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Page added on July 24, 2017

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Electric Vehicles Will Decimate Oil

Electric Vehicles Will Decimate Oil thumbnail

The electric vehicle revolution is speeding up. Year over year, electric vehicles sales are up 45% and the Tesla Model 3 hasn’t even gotten into the fray yet. If electric vehicles continue as these rapid growth rates, they represent a 10% market share before 2025.

But what exactly will that mean for oil?

Well, it’s already not good. Vehicles constitute the single largest consumer of oil, 45% of all oil demand. A serious blow to that sector could mean disaster for oil markets worldwide. We’re already seeing the beginning of this in some areas.

China’s oil demand growth has slowed to a 3 year low. While this may seem insignificant, China’s economy is still growing rapidly and their growth for oil demand is starting to trail behind. This has been linked to the now 1.3% market share electric vehicles have in China. This trend is set to accelerate worldwide.

Peak Oil Before 2030?

Previously unthinkable, we are now talking about oil demand peaking before the year 2030. This isn’t some nutjob conspiracy either: both Shell and Statoil (two of the largest oil companies in the world) have repeatedly stated they believe oil may peak in the 2020’s. If so, this would wreak havoc on a previously unstoppable global industry.

Even a 5% market share for EV’s would mean an impact similar to what we saw in 2014 on oil. That could mean oil prices collapsing to new lows.

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41 Comments on "Electric Vehicles Will Decimate Oil"

  1. dave thompson on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 5:13 pm 

    OK so 1.2 billion ICE’s vs maybe 2 million EV”s worldwide. More hopium for the masses. EV”S to the rescue, watch out you big bad FF companies.

  2. Mark Ziegler on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 5:24 pm 

    Energy must be replaced with electricity. Natural gas supplies will be in question. Let us hope our natural gas furnaces do not stop running. Let us hope the grid will hold up.

  3. Makati1 on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 6:15 pm 

    Hahahahahahaha! Sorry, too busy laughing to type a comment. Pure, unadulterated bullshit!

  4. mark on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 6:22 pm 

    EV’s are a cult phenomenon They are not CO2 green nor will they save the day.

  5. twocats on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 6:31 pm 

    “Year over year, electric vehicles sales are up 45%”

    I know this is ancient history, but (at least in the US) EV sales from 2013 to 2014 went up 23% (22k units), but HYBRID SALES went down 8% (43k units!!!). So by 2014 the trend was already waning. But surely surely that was a one off. Nope. 2014 to 2015 BOTH EV AND HYBRID sales both fell.

    I could keep going, but this guy is such a clown it’s hardly worth debating. He doesn’t site a source for his 45% increase, and I’m assuming he’s talking globally, though its hard to tell. Great reporting.

    http://electricdrive.org/index.php?ht=d/sp/i/20952/pid/20952

  6. Makati1 on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 6:36 pm 

    Twocats, the last time I checked, a few months ago, EVs were growing at a pace that would take about 50 years to replace the existing FF cars.

    But a certain techie addicted commenter here doesn’t want to see facts, just advertising bullshit.

  7. boat on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 6:38 pm 

    No matter the size of the FF market, now or in the future, will always be owned by the lowest cost producer. Buy my capitalism for idiots video for only $19.99. PS no hopium included. Quite the oppisite, survival of the fitest.

  8. Makati1 on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 7:07 pm 

    Boat, then you are not going to survive. You are too deep into denial to be saved.

  9. boat on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 8:08 pm 

    mak,

    Four years ago the world was on the brink of destruction. Tick tock Nostradamus.

  10. Makati1 on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 8:45 pm 

    Boat, the clock is still ticking down. Are you in a hurry?

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-doomsday-clock-two-and-a-half-minutes-to-midnight-ever-closer-to-nuclear-war/5600715

    Fool!

  11. deadlykillerbeaz on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 9:12 pm 

    You gotta count wheelchairs and golf carts.

