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Page added on January 15, 2017
Energy Independence: Why Bother?
It doesn’t make economic or geopolitical sense.
In a global economy where we drive cars built in Japan, work on computers made in China and eat shrimp caught and peeled in Thailand, why do we hesitate to use oil pumped in Saudi Arabia?
Do we fear oil shortages or embargoes? We’ve weathered those before. The oil exporting countries can only hold back so long- they have to sell the stuff. Camels won’t drink it, and you can’t make vodka from it.
A nation prospers in global trade by exploiting its comparative advantage, exporting the goods it can produce better and cheaper than others. For the U.S., that’s not oil. Of twenty major oil producing nations, our production costs are in the top three, and the range is wide. It costs nearly twice as much to produce oil here as in Russia; more than three times as much as in the Middle East.
Data from CNN Money, reference below.
Our president-elect has pledged to boost the tight oil (fracking) industry by removing virtually all federal regulation- a giant subsidy, paid not in dollars but in damage to our land, waters and atmosphere. Fracking is so destructive that New York, Maryland and Vermont have banned it, and Pennsylvania has it under a moratorium. Many counties and cities have enacted their own bans.
Rather than sacrificing air, land and waters to try to compete in the oil trade, we should work to strengthen our industries, possibly bringing back some that have offshored. Boosting industry will give us more jobs as well as more goods to trade for oil. Mr. Trump has made some progress in this direction already.
From a geopolitical point of view, energy independence is a fallacy. “Independence Now” assures dependence later, as Howard Odum pointed out decades ago:
“Such efforts made by nations which are short of energy will have the effect of using up what energy they have even more quickly..By becoming more independent now, these nations would certainly run out of resources even sooner and become even more dependent on others.”
Many energy and foreign policy analysts are equally skeptical. In a 2012 poll of 57 energy experts, nearly two-thirds said energy independence was not a sensible goal. Daniel Yergin, summarizing the survey, called energy independence “A chimera which has been invoked by every U.S. president since 1973.”
An article in Foreign Policy magazine that year traced the history of the concept, calling it “A century and a half of an idea whose time has never come.” A defense department report, also published in 2012, criticized the concept.
Let those vast reserves of tight oil stay underground in the fracking plays, for now. Later on, if we desperately need the oil, we can decide whether it’s worth the cost and trouble to extract it: Paying $4 or more for gasoline; polluting ground water and coastal waters with acids and carcinogens from fracking fluid; triggering earthquakes in vulnerable regions; creating millions of tons of radioactive solid waste; adding vast volumes of CO2 and methane to the atmosphere.
In desperation, we as a nation might decide to pay these costs. But we certainly aren’t desperate now, with oil in the $50 range and gas around $2 a gallon.
References
Kai Wang, “Energy Independence, Yes? No? and How?”, University of Pennsylvania Public Policy Initiative,
https://publicpolicy.wharton.upenn.edu/live/news/1386-energy-independence-yes-no-and-how
Howard T. Odum and Elizabeth C. Odum, Energy Basis for Man and Nature, 1983, McGraw-Hill Inc.
Foreign Policy, “Energy Independence: A Short History,”
http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/01/03/energy-independence-a-short-history/
Daniel Yergin, “How is Energy Remaking the World”, Foreign Policy magazine,
http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/06/18/how-is-energy-remaking-the-world/
Energy Security Leadership Council, The New American Oil Boom: Implications for Energy Security,
http://www.thehill.com/images/stories/news/2012/05_may/safe_oil_boom_paper.pdf
25 Comments on "Energy Independence: Why Bother?"
rockman on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 9:51 pm
“Our president-elect has pledged to boost the tight oil (fracking) industry by removing virtually all federal regulation-“. As far as frac’ng goes the federal govt has no authority over frac’ng in Texas. The Texas Rail Road Commission regulates such activity here. No fed permission required since there are no fed regs controlling drilling in the state as long as it doesn’t involve navigatable waters. IOW we don’t need sh*t from the PEOTUS to drill or frac wells in Texas. LOL.
