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Page added on February 13, 2018

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IEA: Surge In Global Oil Supply May Overtake Demand In 2018

Consumption

The rise in global oil production, led by the United States, is likely to outpace growth in demand this year, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.

The Paris-based IEA raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2018 to 1.4 million barrels per day, from a previous projection of 1.3 million bpd, after the International Monetary Fund upped its estimate of global economic growth for this year and next.

Oil demand grew at a rate of 1.6 million bpd in 2017, the IEA said in its monthly market report.

However, the rapid rise in output, particularly in the United States, could well outweigh any pick-up in demand and begin to push up global oil inventories, which are now within sight of their five-year average.

“Today, having cut costs dramatically, U.S. producers are enjoying a second wave of growth so extraordinary that in 2018 their increase in liquids production could equal global demand growth,” the IEA said.

“In just three months to November, (U.S.) crude output increased by a colossal 846,000 bpd and will soon overtake that of Saudi Arabia. By the end of this year, it might also overtake Russia to become the global leader.”

U.S. crude output could reach 11 million bpd by the end of this year, according to estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with other exporters such as Russia, have agreed to maintain a joint restriction on crude supply for a second year running in 2018, to force inventories to drain and support prices.

Oil inventories across the world’s richest nations fell by 55.6 million barrels in December to 2.851 billion barrels, their steepest one-month drop since February 2011, the IEA said.

For 2017 as a whole, inventories fell by 154 million barrels, or at a rate of 420,000 bpd. By the year-end they were only 52 million barrels above the five-year average, with stocks of oil products below that benchmark, the IEA said.

“With the surplus having shrunk so dramatically, the success of the output agreement might be close to hand. This, however, is not necessarily the case: oil price rises have come to a halt and gone into reverse, and, according to our supply/demand balance, so might the decline in oil stocks, at least in the early part of this year.”

Oil production outside OPEC nations fell by 175,000 bpd in January to 58.6 million bpd, but was still 1.3 million bpd higher than January last year, predominantly because of the 1.3-million-bpd year-on-year increase in U.S. output.

OPEC output was largely steady at 32.16 million bpd in January and compliance with the supply deal reached 137 percent, due in part to declines in Venezuela, where economic crisis has paralysed much of the country’s oil production capacity.

The IEA estimates demand for OPEC’s crude in 2018 will average 32.3 million bpd, after dropping to 32.0 million in the first quarter of the year.

The IEA said oil prices, which briefly touched a high of $71 a barrel in January, could be supported even if U.S. production rises, provided global growth remains strong, or if unplanned supply outages persist.

“If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself,” the IEA said.

RIGZONE



118 Comments on "IEA: Surge In Global Oil Supply May Overtake Demand In 2018"

  1. MASTERMIND on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 5:26 pm 

    If global growth remains strong?

    Global Economic Growth GDP Per Capita (1.3%)
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG

    1 percent is considered strong growth now?

  2. Outcast_Searcher on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 7:23 pm 

    Mastermind, how about trying something more current and realistic?

    3.7% is pretty decent growth.

    http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

    https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/01/11/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2018

  3. Boat on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 7:25 pm 

    MM

    Learn to Google,peer reviewed,master mind, degree boy. Lol Try adding by year for a more historical perspective.

  4. Davy on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 7:37 pm 

    outcast don’t show neder those IMF GDP numbers by region. He will have a cow with Europe in last place with 2%. LOL.

  5. MASTERMIND on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 7:52 pm 

    Outcast

    Your GDP numbers aren’t adjusted for inflation. The numbers I quoted are though. Your mistake shows how uneducated you are.

    Global Economic Growth GDP Per Capita (1.3%)
    https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG

  6. Davy on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 8:03 pm 

    we have a 2017 number and a 2016 number. We have an IMF number and a world bank number. Is that an cucumber to cucumber comparison.

  7. Anonymouse1 on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 8:08 pm 

    More like a dumbass to retard comparison exceptionalist, to answer your (dumbass) cucumber question. You v. boatretard. He has a clear edge in the retard category, while you have pulled ahead in the deluslusional, stark raving mad dept.

    Yes, its a dumbass to retard comparison, definitely.

  8. JuanP on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 8:09 pm 

    Micromind (or Imaginary Neuron as I call him inside my head) keeps repeating the same comments and posting the same links over and over again like a broken record. He exhibits very clear symptoms of insanity.