    All of those battery operated RC toys too.

    Don’t laugh.

  12. Cloggie on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 9:27 pm 

    “I could keep going, but this guy is such a clown it’s hardly worth debating. He doesn’t site a source for his 45% increase, and I’m assuming he’s talking globally, though its hard to tell. Great reporting.”

    Sorry guys:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-07/electric-car-market-goes-zero-to-2-million-in-five-years

    60% sales growth in 2017 globally and 30% of all cars world-wide will be ev’s.

    The article is being modest.

    EV’s are potentially cheaper because simpler, are quiet, require less maintenance.

    By 2025-2030 people seen driving in a stinking, polutting gasoline car will be seen as an embarrassement, like crack dealers.

    I’m with this article, boat and Bloomboig.

    #DoomersGonnaDoom
    #EVsGonnaBloom
    #DumpYourSevenSistersStock

  13. Cloggie on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 9:35 pm 

    You can keep Shell stock though:

    http://www.offshorewind.biz/2017/04/13/shell-makes-case-for-20gw-of-dutch-offshore-wind-by-2030/

    “Shell Makes Case for 20GW of Dutch Offshore Wind by 2030”

    2GW is enough to power all Dutch private cars.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-22/shell-looks-beyond-dutch-waters-for-offshore-wind-investments

    “Shell Looks Beyond Dutch Waters for Offshore Wind Investments”

    Shell understands the signs of the times. Fossil fuel is facing peak demand.

  14. Apneaman on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 9:39 pm 

    Speaking of decimated.

    What good are e-cars or any cars when your civilization is destroyed and you’re fucking dead, dead, dead? Stupid meaningless shit monkeys argue over.

    European Heat, Drought, Fires Bite Deep as 1 Million Impacted by Water Rationing in Rome

    “We will see a lot more surprises and fires burning in places that don’t have a fire history. We’ll see more fires and more intense fires in the Mediterranean and new fire situations in countries that don’t really expect it.” — Alexander Held, a senior expert at the European Forest Institute.

    “Rome faces eight hours a day without running water after a halt was ordered on pumping water from a nearby lake.” — BBC.”

    “Europe — sweltering under heat and drought — is blanketed by triple the typical number of wildfires during July of 2017. ”

    https://robertscribbler.com/2017/07/24/european-heat-drought-fires-bite-deep-as-1-million-impacted-by-water-rationing-in-rome/

    1 more decade tops.

  15. Makati1 on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 9:46 pm 

    Ap, I see a steep decline before 10 years, but, yes, that seems to be max. So many here do NOT think in the terms of Total Systems, only the little niche they have grown to love. And the major Total System they should be concerned about is the ecosystem that will be less and less able to support homo sapiens for much longer. They do not see the financial changes coming in their lives either. So be it.

  16. Cloggie on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 9:54 pm 

    Apneaman is on the payroll of Tesla. Must be.

  17. GregT on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 10:29 pm 

    “I’m with this article, boat and Bloomboig.”

    Hmmm. Has Cloggie been hacked? Or has he lost his mind?

  18. dissident on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 10:34 pm 

    BS. The $15,000 to $20,000 markup on these cars makes them overpriced even if there is a large fuel savings. Assuming you can get your electricity for next to nothing, you will still have paid for more than all the gasoline you will have saved over the potential 15 year life of the car. This includes initial purchase rebates. So the volume of sales of these boutique items will remain small.

  19. Cloggie on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 11:05 pm 

    “Hmmm. Has Cloggie been hacked? Or has he lost his mind?”

    No not hacked. I’m seldom with boat and Bloomboig, but on the topic of EVs I am, for the reasons stated.

    Arguments Greg, not forum buddy politics.

  20. Cloggie on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 11:08 pm 

    @dissident – EVs are still expensive because of lack of economy of scale and immature battery technology.

    But the price of EVs will go South only in the coming decade, just like happened with solar panels and offshore wind.

