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Page added on July 25, 2016
Electric Cars: Massive Hype, Limited Value
Highlights
- Electric cars are generating an enormous amount of hype which attracts a lot of direct and subsidized investment
- But an optimistic estimate of the potential value of broadly deployed electric cars is less than $400/car/year
- This is about one third of the cost disadvantage of a future electric car with an 80 kWh battery pack costing $100/kWh
- Several more practical pathways to electric car advantages exist
Introduction
In this article, the term “electric car” will refer to a 100% electric battery-powered car. Hybrids, plug-in hybrids and small electric vehicles (all of which I think have more potential than electric cars) as well as fuel cell vehicles (still to early to call) are not included.
My general concern with electric cars is that they will end up with a very low value to hype ratio compared to other pathways towards a sustainable future. Cars have always been able to stir emotions and electric cars can further augment this natural emotional response with all the emotion involved in the green movement. The result is an enormous amount of hype which attracts a lot of attention, initiative and investment. Given our massive 21st century sustainability challenge of quadrupling the size of the global economy without killing our planet, we simply cannot afford misplaced hype on such a large scale.
For further clarity, this article will assess the advantages of electric cars, estimate the value of these advantages and discuss alternative pathways to achieve these advantages.
Direct advantages of electric cars
Compared to gasoline-powered cars, the only unquestionable direct advantages of electric cars are a reduced dependence on oil and lower (non-CO2) tailpipe emissions in cities. It is often stated that electric cars are cheaper to fuel and emit fewer greenhouse gasses than regular cars, but this is not generally true.
As calculated in this article, the actual fuel costs of future technologically mature electric cars will be similar to that of gasoline cars. The article also pointed out that the electricity mix of the largest car markets is such that efficient gasoline cars emit similar or less CO2 than electric cars. For example, the figure below implies that the new 55 MPG Prius would be a 2x better environmental choice than an electric car in China or India.
In the longer term, electricity carbon intensity in the largest car markets will have to reduce, but so will the fuel consumption (and associated emissions) of regular cars. The actual costs of extracting oil will also rise steadily over coming decades, but so will the cost of electricity from a greener generating fleet. It will therefore be a long time before electric cars are generally cheaper and less carbon intensive to fuel than gasoline-powered cars.
Quantification of direct advantages
Displacing a gasoline car with a 100% electric car will prevent uneconomical wealth transfers from oil importers to oil exporters during oil price spikes. Of course, if all oil exporters invested these windfall profits efficiently (e.g. the Norwegian petroleum fund), the global effect of oil price spikes would be limited or even positive. Unfortunately, this is generally not the case and such large oil profits often finance wasteful extravagance, especially in OPEC nations.
It should also be mentioned that electricity consumed by electric cars can also be import-dependent. Regions such as Europe and Japan with a large share of electricity from imported natural gas, coal or uranium will therefore derive limited energy security benefits from electric cars.
A conservatively high estimate of the oil price buffer effect can therefore be made by subtracting the oil price that would result from an ideal market from the actual average oil price. The difference represents the uneconomical wealth transfer from oil importers to oil exporters due to the imperfect oil market. Based on historical data (below), this difference is about $20/barrel. If we assume a new electric car will displace 10000 miles/year (typical EV mileage) of 30 MPG gasoline consumption, this value comes to $159/year.
The value of zero tailpipe emissions comes in lower ($71/year) given the $9/barrel local air pollution oil externality estimated in a recent IMF working paper. However, this assumes that the electricity consumed by the electric car is completely clean, thus also making this a conservatively high estimate. In fact, debate is now intensifying in China about whether electric cars may actually worsen air quality. Recent research also suggests that particulate matter emissions from EVs are similar to those from gasoline cars due to their higher weight and the importance of non-exhaust emissions.
Alternative pathways to direct advantages
The direct advantages of electric cars mentioned above can arguably be achieved more efficiently through different pathways. Oil dependence (sensitivity to oil price spikes) can be reduced through changes in driving habits, efficiency and a wide variety of alternative fuels. As an example, stricter efficiency standards (or increased gasoline taxes) raising average fuel economy of new vehicles from 30 to 31 MPG would lead to an 8x greater reduction in oil consumption than current US sales of electric cars (below).