  9. Davy on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 8:12 pm 

    mouse you are so handy to have around to explain stupid with stupid.

  10. MASTERMIND on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 8:15 pm 

    Here are four peer reviewed scientific studies authored by top experts that prove beyond any reasonable doubt that global civilization will collapse within the next decade.

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615
    https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3574335/
    http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/MSSI-ResearchPaper-4_Turner_2014.pdf

    Simple really….when the World Economy Collapses everything shuts down…the end… We’re talking about grids down all over the world and 7.5B people dropping like f*** flies in short order. The collapse will be absolutely horrible..There is no collapse or horror movie ever produced that has even come close to imagining what the collapse of BAU might look like. I’m talking about every corporation and every social program going bankrupt at once. I’m talking about people eating people. I’m talking about the Worst Catastrophe to ever happen in the history of mankind. Nothing has ever, or will ever come close….

  11. MASTERMIND on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 8:18 pm 

    The End of the Oil Age is Imminent!

    Recently, the HSBC oil report stated that 80% of conventional oil fields were declining at a rate of 5-7% per year. This means that there will be an oil shortage of ~30 million barrels per day by 2030 and ~40 million barrels per day by 2040.
    http://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017

    What is mentioned far less often is that annual oil discoveries have lagged annual production since the 1980s.
    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt

    Now, this problem has nothing to do with the recent decline in the oil price, which started in 2014. This has been an on-going problem for the past 30 years. Now, the IEA is predicting oil shortages by ~2020 due to declining exploration.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Here, the IEA blames this problem on the low oil price. But, this problem started in the 1980s. The problem is geological: we are running out of conventional cheap oil. Shale and tar sands are not the answer, either. Those resources are far too expensive, compared to conventional oil, because the global economy is based on cheap conventional oil. Expensive oil is not a replacement for cheap oil.

    Based upon the HSBC report and the IEA, the End of Oil Age will start around ~2020: there will be a dramatic economic depression due to exhaustion of cheap oil. This will cause a global economic collapse.

  12. MASTERMIND on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 8:19 pm 

    Existing oil reserves are scheduled to begin a catastrophic crash within 1 to 3 years. When it hits the economic and social damage will be catastrophic. The end of Western Civilization, from China to Europe, to the US, will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently….

    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt
    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v481/n7382/full/481433a.html
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421509001281
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151300342X
    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016236114010254
    http://www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/energy/the_challenges/peak_oil.html
    http://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/Peak%20Oil_Study%20EN.pdf
    http://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017

  13. LetStupidPeopleDie on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 9:25 pm 

    This websitge sucls

  14. GregT on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 9:28 pm 

    This websitge sucls.

    As society continues to unravel, expect this websitge to continue to sucl even more.

  15. Cloggie on Tue, 13th Feb 2018 10:26 pm 

    “IEA: Surge In Global Oil Supply May Overtake Demand In 2018”

    ***BREAKING ***

    Yesterday-night peak-oil hero Richard “the party is over” Heinberg, appeared in front of the camera’s and with tears in his eyes offered the world an apology for his erroneous predictions, made a decade ago, about the dvelopment of global oil supply.

    He was seconded by what appeared to be a peer-reviewed intern of the Post-Carbon Institute, who, equiped with a degree in chemistry, economy or just a kindergarten diploma, that wasn’t entirely clear, who hastened to add that peak oil remained a dire problem, as witnessed by a couple of 2010 articles he waved with and that he was going to rape Taylor Swift anyway.

    /fakenews

  16. print baby print on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 1:13 am 

    I also rest my case . The shale oil is a miracle which will last for decades or centuries. I was wrong about peak oil there is no such a thing. The growth will continue enjoy everybody

  17. Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 3:35 am 

    We know we have the oil resource out there in the form of unconventionals. We see renewables coming on along with improvements to batteries. We may succeed in changing some behavior with the new generation in regards to demand management and consumption behaviors. Many young people are concerned about the environment and climate. The card in the hole and not known is the economy.