  21. GregT on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 11:29 pm 

    “But the price of EVs will go South only in the coming decade, just like happened with solar panels and offshore wind.”

    Asian sweat shops, coal, and pollution. You’re most likely correct.

  22. Makati1 on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 11:40 pm 

    I doubt the EV price will come down. More likely the companies will close up shop as there will be no customers. Doesn’t anyone pay attention to the economy?

    Asian labor costs are going up. Materials costs are going up. Incomes of those who may be interested in buying a car are going down.

    But then, reality eludes many these days. Hopium is the new drug of choice.

  23. Go Speed Racer on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 11:45 pm 

    WHEN your phucking electric cars look like this:

    http://www.mcsmk8.com/79-MARKV/HR/79MKV-02.JPG

    Then at that time, I will buy one, and drive it.

  24. rockman on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 11:52 pm 

    Cloggie – You need to read your link more carefully. Not 30% in 2017: “Plug in automobiles may reach 30% market penetration by 2030”. And obviously no credible basis for such a prediction 13 years into the future.

  25. dave thompson on Tue, 25th Jul 2017 12:36 am 

    @Cloggie; Have you read this yet? If you have you certainly have never commented. http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2017/07/furnaces-of-industry_14.html

  26. Cloggie on Tue, 25th Jul 2017 3:05 am 

    @dave thompson

    Your point?

    Glass = 1% energy budget.
    Would be 10 Manhattans of solar panels.

    So you need 1000 Manhattans for the energy transition.
    Manhattan is not that big.

    The EU has given itself 33 years to get the job done.

    @Rockman – you are right, it should be 30% of all new cars sold. The basis no doubt is called extrapolation. Data fitting.

    Asian sweat shops, coal, and pollution. You’re most likely correct.

    Robots are not known for sweating a lot.

    WHEN your phucking electric cars look like this:

    Your wish is my command, sirree!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_QAWVUoZFg

  27. dave thompson on Tue, 25th Jul 2017 6:37 am 

    @ cloggie my point, you do not get is, that Glass is only one small part of the industrial picture that you refuse to accept. Add up all the stuff we need for industrial civ and then tell me how many Manhattan’s will be needed in the form of solar and wind.

  28. Cloggie on Tue, 25th Jul 2017 7:02 am 

    @ cloggie my point, you do not get is, that Glass is only one small part of the industrial picture that you refuse to accept.

    You don’t get it. It was your link that said that US glass production is 1% energy budget = 10 Manhattan’s.

    So 100% US renewable energy would require 1,000 Manhattans.

    Read your own link and my post before you comment my post.

  29. John Norris on Tue, 25th Jul 2017 8:37 am 

    Cloggie, I agree with your number of 1,000+ Manhattans for US primary energy consumption (97+ quads). But take out the energy waste for burning stuff inefficiently it comes down to more like 600 Manhattans.

  30. Sissyfuss on Tue, 25th Jul 2017 8:44 am 

    The greatest salesman for EVs will be climate disruption. When harvest cycles become erratic and drought/rain bombs become de rigueur, not even Trumpland will be able to prevaricate their agenda anymore. Of course it will be too late to make any difference but at least homo insipids will have a coalescing paradigm to give hope before it is crushed permanently.

  31. ____________________________________________ on Tue, 25th Jul 2017 8:11 pm 

    go get anal rape from a gang of muzzies steemit. I hate that i can only get peak oil news from this bloody fag shit website

  32. Apneaman on Tue, 25th Jul 2017 9:35 pm 

    ________________________ you crazy! No worries, you just ahead of the pack. The others will catch up soon enough.

  33. Apneaman on Tue, 25th Jul 2017 9:41 pm 

    Looks like way more permafrost is going to be decimated soon. That’s when the fun will really start.