Local emissions can be reduced by the same factors and by implementing tolls or even car-free zones in selected areas. Such measures to reduce traffic volume would also address important external costs such as traffic accidents, congestion, road damages and non-tailpipe emissions which, in combination, are substantially more damaging than tailpipe emissions.
In the longer term, several pathways towards carbon neutral synthetic fuels exist. These fuels can be produced from excess electricity, various kinds of biomass, fossil fuel processing with CCS, or synergistic combinations of these fuels. They also offer cleaner combustion than conventional fuels and are much better suited for international trade than electricity. Efficient internal combustion engines (including hybrids) and fuel cells (if they can be made cheaply enough) can then power a carbon neutral transportation system across all transportation networks.
Battery electrics can make a great contribution in the form of small electric vehicles as discussed here, bringing a wide range of highly attractive benefits such as enhanced mobility to billions of poor people, much reduced congestion and great improvements in health. High market penetration of 100% electric cars will probably be restricted to the high-cost-low-volume luxury/performance segment where the costs of a large battery pack contributes a relatively small fraction of the total vehicle cost.
Indirect advantages of electric cars
Electric cars form an integral part of the future green energy vision where almost all energy comes from renewable sources (primarily intermittent wind and solar). Such an energy system will need a lot of energy storage and/or demand response which can then be partly done through smart charging of EVs.
People also generally associate the potential economic benefits of autonomous vehicles with electric cars. As mentioned in the earlier article, however, gasoline powered cars will derive similar, if not greater, advantages from a fully autonomous vehicle fleet.
Quantification of indirect advantages
One way to estimate the advantage of smart charging is based on savings from time-of-use charging schemes. Such schemes offer rates which are typically about 60% of the average for off-peak (night) electricity usage. Of course, on-peak rates are then higher, cancelling out some/most of these savings, but this will be ignored for the time being to get an optimistic estimate.
Assuming that all charging happens during off-peak hours, the average electricity price is $0.13/kWh and 10000 miles are covered per year at an efficiency of 300 Wh/mile, savings amount to $156/year.
Alternative pathways to indirect advantages
Smart charging of electric vehicles will be complex and costly when balancing wind and solar power where the electricity price is not necessarily lowest during a fixed time-window at night. Such a scenario will need very smart systems which can charge electric cars based on electricity price forecasts and vehicle usage patterns without causing any inconvenience to the driver. This will also require many additional public smart chargers to capitalize on times when electricity prices are lowest during the day when cars are not plugged in at home. Furthermore, for systems with a lot of solar PV in particular, the total system peak load will increase, thus requiring transmission and distribution upgrades.
As an alternative, the synfuel pathway described earlier can shave wind/solar peaks in a simple centralized manner. Particularly windy/sunny nations will also be able to conveniently export excess synfuels to other nations. There will be no need for complex smart charging networks and markets and also no need to build out costly additional distribution networks for distributed peak shaving through electric cars.
Conclusions
An optimistic estimate for the potential advantages that 100% electric cars can bring to the global economy is about $386/year per car. For perspective, this is about one third of the cost disadvantage calculated earlier for a future mass market electric car with an 80 kWh battery pack costing $100/kWh (fully installed).
It is therefore clear that, on a global scale, the potential positive impact of electric cars is marginal at best. Alternative technological pathways also exist through which this positive impact can arguably be achieved in a cheaper and much more practical manner.
The enormous hype surrounding electric cars and the associated initiative and investment it consumes are therefore quite worrying. We simply cannot afford to invest so heavily in technological pathways which are fundamentally unable to alleviate our 21st century sustainability crisis.
32 Comments on "Electric Cars: Massive Hype, Limited Value"
John on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 1:41 pm
Totally agree in the general theme of things….unless u have excess money…..on a good month by month government pension….forget it…another f’n waste of sustainable energy direction….
Maybe we should invest in an extension lead company or trip over charging wire injury insurance company….
John on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 2:18 pm
Oh…..I forgot to mention the number of road accidents electric vehicles could cause….cause u can’t hear the f’ers coming….
