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Page added on November 14, 2017

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Growth in Electric Vehicles Won’t Dent Oil Demand Much

Consumption

Amid an anticipated increase in electric vehicles during the next 20 years, the world’s appetite for oil is still expected to wane just a bit, as demand for transportation including petrochemicals continues, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.

An estimated 50 million vehicles will be in operation by 2025 and 300 million by 2040, versus about 2 million currently, the IEA said. But that’s expected to reduce global demand by just 2.5 million barrels a day, or roughly 2 percent, by then.

The U.S. will be a major player in global oil and gas markets for years as the shale industry boom transforms into the largest supply increase ever, the agency said in its annual World Energy Outlook. The cycle will change the U.S. into a net exporter of fossil fuels, with growth in U.S. oil production hitting that accomplished by Saudi Arabia at its peak, it said.

The Paris-based IEA said it had trimmed its longer-term oil-price estimates from 2016, in part due to the declining cost of conventional and renewable energy sources, global efforts to curb climate change, and the boom in U.S. shale oil and gas production.

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It is now calling for oil to run $83 a barrel in 2025, compared to its prior $101-a-barrel call, and to $111 in 2040 from its previous $125 estimate. World consumption will just top $100 million barrels of oil daily by 2025.

From this year to 2040, the world’s solar power capability will show larger annual increases than any other energy source, with a yearly average expansion of almost 70 gigawatts, the IEA said.

“Solar is forging ahead in global power markets as it becomes the cheapest source of electricity generation in many places, including China and India,” Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said in a release. “Electric vehicles are in the fast lane as a result of government support and declining battery costs but it is far too early to write the obituary of oil, as growth for trucks, petrochemicals, shipping and aviation keep pushing demand higher.”

“The U.S. becomes the undisputed leader for oil and gas production for decades, which represents a major upheaval for international market dynamics,” Birol added.

The Drive



22 Comments on "Growth in Electric Vehicles Won’t Dent Oil Demand Much"

  1. makati1 on Tue, 14th Nov 2017 5:33 pm 

    I love these fantasy articles written for a paycheck. Pure bullshit.

  2. Davy on Tue, 14th Nov 2017 5:42 pm 

    “Electric vehicles are in the fast lane as a result of government support and declining battery costs but it is far too early to write the obituary of oil, as growth for trucks, petrochemicals, shipping and aviation keep pushing demand higher.”

    Yea, it is a joke to write the obituary on oil because electric cars don’t have the right stuff. They are more fake green techno optimism like we hear out of dumb n dutch daily.

  3. Boat on Tue, 14th Nov 2017 7:43 pm 

    Davy, Forget cars, it’s time to move on the electric truck. You lost on the wind argument, lost on the solar argument, lost on the crash argument, lost on the EV argument. So tell me Davy, wadda ya think of the electric truck?

  4. Davy on Tue, 14th Nov 2017 7:47 pm 

    Well boat, if they happen I don’t want to be on the road. BTW, do you have any references for those bold statements, otherwise you are talking out your ass which you do as much as dumb n Dutch.

  5. Sissyfuss on Tue, 14th Nov 2017 8:03 pm 

    Davy it seems that Boaty is stating that all those arguments are now settled with nothing left to worry about. He needs more education. Perhaps if he read that most informative newspaper out of the Netherlands, The Dumb N Dutch Dailey, he might be more cognisant of world affairs. At the least he could keep up with the latest Nazi developments.

  6. GregT on Tue, 14th Nov 2017 10:15 pm 

    “Davy, Forget cars, it’s time to move on the electric truck. You lost on the wind argument, lost on the solar argument, lost on the crash argument, lost on the EV argument.
    So tell me Davy, wadda ya think of the electric truck?”

    Good job Boat. Even you, the lowest, of the lowest common denominator, kicked the delusionalist’s ass. Not that it took that much effort. 🙂

  7. GregT on Tue, 14th Nov 2017 10:18 pm 

    “Davy it seems that Boaty is stating that all those arguments are now settled with nothing left to worry about.”

    Boaty may be extremely dumb, but at least he isn’t emotionally and psychological disturbed, like the delusionalist.

  8. Boat on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 12:29 am 

    Sissy, Of course it’s settled except for the members of the flat earth society.

  9. GregT on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 12:52 am 

    “Sissy, Of course it’s settled except for the members of the flat earth society.”

    The delusionalist has nothing on you Boat. You round Earther you.

  10. Cloggie on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 2:37 am 

    Davy it seems that Boaty is stating that all those arguments are now settled with nothing left to worry about. He needs more education. Perhaps if he read that most informative newspaper out of the Netherlands, The Dumb N Dutch Dailey, he might be more cognisant of world affairs. At the least he could keep up with the latest Nazi developments.

    Do you have a refuge in Italy as well, Sissy, just like Davy has, in case things go wrong? Perhaps you can share Dave’s appartement high in the Dolomites and the rent. Or will you stay and bravely fight on the side of the “globalists” against the “evil nahtzees” and achieve that desired socialism of yours?

    Davy the Weasel has already decided on whose side he will fight: neither. That would be “extremist” and he is glad he is not like that.

