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BP Says Peak Oil Demand May Occur Post-2050, Plans to Increase Production


In the wake of the expected growth trends set out by its energy outlook, BP plc revealed in its latest strategy update that it anticipates production to increase by an average of 5 percent per year from 2016 to 2021.

BP Group production, which includes BP’s share of production from Rosneft, is expected to be around 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) by 2021, the energy major said in a Feb. 28 company statement.

According to BP:

  • six projects began production in 2016
  • seven projects are scheduled to come online in 2017
  • nine projects are expected to come on-stream between 2018 to 2021

The projects coming online in 2016 and 2017 are said to be on track to deliver 500,000 boepd in new production capacity by the end of this year. Production ramping up from new upstream projects is expected to deliver a material improvement in BP’s operating cash flow through the second half of 2017, BP said.

“While always maintaining our discipline on costs and capital, BP is now getting back to growth – today, over the medium term and over the very long term,” BP Chief Executive Bob Dudley said in a company statement.

Oil Demand May Not Begin to Fall Until Second Half of Century

Oil demand may not begin to fall until the second half of the century, according to BP plc’s Energy Outlook, which was released at the end of January.

“If, for example, global GDP growth turns out stronger than a simple extrapolation would imply, or road vehicle efficiency improves less quickly, plausible scenarios suggest oil demand may not begin to fall until the second half of the century,” BP said in its 2017 Energy Outlook.

The oil major did admit however that other scenarios were possible, stating that a “simple extrapolation” of trends would suggest that oil demand may start to decline during the mid-2040s.

“But it might peak much sooner or later,” the report said.

BP’s Energy Outlook primarily considers a base case outlining the “most likely” path for global energy markets over the next 20 years, based on assumptions and judgements about future changes in policy, technology and the economy.

According to the report, demand for oil and other liquids is expected to increase throughout the outlook, growing from around 95 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2015 to 110 MMbpd by 2035.

“Transport demand accounts for around two thirds of that growth but … the stimulus from transport gradually fades,” Spencer Dale, BP’s group chief economist, said in the report.

“As a result, the overall growth of oil demand slows – from annual increases of around 1 million barrels a day in the first part of the outlook to closer to 0.4 [million] by the end. A consequence of the slowing impetus from transport demand is that the non-combusted use of oil particularly within the petrochemicals sector takes over as the main driver of growth by 2030,” he added.

An anticipated increase in electric cars is also expected to dampen the growth in oil demand but the scale of that offset is projected to be relatively modest.

“An additional 100 million electric cars in 2035 equates to somewhere between 1 and 1.5 million barrels a day of reduced oil demand,” Dale said.

“Even if electric vehicles were to grow far more rapidly than expected – 2 or 3 times more quickly – this would reduce oil demand only by around 3 or 4 million barrels a day in a market which is expected to expand by 15 million barrels a day,” he added.

Global Energy Demand to Grow by Around a Third

Global energy demand will grow by around a third by 2035, driven by a burgeoning Asian middle-class, according to BP’s base case. This increase is notably more sluggish than previous rises though, as Dale points out.

“Total energy demand is projected to average growth of around 1.3 percent per year, which … is significantly slower than that seen over the past 30 or 40 years,” he said.

In terms of the fuels meeting this increased demand, the outlook points to a continuing shift in the fuel mix, with non-fossil fuels providing half of the increase in primary energy.

“Even so, oil and gas, together with coal, continue to meet the majority of the world’s energy needs, accounting for more than three quarters of total energy supply in 2035,” Dale said.

“Natural gas grows more quickly than either oil or coal, overtaking coal to be the second largest fuel source by 2035,” he added.

Gas is projected to grow by around 1.6 percent per year, on average, over the outlook.

“Shale gas accounts for around two thirds of the increase in total production … driven by U.S. shale, which more than doubles, supported by the emergence of China as a sizeable shale gas producer,” Dale said.

Supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are likely to increase rapidly over the next 20 years, according to the outlook, with LNG expected to account for over half of all globally traded gas by 2035.