Anonymous on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 3:22 pm
There is little evidence that EV’s would cause significantly more accidents that oil-burners do just because they are quieter. Quiet cars, noisy cars, they all kill. After all, cars(oily cars) are 7th leading cause of preventable deaths now. Nor is anything to suggest they would cause less accidents either-they wont. IoW, an all-electric fleet would be just as efficient at killing humans, and other animals, as oil burners are.
John on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 3:47 pm
Can’t help u of u got funny ears then…..just be careful Anonymous!!!
Go Speed Racer on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 6:30 pm
Careful design of the gas powered car, is probly a better option than electric. For example, the OPOC engine would double fuel economy.
Check YouTube videos for OPOC engine.
Go Speed Racer on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 6:32 pm
Funny the lack of common sense. The electric cars
Are too quiet an should have artificial noise coming out of speakers.
shortonoil on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 7:35 pm
“Are too quiet an should have artificial noise coming out of speakers. “
Haven’t you ever seen a deer whistle? I’ve got one on my car after a big old buck did $2000 worth of customization to my front fender. Just make it a people&deer whistle and you have solved the problem. If that was the only problem with EVs we would all be driving quietly into the sunset. The idea has been around for 100 years.
Practicalmaina on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 7:58 pm
Short, no joke I thought of that as a product about 10 years ago, wish I had done something about it. I heard before gm shut down its original electric car program blind individuals who relied on hearing to navigate across streets had been struck, now a days it will be Pokémon go players. I wonder if ot was just propaganda back then?
Practicalmaina on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 7:58 pm
Short, no joke I thought of that as a product about 10 years ago, wish I had done something about it. I heard before gm shut down its original electric car program blind individuals who relied on hearing to navigate across streets had been struck, now a days it will be Pokémon go players. I wonder if ot was just propaganda back then?
Rick Bronson on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 8:24 pm
This author did not know what does it mean by 100 MPGe. Please read the below lines and then do the math.
100 MPGe means “the electricity produced in a power plant by burning 1 gallon of gas will power the vehicle for 100 miles”.
So Electric vehicles are 3 times more efficient than a gas-mobile that goes 30 – 35 MPG.
While Coal releases 50 % more carbon emissions than Oil, the electricity from Coal fired plant can power the vehicle for 200% (3 times) more distance
which makes an electric vehicle running on coal fired electricity lot more cleaner than a gas-mobile.
Besides 15% of the energy from Crude oil is used for refining. So if you have 100 barrels of Oil, you have to load 15 barrels in furnace for refining and only the other 85 barrels as feedstock to produce various fractions.
Rick Bronson on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 8:29 pm
Is the author expecting us to keep using gas guzzlers and pollute the planet.
The 1st 6 months of this year are the warmest on record compared to the similar month in any other year.
I am sure being a Norwegian, he must have observed the rising sea level.
Global electric/plugin vehicle usage has already crossed 1.5 million in less than 6 years without including those Low Speed EVs which number another 1 million plus.
What happens when there is Peak Oil, are we still going to fight like dogs for the Oil. Already the conventional crude has peaked and all the new supplies are coming from Shale and Sands Oil.
Go Speed Racer on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 9:09 pm
The increasing temperatures don’t matter.
My 1977 Lincoln Continental Mark V has got
An air conditioner that blows snowflakes at you.
An the 469 cubic inch engine has pistons
the size of coffee cans.
An it’s got AM FM and 8-track with rear fader
speakers and an electric antenna.
And seats softer than a LA z Boy recliner, and they are electric too.
And enough new car smell to feel like a
heroin addict.
And the extra reserve fuel tank in the
trunk so it takes 46 gallons to fill er up.
So why oh why should u worry about a
couple degrees of temperature.
Just crank up the A/C and some John Denver
8-track tapes.
Rick Bronson on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 9:55 pm
Very funny Go Speed Racer.
If people want more noise in a car, I would suggest them to go for Diesel.
Wow, what a power, what a wonderful smell and what a noise.
If anyone wants even more power, they should go for External Combustion Engine running on Coal and that can make all sounds like a Steam Locomotive.
And there is no cartel for Coal like OPEC is for Oil, so we can keep driving for centuries.
Go Speed Racer on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 10:26 pm
I think we could have steam powered cars which run on coal. The firebox would be at the passenger side. So the passenger has to sit in back and hand you the wood.
