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Page added on February 16, 2018

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Electric cars may reduce global demand for oil by mid-2020s

Consumption

The emergence of electric cars can lead to a reduction of oil consumption by road transport by the mid-2020s, the Russian Central Bank said in its report.

According to the Central Bank, the speed of the development of the electric vehicle market and the rate of growth of the efficiency of fuel consumption will greatly influence the dynamics of oil consumption by road transport.

“With a wide spread of scenario estimates, the peak of oil consumption by road transport is likely to be achieved by the middle of 2020. With a high rate of growth of the efficiency of fuel consumption or the rapid development of the electric vehicle market in the coming years, this can have a significant negative impact on oil prices,” the regulator said.

Nevertheless, in relation to oil, in addition to motor transport, according to the Central Bank, 11% of the aggregate demand accounts for air and sea freight, on the part of which consumption growth, according to various estimates, will continue. In the remaining 45% of world consumption, the Central Bank noted consumption of petrochemicals, which should also continue to grow.

http://tass.com/economy/990427



27 Comments on "Electric cars may reduce global demand for oil by mid-2020s"

  1. dave thompson on Fri, 16th Feb 2018 3:55 pm 

    If EV transport takes over in a country or sector,the Gasoline from crude will still be refined sold and burned somewhere else. Most likely burned faster and cheaper to.

  2. MASTERMIND on Fri, 16th Feb 2018 4:31 pm 

    UC Davis Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)
    http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q

    University of Chicago Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)
    https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117

  3. Anonymouse1 on Fri, 16th Feb 2018 4:32 pm 

    That could well turn out to be the case. However, since EV are manufactured, designed, sold, transported and supported by oil throughout their entire lifecycle, and the entire transportation system EVs are intended to utilize, that would be the roads, signaling and so on, are also built with OIL, the cartel has little to worry about, even if EV production were to magically and suddenly take off. That doesn’t even get into the role oil plays in things like disposal, enforcement and so on. EVs may not burn oil directly, but they burn staggering amounts of oil IN-directly. That’s just what cars do, regardless how their ‘fuel’ tank looks.

    In reality, the only thing that has ever put any kind of dent in oil demand, are the capitalists worlds chronic recession, depression cycles. Those do, and will do,far more to kill oil demand than any EV, or fleets of EVs ever could.

    Either way, the oil cartels will no have trouble selling their product, EVs or no.

  4. Cloggie on Fri, 16th Feb 2018 4:36 pm 

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/16/us-renewables-account-18-energy-mix-hot-heels-nuclear/

    18% US electricity renewable, a 14% growth in 2017.
    This number will keep growing.

  5. Dredd on Fri, 16th Feb 2018 4:47 pm 

    “reduce global demand for oil”

    Let’s hope it does not reduce the global demand for oil going away for good.

    Some scientists are not focusing enough on the problem’s nuances (Hot, Warm, & Cold Thermal Facts: Tidewater-Glaciers – 4).

  6. MASTERMIND on Fri, 16th Feb 2018 4:48 pm 

    Clogg

    That is total bullshit fake news! Cleantechia of course is going to lie..You idiot And its not going to keep growing for long because we are going to have an economic collapse soon.

    https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/index.php

  7. MASTERMIND on Fri, 16th Feb 2018 4:49 pm 

    CLogg

    UC Davis Peer Reviewed Study: It Will Take 131 Years to Replace Oil with Alternatives (Malyshkina, 2010)
    http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es100730q

    University of Chicago Peer Reviewed Study: predicts world economy unlikely to stop relying on fossil fuels (Covert, 2016)
    https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.1.117

    Solar and Wind produced less than one percent of total world energy in 2016 – IEA WEO 2017
    https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2017.pdf

    Fossil Fuel Share of Global Energy since 1990 – BP 2017
    https://imgur.com/k7VecMq

    You live in a total fantasy land…LOL one percent total energy from solar and wind..After forty years and billions wasted! A total scam! LOL

  8. Davy on Fri, 16th Feb 2018 5:16 pm 

    Doesn’t that feel better weasel? You actually made a normal comment. You were on topic and respectfully.

  9. Anonymouse1 on Fri, 16th Feb 2018 5:46 pm 

    Hey dumbass, why are still here and not at the county mental health facility where you belong?

    Dumbass.

  10. TommyWantsHisMommy on Fri, 16th Feb 2018 6:06 pm 

    It isn’t happening around here unless gas prices are $5+ /gallon… I rarely see electric vehicles (lots of Priuses but very few pure electrics) or hear of anyone talking about making the switch to electric. Petrol needs to skyrocket before people will make a change. Until then its pickup trucks, dirt roads and country music.

