Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
Page added on August 26, 2012
JEDDAH – Global energy demand will rise by an average annual rate of 1.2 percent a year through 2030, when the world will be using almost 35 percent more energy than it did in 2005, ExxonMobil said in its “Outlook for Energy : A View to 2030”.
Though economic growth drives energy demand, the projected rate of energy-demand growth is less than half the rate of global GDP growth 2.7 percent through 2030 as a result of expected gains in energy efficiency, the report noted. It further expected that the world’s population will rise from 6.7 billion today to almost 8 billion, will not only create new demands for energy for personal needs such as fuels for cars and electricity for homes, but also energy that is consumed “indirectly” – the energy that serves the broader society and economy.
Together, population and economic growth through 2030 will continue to drive global energy demand higher, it added. Through 2030, the economies of non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, while still relatively smaller, will grow at a much faster rate than those of the OECD. By 2030, these developing economies will have reached close to 60 percent of OECD economic output. In non-OECD countries, rapid economic growth is expected to produce a steep climb in energy demand.
The report forecasts that between 2005 and 2030, non-OECD energy demand will grow by about 65 percent. However, even with this rapid growth, per-capita energy demand in non-OECD countries still will be much smaller than in OECD countries. By contrast, in OECD countries, energy demand is expected to actually be slightly lower in 2030 versus 2005, even though their economies will be more than 50 percent larger on average primarily due to efficiency.
ExxonMobil projects substantial improvements in efficiency in OECD countries. In non-OECD countries, though efficiency will improve, faster growth in GDP and personal incomes will continue to drive demand higher there, the report added. Efficiency gains were seen to accelerate between 2005 and 2030 versus historical trends, with energy-per-GDP falling at an average global rate of 1.5 percent a year.
The faster pace will be driven by higher energy costs, government mandates and regulations, technology advances and expected CO2 emissions costs in OECD countries. Improving efficiency at this rate will save a significant amount of energy.
The report further said gains in energy efficiency through 2030 will curb energy-demand growth through 2030 by about 65 percent. In this respect, the greatest source of energy in the future is finding ways to use energy more efficiently. The biggest demand for energy comes from electric power generation. Transportation is in third place behind industrial demand, which represents the energy used for manufacturing, steelmaking and other industrial purposes. Residential/commercial demand is the smallest sector.
Power generation is not only the largest energy-demand sector, but also the fastest-growing. Through 2030, this sector represents 55 percent of the total growth in energy demand. The remarkable increase in demand for energy for power generation is not just the high-tech demands of the developed world, but also the more basic needs and economic growth of the developing world.
Non-OECD electricity demand more than doubles through 2030 and accounts for 80 percent of total growth in electricity demand through 2030. The electric power generation sector alone will account for about 40 percent of total primary energy demand, and its largest energy source will continue to be coal, the fuel with the highest carbon intensity. In each sector, demand would be growing much faster without improvements in efficiency. Efficiency improvements in each sector will add up to significant energy savings each year – reaching 300 quadrillion BTUs in 2030.
In the residential/commercial sector, residential demand dominates, at about three times bigger than commercial. The trend continues as demand in this sector grows through 2030. Residential energy demand is tied closely to the total number of households in the world.
Through 2030, the report projects the number of households rising by 900 million, with nearly 90 percent of that growth occurring in non-OECD countries. OECD countries today use substantially more energy per household than non-OECD countries. All around the world, households are growing more efficient in their use of energy. Through 2030, the steepest decline in energy-perhousehold will come from OECD countries.