These vehicles could also run on garbage.
Old pizza boxes, worn out running shoes, and empty plastic bottles would keep you flying down the highway at 55 mph.
Of course in a dense city area, if these cars got too popular we might need
World war 2 gas masks. Still we would no longer have landfill since we could burn it all in our cars.
makati1 on Mon, 25th Jul 2016 10:45 pm
More attempts to keep some form of BAU. But, after my recent reminder on my visit to the States, the US is domed without some form of personal transport, and feet or bikes will not get you 10 miles+ to work every day through all kinds of weather, or 8+ miles to the local grocery or … I guess the Us is doomed. So be it.
GregT on Tue, 26th Jul 2016 1:05 am
“What happens when there is Peak Oil, are we still going to fight like dogs for the Oil.”
Of course we will. Without enough oil, there won’t be enough food to feed us all.
Kenz300 on Tue, 26th Jul 2016 8:35 am
Koch brothers funding an assault on electric vehicles……
Koch Brothers EXPOSED: 2014 • FULL DOCUMENTARY FILM • BRAVE NEW FILMS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2N8y2SVerW8&spfreload=10
Koch Brothers Continue to Fund Climate Change Denial Machine, Spend $21M to Defend Exxon
http://ecowatch.com/2016/06/22/koch-defends-exxon/
Big Coal Funded This Prominent Climate Change Denier, Docs Reveal
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/roy-spencer-peabody-energy_us_57601e12e4b053d43306535e
Kenz300 on Tue, 26th Jul 2016 8:38 am
Electric cars, trucks, bicycles and mass transit are the future…..fossil fuel ICE cars are the past…………..
Think teen agers vs your grand father…………………. cell phones vs land lines…….
NO EMISSIONS……..climate change is real………
Save money……no stopping at gas stations…..no oil changes……..less overall maintenance……
The Kochs Are Plotting A Multimillion-Dollar Assault On Electric Vehicles
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/koch-electric-vehicles_us_56c4d63ce4b0b40245c8cbf6
Inside the Koch Brothers’ Toxic Empire | Rolling Stone
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/inside-the-koch-brothers-toxic-empire-20140924?page=2
Kenz300 on Tue, 26th Jul 2016 8:44 am
Energy Collective………….part of the Koch funded Climate Change disinformation propaganda machine……..
Bob Inget on Tue, 26th Jul 2016 12:27 pm
I’ve rediscovered driving fun since buying a
80 mile range E Golf. Playing with regeneration
(single pedal driving) takes the drudge out of
heavy traffic. (EV’s get Better Milage in town).
There are so many quiet cars in my city, folks
have learned not to depend on hearing alone.
(it’s only low speed that matter to most pedestrians) I’ve never use the horn except to
see what is sounded like.
I’ve no idea how much of my solar power I use
in my daily recharge, it ain’t much compared to
refrigeration or stand-by solar hot water or
cooking or ground sourced heat and air conditioning.
My fossil fuel bill has gone from average of $90.00 to nada a month even when I try to beat my old record of zero to 60. (9.2 seconds) Solo,
with AC or heaters off.
Driving longer distances is a challenging, I’ll admit. I belong to two app driven plug-in clubs.
Often I need to ‘tack’ like a sailboat getting to a
destination hours later then driving ICE.
(most big shopping centers have free public stage 2 charging if you buy something)
I see VW, GM,Toyota are offering almost 200 mile ranges next year. This will help with tacking out of the way from one fast charge station to another. In the mean-time, just test drive EV’s
you’ll never go back. Check out that tax Credit.
$7,000. USED low milage EV’s should flood markets in 2017, Great for commutes under 35 miles each way or longer if you get a charger at work.
PracticalMaina on Tue, 26th Jul 2016 12:40 pm
I am seriously considering depowering alternator field coils while driving. Some people have reported a savings of 10% in their fuel economy. I have a small solar panel and 12-18v charge controller, and now just need a deep cycle battery, and maybe find out a way to re-power the alternator when breaking to get a kind of regenerative breaking. This is my solution to limping a little old ice a little bit longer until hopefully evs become more affordable to a cheap sob like me-chargers become more prevalent..ect. The DOE and Tesla are both making significant promises in battery tech. I am so stingy though, I may have to wait for an ev bike, that way I dont have to worry about heat draining my evs batterys in the winter…
Though I have some ideas how they could fix that as well.
