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Page added on August 18, 2017

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Electric cars may take over Indian roads by 2020

Consumption

Even as Indians take to the road like never before, consumers could well be buying their last petrol or diesel car, according to a US-based expert. Using the country’s quick adaptation of smartphones as a model, Tony Seba, lecturer of Entrepreneurship, Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford University, says electric vehicles could bring about a similar massive transportation disruption in India as early as 2020.

What’s more, he predicts that internal combustion vehicles which run on petrol and diesel could be wiped out globally in as little as 8-10 years. Seba’s warning comes as passenger vehicles in India in financial year 2016-17 grew at 9.24 per cent, the fastest rate of growth in six years, largely on the backs of utility vehicles, most of which run on diesel, which is much cheaper than petrol.

“Remember at the time of Smartphones India was the country which was the quickest to adopt the smartphone culture. In India the transport disruption can happen sooner,” Seba told WION in an exclusive interview.

The benefits, he points out, will be enormous, both in terms of financial savings as well as air pollution levels.

Seba estimates India stands to save as much as 6000 dollars a year per family as transportation cost will be 10 times cheaper with electric vehicles. As a nation, too, India, which imports about 80 per cent of its crude requirements, will stand to save on its import bill.

As for pollution, electric vehicles emit about 95 per cent less pollutants compared to cars that run on fossil fuels.

“I was in Mumbai and Delhi a couple of months back and the pollution there is insane, especially in Delhi,” Seba said. “(With electric vehicles) The emissions will come down and health wise, it will be very important.”

He also foresees a situation where more people will rely on cab aggregators like Ola and Uber instead of owing and driving a car.

“In totality an owner on average uses four per cent of his car, Ola and Uber use 40 per cent. Hence, instead of parking, the latter will be moving around. This means if they are EVs (Electric Vehicles), there will be 70 per cent fewer cars,” Seba said.

The logic, he says, is simple. “When we use electric vehicles, the cost per km goes down 10 times as compared to combustion vehicles. Every time there is a difference of 10 times in prices, disruption happens and for the vehicle sector it will take 10 years for disruption to happen,” he points out.

Besides, electric vehicles have a working life that is three times that of a petrol or diesel car. They also have only 20 moving parts, compared to 100 for regular cars.

“Only EVs will survive,” he said. “Even if the petrol and diesel vehicles try they will not.” In fact, he goes so far as to say that by 2020-2021, no new combustible vehicles will be sold. With fewer individuals owning or buying cars, the resale value of cars will also go down resulting in less purchase of such cars.

Oil prices, too, will play a part. Globally, he predicts, oil will hit peak demand by 2020 at 100 million barrels a day and by 2030, it will dip to 70 million barrel per day. Consequently, prices will crash by $20-25 a barrel and result in oversupply of 2 million barrels per day.

dna india.com



69 Comments on "Electric cars may take over Indian roads by 2020"

  1. Cloggie on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 4:48 am 

    I wonder what will happen to these alt energy companies when the next financial shock wave hits? According to Gail, it isn’t far away. Time to stock up on those little green biscuits.

    In Russia, post-USSR, with a collapsed economy, companies kept functioning somehow. People showed up for work even if they were not paid for months, because they had nowhere else to go. Won’t be different in the West after a possible crash.

  2. Davy on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 5:17 am 

    “development aid.” Give me a break, development aid or modern day multinational colonialism that is a cover for exploitation and resource rape. We need to get out of the business of destroying the 3rd world, clog. The US and Europe and now the Chinese are destroying the 3rd world through so called development.

  3. Davy on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 5:31 am 

    “In Russia, post-USSR, with a collapsed economy, companies kept functioning somehow. People showed up for work even if they were not paid for months, because they had nowhere else to go. Won’t be different in the West after a possible crash.”

    Sorry, clog, you are musing your self-security habituations with lame examples. The USSR imploded in a vibrant and growing global economy. Globalism was just gathering steam and ready to explode into a new level of productivity with the advent of the Chinese cancer or growth whichever way you look at it. It was also the advent of the American and European Ponzi financialization that parasitically fleeced the productive middle class globally through wealth transfer.

    What is coming is a global crash including your Euroland and especially your Euroland that relies so much on others resources. There is nowhere to go and no one to pick up the slack this time around. We are going down together. This may vary in degree and the tempo but we will all decline together because our lives are now interconnected in brittle chains of modernism. A modernism of comparative advantage of globally sourced and distributed wealth. No local is without delocalization from this.

