Global Emissions are Up, in BP’s Analysis

French consultancy Cedigaz sees global gas demand growing by 1.4%/year between 2016 and 2040, a major reduction cumulatively from last year’s 1.8% compound annual growth rate. It does however see the fuel playing a growing role in the energy mix at the expense of the other fossil fuels, it said July 3.

“The gradual shift from coal and oil to natural gas and renewables helps reduce the carbon intensity of the energy system as electrification and decarbonisation accelerate over the projection period. The expansion of natural gas markets is supported by both abundant and competitive conventional and unconventional resources, as well as a very rapid growth of spot and flexible LNG trade,” its 2018 medium and long-term outlook says.

• Natural gas demand grows by 1.4%/year over 2016-2040, which is lower than the previous Outlook. A stronger push for renewables and energy efficiency drives gas demand growth down to 1.2%/year over 2025-2040, compared with 1.8%/year over 2016-2025.
• On the supply side, the largest production gains are expected in the Middle East (+ 411bn m³), North America (352bn m³) and Asia-Oceania (+305bn m³).
• Interregional (long distance) trade is forecast to grow by 3.1%/year between 2016 and 2040. LNG expands more rapidly than pipeline gas. Interregional LNG trade will grow by more than 4%/year.
• A large part of the future natural gas demand growth is driven by China’s political support for gas use in power and industry
• The strong expansion of LNG supply will help gas to expand in the energy markets, especially in Asia.
• The growing importance of LNG trade will accelerate the integration of natural gas markets and will result in a closer linkage between international prices.
• Global peak demand for gas is not expected in the foreseeable future.

Higher than previously expected Asian LNG demand, propelled by China, and delays in the second wave of LNG liquefaction projects bring a risk of tighter markets as early as 2022, it says.

 

 

• Natural gas demand grows by 1.4%/year over 2016-2040, which is lower than the previous Outlook. A stronger push for renewables and energy efficiency drives gas demand growth down to 1.2%/year over 2025-2040, compared to 1.8%/year over 2016-2025.
• On the supply side, the largest production gains are expected in the Middle East (+ 411 bcm), North America (+ 352 bcm) and Asia-Oceania (+ 305 bcm).
• Interregional (long distance) trade is forecast to grow by 3.1%/year between 2016 and 2040. LNG expands more rapidly than pipeline gas. Interregional LNG trade will grow by more than 4%/year.
• Higher than previously expected Asian LNG demand, propelled by China, and delays in the second wave of LNG liquefaction projects bring a risk of tighter markets as early as 2022.

Natural Gas World