Bob Inget on Tue, 26th Jul 2016 3:37 pm
All those bike EV batteries need (in winter) is a full charge every three weeks or so. If that’s too much trouble, move to Hawaii.
My e Golf manual warns about leaving battery
discharged longer then eight weeks.
Just leave it plugged in while parked. If I were to leave town longer then a month i would ask someone to simply open a door activating
the charger.
Kevin Cobley on Tue, 26th Jul 2016 8:58 pm
No cars are sustainable, the “electric car” still consumes a huge amount of road space which has to be built and maintained along with all the other car infrastructure, the faster a car goes the more road space it consumes, that’s why peak hour traffic moves at a crawl.
The “electric car” has no future the resources required for a mass build out of a billion vehicles just don’t exist.
MikeX11.2 on Tue, 26th Jul 2016 10:01 pm
Typical Exxon horseshit.
They said hybrids wouldn’t save you money too.
I’ve driven my Honda Insight 50,000 miles and Saved $4,000. So, at 150,000 miles the car will pay 50% of the price of the car. At 300,000, it will pay for the WHOLE CAR.
The gas car and truck is killing the planet, and our species, so, the electric car is the only option, other than no car.
2016 is still running as the HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD.
The last 14 months have been the Hottest months ever recorded.
So, yes, climate scientists were wrong. They Underestimated the rate of change of Global Warming.
We need to cut our carbon usage to Zero as if it was a National Emergency, because it is. This is our generations World War III.
antaris on Tue, 26th Jul 2016 10:24 pm
Mike I drive an I miev. It is almost at 60,000 km so I have not purchased close to 5,000 litres of gas based on the last Corolla I drove. The battery seams to hold the charge the same as new. May it keep the charge in 4 1/2.years when gas may be hard to find. Here in bc we should still have hydro electric.
Anonymous on Tue, 26th Jul 2016 10:42 pm
Good for you antaris. However, Im sure you realize that the entire electrical grid, along with the road system, in bc, and everywhere else, is built and maintained with oil\gas. Not electricity. no matter how its generated. IF we could master the trick of using that hydro-electricity to firstly, maintain the grid itself, THEN use the power to build an entire road system(and hey maybe the mievs too), then you and your miev would have nothing to worry about.
Except that’s not remotely the case is it? Explain how BC, with all its hydro power, has is cities and towns in a perpetual haze of smog. Except of course for the days when the wind blows it to that magical place called ‘away’ (IE China, or the uS), then you pretend BC is ‘cleaner’ that everyone else. (its not).
Face it, when oil becomes too expensive to maintain car-dependency on continent-wide scales, then the EV will be just one more immobile heavy box on four slowly deflating wheels, even if electrical power is still be delivered in some capacity. At least EV owners might find an EVs battery salvageable for household power storage, at least until the designed-to-fail LION pack dies for good.
antaris on Tue, 26th Jul 2016 11:46 pm
Anon you are preaching to the choir here. My wife told me to wait ( buying an ev) and I said for what.
I got the ev because I wanted to build one 30 years ago but new then that it would be lacking.
Then 4 1/2 years ago I could buy what I could never have built. So now I am optimistic that it will last 5 years but not so optimistic about our energy future. When the heavy boxes stop moving, population will be in serious decline and ev batteries will rot where they were installed. Hopefully if I’m still alive at that point me and mine will be far enough away from the population to last longer.
Davy on Wed, 27th Jul 2016 6:11 am
I have a Jetta TDI since 2010. It is a great car with zero issues since I purchased it. I get around 42 on the highway. In the city the mileage drops into the low 30’s. The vehicle is strictly for commuting so I realize great mileage. I have a 2002 Toyota Tacoma pickup for small trips into the nearest town and to use around the farm. I have a 2001 Dodge dully with a Cummins diesel. It has a flat bed and it is for hauling animals in a trailer and big stuff on the flat bed. Both trucks were bought used so I did not contribute to new vehicle production emissions.