Anonymous on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 10:48 pm
Thats right rockyman. The uS is best place in the world to be in oily business. Little to no regulatory oversight, an endless stream of corporate welfare to ensure every oilman can live the amerikan dream regardless of how negligent they are. A massive military and black ops industry that will topple foreign govts on demand to keep as much of worlds oil ‘amerikan’ as possible. Bought and paid for officials, ready to do big oils bidding in the formal govt at all levels. Not just in the ‘homeland’, but abroad as well.
Whats not to like?
Of coruse you oily slugs dont ‘need sh*t’ from the ‘prez’ rockyman. He just a fooking figurejhead, a shadow puppet. Hell dance to whatever tune corporate oil needs him to. Sometimes, you guys even install oil insiders, bush, drillerson, cheny just to oversee operations in washingdum. Need the ‘prez’ to look tough and take on ‘big oil’. He can can that. Need to him stay out of big oils way? He can do that do too. Prez will do whatever the script calls for. That’s what the oilgrachs pay him for after all. You amerikants sure as sh*t dont pay him make policy, or ‘lead’ or anything like that, LOL.
Its always party time in the uSA for the oil cartel rocky, no need to broadcast that worst kept secret, ever.
Davy on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 7:07 am
Anymouse, look in your back yard hypocrite at your oil sands. Don’t blame it on the US because you are involved too. What a joke blaming the rest of the world always but unable to look in the mirror. The US is horrible in its oily business but you Canadians are horrible as accomplices and complicit in the rape and pillaging of the world. You Canadians have an effective “real” higher standard of living than the US. WTF, how did you get there? What a dumbass. You don’t think you got there because you Canadians are something special. LOL
Nony on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 8:11 am
The threat of US production helps destabilize the OPEC cartel. We saw that in the 1980s and then again in 2014. It’s not even the total amount pumped per se, but that the threat is serious and real.
rockman on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 8:38 am
A – “The uS is best place in the world to be in oily business.” So true. Just consider how well things went for the oil patch during the first 6 years of the term of the “greenest” POTUS in history. We haven’t seen that level of gains in production (thanks to President Obama complete lack of interference with frac’ng) for more then 4 decades. The POTUS also approved numerous expansions of pipelines from Canada to the US allowing more of the “dirtiest oil on the planet” to be consumed by Americans. Add the record amount of offshore leases he offered to the oil patch even AFTER the Macondo blow out. And can’t ignore the drill permit he approved for Arctic oil exploration along with permits in the same area as the largest US oil spill in history.
Of course President Obama did just provide help to the upstream: by supporting the downstream the US is the largest exporter of refinery products in the world. Had he imposed restrictions on those exports US consumers might be paying $1/gal for gasoline today…and maybe less. Same goes for his approval of NG export pipelines to Mexico as well as expediting approval for LNG and coal export terminals. Without that support NG producers would be forced to lower prices to consumers.
Seriously, the oil patch has no illusion about our future: it will impossible for us to do as well under the first term of a President Trump as we did under the first 6 years President Obama. We’ve already begun mourning the loss of the period when we had a D POTUS in the White House.
Yes indeed: lean times anticipated under the PEOTUS.
Nony on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 9:08 am
Consumers are a lot happier with their $2 gasoline under that protector of the working man (the Donald). 🙂
A lot better than that $4 per gallon they had to deal with under that oppressor of the poor (Obama). 🙂
Power to the people! Looooooooove that cheap gasoline!
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_chart/EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPGM.jpg
Dredd on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 10:26 am
Oil-Qaeda is not an American Company according to its CEO (Will Elections Cure The Disease? – 4).
It is a Private Empire.