  11. peakyeast on Fri, 16th Feb 2018 8:55 pm 

    I wonder if extraction of copper, lithium and other materials are going to require more or less energy as the electric cars are going to reduce consumption.

  12. Anonymouse1 on Fri, 16th Feb 2018 9:54 pm 

    Questions like yours PE are based on the assumption that the masters of the universe are even trying to save energy and materials in the first place(with EVs in this case). Or that they believe or even really care if the few paltry operational advantages EVs have would actually translate to anything like a net savings in the real world. If experience teaches us anything about how this economic actually operates, its is that any time resources happen to be freed up in one area, the ‘system’ easily, and seamlessly, finds new uses to allocate the ‘savings’ for.

  13. MASTERMIND on Fri, 16th Feb 2018 10:07 pm 

    If a bunch of people buy EV’S and it decreases oil demand. The price of oil will come down and people who use oil will buy more of it and the demand and price will go right back up again. Jevon’s Paradox…

  14. MASTERMIND on Fri, 16th Feb 2018 10:08 pm 

    Since you can’t take an EV out of the city. They are pretty much worthless to most people..Only the idiots in the media love them because they are a bunch of tech nerd faggots.

  15. Cloggie on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 2:07 am 

    German cities are expected to become no-go area’s for diesel cars:

    http://www.spiegel.de/auto/aktuell/abgasskandal-fahrverbote-fuer-dieselfahrzeuge-in-staedten-koennten-bald-kommen-a-1193888.html

    German High Court will decide coming Thursday.

    Another nail in the coffin of the fossil-powered car and massive direct support for the rise of the (autonomous) e-vehicle.

  16. Cloggie on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 3:11 am 

    Another long post with a lot of links doesn’t appear in the thread. Now I need to cut it in pieces again and rewrite it to avoid “double posting” errors. Very annoying. Lines from the Dutch anthem will be used to fool the forum software. Please ignore.

    Wrap up renewable good news:

    Wilhelmus van Nassouwe
    ben ik, van Duitsen bloed.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/16/hywind-scotland-worlds-first-floating-wind-farm-performing-better-expected/

    Good news for deep water offshore wind power, immensely expanding implementation possibilities. No longer a need for 80 m or so monopiles. A 1 km long anchor cable will do as well.

    Near-shore offshore has a capacity factor of ca. 50%. Deep water increases that to 60%.

    As a reminder: a capacity factor of 50% means that a present day standard 6 MW offshore windturbine produces 3 MW on average 24/7/365.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/16/us-renewables-account-18-energy-mix-hot-heels-nuclear/

    den vaderland getrouwe
    blijf ik tot in den dood.

    With renewable electricity at 18% in the US, it is now approaching the nuclear installed base from behind.

    [part 1]

  17. Cloggie on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 3:12 am 

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/16/100-renewable-electricity-worldwide-new-cost-effective-reality/

    Een Prinse van Oranje
    ben ik, vrij, onverveerd,

    More support for the 100%-renewable-energy-is-possible thesis. Culprit this time: study of the Lappeenranta University of Technology in Finland. Full study:

    http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Full-Study-100-Renewable-Energy-Worldwide-Power-Sector.pdf

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/15/eviation-aircraft-planning-bringing-9-seat-electric-airplane-market-2021-following-closing-battery-supply-agreement-kokam/

    den Koning van Hispanje
    heb ik altijd geëerd.

    [part 2]

  18. Cloggie on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 3:14 am 

    Electric flying now for 9 seats (Israel/South-Korea).

    In Godes vrees te leven
    heb ik altijd betracht,

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/15/global-wind-installations-reach-52-5-gw-2017-brings-total-539-5-gw/

    New 2017 installed wind capacity: 52 GW, or 10% growth. Do this for 30-50 years and you have your renewable energy base.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/02/14/glasspoint-completes-four-blocks-1-gw-miraah-solar-plant-inaugurates-project/

    daarom ben ik verdreven,
    om land, om luid gebracht.

    Nowhere in the Arab world there is much fancy to return to a camel-based economy after the oil age. Here another completed 1 GW PV-plant in Oman.

    [part 3]

  19. TheNationalist on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 4:43 am 

    Don’t let them get you down Greggy and Masterbatemind:
    A truly Canadian Apology to the USA, courtesy of Rick Mercer from This Hour Has 22 Minutes, CBC Television:

    Hello. I’m Anthony St. George on location here in Washington.