“The strong growth in LNG supplies is led by the US … and Australia … Asia remains a dominant market for LNG with increasing LNG import supporting strong growth in gas consumption across much of Asia including in China and India,” Dale said


10 Comments on "BP Says Peak Oil Demand May Occur Post-2050, Plans to Increase Production"

  1. ________________________________________ on Wed, 1st Mar 2017 10:28 pm 

    If I gave a shit what bp said I would be optimistic that global worming is real. I wish this site stopped with all the fake news. One article of real news per week is enough.

  2. Apneaman on Wed, 1st Mar 2017 11:22 pm 

    Methinks the retard doth protest too much.

    Oh you give a shit. Scared shitless.

  3. Apneaman on Wed, 1st Mar 2017 11:24 pm 

    Famine Warning Issued in Four Countries Following Worst African Droughts in Decades

    “Abnormally warm West Pacific sea surface temperatures — in part driven by a weak La Nina, in part driven by global warming — produced changes in atmospheric circulation that considerably reduced rainfall over Eastern and Southern Africa during 2016. As a result, places like Rwanda, Kenya, Eithiopia, South Sudan, and Somalia experienced some of their worst droughts in decades.”

  4. Jan on Thu, 2nd Mar 2017 2:12 am 

    There are 800 vehicles per 1,000 people in America, 500 in Ireland. China is now the largest car market in the world. I think it will sell 25 million vehicles this year. There is no reason to think China Vehicles density will not reach at least that of Ireland and probably much higher.

    China will be consuming 20Mbld by 2035.
    There are some Americans who become surprised when other people want to consume as much as they do.

  5. Cloggie on Thu, 2nd Mar 2017 4:08 am 

    BP says: people will be buying our products increasing so. As they say in the world of business: references of yourself and mum don’t count.

    Having said that, I do indeed think that mother nature has the potential to deliver what BP would like to see happening.


    Are we going to see peak oil = peak oil demand post 2050?


    Already we see that new renewable energy capacity is overshadowing all other new energy capacity and the gap will increase with every passing year. It won’t be long (5-20 years?) until renewable energy will not make itself being felt in notorious front-runners like Scotland, Denmark and Germany only, but world-wide as well.

    Peak oil (peak oil demand) somewhere between 2023-2037.

    The good thing as compared to the Heinberg-ASPO-2000 baloney is that we will be having enough fossil fuel to make the transition work. Here BP has a point.

  6. Cloggie on Thu, 2nd Mar 2017 5:39 am 

    Oil pipeline geopolitics:

    John McCain may have successfully blocked South-Stream a few years ago, connecting Russia with Bulgaria, the new Turk Stream pipeline is now finally going to be built after all. And the question is if it is really that different from South Stream. Just have a look at the map in the article linked above. If Turkey would indeed use its influence and exercise blackmail on Europe by threatening to block deliveries via the short pipeline leg over NW-Turkey (Thracia), it will be very easy to construct a new very short pipeline leg of 30 miles, diverting from Turkish territory and directly into Bulgaria and realize South Stream after all, once the current anti-Russian US vassals have been removed from power in Europe, probably after the crash (financial/civil war).

  7. Cloggie on Thu, 2nd Mar 2017 6:09 am 

    Jan, I was aware of that. The story was about Turk Stream / South Stream, the point of both was/is to circumvent Russia hostile-Ukraine and its old pipelines and keep delivering to lucrative European markets.

    Russia wants a European future, old globalist America wants to keep the Euro-bitch for itself. All in vain in the mid-term. Trump has indicated that he no longer wants to control Europe (via NATO).

    The waiting is to get the Merkel commie witch politically destroyed, probably by the German street, with a little help from Trump and/or Putin and/or the Autumn elections.

  8. penury on Thu, 2nd Mar 2017 8:43 am 

    Is anyone keeping a chart of BPs weekly forecasts of the end of oil? i think that stock sales and bottom line income is what creates most of these WAGS..

  9. Anonymous on Fri, 3rd Mar 2017 4:03 am 

    BP couldn’t predict one of its ultra-expensive state-of-the-art drilling platforms was about to explode. And, one would think, BP would had the inside track predicting that one, but no.

    That being the case, I think we can safely discount what BP thinks it is going to be doing 23 years from now.

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