    Here we see clearly we are in a brave new world of rapid change. Somewhat coordinated central bank financial management that is a reflection of a shaky geopolitical system of competitive cooperation glues us together. We are getting along but just barely. No side is a dominant power now with the advent of China and Asian growth. The west has declined but the west can’t be eclipsed and the reason is the process that got us here. The just-in-time of global competitive advantage can only adapt so much. It is actually very brittle at least in regards to the foundational aspects of the system. The financial system is vitally important to confidence. All regions are cross invested in the others. I mentioned this in regards to oil because it takes wealth to produce oil these days where in the past oil created wealth. Now it takes wealth to maintain the vital foundational energy resource. Gas has come on strong which has helped. Now we have renewables further making inroads. Yet, these are also businesses just like the new world of oil.

    This is optimistic on one level but on another level ominous. Whenever you base a lifestyle on being wealthy you are at risk of what happens when you lose that wealth. The global system is now so committed to being affluent it can’t downsize. We are taking on new people and in addition many new people are aspiring and demanding affluence. We have new and deadly problems demanding affluence to solve or mitigate. I would call this a trap because it is but it does not feel like one yet. It feels normal like a frog boil.

    We look around us and see the wonders of the modern world. Yet, we look around in fear. Many people who are wealthy have the fear of the end of affluence. Smart ones put away for the possibility. I ask where are we putting away? We are not and this is global. We are running in place and we are extending and pretending hard decisions. It is apparent there is little we can do about unfunded promises. The climate is destabilizing. The climate is a natural affluence that when gone will become a liability. The natural ecosystems of the world are in decline or localized failure. Socially we are not getting along well considering the challenges of what I just mentioned.

    Ample oil supply is contingent now upon this brittle arrangement. Where once oil gushed out of the ground to support a new and fantastic potential we now have oil that must be mined in difficult business arrangements. We have a society that must maintain confidence to allow the liquidity that comes from economic activity to drive this business activity. These are systematic conditions that are required in addition to the geologic. Systematic arrangements are not like business or the resource because they are abstract and ephemeral. They involve human nature and narratives. So any one crowing about how much oil there is or all this renewable tech that will transform the world might eat crow at any time.

    We are dangerously close to the cliff at multiple levels but many act like it is not there. “Oh the cliff” “that’s just normal”. Like the person with an illness they are in denial of. All kinds of dysfunctions today telling us it’s normal. We are no longer normal with vast changes that have yet to truly solidify into a new sustainable way of life. True sustainability accompanied by an associated resilience is not what we have today. What we have today is linear growth bumping up against limits on a cyclical planet. It is unknown how much further this multidimensional systematic arrangement can continue. No way to know. The resilience is in this new normal is linear growth and we know what that means on a finite planet.

    I have seen many wealthy people resilient until the money runs out. Others that had a plan B sometimes thrive once radical changes confront them. We don’t have the wisdom of a plan B. It is all about MOAR when it should be about reflection upon the plan B of limits. The sad part of all this is the hole card is not a trump card and all the best cards are out already. There are no trump cards in real life. Every gambler knows that to lose is what you’re really there for. Entropy always wins in the end. https://tinyurl.com/y9l9shv4

  18. Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 4:45 am 

    “The Brutal Truth About Violence When The SHTF”
    https://tinyurl.com/y86n9m8b

    “the thing that is important for readers is that we were a modern society one day, and then in few weeks it turned into carnage. Do not make the mistake of saying “it cannot happen here” because I made that mistake too. Do not underestimate power of propaganda, fear, hate, and the lowest human instincts, no matter how modern and good your society is right now and how deeply you believe that “it can not happen here”.

    “Who were the most likely victims? A very simple answer would be that the most likely victims were people who had interesting things without enough defense. But it was not always that simple. People who were alone were a pretty easy target and old people without support of family or friends. It was not always about killing someone or violence. For example, if you were alone and without resources but you had something else valuable like some kind of skill or knowledge you could easily be “recruited” for some faction or group, not by your will of course. Do not be interesting (or attract attention) when the SHTF. Do not look like a target. Your home should look ordinary. Your defense should be based on more subtle means. Think about what survival is! Survival is about staying alive, it is not about being comfortable at the expense of losing your life. I have seen many times people lose their lives simply because they were too attached to their belongings (house, car, land, goods…) so they simply did not want to leave something and run in a particular moment. Everything can be earned and bought again except life. Forget about statements like “I will defend it with my life” or “over my dead body” or similar because the real SHTF is usually not heroic or noble. It is hard and brutal. When you are gone you are gone and there might be nobody to take care of your family just because you have been stubborn or trusted in movies when it came to violence. To rephrase it: Be ready to leave your home in a split second if that means you and your family will survive, no matter how many good things you have stored there. Be mentally ready for violence. In a way, it is impossible to be ready for violence, especially widespread violence when the SHTF, but you can minimize shock when that happens with some things. If you are not familiar with what violence is, you can try to get yourself close” to it today (in normal times). It can be done, for example, by doing some voluntary work for example in a local hospital, ER or similar… or simply by working with homeless people. Have means and skills (physically) to defend – or to do violence.