Nony on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 11:23 am
Pump, pump. Like my gasoline!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w9gOQgfPW4Y
rockman on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 11:34 am
Dredd – From your link: “That melting Arctic Ice, like the melting Greenland Ice Sheet is the work of Oil-Qaeda” And again the same misrepresentation that the fossil fuel industrty is generating the bulk of GHG when it’s blatantly obvious the vast majority is DIRECTLY PRODUCED by the world’s fossil fuel CONSUMERS. While the industry does make those energy sources available it is the public (and the politicians it elects) that CHOOSES how much of those fossil fuels to convert to climate impacting CO2.
Again it would seem that guilt may be driving some to diflect from their culpability in the ongoing problem of climate change.
rockman on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 11:43 am
Nony – Exactly. As it stands now US consumers of fossil fuels will fair much better (and the oil patch worse) during the first term of a Trump presidency then during the first term of the Obama presidency.
How the Rockman et al long for the good ole days under Barry. LOL.
Nony on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 11:46 am
You know what Rockefeller told his competitors when he trapped them in a room in Ohio?
“Men, let us never forget the true enemy. The consumer.”
😉
GregT on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 2:50 pm
“Power to the people! Looooooooove that cheap gasoline!”
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_chart/EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPGM.jpg
Only cheap if you ignore the hundred or so years prior to 2005. Seems to be quite a bit of that going around theses days. Ignorance.
Anonymous on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 2:53 pm
You have a limited view of things,(likely intentional). I wasn’t referring to any particular ‘president’, but all them. Past, present, and future(however many of those there will be). Your bean counting of the last 8 years are irrelevant to the larger point.
You have no idea how many new holes in the ground, or ocean, president hairpiece will ‘approve’ for uS oil to sink, even though you should. So I will say it for you, the ‘prez’ will ‘approve’ the same number as the outgoing teleprompter in chief did, zero.
onlooker on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 3:38 pm
“Power to the people! Looooooooove that cheap gasoline!”Got to nominate that as the dumbest quote of the year so far. Cheap, as in it took millions of years of dying critters to create all these fossil fuels. Nothing cheap about that. Nothing cheap about the fact that it is a one time bonanza for humanity that we have squandered without any suitable replacements waiting in the wings. Nothing cheap about all the subsidies we give the Oil Industry. And nothing cheap about the wars we wage to assure supply and the cost of future disasters caused by the consequences of spewing the excrement of fossil fuels into the air. So Cheap my ass.
paulo1 on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 3:38 pm
Davy Davy Davy,,,,sigh.
Relax. Don’t rise to the bait. We are all guilty as hell, and this comes from a Canadian. It is a global product and problem. Our ‘producers’ are mostly global multi-nationals.
One thing, we Canadians are actually energy-independent and just sell the other 1/2 produced we don’t use or need. Who knows? Maybe with Trump putting on tariffs and the movement against the tar sands we start to cut back and shut down. We could pump 1/2…even less, even shut in some conventional and we will still have enough energy to run our country.
We all know this orgy of consumption is winding down. Some of us, (like you and me), are trying to live differently and with less. Change is coming for all of us.
I know that if Trump attacks us through NAFTA and Softwood Lumber agreements we’ll just get closer to China and other markets. Hopefully, someone will give ‘cheeto head’ the message
regards
Davy on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 5:06 pm
Paulo, the latest is Orange Geesus. Lol. I will say this the guy has aged 10 year in the last year. He is looking rough. I wonder if he will make it 4 more.
Funny, he hasn’t said a bad word I know of towards Canada even though Canada was generally a big support of Hillary. He may be saving the best for last. Oops.
Dredd on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 5:11 pm
rockman on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 11:34 am,
I don’t have time nor space to give the history of Oil-Qaeda in one post.
The recent history (1950-2017) is coming out in the courts now.
Two states have ordered one member of Oil-Qaeda to produce documents going back in recent history, so the truth is now coming out (Court Brief).
Like their co-criminals in big tobacco, Oil-Qaeda will face the music they haven’t up until now.
I have written a hundred or more posts on the issue (Series Posts).
