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Global Emissions are Up, in BP’s Analysis

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French consultancy Cedigaz sees global gas demand growing by 1.4%/year between 2016 and 2040, a major reduction cumulatively from last year’s 1.8% compound annual growth rate. It does however see the fuel playing a growing role in the energy mix at the expense of the other fossil fuels, it said July 3.

“The gradual shift from coal and oil to natural gas and renewables helps reduce the carbon intensity of the energy system as electrification and decarbonisation accelerate over the projection period. The expansion of natural gas markets is supported by both abundant and competitive conventional and unconventional resources, as well as a very rapid growth of spot and flexible LNG trade,” its 2018 medium and long-term outlook says.

  • Natural gas demand grows by 1.4%/year over 2016-2040, which is lower than the previous Outlook. A stronger push for renewables and energy efficiency drives gas demand growth down to 1.2%/year over 2025-2040, compared with 1.8%/year over 2016-2025.
  • On the supply side, the largest production gains are expected in the Middle East (+ 411bn m³), North America (352bn m³) and Asia-Oceania (+305bn m³).
  • Interregional (long distance) trade is forecast to grow by 3.1%/year between 2016 and 2040. LNG expands more rapidly than pipeline gas. Interregional LNG trade will grow by more than 4%/year.
  • A large part of the future natural gas demand growth is driven by China’s political support for gas use in power and industry
  • The strong expansion of LNG supply will help gas to expand in the energy markets, especially in Asia.
  • The growing importance of LNG trade will accelerate the integration of natural gas markets and will result in a closer linkage between international prices.
  • Global peak demand for gas is not expected in the foreseeable future.

Higher than previously expected Asian LNG demand, propelled by China, and delays in the second wave of LNG liquefaction projects bring a risk of tighter markets as early as 2022, it says.

 

 

  • Natural gas demand grows by 1.4%/year over 2016-2040, which is lower than the previous Outlook. A stronger push for renewables and energy efficiency drives gas demand growth down to 1.2%/year over 2025-2040, compared to 1.8%/year over 2016-2025.
  • On the supply side, the largest production gains are expected in the Middle East (+ 411 bcm), North America (+ 352 bcm) and Asia-Oceania (+ 305 bcm).
  • Interregional (long distance) trade is forecast to grow by 3.1%/year between 2016 and 2040. LNG expands more rapidly than pipeline gas. Interregional LNG trade will grow by more than 4%/year.
  • Higher than previously expected Asian LNG demand, propelled by China, and delays in the second wave of LNG liquefaction projects bring a risk of tighter markets as early as 2022.

Natural Gas World



8 Comments on "Global Emissions are Up, in BP’s Analysis"

  1. Geoffroy Hureau on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 7:23 am 

    It’s CEDIGAZ’ analysis, not BP’s

  2. Sissyfuss on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 9:33 am 

    Trump/Pruitt insist on growth as a fundamental precept of MAGA. Growth of emissions is correspondin proof that their policies are successful.

  3. Dave Thompson on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 5:36 pm 

    Sissyfuss, Just as I was going to point out.

  4. Sissyfuss on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 8:47 pm 

    Update; Trump/Pruitt no longer exist. Can’t wait to see the replacement. Is James Watt still kicking?

  5. Cloggie on Thu, 5th Jul 2018 11:40 pm 

    Had to look up what a Pruitt is, apparently a failed environment guy:

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/scandals-brought-down-scott-pruitt_us_5b3e7765e4b09e4a8b2b3298

  6. Outcast_Searcher on Fri, 6th Jul 2018 12:12 pm 

    Cloggie, given Trump’s rep and behavior re anything environmental, his complete denial of AGW science as an example — aside from the corruption, Pruitt’s behavior was mighty predictable.

    Instead of all the crocodile tears, dems SHOULD be passing carbon taxes where possible, to actually DO something about AGW. Instead, they shout at the right and do nothing, so they can get re-elected. (See Prop 732 in Washington State in ’16 for a classic example).

    Also, if liberals really cared about the environment, then when they’re in power in the Beltway, they could make big changes friendly to things like anti-AGW. Do they do that? Of course not.

    To them, something “big” is bragging about the Paris Climate Accords, as though they weren’t mostly a giant can kick on doing anything meaningful.

    I give BOTH sides a big FAIL.

  7. Cloggie on Fri, 6th Jul 2018 12:22 pm 

    @Outcast_Searcher

    That’s all true what you say, but there is more to life than environmentalism. Like defeating the US deep state. Sometimes tasks need to be accomplished for which you need a bulldozer. Trump could be that bulldozer.

    We’ll clean up the environment after the death of said deep state. Honest.

  8. mihilus on Sat, 7th Jul 2018 6:25 am 

    There are so many environmental problems yet to kookoos are hang up on this agw bullshit. You are presenting this unproven theory as a god given fact. Where is the proof?

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