning to understand the thousands of applications for. What do we do? How about, Let’s burn them as fast as we find them. Make’s perfect sense.

  3. Boat on Fri, 12th May 2017 3:29 pm 

    Two cats,

    Remember, the world only needs enough electric cars to equal 1.2-1.6 Mbpd to equal normal demand. 2030 may be possible. In another 5-7 years the trends will be easier to see.

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  6. Outcast_Searcher on Fri, 12th May 2017 5:18 pm 

    Since India has been all about what is cheapest (i.e. building out their expanding electric grid with coal, because it’s cheap).

    So, I suspect it will be about economics for them. If EV’s do continue to become meaningfully cheaper as battery and green generation tech improve, then I’ll believe that they will follow through.

    The popular nano is only about $4,000 to 5,000 new in various Indian cities. So a $25,000 EV will still look VERY expensive to their middle class.

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