    On behalf of Canadians everywhere I’d like to offer an apology to the United States of America. We haven’t been getting along very well recently and for that, I am truly sorry. I’m sorry we called George Bush a moron. He is a moron, but it wasn’t nice of us to point it out. If it’s any consolation, the fact that he’s a moron shouldn’t reflect poorly on the people of America. After all, it’s not like you actually elected him.

    I’m sorry about our softwood lumber. Just because we have more trees than you, doesn’t give us the right to sell you lumber that’s cheaper and better than your own. It would be like if, well, say you had ten times the television audeince we did and you flood our market with great shows, cheaper than we could produce. I know you’d never do that.

    I’m sorry we beat you in Olympic hockey. In our defence I guess our excuse would be that our team was much, much, much, much better than yours. As word of apology, please accept all of our NHL teams which, one by one, are going out of business and moving to your fine country.

    I’m sorry about our waffling on Iraq. I mean, when you’re going up against a crazed dictator, you want to have your friends by your side. I realize it took more than two years before you guys pitched in against Hitler, but that was different. Everyone knew he had weapons.

    I’m sorry we burnt down your White House during the War of 1812. I see you’ve rebuilt it! It’s very nice.

    I’m sorry for Alan Thicke, Shania Twain, Celine Dion, Loverboy, that song from Seriff that ends with a really high-pitched long note. Your beer. I know we had nothing to do with your beer, but we feel your pain.

    And finally on behalf of all Canadians, I’m sorry that we’re constantly apologizing for things in a passive-aggressive way which is really a thinly veiled criticism. I sincerely hope that you’re not upset over this. Because we’ve seen what you do to countries you get upset with.

    For 22 minutes, I’m Anthony St. George, and I’m sorry.

  20. Davy on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 5:06 am 

    “With renewable electricity at 18% in the US, it is now approaching the nuclear installed base from behind.”
    Neder, how much of that is wind and solar? You do the same with Europe but then talk about renewables. Many times you like to mix people up with electricity and primary power deal. You do this because you are cheerleading.

  21. Davy on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 5:08 am 

    “More support for the 100%-renewable-energy-is-possible thesis.”

    It is possible like peace on earth but will likely never happen for 1000 reasons many of which are physics and math related.

  22. Davy on Sat, 17th Feb 2018 5:18 am 

    Nationalist, the point is we criticize ourselves too. We are an open and free nation and we are hyper critical about ourselves. We have hardcore flag waivers but fewer of them every year. What I hate about Canadians and Australians is that is about all they do is point fingers at the Americans. They have a part to play in all this. The Anglos in GB are better about it maybe because you were bigger asswipes than the Americans at one time and now you need us in many ways. I like English generally. I have been over there many times. Fun people with great life. Canadians on the other hand are backstabbing slap you on the back types. To your face they love you but turn around and it is a knife in the back. I don’t know Australians well but the more I see of people like dooma and a few others the less of an opinion I have of that place. The US is going down the drain. We are becoming a horrible nation but you fucks are too and you are part of it pointing fingers at us like it is our fault the friggen ship is sinking. No shit the ship is sinking this is what happens to late term civilizations. We can point fingers all the way back to the Eurotards and your GB for all the violence you started way way back when.

  23. Kenz300 on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 12:09 pm 

    Two-thirds of world’s new energy capacity in 2016 was renewable: IEA
    http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1113115_two-thirds-of-worlds-new-energy-capacity-in-2016-was-renewable-iea

  24. Kenz300 on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 12:10 pm 

    Electric 🙂
    No stopping at gas stations, no oil changes, less over all maintenance, no emissions, no noise, less stress.
    Leave home in the morning with a full charge.
    Electric cars, electric trucks ,electric boats, electric scooters, electric bikes, electric lawn mowers, electric snow blowers and electric tools.
    The future is electric. Fossil fuels are the past.

  25. Anonymouse1 on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 1:50 pm 

    Dumbass parrot-bot

  26. GregT on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 4:33 pm 

    Sarcasm doesn’t really hurt my feelings – does it hurt yours?

    A truly Canadian Apology to the USA, courtesy of Rick Mercer from This Hour Has 22 Minutes, CBC Television:

    https://kathypaynter.com/tag/canadian-jokes/

    Rick Mercer can definitely be over the top sometimes, but he is after all, a comedian.

  27. GregT on Sun, 18th Feb 2018 5:02 pm 

    Women in general, tend to get all sensitive and emotional, and can’t take sarcasm very well at all.

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