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Electric Cars Could Cause Oil Market Disruption on Par With OPEC

The growth of battery-powered cars could be as disruptive to the oil market as the OPEC market-share war that triggered the price crash of 2014, potentially wiping hundreds of billions of dollars off the value from fossil fuel producers in the next decade.

About 2 million barrels a day of oil demand could be displaced by electric vehicles by 2025, equivalent in size to the oversupply that triggered the biggest oil industry downturn in a generation over the past three years, according to research from Imperial College London and the Carbon Tracker Initiative, a think tank, published Thursday. A similar 10 percent loss of market share caused the collapse of the U.S. coal mining industry and wiped more than a 100 billion euros ($108 billion) off the value of European utilities from 2008 to 2013, the report said.

Major oil companies are waking up to the potential disruption plug-in vehicles could have on their industry. BP Plc says electric vehicles, or EVs, could erase as much as 5 million barrels a day in the next 20 years, while analysts at Wood Mackenzie say they could erode as much as 10 percent of global gasoline demand over that time. Global oil demand could peak in as little as five years, according to Royal Dutch Shell Plc Chief Financial Officer Simon Henry.

By 2040 16 million barrels a day of oil demand could be displaced, rising to 25 million by 2050, a “stark contrast to the continuous growth in oil demand expected by industry,” according to the report. The impact on the oil industry could exceed price slump of 2014 to 2016 that “wiped hundreds of billions off capex,” Stefano Ambrogi, a spokesman for the Carbon Tracker Institute, said by e-mail.

The cost of EVs is already falling faster than previous forecasts and they could reach parity with conventional internal combustion vehicles by 2020, eventually saturating the passenger vehicle market by 2050, the report said.

EVs may take 19 to 21 percent of the road transport market by 2035, according to the researchers. That’s three times BP’s projection of 6 percent market share in 2035. By 2050, EVs would comprise 69 percent of the road-transport market, with oil-powered cars accounting for about 13 percent.


56 Comments on "Electric Cars Could Cause Oil Market Disruption on Par With OPEC"

  1. Apneaman on Fri, 3rd Feb 2017 12:12 pm 

    Kings of Cancer exposed again

    Big Oil braced for global warming while it fought regulations

    “A few weeks before seminal climate change talks in Kyoto back in 1997, Mobil Oil took out a bluntly worded advertisement in the New York Times and Washington Post.

    “Let’s face it: The science of climate change is too uncertain to mandate a plan of action that could plunge economies into turmoil,” the ad said. “Scientists cannot predict with certainty if temperatures will increase, by how much and where changes will occur.”

    One year earlier, though, engineers at Mobil Oil were concerned enough about climate change to design and build a collection of exploration and production facilities along the Nova Scotia coast that made structural allowances for rising temperatures and sea levels.

    “An estimated rise in water level, due to global warming, of 0.5 meters may be assumed” for the 25-year life of the Sable gas field project, Mobil engineers wrote in their design specifications. The project, owned jointly by Mobil, Shell and Imperial Oil (a Canadian subsidiary of Exxon), went online in 1999; it is expected to close in 2017.”

    More egg on the face for the brainwashed denier crowd. They’ll just double down, as per usual for humans. Three little words can make that ever more taxing cognitive dissonance go away – I was wrong.

  2. Apneaman on Fri, 3rd Feb 2017 12:15 pm 

    Thanks Germans, ya sneaky bastards.

    VW patriarch says ex-CEO knew about emissions cheating: report

  3. Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Feb 2017 2:59 pm 

    Thanks Germans, ya sneaky bastards.
    “You should be ashamed of yourself”

    You are such a pathetic hypocritical clown, you cancer monkey from the Alberta oil patch and car parts salesman. How many million ton of CO2 have you on your consciousness?

    CO2/Capita [ton/year]


    It was just another opportunity for outright looting: $15B for 1 million ton cheated CO2 or $15,000 per ton, of $15,-/kg which is insane.

    F* you, skunk.

  4. Apneaman on Fri, 3rd Feb 2017 3:52 pm 

    Holy fuck hysterical clog. Did you skip your meds again old man? Now you know what the Dr said about that – one more time and you’re back to the geriatric psych ward until you calm down again.

    Somebody call nurse Ratchet…clogO is spazzing again.

    Medication time it’s medication time.

  5. John Kintree on Sat, 4th Feb 2017 9:22 am 

    There was recent news that the price of EV batteries has declined about 80% since 2010, close to $1,000 per kWh then, and about $227 per kWh in 2016.

    Tesla claims it had the cost down to about $190 per kWh in early 2016, and may push it down another 30% ahead of their Model 3.

    Boogers though, as electric vehicles begin to seriously reduce the demand for oil, the reduced demand for oil places downward pressure on the price of oil, which helps maintain the demand for oil.

    Personally, I would like to see 250 million personally owned gasoline powered vehicles in the United States replaced with 50 million shared, self-driving EVs. Oh, you can’t always get what you want.

  6. Kenz300 on Sun, 5th Feb 2017 2:13 pm 

    The future is electric. No emissions.

    The Kochs Are Plotting A Multimillion-Dollar Assault On Electric Vehicles
    Inside the Koch Brothers’ Toxic Empire | Rolling Stone

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