I am considering a Chevy Volt to replace the VW. The VW is part of the emissions scandal so I will be forced to be part of a buy back. I would rather keep the VW because it is a great car and serves its purposes. All my vehicles are paid for. I am considering the Volt because I intend to plug it into my solar system in my main barn which is under used. I powered my main barn with solar because it was close to the same price to run grid power to it. New poles and wire needed were going to be on me. We generally only commute once a week or two. I drive very little my wife does most of the driving. If I go to town it is with a list of places and things to do so my trip is as efficient as possible. I like the Volt because it also gives us the option of long trips without plug in. If I lived in a city I would consider an all-electric but in my situation I like the flex performance of the Volt.
I feel we have just a few years before fuel shortages set in. Yea, sounds funny huh we are in a glut now supposedly. But be patient the glut is a dangerous glut of destructive circumstances that will eventually converge with a decaying economy to leave us with a shortage of money, food, and fuel. It is hard to understand but it is a matter of decay from deflation and depletion. These things are not growth so eventually there is less of everything including alternatives.
I like the idea of having my Volt, which is used once or twice in a two week period, to be powered by my solar system. People who claim electric is saving money and CO2 are full of shit if they are plugged into the grid. Solar and wind are such a small contribution to the grid those who have electric cars and think they are saving the climate are misinformed, in denial, or probably both. It is far too late for the grid to transition to all alternative. It is not realistic to convert the entire grid to alternatives. Alternatives will not power our modern civilization which is in overshoot with consumption and population. The inputs to car production and the maintenance of the road system themselves are hugely polluting alone without the thought of the power itself.
I like the idea of the Volt because I have solar capacity to charge it. It gives me a leg up in the coming crisis period. That has value to me. In a value sense I will likely never recover the cost of the Volt even if I buy it used. I am looking at the value of transport for me in a rural location in the coming money, food, and fuel crisis just around the corner. I have reduced travel greatly because of AGW sacrifices. I don’t do fun trip anymore I do necessary trips only. My wife still does fun trips but she has reduced them greatly out of respect for my feeling on the issue. I hate cars and trucks for what they have done to our world but I am stuck using BAU to leave BAU. IOW I have no choice in the matter if I want to survive as I need to survive. When we have no cars society will have collapsed and there will be some new kind of arrangement with a much smaller population. The same is true with electricity. Fossil fuel cars and electricity are a foundational element of modern society without substitution. There will be no transition to “MOAR” with less only less.
Kenz300 on Wed, 27th Jul 2016 7:18 am
Save energy………save money………….
If you can’t take a bicycle, walk or use mass transit then an electric vehicle is a good choice………..
Climate Change is real….we all need to do our part…..
Cities need to be more bicycle friendly by providing safe walking and bicycle paths that connect homes, schools and work areas. There also needs to be more safe places to lock and store bicycles.
ICE — fossil fuel cars are the past……….walking, bicycles, mass transit and electric vehicles are the future………….
MikeX11.2 on Wed, 27th Jul 2016 12:23 pm
antaris, it goes without saying, you’re the real hero here.
I was tempted by the iMiev but Consumer Reports put me off the car because it said it’s got a terrible ride.
But, they’ve been an untrustable source when it comes to hybrids and EV’s. They have a real negative bone up their rear, about everything but the Prius.
I’ve driven a Prius, I thought the acceleration was painful. The Insight drove much better.
antaris on Wed, 27th Jul 2016 10:44 pm
The Archdruid has a good read tonight.
Kenz300 on Fri, 29th Jul 2016 4:17 am
VW should have focused more on ELECTRIC vehicles than TDI diesels — electric vehicles have NO EMISSIONS…….
Electric vehicles are the future………. Climate Change is real….. we need to deal with the cause (fossil fuels)
I guess there is no such thing as an ethical business…..
Business schools once taught a class called Business Ethics. It looks like Universities needs to bring back the Business Ethics classes……..
Electric cars, bicycles and mass transit are the future…..fossil fuel ICE cars are the past…………..
Think teen agers vs your grand father…………………. cell phones vs land lines…….
NO EMISSIONS……..climate change is real………
Save money……no stopping at gas stations…..no oil changes……..less overall maintenance……