    More Fire and Anthrax for the Arctic: Study Finds 21 to 25 Percent of Northern Permafrost Will Thaw at Just 1.5 C of Warming

    “In the far north, the land is rippling, trembling, subsiding, and blowing up as greenhouse gasses are released from thawing frozen soil. Meanwhile, old diseases are being released from thawing carcasses and presenting a health hazard to locals. Strange processes that are likely to accelerate soon as global warming approaches 1.5 degrees Celsius and between 21 and 25.5 percent of all the vast region of Northern Permafrost thaws out.”

    “Arctic Carbon Feedbacks Accelerating

    Carbon feedbacks from the thawing permafrost are a serious concern. And they should be. There’s about 1,400 billion tons of carbon locked away in that massive region of frozen ground. More than twice the amount humans have already emitted into the atmosphere. And though frozen permafrost carbon stays locked away, thawed permafrost carbon tends to become biologically active — releasing into soils, the water and the air.”

    https://robertscribbler.com/2017/07/25/more-fire-and-anthrax-for-the-arctic-study-finds-21-to-25-percent-of-northern-permafrost-will-thaw-at-just-1-5-c-of-warming/

    scribbler is a hopey liberal – it’s even worse than he is portraying it.

  34. Apneaman on Tue, 25th Jul 2017 9:47 pm 

    What’s the maximum temperature those e-cars can operate in?

    A record 110 for Salina as the heat holds on

    http://www.kansas.com/news/weather/article163047588.html

    Records set or matched Saturday

    “The thermometer soared to 111 in Salina, toppling the old record of 110 set during the Dust Bowl days in 1934.

    The records matched by Wichita and Russell were much more recent: the 107 in Wichita was first logged in 2001, while it was 106 in Russell just last year.”

    http://www.kansas.com/news/weather/article163147608.html

  35. Apneaman on Tue, 25th Jul 2017 9:55 pm 

    I guess the alt right retards are correct, Putin is a national Rain Maker.

    Officials resort to artificial rain to tackle raging wildfires in Siberia

    http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/features/officials-resort-to-artificial-rain-to-tackle-raging-wildfires-in-siberia/

  36. pointer on Wed, 26th Jul 2017 6:37 am 

    How many of you distinguished PO fellows actually drive an EV?

  37. rockman on Wed, 26th Jul 2017 11:05 am 

    Jul – Try http://peakoilbarrel.com

    I’ve heard a lot of good things about this group.

  38. Kenz300 on Wed, 26th Jul 2017 11:59 am 

    Fossil fuels will become bad investments.

    Look how fast coal companies went bankrupt.

    Wind and solar are safer, cleaner and cheaper energy sources.

    Electric vehicles are the future of transportation.

    It is time to divest from fossil fuel investments.

  39. baha on Wed, 26th Jul 2017 2:26 pm 

    Hahahahaha..I can’t stop laughing since I’m having so much fun 🙂 What a great time to be alive. Cars that run on sunshine…

  40. Cloggie on Wed, 26th Jul 2017 3:07 pm 

    Hahahahaha..I can’t stop laughing since I’m having so much fun What a great time to be alive. Cars that run on sunshine…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6Nl2tBWuLk

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLE8RZBYFUM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIB1bQJVvGA

    https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/06/23/tu-eindhoven-presents-stella-vie/

  41. peakyeast on Wed, 26th Jul 2017 4:12 pm 

    As I have posted before – I made a calculation: My LUPO 3L ICE vs ANY electrical vehicle.

    Conclusion: Even the cheapest EV needs a price cut of factor 8 to break even with the expenses driving the ICE.

    My ICE is VERY cheap. Any EV will be a factor of 10 more expensive – since they cant be purchased used and any used EV is probably worth about nothing because of the battery expiration. – You have absolutely NO chance of knowing the condition of the battery.

    So factor 10 in purchase. – Or about factor 3 when considering new cars.

    Factor 8 during driving.

    Still a loooong way before it becomes the new normal. – If ever. All the new expensive EVs will have to trickle down as second hand items to the misers and poor people. That will only happen if and when the battery problems has been solved.

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