  4. GregT on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 9:25 am 

    “So all this “vibrant diversity” trying to make it to Europe is in reality fleeing towards a corps? Good to know.”

    They are fleeing from areas that the palliative care patient has been exploiting, in a futile attempt to stop itself from becoming a corpse. In reality, that futile attempt has backfired.

  5. Cloggie on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 10:24 am 

    “development aid.” Give me a break, development aid or modern day multinational colonialism that is a cover for exploitation and resource rape. We need to get out of the business of destroying the 3rd world, clog. The US and Europe and now the Chinese are destroying the 3rd world through so called development.

    Guilt trip. The 3rd world would not have a clue how to develop resources, let alone what to do with it.

    What is coming is a global crash including your Euroland and especially your Euroland that relies so much on others resources.

    Sure Davy, collapse as far as the eye can see. I know the shtick by now.

    https://qz.com/909088/for-the-first-time-in-a-long-time-every-eu-economy-is-growing-at-the-same-time/

    https://www.ft.com/content/0bbc026a-ea12-11e6-967b-c88452263daf?mhq5j=e1

    https://www.ft.com/content/c6c824c8-3637-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3?mhq5j=e1

    http://www.politico.eu/article/psst-europes-economy-is-doing-well/

    And then there is mr Hildebrand of Blackrock, predicting a “golden decade for Europe” is ahead. That’s not me saying that, the “Euro-supremacist”.lol

    They are fleeing from areas that the palliative care patient has been exploiting, in a futile attempt to stop itself from becoming a corpse. In reality, that futile attempt has backfired.

    Guilt trip. They are coming for free money and nothing else and because they are too incompetent to create a valuable society for themselves. Don’t take it from me, I might be a white supremist, you never can be prudent enough, they admit it themselves:

    http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1713275,00.html

  6. Kenz300 on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 11:12 am 

    Investors make money by investing in the future.

    Losers invest in the past.

  7. GregT on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 12:16 pm 

    “They are coming for free money and nothing else”

    Right Cloggie. So why weren’t they coming for free money before the important ones bombed their countries back into the Stone Age?

  8. rockman on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 3:29 pm 

    Davy – “…development aid or modern day multinational colonialism that is a cover for exploitation…We need to get out of the business of destroying the 3rd world”. Complex dynamic, eh? The US is a prime example of using a very disproportionate amount of global resources. OTOH what type of shape would many of the source countries be in today had the big consuming nations not PAID for the development of those resources? The obvious poster child: Venezuela. Those “colonialist originally built and PAID for the development of its only valuable resource…oil. Then the govt took those investments from those “colonialists” and has been funding it population fairly well…until recently.

    So speculate on the condition of the Venezuelan people had they not had those resources. Or if they had them but not the capex to develop those resources themselves. Even Saudi Arabia falls into that category: had they not had those resources or not the development capex? How would a number of small desert dwelling tribes explored for their oil? And who would have lent them the money to do so?

    We can certainly point to any number of situations when the trade deals might not have been fair. But there were trade deals made that did benefit those countries. Some, like Saudi Arabia, ultimately with huge benefits.

    IOW what would the KSA, Venezuela, Nigeria, et al have NOT BEEN receiving by exporting oil for the last 50 years? Also bear in mind prior to 1960 it was the US that was the primary exporter of oil. Were we “raped” by those oil companies that shipped some of our finite resources to foreign consumers? Especially those who were dependent on that oil to fuel their efforts in WWII? Weren’t the US resources not heavily “exploited” during that period for the benefit of foreigners?

    As I said: a complex dynamic when viewed over the last 70+ years.

  9. Davy on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 4:02 pm 

    Rock, it’s a complex story with tradeoffs that continuously welcome us to the reality of the dirty business of survival. My point is we should not use the words “development” and “aid” together as if it is something good and wholesome like mom and apple pie. It isn’t because it is exploitive with profit motive. There are some truly good people and organizations who donate goods and time but that is not significant in relationship to global development efforts. Many of these people and organizations are deceiving themselves on what they are doing. Development aid is a polite way to say fleecing. The secondary benefit is some of that trickles down and does help some.

    Looking back on what the world was and what it is now I would have to ask what benefit? Look at the cultures gutted and destroyed. Look at the overpopulation that development allowed. We should have left things alone but we had to get involved where we didn’t belong. Now it is just a way of doing things. If you don’t offer “fake” aid then you are considered a bad country. It is all one big joke that mirrors the joke that is us. We humans are a bad joke.