    “There are no super heroes when SHTF, and if some of them show up they end up dead quickly. There is only you and your skills and mindset and what you prepared. Use violence as a last resort because of the simple fact that by using violence you are risking of getting killed or hurt. Remember when SHTF there is maybe no doctor or hospital to take care of your wound. It is a time when even a small cut can eventually kill you through infection and lack of proper care…When should you use violence? Contrary to some popular beliefs in the prepper community, the point is to use violence only as a last solution. The reason is as I mentioned already, the risk that you can be hurt or killed too, but also once you do violence you change your own rules, or push it more forward, and it is easy to get lost in violence. There are consequences to that, and you are not going to be the same person ever again. Violence is a tool, not a toy. You need to know how to use it as best as possible, but also to avoid using it when it is not necessary. It is a good idea to set up a clear set of rules (mentally too) when you are gonna use violence and to try to stick to it. For example you will use weapon if someone tries to break your home and attack you, and you need to be ready to do that without hesitation.”

  19. Anonymouse1 on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 4:47 am 

    Someone pretend to read dumbass’s synApsis. He is chronically depressed, and delusional, so having someone pretend to read his rambling walls-of-text is one of the few things he has left. It will really make his day.

  20. makati1 on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 5:02 am 

    Anon, it would be like mucking out a stable after a long winter. Deep shit everywhere and the stink would be awful. Been there done that. Idaho, 1968.

    I never read his bullshit anymore. He is not worth my time. A nobody pretending to be somebody. A 3rd world goat herder. Nothing more.

  21. Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 5:09 am 

    This is friggin great. I have billy and his twink friend are all hot and bothered. I ask you dumbasses this constantly “CAN YOU ACTUALLY SAY SOMETHING”? Billy thinks he is but he just copies and pastes the same old links with a one liner like “slip sliding” or “put that mad dog down”. He is also found of talking about himself and how long he will live. There is also the fantasy farm stuff going on now for 6 years. You know the 100tons of stuff being trucked there for the jungle citadel. The twink just stalk and pricks and enables like his other west coast Canadian dumbass cousin. The twink regurgitates his Jew baiting or anti-American extremism but it is always the same old drab fare with some goofy millennial dialect of dumbass. LOL

  22. MASTERMIND on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 9:01 am 

    Davy

    Chevron CEO warns US shale oil alone cannot meet the world’s growing demand for crude

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/01/us-shale-cannot-meet-the-worlds-growing-oil-demand-chevron-ceo-warns.html

    Shale can’t make up for all the world declining conventional fields! Jesus you are a fucking idiot! I have posted about a billion links showing this! Maybe if you would stop blathering 1700 word salads you would realize this.

  23. Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 9:29 am 

    Mm, how many times do you need to reference these links? Do you have a manic mental deal going on where you feel pressured to make sure everyone knows how right you are? What this actually does is make you look stupid. Empty links are an example of a stupid comment. If you are so smart highlight the important point in your comment and stop the reference packing, dumbass. Geeze, you criticize my world salad, fine but my lord your friggen multiple and repetitive comments are a sign you are not right.

  24. MASTERMIND on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 10:07 am 

    Davy

    I don’t know what empty links means? You keep saying that and I don’t think it means what you think it means!

    And good luck defending your farm without the rule of law and a prosperous society in place.

  25. MASTERMIND on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 10:09 am 

    Davy

    The End of the Oil Age is Imminent!