  11. peakyeast on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 3:35 am 

    With sales of e-vehicles that just exceed 0.2% of sold vehicles in Denmark I must admit the rocket has really taken off for electrics.

  12. Cloggie on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 3:52 am 

    https://electrek.co/2017/07/04/electric-car-norway-tesla-model-x/

    Electric cars reach record 42% of Norway’s total new car sales with boost from Tesla Model X.

    Lift-off, we have a lift-off!

  13. peakyeast on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 7:33 am 

    Lets see how they will do in Norway without almost being handed out for free to the population using their accumulated wealth from the Northsea.

    Denmark had a good looking start in sales of e-vehicles – until the subsidies were reduced.

  14. Cloggie on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 8:03 am 

    Without subsidized Danish wind energy, said energy form would not have matured.

    Likewise the Norwegian initiative will help the emerging e-vehicle industrie to mature.

    You should know these things, peaky.

  15. Davy on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 8:11 am 

    “Likewise the Norwegian initiative will help the emerging e-vehicle industrie to mature.”
    LMFAO, do you have a WordPress for the size of the Norwegian car industry potential for all types of vehicles?

    You should know these things, dutchy.

  16. Davy on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 8:25 am 

    “What Tesla’s Big Rig Must Do to Seduce Truckers”
    http://tinyurl.com/y83voqzp

    “Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk has promised to unveil an electric semi truck on Thursday that will drive like a sports car and beat its diesel counterpart in a tug of war. “This will blow your mind clear out of your skull and into an alternate dimension,” he wrote on Twitter this week. But none of that really matters. Unlike the U.S. market for luxury sedans and SUVs, where Tesla has been able to succeed against stylish, high-priced rivals with stylish, high-priced electric vehicles, truck drivers and delivery fleets need to make money with their big rigs. It’s an unglamorous and ultralow-margin business in which one factor matters above all else: cost. And the truck market is huge. In North America alone, the largest heavy duty freight trucks—Class 8 semis—account for about $30 billion in sales each year, or more than 250,000 new trucks, according to industry data tracked by Bloomberg.”

    “Batteries are the single most expensive component of an electric truck, and the battery of a cross-country hauler could cost $100,000 even before they build the truck around it, according to prices tracked by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The sticker price of any electric truck, regardless of size, is going to be higher than its diesel equivalent because of those costly batteries.”

    “Pairing smaller batteries with an accelerated charging technology, such as an upgraded Supercharger or a battery-swap program, would bring down costs and make it easier to compete with diesel rigs. But that, too, would come at a cost. Fast charging incurs what the electric utilities call demand charges—significantly higher commercial rates for power hogs—which could wipe out much of the fuel savings promised by an electric truck. Another option would be for Tesla to lease the trucks or even just the batteries, to spread the sticker price over several years. The other source of potential savings to trucking companies is the maintenance, which costs roughly 19 cents per mile driven in a standard diesel truck, according to company data compiled by Bloomberg. Electric vehicles don’t need oil and fluid changes, and the brakes won’t need to be replaced as often because of regenerative brakes that convert kinetic energy into stored battery power. The chart above reduces maintenance costs by about a third for electric trucks. However, there’s no way to know for sure how to assess the maintenance savings until more electric trucks are on the road.”

  17. Sissyfuss on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 9:31 am 

    That would be Green Socialism, Clogkadiddlehoffer. And no, even though I am half Sicilian Europe holds no allure. I am focusing on a cabin in some of the most undeveloped hinterlands of the US Canadian border to spend my dotage. And like this website I will have plenty of squirrels to share my musings with.

  18. peakyeast on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 5:46 pm 

    @Cloggie: You are right – that must be why there are no sales after the incentives has been removed. Because the car industry matured. 😉

    I think it is being realized that subsidies wont do it. Too expensive – too slow. Instead the politicians changes strategy to producing enough problems for ICE to make EVs look good in comparison.

    Perhaps this is the way to scale down energy intensity in society without actually telling people that. Could be…

    But it could be cool with supercapacitor like batteries as Henrik Fisker is promising in a few years. If they get dirt cheap … of which there is little chance – then perhaps it may actually make a difference.

    Btw. I value and read your contributions here on PO – even though I hardly ever write. Thanks for being here.

  19. Cloggie on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 6:18 pm 

    Thanks peaky, it is important that small countries stick together, not to get snowed under by the big ones.lol

    https://youtu.be/ELD2AwFN9Nc

    But I will reduce/stop my posting as of Monday, when I will start working again. Demanding client.

  20. Anonymouse1 on Wed, 15th Nov 2017 8:44 pm 

    Lying for zion is demanding work indeed, isn’t it cloggen-kike?

    Feel free to reduce your post count to say, ZERO. No one would mind (or care). Now off you go cloggen-stein.

  21. Kenz300 on Thu, 16th Nov 2017 9:53 am 

    The future is electric.
    No noise. No emissions.
    Electric cars, electric trucks, electric bikes and scooters.

  22. Cloggie on Sat, 18th Nov 2017 12:43 am 

    VW to invest 34 billion in e-mobility and self-driving cars until 2022:

    http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/volkswagen-stoesst-wandel-zur-e-mobilitaet-an-a-1178639.html

    More than 80 e-models until 2025.

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