  10. GregT on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 4:39 pm 

    The devil’s excrement

    Is oil wealth a blessing or a curse?

    “THREE decades ago, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sent oil prices rocketing. By 1980, a barrel cost $30, ten times the price in 1970. Consumers suffered, whereas oil producers reaped an enormous windfall. Many assumed then that oil was a gift of God that would transform poor countries into flourishing economies within a generation. Yet even during those heady early days there were doubts. Juan Pablo Pérez Alfonso, a founder of OPEC, complained in 1975: “I call petroleum the devil’s excrement. It brings trouble…Look at this locura—waste, corruption, consumption, our public services falling apart. And debt, debt we shall have for years.”

    http://www.economist.com/node/1795921

  11. Makati1 on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 7:15 pm 

    Oil is a gift from hell, if you believe in such things. Humans managed for thousands of years without it and would have managed for thousands of years more, if it had not been discovered. IF it had been recognized for what it is, a fantastic store of portable energy, and used it wisely, we would live in a much different and better world.

    But greed set in, and waste … and here we are. A dying species, being killed by our own stupidity. What happens in a candy store if you tell your kid (s)he can eat all (s)he wants? You will have a sick kid or a dead one. Common sense is to not allow such greed. We were lifted by oil and we shall die by oil. Humans, the ‘intelligent’ species? LMAO

  12. GregT on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 8:10 pm 

    “But greed set in.”

    The greed was always there Makati, especially amongst what Cloogie refers to as ‘the important ones’. They prefer to call it innovation, or resourcefulness.

    The sad reality of the matter is, however, greed is the primary motivator of humans 1.1, and unless they come to the realization that greed is the primary cause of the 6th mass extinction event that they are currently causing, and upgrade to humans 2.1, the future that their children face, and their children’s children, will be humans 0.0.
    There is no doubt in my mind, as to whether or not ‘the important ones’ are going to change their ways anytime soon. They are an evolutionary dead end.

  13. Makati1 on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 8:15 pm 

    GregT, so are we. So are we. I have no hope for the human race. None.

  14. GregT on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 8:31 pm 

    The ‘human race’ is a fitting description. I often wonder what it is that the humans believe that they are racing towards, or against. Certainly not a race to the stars. More like a race to complete anihilation.

    Here we are, in the 21st century AD, and people still think that it is perfectly acceptable to murder en masse others, because of their religious beliefs, or the color of their skin.

    The humans are not going to upgrade themselves, ever.
    This is as good as the humans will ever get.

  15. Makati1 on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 8:53 pm 

    GregT, The millions of murders by the US in foreign lands is about money and power, not religion, skin color or style of government. It is about money. About control of energy (Oil). About the power to control those and other resources for the elite. Nothing more. Nothing less. All other ‘issues’ are red herrings. Lies and propaganda. But most Americans will never see/realize/accept those facts because they are getting dribbles of that same resource plunder in the form of subsidies, welfare, cheap junk from Asia, and yes, Social security, Medicare and Medicaid. Make the US live on only it’s ~4% share of the world’s resources and it would not exist. So be it. I’m waiting for the collapse. I am prepared. I hope you are.

  16. GregT on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 9:16 pm 

    Not sure if we’ll ever be fully prepared Makati, but we’ve done everything that we can think of, to position ourselves as best as we can. Climate change, as of late, has already proven itself be problematic, and I’m sure that we haven’t seen anything in that regard quite yet.

    And Makati, If you re-read my comment above, I said what people think, not the reality of the matter. As long as the people continue to believe in the propaganda, the mass murders are not going to stop.

  17. Makati1 on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 10:46 pm 

    GregT, I doubt that anyone can be totally prepared. I am as prepared as possible with my resources, location, etc. I guess that is all any of us can do. It is the deniers and the ‘exceptionalists’ that will be hurt the most. Those who believe it cannot happen or, at least, not as much pain to them as to others. That 2X4 of reality is going to hurt. That exceptional/indispensable country is going down the hardest, but they will deny it until…

  18. Makati1 on Sat, 19th Aug 2017 10:49 pm 

    Yes, I understood what you said GregT. The mass murders will not stop until the US goes down. Soon, I hope.

  19. Rockman on Sun, 20th Aug 2017 7:32 am 

    Davy – I agree: “aid” is not an appropriate term. As far as benefits go that varies greatly with the local govts much more so then then the trade with the companies. Just compare Norway and Germany to Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea.

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