    Recently, the HSBC oil report stated that 80% of conventional oil fields were declining at a rate of 5-7% per year. This means that there will be an oil shortage of ~30 million barrels per day by 2030 and ~40 million barrels per day by 2040.
    http://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017

    What is mentioned far less often is that annual oil discoveries have lagged annual production since the 1980s.
    https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt

    Now, this problem has nothing to do with the recent decline in the oil price, which started in 2014. This has been an on-going problem for the past 30 years. Now, the IEA is predicting oil shortages by ~2020 due to declining exploration.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000

    Here, the IEA blames this problem on the low oil price. But, this problem started in the 1980s. The problem is geological: we are running out of conventional cheap oil. Shale and tar sands are not the answer, either. Those resources are far too expensive, compared to conventional oil, because the global economy is based on cheap conventional oil. Expensive oil is not a replacement for cheap oil.

    Based upon the HSBC report and the IEA, the End of Oil Age will start around ~2020: there will be a dramatic economic depression due to exhaustion of cheap oil. This will cause a global economic collapse.

    There buddy I summarized it for ya because I know you are to scared to read it for yourself and learn.

  26. GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 10:16 am 

    “Someone pretend to read dumbass’s synApsis. He is chronically depressed, and delusional, so having someone pretend to read his rambling walls-of-text is one of the few things he has left. It will really make his day.”

    Probably the same diatribe that he’s been regurgitating over the past several years. One really has to wonder where he finds the time to write daily seven paragraph long word salads, on an iPhone yet.

    The guy really needs to find something meaningful to do with his life.

  27. MASTERMIND on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 10:35 am 

    Greg

    I don’t understand why Davy does that? He talks himself out of the deal..He is most likely depressed! I mean who the hell wants to work and live on a farm in the 21st century!

  28. Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 10:40 am 

    Hard to respect stinky! Lol, greggie, you are such a pathetic whining loser but the other loser billyt, sure appreciates your comment blocking. Without you the old guy would really be out of luck. I do have to say your gang is pretty lame. The proud greggie, the twink, and greyhair none of whom can say anything of substance is not much of a force. mm, kicks your ass daily. He laughs in your face as you turn even more pissed.

  29. Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 10:43 am 

    Sharpening my stihl ms440 with 24” bar as we speak. Greggie your the one with no life. You sponge off the pathologist wife. She will wise up one day and realize she is married to a limp dick.

  30. GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 10:52 am 

    “He is most likely depressed! I mean who the hell wants to work and live on a farm in the 21st century!”

    No doubt about the depression. That much is obvious. There’s no way that the guy lives on a farm though. He’s got way too much free time on his hands. More than likely institutionalized somewhere.

  31. Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 11:02 am 

    stinky, I think your depressed I pegged you as a useless stalking prick with writers block. Ha BTW, where is your daddy love?

  32. GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 11:16 am 

    “And good luck defending your farm without the rule of law and a prosperous society in place.”

    If you believe in his story, he says that he’s camped out in a little cabin on his grandpa’s multi-billion dollar estate, co-habitating with goats, that his loving wife and children live in a town over an hours drive away, and his parents fly back and forth to their retreat in the Bahamas, in the family private jet.

    It’s difficult to imagine the level of psychosis required to spin such a fantastic tale, but in any event, I’m sure that he’ll be well taken care of by the nice people in the white outfits, with the little name tags on their pockets.

  33. KillAllMaginaAndBetaCuck on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 11:38 am 

    Davy is a mentally sexual deviant loser that suck STD’S infected dick for a living.

  34. MASTERMIND on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 11:46 am 

    City of London financiers contemplate “imminent” 2018 US stock market crash of up to “50%”

    Coming dramatic decline of US stock prices would trigger global recession, finds grim forecast to be explored at roundtable hosted by British financial services think-tank

    The warning of a forty to fifty percent drop points to the prospect of a global financial crash worse than the 2008 banking collapse.

    https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/city-of-london-financiers-contemplate-imminent-2018-us-stock-market-crash-of-up-to-fifty-ed217752428

    Reply

  35. Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 12:10 pm 

    stinky, are you having a bad day trying to clean the stink out of your fingernails? LOL. I believe your story that you are a stalking pricking dumbass because that is the reality behind your commenting here. We know you like dick too because you wanted mine, you pervert. We know you are a 1% played that the Hongcouver housing casino which is a crime against who knows how many poor Chinese. These poor people were fleece of their investments to subsidize Canadian schmucks like you. Do I need to go on because there is lots more?

  36. Davy on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 12:11 pm 

    “KillAllMaginaAndBetaCuck” mm, it is not hard to figure out dirty socks. LOL

  37. GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 2:23 pm 

    “The warning of a forty to fifty percent drop points to the prospect of a global financial crash worse than the 2008 banking collapse.”