In American jurisprudence, there are the guilty and there are the victims, each with distinctly different characteristics.
The perpetrator and victim are not one entity as Oil-Qaeda propaganda would falsely have it (The Psychology of the Notion of Collective Guilt, The Private Empire’s Social Media Hit Squads – 2).
Thanks for your interest.
Dredd on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 5:19 pm
rockman,
“Again it would seem that guilt may be driving some to diflect from their culpability in the ongoing problem of climate change.”
Very true, the guilty are Oil-Qaeda, the victims are the members of civilization who were forced by Oil-Qaeda into being “addicted to oil”.
History shows unequivocally that Oil-Qaeda knew the reality of their GHG sins before most people alive today were even born.
Don’t embrace the guilt, reject it and fight for the victims, not the perpetrators.
Dredd on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 5:32 pm
rockman,
I respectfully listed Oil-Qaeda members who are being investigated by state attorney generals, and one court case document that goes to great lengths to point out the case (Court Brief).
Now, if you will be so kind to argue your position by pointing out where citizens are being investigated for fraud like Oil-Qaeda is.
Apneaman on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 6:14 pm
Davy, maybe Cheeto head knew that Canadians don’t get to vote and thus he did not give a fuck what they think? He did not give a fuck what anyone except his targeted voters thought either and even said so……with great glee and gusto. The American Mussolini.
Remember that kids joke about getting an orange dick from jerking off after eating a bag of cheetos (Cheezies in Canada)?
Trump probably rubs his face (self cuddling) after he eats his Cheetos and whacks off.
Zarquon on Mon, 16th Jan 2017 9:25 pm
There isn’t much drilling in the US except for the shales. So, OK, shut down half the US oil industry, destroy half a million mostly well-paying jobs, wait ten or fifteen years till the others run out, then rehire the engineers and geologists you fired fifteen years ago and start drilling again. Sounds like a plan. Not to speak of the problem that nobody has 2-3 mb/d reserve capacity, so without US shales we’d see $150/barrel a month later. Definitely quite a plan.
rockman on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 7:48 am
“…the victims are the members of civilization who were forced by Oil-Qaeda into being “addicted to oil”.”. LMFAO! And there it is again: that guilt driven denial of responsibility. Just like overweight folks blaming fast food for “addicting” them to bad food CHOICES. Just like alcoholics blaming beer makers for “addicting” them to bad drinking CHOICES. Poor ole Dredd wants to point fingers at deniers…that’s fair. OTOH Dredd, as a climate change believer, burns fossil fuels and thus is an active member of the collective that produces the vast majority of the world’s GHG. Which leaves him with a big problem: he acknowledges he’s directly contributing to climate change despite being a believer. So he has to play the role of “addict” or be judged a hypocrite.
One has to wonder how the rest of the world avoided the oil patch spell given the hugely disproportionate share of oil the US citizens CHOOSE to consume compared to the rest of civilization.
Dredd on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 12:54 pm
rockman,
“The first one is free.”
The fraud cases continue to mount against the guilty.
Not one case against the guiltless.
It figures.
Your math, or the lack of it, says it all.
Your guilt is showing through your lack of a fair and reasonable concept of justice.
Your anger adds nothing to it (Keep The Faith Baby).
Dredd on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 1:24 pm
One of the oil addiction cartel’s crew at work before anyone alive now was born (Smedley – 2).
The king of the oil addiction cartel in full power before anyone alive today was born, had this to say to Rex Tillerson, a current king-pin of the oil addiction cartel:
“One of our greatest helpers has been the State Department” – John D. Rockefeller (1909)”
(A History of Oil Addiction, 2, 3, 4).
Dredd on Tue, 17th Jan 2017 1:31 pm
Your mother buys gasoline, oil, natural gas, and plastics.
But is not guilty, having become an addict by virtue of being born into The Private Empire (MOMCOM: The Private Parts, 2, 3, 4, 5).
“I am not an American Company.” – ExxonMobil CEO