    Good find MM. Those who get the timing just right, will profit handsomely.

  38. rockman on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 2:27 pm 

    Oil demand, above all else, is a function of economic vitality and the price of oil. Even in the most robust economy $150/bbl oil will decrease demand…eventually. In a weak economy oil falling from $100/bbl to $35/bbl will lead to increased demand (aka consumption)…eventually. Lower oil prices will lead to less drilling which brings less oil to the market place…eventually. Higher oil prices will lead to more drill and increased production…eventually.

    The difficulty many have in appreciate the dynamic at is the TIME LAGS involved. Time lags that can take many months but more often years to play out. Especially when they focus on the oil futures markets which can change significantly in matter of weeks.

    Then add the often complications to the normal time lags such as economic/political policies such as quantitative easing is an unconventional monetary policy in which a central bank purchases government securities or other securities from the market in order to lower interest rates and increase the money supply. This also includes increasing production in order to increase revenue during low oil price periods.

    Appreciating the entire process becomes all the more difficult when so many “experts” focus on a single component instead of the complete dynamic.

  39. Cloggie on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 2:41 pm 

    City of London financiers contemplate “imminent” 2018 US stock market crash of up to “50%”

    So what. It happened in 1987 and the following nineties were great.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

  40. Harquebus on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 3:39 pm 

    If it wasn’t for the large amounts of debt facilitated by the creation of fiat currency, there wouldn’t be a shale industry. Not just for the purpose of production but, also for governments, business and private sectors to continue consumption.
    When the credit cards stop working, everything stops and when the trucks stop moving then, we will see the end of the world as we know it.
    For the natural world, civilization collapse can’t come soon enough which, also happens to be humanity’s best hope for survival.

  41. Boat on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 4:00 pm 

    Thank god for fiat money then. We need those trucks.

  42. Boat on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 4:10 pm 

    It is interesting that the avg growth for oil per year since 1950 is around 1.3 mbpy. Average the decades and the result is similar. There are a few ups and downs due to a variety of inputs but growth over time is remarkably steady.

  43. Harquebus on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 4:11 pm 

    Something that I just came across and supports my previous statement.

    “Total household debt rose by $193 billion to an all-time high of $13.15 trillion at year-end 2017 from the previous quarter, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data report released Tuesday.”
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/13/total-us-household-debt-soars-to-record-above-13-trillion.html

    Debt can only delay the effects of diminishing energy returns. The future, from which we have borrowed, is knocking at the door and demanding payment.

  44. MASTERMIND on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 4:46 pm 

    Clogg

    The following 90’s also had 19 dollar an average price for a barrel of oil..The global economy wont run on high oil prices. That is why all countries are going so far into debt to substitute. Soon the world will face cascading defaults!

  45. GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 4:48 pm 

    “For the natural world, civilization collapse can’t come soon enough which, also happens to be humanity’s best hope for survival.”

    It’s simply amazing how many people refuse to understand this.

  46. Boat on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 5:05 pm 

    Here is how it works. Me first, then family, then town/city, then state, then country, then continent, then allied country’s, the rest go before we worry about humanity. Gotta have survivors.
    If you need to die for the sake of humanity….get-er-done. Try not to leave a mess.

  47. makati1 on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 5:08 pm 

    Greg, I have also observed that in my family and friends. Denial or just plain ignorance. Perhaps greed fits in there somewhere also. Most seem to want BAU to continue to the end, even if it means the end is total and sooner. I cheer the collapse on as it is humanities last hope to survive into the 22nd century.

  48. GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 5:22 pm 

    Here is how it works Boat.

    No healthy natural environment, no countries, no states, no town/cities, no families, no humanity, and one hell of a mess left in the aftermath.

  49. GregT on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 5:25 pm 

    “I cheer the collapse on as it is humanities last hope to survive into the 22nd century.”

    Agreed. If we can’t leave something behind for future generations, what’s the point of living and dying in the first place.

  50. MASTERMIND on Wed, 14th Feb 2018 5:29 pm 

    Greg

    Collapse is not best for the future..You are assuming the nuke plants don’t melt down or there isnt a massive nuclear holocaust! when society collapses that is it for all humans! We go extinct like the dinosaurs!

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